andrew_gelman_stats andrew_gelman_stats-2010 knowledge-graph by maker-knowledge-mining

andrew_gelman_stats 2010 knowledge graph


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blogs list:

1 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-31-“Threshold earners” and economic inequality

Introduction: Reihan Salam discusses a theory of Tyler Cowen regarding “threshold earners,” a sort of upscale version of a slacker. Here’s Cowen : A threshold earner is someone who seeks to earn a certain amount of money and no more. If wages go up, that person will respond by seeking less work or by working less hard or less often. That person simply wants to “get by” in terms of absolute earning power in order to experience other gains in the form of leisure. Salam continues: This clearly reflects the pattern of wage dispersion among my friends, particularly those who attended elite secondary schools and colleges and universities. I [Salam] know many “threshold earners,” including both high and low earners who could earn much more if they chose to make the necessary sacrifices. But they are satisficers. OK, fine so far. But then the claim is made that “threshold earning” behavior increases income inequality. In Cowen’s words: The funny thing is this: For years, many cultural c

2 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-31-Type S error rates for classical and Bayesian single and multiple comparison procedures

Introduction: Type S error: When your estimate is the wrong sign, compared to the true value of the parameter Type M error: When the magnitude of your estimate is far off, compared to the true value of the parameter More here.

3 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-31-Obituaries in 2010

Introduction: David Blackwell . Julian Besag . Arnold Zellner . Benoit Mandelbrot and Hirotugu Akaike (late) . Alfred Kahn .

4 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-30-That puzzle-solving feeling

Introduction: Since this blog in November, I’ve given my talk on infovis vs. statistical graphics about five times: once in person (at the visualization meetup in NYC, a blog away from Num Pang!) and the rest via telephone conferencing or skype. The live presentation was best, but the remote talks have been improving, and I’m looking forward to doing more of these in the future to save time and reduce pollution. Here are the powerpoints of the talk. Now that I’ve got it working well (mostly by cutting lots of words on the slides), my next step will be to improve the interactive experience. At the very least, I need to allocate time after the talk for discussion. People usually don’t ask a lot of questions when I speak, so maybe the best strategy is to allow a half hour following the talk for people to speak with me individually. It could be set up so that I’m talking with one person but the others who are hanging out could hear the conversation too. Anyway, one of the times I gave th

5 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-29-Don’t try this at home

Introduction: Malecki’s right, this is very cool indeed. P.S. Is it really true that “4.5 million Parisians” ride the Metro every day? Even setting aside that not all the riders are Parisians, I’m guessing that 4.5 million is the number of rides, not the number of people who ride.

6 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-29-Brain Structure and the Big Five

Introduction: Many years ago, a research psychologist whose judgment I greatly respect told me that the characterization of personality by the so-called Big Five traits (extraversion, etc.) was old-fashioned. So I’m always surprised to see that the Big Five keeps cropping up. I guess not everyone agrees that it’s a bad idea. For example, Hamdan Azhar wrote to me: I was wondering if you’d seen this recent paper (De Young et al. 2010) that finds significant correlations between brain volume in selected regions and personality trait measures (from the Big Five). This is quite a ground-breaking finding and it was covered extensively in the mainstream media. I think readers of your blog would be interested in your thoughts, statistically speaking, on their methodology and findings. My reply: I’d be interested in my thoughts on this too! But I don’t know enough to say anything useful. From the abstract of the paper under discussion: Controlling for age, sex, and whole-brain volume

7 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-28-Brow inflation

Introduction: In an article headlined, “Hollywood moves away from middlebrow,” Brooks Barnes writes : As Hollywood plowed into 2010, there was plenty of clinging to the tried and true: humdrum remakes like “The Wolfman” and “The A-Team”; star vehicles like “Killers” with Ashton Kutcher and “The Tourist” with Angelina Jolie and Johnny Depp; and shoddy sequels like “Sex and the City 2.” All arrived at theaters with marketing thunder intended to fill multiplexes on opening weekend, no matter the quality of the film. . . . But the audience pushed back. One by one, these expensive yet middle-of-the-road pictures delivered disappointing results or flat-out flopped. Meanwhile, gambles on original concepts paid off. “Inception,” a complicated thriller about dream invaders, racked up more than $825 million in global ticket sales; “The Social Network” has so far delivered $192 million, a stellar result for a highbrow drama. . . . the message that the year sent about quality and originality is real enoug

8 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-27-Graph of the year

Introduction: From blogger Matthew Yglesias : There are lots of great graphs all over the web (see, for example, here and here for some snappy pictures of unemployment trends from blogger “Geoff”). There’s nothing special about Yglesias’s graph. In fact, the reason I’m singling it out as “graph of the year” is because it’s not special. It’s a display of three numbers, with no subtlety or artistry in its presentation. True, it has some good features: - Clear title - Clearly labeled axes - Vertical axis goes to zero - The cities are in a sensible order (not, for example, alphabetical) - The graphs is readable; none of that 3-D “data visualization” crap that looks cool but distances the reader from the numbers being displayed. What’s impressive about the above graph, what makes it a landmark to me, is that it was made at all. As noted in the text immediately below the image, it’s a display of exactly three numbers which can with little effort be completely presented and e

9 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-27-Alfred Kahn

Introduction: Appointed “inflation czar” in late 1970s, Alfred Kahn is most famous for deregulating the airline industry. At the time this seemed to make sense, although in retrospect I’m less a fan of consumer-driven policies than I used to be. When I was a kid we subscribed to Consumer Reports and so I just assumed that everything that was good for the consumer–lower prices, better products, etc.–was a good thing. Upon reflection, though, I think it’s a mistake to focus too narrowly on the interests of consumers. For example (from my Taleb review a couple years ago): The discussion on page 112 of how Ralph Nader saved lives (mostly via seat belts in cars) reminds me of his car-bumper campaign in the 1970s. My dad subscribed to Consumer Reports then (he still does, actually, and I think reads it for pleasure–it must be one of those Depression-mentality things), and at one point they were pushing heavily for the 5-mph bumpers. Apparently there was some federal regulation about how strong

10 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-26-Age and happiness: The pattern isn’t as clear as you might think

Introduction: A couple people pointed me to this recent news article which discusses “why, beyond middle age, people get happier as they get older.” Here’s the story: When people start out on adult life, they are, on average, pretty cheerful. Things go downhill from youth to middle age until they reach a nadir commonly known as the mid-life crisis. So far, so familiar. The surprising part happens after that. Although as people move towards old age they lose things they treasure–vitality, mental sharpness and looks–they also gain what people spend their lives pursuing: happiness. This curious finding has emerged from a new branch of economics that seeks a more satisfactory measure than money of human well-being. Conventional economics uses money as a proxy for utility–the dismal way in which the discipline talks about happiness. But some economists, unconvinced that there is a direct relationship between money and well-being, have decided to go to the nub of the matter and measure happiness i

11 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-25-Unlogging

Introduction: Catherine Bueker writes: I [Bueker] am analyzing the effect of various contextual factors on the voter turnout of naturalized Latino citizens. I have included the natural log of the number of Spanish Language ads run in each state during the election cycle to predict voter turnout. I now want to calculate the predicted probabilities of turnout for those in states with 0 ads, 500 ads, 1000 ads, etc. The problem is that I do not know how to handle the beta coefficient of the LN(Spanish language ads). Is there someway to “unlog” the coefficient? My reply: Calculate these probabilities for specific values of predictors, then graph the predictions of interest. Also, you can average over the other inputs in your model to get summaries. See this article with Pardoe for further discussion.

12 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-24-Foreign language skills as an intrinsic good; also, beware the tyranny of measurement

Introduction: This link on education reform send me to this blog on foreign languages in Canadian public schools: The demand for French immersion education in Vancouver so far outstrips the supply that the school board allocates places by lottery. But why? Is it because French is a useful employment skill? Because learning to speak French makes you a better person? Or is it because parents know intuitively what economists can show econometrically: peer effects matter. Being with high achieving peers raises a student’s own achievement level. . . . Several studies have found that Anglophones who can speak French enjoy an earning premium. The question is: do bilingual Anglophones earn more because speaking French is a valuable skill in the workplace? Or do they earn more because they’re on average smarter and more capable people (after all, they’ve mastered two languages)? And the blog features this comments like this : French immersion classes (as opposed to science, maths or any

13 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-23-Science, ideology, and human origins

Introduction: A link from Tyler Cowen led me to this long blog article by Razib Khan, discussing some recent genetic findings on human origins in the context of the past twenty-five years of research and popularization of science. I don’t know much about human origins (beyond my ooh-that’s-cool reactions to exhibits at the Natural History Museum, my general statistician’s skepticism at various over-the-top claims I’ve heard over the years about “mitochondrial Eve” and the like, and various bits I’ve read over the years regarding when people came over to Australia, America, etc.), but what particularly interested me about Khan’s article was his discussion about the various controversies among scientists, his own reactions when reading and thinking about these issues as they were happening (Khan was a student at the time), and the interaction between science and political ideology. There’s a limit to how far you can go with this sort of cultural criticism of science, and Khan realizes this

14 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-23-Capitalism as a form of voluntarism

Introduction: Interesting discussion by Alex Tabarrok (following up on an article by Rebecca Solnit) on the continuum between voluntarism (or, more generally, non-cash transactions) and markets with monetary exchange. I just have a few comments of my own: 1. Solnit writes of “the iceberg economy,” which she characterizes as “based on gift economies, barter, mutual aid, and giving without hope of return . . . the relations between friends, between family members, the activities of volunteers or those who have chosen their vocation on principle rather than for profit.” I just wonder whether “barter” completely fits in here. Maybe it depends on context. Sometimes barter is an informal way of keeping track (you help me and I help you), but in settings of low liquidity I could imagine barter being simply an inefficient way of performing an economic transaction. 2. I am no expert on capitalism but my impression is that it’s not just about “competition and selfishness” but also is related to the

15 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-22-The Jumpstart financial literacy survey and the different purposes of tests

Introduction: Mark Palko comments on the (presumably) well-intentioned but silly Jumpstart test of financial literacy , which was given to 7000 high school seniors Given that, as we heard a few years back, most high school seniors can’t locate Miami on a map of the U.S., you won’t be surprised to hear that they flubbed item after item on this quiz. But, as Palko points out, the concept is better than the execution: With the complex, unstable economy, the shift away from traditional pensions and the constant flood of new financial products, financial literacy might be more important now than it has been for decades. You could even make the case for financial illiteracy being a major cause of the economic crisis. But if the supporters of financial literacy need a good measure of how well we’re doing, they’ll need to find a better instrument than the Jump$tart survey. The ‘test’ part of the survey consists of thirty-one questions. That’s not very long but that many questions should be su

16 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-21-Instead of “confidence interval,” let’s say “uncertainty interval”

Introduction: I’ve become increasingly uncomfortable with the term “confidence interval,” for several reasons: - The well-known difficulties in interpretation (officially the confidence statement can be interpreted only on average, but people typically implicitly give the Bayesian interpretation to each case), - The ambiguity between confidence intervals and predictive intervals. (See the footnote in BDA where we discuss the difference between “inference” and “prediction” in the classical framework.) - The awkwardness of explaining that confidence intervals are big in noisy situations where you have less confidence, and confidence intervals are small when you have more confidence. So here’s my proposal. Let’s use the term “uncertainty interval” instead. The uncertainty interval tells you how much uncertainty you have. That works pretty well, I think. P.S. As of this writing, “confidence interval” outGoogles “uncertainty interval” by the huge margin of 9.5 million to 54000. So we

17 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-20-WWJD? U can find out!

Introduction: Two positions open in the statistics group at the NYU education school. If you get the job, you get to work with Jennifer HIll! One position is a postdoctoral fellowship, and the other is a visiting professorship. The latter position requires “the demonstrated ability to develop a nationally recognized research program,” which seems like a lot to ask for a visiting professor. Do they expect the visiting prof to develop a nationally recognized research program and then leave it there at NYU after the visit is over? In any case, Jennifer and her colleagues are doing excellent work, both applied and methodological, and this seems like a great opportunity.

18 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-20-More on why “all politics is local” is an outdated slogan

Introduction: Yesterday I wrote that Mickey Kaus was right to point out that it’s time to retire Tip O’Neill’s famous dictum that “all politics are local.” As Kaus points out, all the congressional elections in recent decades have been nationalized. The slogan is particularly silly for Tip O’Neill himself. Sure, O’Neill had to have a firm grip on local politics to get his safe seat in the first place, but after that it was smooth sailing. Jonathan Bernstein disagrees , writing: Yes, but: don’t most Members of the House have ironclad partisan districts? And isn’t the most important single thing they can do to protect themselves involve having pull in state politics to avoid being gerrymandered? That is “all politics is local,” no? There’s also a fair amount they can do to stay on the good side of their local party, thus avoiding a primary fight. And, even in an era of nationalized elections, there’s still plenty a Member of Congress can do to to influence elections on the margins, a

19 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-20-Costless false beliefs

Introduction: From the Gallup Poll : Four in 10 Americans, slightly fewer today than in years past, believe God created humans in their present form about 10,000 years ago. They’ve been asking the question since 1982 and it’s been pretty steady at 45%, so in some sense this is good news! (I’m saying this under the completely unsupported belief that it’s better for people to believe truths than falsehoods.) One way to think of this is that, for the overwhelming majority of people, a personal belief in young-earth creationism (or whatever you want to call it) is costless. Or, to put it another way, the discomfort involved in holding a belief that contradicts everything you were taught in school is greater than the discomfort involved in holding a belief that seems to contradict your religious values (keeping in mind that, even among those who report attending church seldom or never, a quarter of these people agree that “God created humans in their present form about 10,000 years ago”).

20 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-19-Google’s word count statistics viewer

Introduction: Word count stats from the Google books database prove that Bayesianism is expanding faster than the universe. A n-gram is a tuple of n words.

21 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-19-All politics are local — not

22 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-18-The kind of frustration we could all use more of

23 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-17-Why a bonobo won’t play poker with you

24 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-17-So-called fixed and random effects

25 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-17-Attractive models (and data) wanted for statistical art show.

26 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-16-“For individuals with wine training, however, we find indications of a positive relationship between price and enjoyment”

27 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-16-2500 people living in a park in Chicago?

28 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-15-Weakly informative priors and imprecise probabilities

29 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-14-Do we need an integrated Bayesian-likelihood inference?

30 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-13-“The truth wears off: Is there something wrong with the scientific method?”

31 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-13-$3M health care prediction challenge

32 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-12-Finite-population standard deviation in a hierarchical model

33 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-11-Compare p-values from privately funded medical trials to those in publicly funded research?

34 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-10-Who’s holding the pen?, The split screen, and other ideas for one-on-one instruction

35 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-09-“‘Why work?’”

36 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-09-Statistics gifts?

37 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-09-Solve mazes by starting at the exit

38 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-08-Blogging: Is it “fair use”?

39 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-07-Whassup with phantom-limb treatment?

40 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-07-The red-state, blue-state war is happening in the upper half of the income distribution

41 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-07-Some ideas on communicating risks to the general public

42 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-07-Diabetes stops at the state line?

43 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-07-Biostatistics via Pragmatic and Perceptive Bayes.

44 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-06-Followup questions

45 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-05-What do practitioners need to know about regression?

46 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-04-The Joy of Stats

47 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-04-Generalized Method of Moments, whatever that is

48 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-03-This is a footnote in one of my papers

49 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-03-Reinventing the wheel, only more so.

50 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-03-Is 0.05 too strict as a p-value threshold?

51 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-03-Getting a job in pro sports… as a statistician

52 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-02-Rational addiction

53 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-02-Automating my graphics advice

54 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-01-bayesglm in Stata?

55 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-01-Mapmaking software

56 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-01-In defense of jargon

57 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-30-Of psychology research and investment tips

58 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-30-I just skyped in from Kentucky, and boy are my arms tired

59 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-29-The mystery of the U-shaped relationship between happiness and age

60 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-29-Quality control problems at the New York Times

61 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-29-Panel Thurs 2 Dec on politics and deficit reduction in NYC

62 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-28-When Small Numbers Lead to Big Errors

63 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-27-One way that psychology research is different than medical research

64 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-27-Neumann update

65 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-26-One fun thing about physicists . . .

66 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-25-The von Neumann paradox

67 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-24-“But you and I don’t learn in isolation either”

68 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-24-Flawed visualization of U.S. voting maybe has some good features

69 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-23-Bayesian adaptive methods for clinical trials

70 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-22-Postdoc opportunity here at Columbia — deadline soon!

71 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-21-If your comment didn’t get through . . .

72 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-21-Data cleaning tool!

73 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-20-How to schedule projects in an introductory statistics course?

74 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-20-A Gapminder-like data visualization package

75 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-19-Just chaid

76 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-18-Prison terms for financial fraud?

77 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-18-Derivative-based MCMC as a breakthrough technique for implementing Bayesian statistics

78 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-17-ff

79 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-17-Clutering and variance components

80 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-16-Is parenting a form of addiction?

81 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-15-The two faces of Erving Goffman: Subtle observer of human interactions, and Smug organzation man

82 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-14-“Like a group of teenagers on a bus, they behave in public as if they were in private”

83 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-14-Statistics of food consumption

84 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-13-Time to apply for the hackNY summer fellows program

85 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-13-Ethical concerns in medical trials

86 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-12-The Wald method has been the subject of extensive criticism by statisticians for exaggerating results”

87 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-11-“Tiny,” “Large,” “Very,” “Nice,” “Dumbest”

88 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-11-Incumbency advantage in 2010

89 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-11-Data Visualization vs. Statistical Graphics

90 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-10-Translating into Votes: The Electoral Impact of Spanish-Language Ballots

91 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-10-Estimation from an out-of-date census

92 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-09-“Much of the recent reported drop in interstate migration is a statistical artifact”

93 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-09-Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics startup-math meetup

94 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-09-Kaggle: forecasting competitions in the classroom

95 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-08-Silly old chi-square!

96 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-08-Poli sci plagiarism update, and a note about the benefits of not caring

97 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-07-Challenges of experimental design; also another rant on the practice of mentioning the publication of an article but not naming its author

98 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-06-Quote of the day

99 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-06-Multilevel quantile regression

100 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-05-Journalism in the age of data

101 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-05-Consulting: how do you figure out what to charge?

102 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-05-2010: What happened?

103 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-04-Estimating the effect of A on B, and also the effect of B on A

104 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-03-Taleb + 3.5 years

105 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-03-Some thoughts on election forecasting

106 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-02-Fragment of statistical autobiography

107 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-01-Why it can be rational to vote

108 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-01-The placebo effect in pharma

109 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-01-Do you own anything that was manufactured in the 1950s and still is in regular, active use in your life?

110 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-01-Classic probability mistake, this time in the (virtual) pages of the New York Times

111 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-31-Wacky surveys where they don’t tell you the questions they asked

112 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-31-Two stories about the election that I don’t believe

113 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-31-Analyzing the entire population rather than a sample

114 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-30-“Presidential Election Outcomes Directly Influence Suicide Rates”

115 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-30-Sorry, Senator DeMint: Most Americans Don’t Want to Ban Gays from the Classroom

116 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-29-“Bluntly put . . .”

117 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-29-Could someone please set this as the new R default in base graphics?

118 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-28-World Economic Forum Data Visualization Challenge

119 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-28-The incoming moderate Republican congressmembers

120 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-28-My talk at American University

121 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-28-Matching for preprocessing data for causal inference

122 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-27-No matter how famous you are, billions of people have never heard of you.

123 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-27-It’s better than being forwarded the latest works of you-know-who

124 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-27-A use for tables (really)

125 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-26-Musical chairs in econ journals

126 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-25-Who gets wedding announcements in the Times?

127 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-25-Misunderstanding of divided government

128 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-25-Is instrumental variables analysis particularly susceptible to Type M errors?

129 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-25-In today’s economy, the rich get richer

130 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-24-Mankiw tax update

131 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-24-Erving Goffman archives

132 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-22-Politics is not a random walk: Momentum and mean reversion in polling

133 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-22-Graphing Likert scale responses

134 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-22-A redrawing of the Red-Blue map in November 2010?

135 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-21-Tenure-track statistics job at Teachers College, here at Columbia!

136 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-21-Forensic bioinformatics, or, Don’t believe everything you read in the (scientific) papers

137 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-21-Applied Statistics Center miniconference: Statistical sampling in developing countries

138 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-20-When Kerry Met Sally: Politics and Perceptions in the Demand for Movies

139 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-20-Sas and R

140 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-20-Ranking on crime rankings

141 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-20-Andy vs. the Ideal Point Model of Voting

142 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-19-There’s only one Amtrak

143 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-19-The violent crime rate was about 75% higher in Detroit than in Minneapolis in 2009

144 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-19-Analysis of survey data: Design based models vs. hierarchical modeling?

145 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-18-“I was finding the test so irritating and boring that I just started to click through as fast as I could”

146 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-18-Subtle statistical issues to be debated on TV.

147 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-18-Bike shelf

148 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-17-Joanne Gowa scooped me by 22 years in my criticism of Axelrod’s Evolution of Cooperation

149 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-17-Getting arm and lme4 running on the Mac

150 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-16-Mandelbrot and Akaike: from taxonomy to smooth runways (pioneering work in fractals and self-similarity)

151 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-15-Things we do on sabbatical instead of actually working

152 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-15-Story time

153 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-15-?

154 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-14-Trying to be precise about vagueness

155 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-14-Confusion about continuous probability densities

156 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-13-Randomized experiments, non-randomized experiments, and observational studies

157 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-13-Battle of the NYT opinion-page economists

158 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-12-Update on Mankiw’s work incentives

159 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-12-Election symposium at Columbia Journalism School

160 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-11-Mankiw’s marginal tax rate (which declined from 93% to 80% in two years) and the difficulty of microeconomic reasoning

161 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-11-How to think about Lou Dobbs

162 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-11-Herman Chernoff used to do that too; also, some puzzlement over another’s puzzlement over another’s preferences

163 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-10-Psychiatric drugs and the reduction in crime

164 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-10-Proposed new section of the American Statistical Association on Imaging Sciences

165 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-10-Bayes jumps the shark

166 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-09-What joker put seven dog lice in my Iraqi fez box?

167 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-08-More on those dudes who will pay your professor $8000 to assign a book to your class, and related stories about small-time sleazoids

168 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-08-Displaying a fitted multilevel model

169 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-07-There are never 70 distinct parameters

170 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-07-Peer pressure, selection, and educational reform

171 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-07-Fitting discrete-data regression models in social science

172 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-07-Contest for developing an R package recommendation system

173 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-06-Sociotropic Voting and the Media

174 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-06-More on the differences between drugs and medical devices

175 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-05-Racism!

176 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-05-Does posterior predictive model checking fit with the operational subjective approach?

177 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-04-“Who owns Congress”

178 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-04-U-Haul statistics

179 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-04-Rob Kass on statistical pragmatism, and my reactions

180 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-03-Suggested reading for a prospective statistician?

181 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-03-He doesn’t trust the fit . . . r=.999

182 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-03-Disconnect between drug and medical device approval

183 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-03-A question for psychometricians

184 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-02-“Regression to the mean” is fine. But what’s the “mean”?

185 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-02-Where do our taxes go?

186 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-02-The winner’s curse

187 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-01-Why Development Economics Needs Theory?

188 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-30-Nano-project qualifying exam process: An intensified dialogue between students and faculty

189 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-29-“Texting bans don’t reduce crashes; effects are slight crash increases”

190 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-29-Statistics and the end of time

191 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-29-Decision science vs. social psychology

192 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-29-Data visualization marathon

193 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-28-“Genomics” vs. genetics

194 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-28-This is a link to a news article about a scientific paper

195 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-28-Correlation, prediction, variation, etc.

196 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-28-A calibrated Cook gives Dems the edge in Nov, sez Sandy

197 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-27-what is = what “should be” ??

198 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-27-Who is that masked person: The use of face masks on Mexico City public transportation during the Influenza A (H1N1) outbreak

199 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-27-An interesting education and statistics blog

200 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-26-A simple semigraphic display

201 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-25-Clusters with very small numbers of observations

202 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-23-Thinking outside the (graphical) box: Instead of arguing about how best to fix a bar chart, graph it as a time series lineplot instead

203 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-23-Lowess is great

204 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-23-Doug Hibbs on the fundamentals in 2010

205 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-22-Philosophy of Bayes and non-Bayes: A dialogue with Deborah Mayo

206 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-22-Data Thief

207 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-21-“How segregated is your city?”: A story of why every graph, no matter how clear it seems to be, needs a caption to anchor the reader in some numbers

208 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-21-Discussion of the paper by Girolami and Calderhead on Bayesian computation

209 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-20-Paul Rosenbaum on those annoying pre-treatment variables that are sort-of instruments and sort-of covariates

210 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-20-Are the Democrats avoiding a national campaign?

211 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-18-Fiction is not for tirades? Tell that to Saul Bellow!

212 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-18-Continuing efforts to justify false “death panels” claim

213 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-17-Vote Buying: Evidence from a List Experiment in Lebanon

214 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-17-I can’t escape it

215 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-16-NSF crowdsourcing

216 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-16-Meet Hipmunk, a really cool flight-finder that doesn’t actually work

217 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-15-Electability and perception of electability

218 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-15-Advice that might make sense for individuals but is negative-sum overall

219 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-14-In an introductory course, when does learning occur?

220 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-14-Don’t look at just one poll number–unless you really know what you’re doing!

221 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-14-Data visualization at the American Evaluation Association

222 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-14-Battle of the Americans: Writer at the American Enterprise Institute disparages the American Political Science Association

223 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-13-Update on marathon statistics

224 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-13-Ross Ihaka to R: Drop Dead

225 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-12-GLM – exposure

226 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-12-Comparison of forecasts for the 2010 congressional elections

227 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-10-R vs. Stata, or, Different ways to estimate multilevel models

228 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-10-Fighting Migraine with Multilevel Modeling

229 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-09-This Friday afternoon: Applied Statistics Center mini-conference on risk perception

230 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-09-The future of R

231 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-09-Removing the blindfold: visualising statistical models

232 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-08-Tortoise is planning to vote Republican this year

233 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-08-The China Study: fact or fallacy?

234 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-08-Here’s how rumors get started: Lineplots, dotplots, and nonfunctional modernist architecture

235 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-07-The $900 kindergarten teacher

236 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-07-QB2

237 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-06-Inbox zero. Really.

238 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-05-A review of a review of a review of a decade

239 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-04-Question about standard range for social science correlations

240 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-04-Noooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

241 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-04-How does multilevel modeling affect the estimate of the grand mean?

242 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-04-Bayesian inference viewed as a computational approximation to classical calculations

243 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-03-Gladwell vs Pinker

244 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-02-R needs a good function to make line plots

245 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-02-Interactions of predictors in a causal model

246 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-02-Blending results from two relatively independent multi-level models

247 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-01-References on predicting elections

248 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-01-Ratios where the numerator and denominator both change signs

249 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-01-How does Bayes do it?

250 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-31-Somewhat Bayesian multilevel modeling

251 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-31-Predicting marathon times

252 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-30-Useful models, model checking, and external validation: a mini-discussion

253 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-30-Computer models of the oil spill

254 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-29-The Subtle Micro-Effects of Peacekeeping

255 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-29-Ethics and statistics in development research

256 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-29-ARM solutions

257 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-28-The mathematics of democracy

258 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-27-No radon lobby

259 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-27-Bafumi-Erikson-Wlezien predict a 50-seat loss for Democrats in November

260 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-26-Teaching yourself mathematics

261 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-25-Term Limits for the Supreme Court?

262 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-25-Modeling constrained parameters

263 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-25-Lauryn Hill update

264 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-25-Dodging the diplomats

265 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-24-Yet another Bayesian job opportunity

266 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-24-Kaggle forcasting update

267 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-24-Bizarre twisty argument about medical diagnostic tests

268 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-24-A new efficient lossless compression algorithm

269 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-23-Visualization magazine

270 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-23-More on those L.A. Times estimates of teacher effectiveness

271 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-23-Getting into hot water over hot graphics

272 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-22-Mister P gets married

273 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-21-Statoverflow

274 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-21-Estimating and reporting teacher effectivenss: Newspaper researchers do things that academic researchers never could

275 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-21-Busted!

276 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-20-Why I blog?

277 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-20-Some things are just really hard to believe: more on choosing your facts.

278 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-20-I think you knew this already

279 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-19-The “either-or” fallacy of believing in discrete models: an example of folk statistics

280 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-18-More forecasting competitions

281 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-18-DataMarket

282 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-17-Probability-processing hardware

283 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-17-Matching at two levels

284 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-17-Futures contracts, Granger causality, and my preference for estimation to testing

285 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-17-Deducer update

286 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-16-What I learned from those tough 538 commenters

287 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-16-EdLab at Columbia’s Teachers’ College

288 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-15-When Does a Name Become Androgynous?

289 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-14-Pourquoi Google search est devenu plus raisonnable?

290 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-13-Indiemapper makes thematic mapping easy

291 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-13-Arnold Zellner

292 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-12-Sloppily-written slam on moderately celebrated writers is amusing nonetheless

293 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-12-John McPhee, the Anti-Malcolm

294 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-12-Job openings in multilevel modeling in Bristol, England

295 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-12-Are all rich people now liberals?

296 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-11-Separating national and state swings in voting and public opinion, or, How I avoided blogorific embarrassment: An agony in four acts

297 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-11-Note to semi-spammers

298 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-11-Multilevel modeling in R on a Mac

299 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-10-The last great essayist?

300 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-10-The U.S. as welfare state

301 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-09-President Carter

302 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-09-Data Visualization

303 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-09-Besag

304 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-08-Turning pages into data

305 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-08-Angry about the soda tax

306 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-07-Mister P makes the big jump from the New York Times to the Washington Post

307 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-06-Proposal for a moratorium on the use of the words “fashionable” and “trendy”

308 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-06-Fake newspaper headlines

309 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-05-Update on state size and governors’ popularity

310 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-04-“To find out what happens when you change something, it is necessary to change it.”

311 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-04-Why does anyone support private macroeconomic forecasts?

312 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-04-That half-Cauchy prior

313 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-04-Bayesian models for simultaneous equation systems?

314 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-03-Nebraska never looked so appealing: anatomy of a zombie attack. Oops, I mean a recession.

315 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-03-MCMC in Python

316 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-03-Climate Change News

317 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-03-An Olympic size swimming pool full of lithium water

318 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-03-(Partisan) visualization of health care legislation

319 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-02-Reintegrating rebels into civilian life: Quasi-experimental evidence from Burundi

320 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-02-Information is good

321 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-02-A useful rule of thumb

322 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-01-Literature and life

323 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-31-Editing and clutch hitting

324 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-30-Why don’t we have peer reviewing for oral presentations?

325 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-30-Silly baseball example illustrates a couple of key ideas they don’t usually teach you in statistics class

326 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-29-When is expertise relevant?

327 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-29-Say again?

328 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-28-Colorless green, and clueless

329 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-27-Why don’t more medical discoveries become cures?

330 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-27-The Three Golden Rules for Successful Scientific Research

331 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-27-Nothing is Linear, Nothing is Additive: Bayesian Models for Interactions in Social Science

332 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-26-A very short story

333 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-25-The fundamental attribution error: A literary example

334 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-25-Darn that Lindsey Graham! (or, “Mr. P Predicts the Kagan vote”)

335 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-24-Differences in color perception by sex, also the Bechdel test for women in movies

336 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-23-Unhappy with improvement by a factor of 10^29

337 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-23-Popular governor, small state

338 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-22-Tenants and landlords

339 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-21-Roller coasters, charity, profit, hmmm

340 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-20-Burglars are local

341 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-19-David Blackwell

342 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-18-Predictive checks for hierarchical models

343 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-17-Tenure-track position at U. North Carolina in survey methods and social statistics

344 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-17-Distorting the Electoral Connection? Partisan Representation in Confirmation Politics

345 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-16-Wanted: Probability distributions for rank orderings

346 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-16-Gaydar update: Additional research on estimating small fractions of the population

347 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-16-Demographics: what variable best predicts a financial crisis?

348 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-15-“Gender Bias Still Exists in Modern Children’s Literature, Say Centre Researchers”

349 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-15-Quote of the day: statisticians and defaults

350 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-14-The statistics and the science

351 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-13-Statistical controversy regarding human rights violations in Colomnbia

352 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-13-Hey! Here’s a referee report for you!

353 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-12-Statistical fact checking needed, or, No, Ronald Reagan did not win “overwhelming support from evangelicals”

354 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-12-God, Guns, and Gaydar: The Laws of Probability Push You to Overestimate Small Groups

355 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-12-Dispute over counts of child deaths in Iraq due to sanctions

356 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-10-SeeThroughNY

357 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-10-Life in New York, Then and Now

358 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-10-Creating a good wager based on probability estimates

359 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-10-Cost of communicating numbers

360 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-09-Using ranks as numbers

361 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-09-Rasmussen sez: “108% of Respondents Say . . .”

362 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-08-“What do you think about curved lines connecting discrete data-points?”

363 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-08-Gratuitous use of “Bayesian Statistics,” a branding issue?

364 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-07-Note to “Cigarettes”

365 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-07-A note to John

366 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-07-A False Consensus about Public Opinion on Torture

367 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-05-Unrelated to all else

368 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-05-The greatest works of statistics never published

369 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-04-Inequality and health

370 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-03-Graphical presentation of risk ratios

371 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-02-The moral of the story is, Don’t look yourself up on Google

372 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-02-Note to the quals

373 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-01-Truth in headlines

374 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-01-MCMC machine

375 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-01-An (almost) testable assumption on dogmatism, and my guess of the answer, based on psychometric principles

376 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-30-You can’t put Pandora back in the box

377 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-30-Why is George Apley overrated?

378 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-30-Question & Answer Communities

379 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-29-Ya don’t know Bayes, Jack

380 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-29-How to grab power in a democracy – in 5 easy non-violent steps

381 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-28-Whassup with those crappy thrillers?

382 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-28-More on Bayesian deduction-induction

383 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-28-Advocacy in the form of a “deliberative forum”

384 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-27-Sampling rate of human-scaled time series

385 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-26-Tough love as a style of writing

386 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-26-Philosophy and the practice of Bayesian statistics

387 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-25-Classics of statistics

388 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-24-Sometimes the raw numbers are better than a percentage

389 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-24-PPS in Georgia

390 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-23-Scientists can read your mind . . . as long as the’re allowed to look at more than one place in your brain and then make a prediction after seeing what you actually did

391 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-23-More on those divorce prediction statistics, including a discussion of the innumeracy of (some) mathematicians

392 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-22-Seeking balance

393 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-22-Beach reads, Proust, and income tax

394 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-21-Why modern art is all in the mind

395 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-20-“People with an itch to scratch”

396 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-19-Unsurprisingly, people are more worried about the economy and jobs than about deficits

397 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-19-Paired comparisons

398 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-19-Further thoughts on happiness and life satisfaction research

399 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-18-Economic Disparities and Life Satisfaction in European Regions

400 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-18-Course proposal: Bayesian and advanced likelihood statistical methods for zombies.

401 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-17-“Rewarding Strivers: Helping Low-Income Students Succeed in College”

402 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-17-SAT stories

403 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-17-My proposal for making college admissions fairer

404 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-17-Drug testing for recipents of NSF and NIH grants?

405 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-16-RSS mess

406 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-16-Oil spill and corn production

407 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-16-A historical perspective on financial bailouts

408 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-15-What people do vs. what they want to do

409 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-15-Statistical analysis and visualization of the drug war in Mexico

410 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-14-“Too much data”?

411 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-14-Prior distribution for design effects

412 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-14-Is it 1930?

413 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-13-Silly Sas lays out old-fashioned statistical thinking

414 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-12-UnConMax – uncertainty consideration maxims 7 +-- 2

415 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-12-Reputational Capital and Incentives in Organizations

416 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-11-Free online course in multilevel modeling

417 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-10-What happens when the Democrats are “fighting Wall Street with one hand, unions with the other,” while the Republicans are fighting unions with two hands?

418 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-10-Hey, where’s my kickback?

419 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-09-Sof[t]

420 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-09-Both R and Stata

421 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-08-“Is the cyber mob a threat to freedom?”

422 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-08-“Extreme views weakly held”

423 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-08-Observational Epidemiology

424 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-07-Valencia: Summer of 1991

425 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-07-Pay for an A?

426 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-07-Mister P goes on a date

427 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-04-A Wikipedia whitewash

428 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-03-…pretty soon you’re talking real money.

429 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-03-More on that Dartmouth health care study

430 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-03-How can news reporters avoid making mistakes when reporting on technical issues? Or, Data used to justify “Data Used to Justify Health Savings Can Be Shaky” can be shaky

431 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-03-How best to learn R?

432 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-03-Estimates of war deaths: Darfur edition

433 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-02-The problem of overestimation of group-level variance parameters

434 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-01-Two Postdoc Positions Available on Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling

435 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-31-A data visualization manifesto

436 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-30-What Auteur Theory and Freshwater Economics have in common

437 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-30-Extended Binary Format Support for Mac OS X

438 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-29-Stupid legal crap

439 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-29-Roth and Amsterdam

440 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-28-Another argument in favor of expressing conditional probability statements using the population distribution

441 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-27-In Linux, use jags() to call Jags instead of using bugs() to call OpenBugs

442 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-27-Hype about conditional probability puzzles

443 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-26-Tumors, on the left, or on the right?

444 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-26-Intellectual property

445 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-26-If statistics is so significantly great, why don’t statisticians use statistics?

446 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-25-Looking for Sister Right

447 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-24-Blogging

448 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-23-The bane of many causes

449 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-23-Of home runs and grand slams

450 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-21-Careers, one-hit wonders, and an offer of a free book

451 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-20-Domain specificity: Does being really really smart or really really rich qualify you to make economic policy?

452 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-20-Boris was right

453 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-19-What do Tuesday’s elections tell us about November?

454 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-19-Updated solutions to Bayesian Data Analysis homeworks

455 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-19-Updated R code and data for ARM

456 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-18-What visualization is best?

457 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-18-The 1.6 rule

458 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-18-Breastfeeding, infant hyperbilirubinemia, statistical graphics, and modern medicine

459 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-17-Is chartjunk really “more useful” than plain graphs? I don’t think so.

460 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-16-Female Mass Murderers: Babes Behind Bars

461 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-16-Another update on the spam email study

462 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-14-Non-academic writings on literature

463 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-14-Felix Salmon wins the American Statistical Association’s Excellence in Statistical Reporting Award

464 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-14-Causal inference in economics

465 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-13-Visualization in 1939

466 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-13-Trips to Cleveland

467 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-12-Probability of successive wins in baseball

468 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-12-Alert: Incompetent colleague wastes time of hardworking Wolfram Research publicist

469 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-11-Update on the spam email study

470 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-11-Update on religious affiliations of Supreme Court justices

471 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-10-Two great tastes that taste great together

472 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-09-Special journal issue on statistical methods for the social sciences

473 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-09-Popper’s great, but don’t bother with his theory of probability

474 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-07-Jenny Davidson wins Mark Van Doren Award, also some reflections on the continuity of work within literary criticism or statistics

475 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-07-Environmentally induced cancer “grossly underestimated”? Doubtful.

476 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-07-Bayesian hierarchical model for the prediction of soccer results

477 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-06-OK, so this is how I ended up working with three different guys named Matt

478 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-06-$63,000 worth of abusive research . . . or just a really stupid waste of time?

479 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-05-Taking philosophical arguments literally

480 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-04-Burgess on Kipling

481 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-03-Public Opinion on Health Care Reform

482 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-01-Imputing count data

483 andrew gelman stats-2010-04-30-Things I learned from the Mickey Kaus for Senate campaign

484 andrew gelman stats-2010-04-30-More on problems with surveys estimating deaths in war zones

485 andrew gelman stats-2010-04-29-Auto-Gladwell, or Can fractals be used to predict human history?

486 andrew gelman stats-2010-04-29-Alternatives to regression for social science predictions

487 andrew gelman stats-2010-04-28-But it all goes to pay for gas, car insurance, and tolls on the turnpike

488 andrew gelman stats-2010-04-28-Advice to help the rich get richer

489 andrew gelman stats-2010-04-27-Should Mister P be allowed-encouraged to reside in counter-factual populations?

490 andrew gelman stats-2010-04-27-Jelte Wicherts lays down the stats on IQ

491 andrew gelman stats-2010-04-27-Ethical and data-integrity problems in a study of mortality in Iraq

492 andrew gelman stats-2010-04-26-Prolefeed

493 andrew gelman stats-2010-04-26-Bayes in the news…in a somewhat frustrating way

494 andrew gelman stats-2010-04-23-Modeling heterogenous treatment effects

495 andrew gelman stats-2010-04-22-Political Belief Networks: Socio-cognitive Heterogeneity in American Public Opinion