andrew_gelman_stats andrew_gelman_stats-2010 knowledge-graph by maker-knowledge-mining
1 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-31-“Threshold earners” and economic inequality
Introduction: Reihan Salam discusses a theory of Tyler Cowen regarding “threshold earners,” a sort of upscale version of a slacker. Here’s Cowen : A threshold earner is someone who seeks to earn a certain amount of money and no more. If wages go up, that person will respond by seeking less work or by working less hard or less often. That person simply wants to “get by” in terms of absolute earning power in order to experience other gains in the form of leisure. Salam continues: This clearly reflects the pattern of wage dispersion among my friends, particularly those who attended elite secondary schools and colleges and universities. I [Salam] know many “threshold earners,” including both high and low earners who could earn much more if they chose to make the necessary sacrifices. But they are satisficers. OK, fine so far. But then the claim is made that “threshold earning” behavior increases income inequality. In Cowen’s words: The funny thing is this: For years, many cultural c
Introduction: Type S error: When your estimate is the wrong sign, compared to the true value of the parameter Type M error: When the magnitude of your estimate is far off, compared to the true value of the parameter More here.
3 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-31-Obituaries in 2010
Introduction: David Blackwell . Julian Besag . Arnold Zellner . Benoit Mandelbrot and Hirotugu Akaike (late) . Alfred Kahn .
4 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-30-That puzzle-solving feeling
Introduction: Since this blog in November, I’ve given my talk on infovis vs. statistical graphics about five times: once in person (at the visualization meetup in NYC, a blog away from Num Pang!) and the rest via telephone conferencing or skype. The live presentation was best, but the remote talks have been improving, and I’m looking forward to doing more of these in the future to save time and reduce pollution. Here are the powerpoints of the talk. Now that I’ve got it working well (mostly by cutting lots of words on the slides), my next step will be to improve the interactive experience. At the very least, I need to allocate time after the talk for discussion. People usually don’t ask a lot of questions when I speak, so maybe the best strategy is to allow a half hour following the talk for people to speak with me individually. It could be set up so that I’m talking with one person but the others who are hanging out could hear the conversation too. Anyway, one of the times I gave th
5 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-29-Don’t try this at home
Introduction: Malecki’s right, this is very cool indeed. P.S. Is it really true that “4.5 million Parisians” ride the Metro every day? Even setting aside that not all the riders are Parisians, I’m guessing that 4.5 million is the number of rides, not the number of people who ride.
6 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-29-Brain Structure and the Big Five
Introduction: Many years ago, a research psychologist whose judgment I greatly respect told me that the characterization of personality by the so-called Big Five traits (extraversion, etc.) was old-fashioned. So I’m always surprised to see that the Big Five keeps cropping up. I guess not everyone agrees that it’s a bad idea. For example, Hamdan Azhar wrote to me: I was wondering if you’d seen this recent paper (De Young et al. 2010) that finds significant correlations between brain volume in selected regions and personality trait measures (from the Big Five). This is quite a ground-breaking finding and it was covered extensively in the mainstream media. I think readers of your blog would be interested in your thoughts, statistically speaking, on their methodology and findings. My reply: I’d be interested in my thoughts on this too! But I don’t know enough to say anything useful. From the abstract of the paper under discussion: Controlling for age, sex, and whole-brain volume
7 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-28-Brow inflation
Introduction: In an article headlined, “Hollywood moves away from middlebrow,” Brooks Barnes writes : As Hollywood plowed into 2010, there was plenty of clinging to the tried and true: humdrum remakes like “The Wolfman” and “The A-Team”; star vehicles like “Killers” with Ashton Kutcher and “The Tourist” with Angelina Jolie and Johnny Depp; and shoddy sequels like “Sex and the City 2.” All arrived at theaters with marketing thunder intended to fill multiplexes on opening weekend, no matter the quality of the film. . . . But the audience pushed back. One by one, these expensive yet middle-of-the-road pictures delivered disappointing results or flat-out flopped. Meanwhile, gambles on original concepts paid off. “Inception,” a complicated thriller about dream invaders, racked up more than $825 million in global ticket sales; “The Social Network” has so far delivered $192 million, a stellar result for a highbrow drama. . . . the message that the year sent about quality and originality is real enoug
8 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-27-Graph of the year
Introduction: From blogger Matthew Yglesias : There are lots of great graphs all over the web (see, for example, here and here for some snappy pictures of unemployment trends from blogger “Geoff”). There’s nothing special about Yglesias’s graph. In fact, the reason I’m singling it out as “graph of the year” is because it’s not special. It’s a display of three numbers, with no subtlety or artistry in its presentation. True, it has some good features: - Clear title - Clearly labeled axes - Vertical axis goes to zero - The cities are in a sensible order (not, for example, alphabetical) - The graphs is readable; none of that 3-D “data visualization” crap that looks cool but distances the reader from the numbers being displayed. What’s impressive about the above graph, what makes it a landmark to me, is that it was made at all. As noted in the text immediately below the image, it’s a display of exactly three numbers which can with little effort be completely presented and e
9 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-27-Alfred Kahn
Introduction: Appointed “inflation czar” in late 1970s, Alfred Kahn is most famous for deregulating the airline industry. At the time this seemed to make sense, although in retrospect I’m less a fan of consumer-driven policies than I used to be. When I was a kid we subscribed to Consumer Reports and so I just assumed that everything that was good for the consumer–lower prices, better products, etc.–was a good thing. Upon reflection, though, I think it’s a mistake to focus too narrowly on the interests of consumers. For example (from my Taleb review a couple years ago): The discussion on page 112 of how Ralph Nader saved lives (mostly via seat belts in cars) reminds me of his car-bumper campaign in the 1970s. My dad subscribed to Consumer Reports then (he still does, actually, and I think reads it for pleasure–it must be one of those Depression-mentality things), and at one point they were pushing heavily for the 5-mph bumpers. Apparently there was some federal regulation about how strong
10 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-26-Age and happiness: The pattern isn’t as clear as you might think
Introduction: A couple people pointed me to this recent news article which discusses “why, beyond middle age, people get happier as they get older.” Here’s the story: When people start out on adult life, they are, on average, pretty cheerful. Things go downhill from youth to middle age until they reach a nadir commonly known as the mid-life crisis. So far, so familiar. The surprising part happens after that. Although as people move towards old age they lose things they treasure–vitality, mental sharpness and looks–they also gain what people spend their lives pursuing: happiness. This curious finding has emerged from a new branch of economics that seeks a more satisfactory measure than money of human well-being. Conventional economics uses money as a proxy for utility–the dismal way in which the discipline talks about happiness. But some economists, unconvinced that there is a direct relationship between money and well-being, have decided to go to the nub of the matter and measure happiness i
11 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-25-Unlogging
Introduction: Catherine Bueker writes: I [Bueker] am analyzing the effect of various contextual factors on the voter turnout of naturalized Latino citizens. I have included the natural log of the number of Spanish Language ads run in each state during the election cycle to predict voter turnout. I now want to calculate the predicted probabilities of turnout for those in states with 0 ads, 500 ads, 1000 ads, etc. The problem is that I do not know how to handle the beta coefficient of the LN(Spanish language ads). Is there someway to “unlog” the coefficient? My reply: Calculate these probabilities for specific values of predictors, then graph the predictions of interest. Also, you can average over the other inputs in your model to get summaries. See this article with Pardoe for further discussion.
Introduction: This link on education reform send me to this blog on foreign languages in Canadian public schools: The demand for French immersion education in Vancouver so far outstrips the supply that the school board allocates places by lottery. But why? Is it because French is a useful employment skill? Because learning to speak French makes you a better person? Or is it because parents know intuitively what economists can show econometrically: peer effects matter. Being with high achieving peers raises a student’s own achievement level. . . . Several studies have found that Anglophones who can speak French enjoy an earning premium. The question is: do bilingual Anglophones earn more because speaking French is a valuable skill in the workplace? Or do they earn more because they’re on average smarter and more capable people (after all, they’ve mastered two languages)? And the blog features this comments like this : French immersion classes (as opposed to science, maths or any
13 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-23-Science, ideology, and human origins
Introduction: A link from Tyler Cowen led me to this long blog article by Razib Khan, discussing some recent genetic findings on human origins in the context of the past twenty-five years of research and popularization of science. I don’t know much about human origins (beyond my ooh-that’s-cool reactions to exhibits at the Natural History Museum, my general statistician’s skepticism at various over-the-top claims I’ve heard over the years about “mitochondrial Eve” and the like, and various bits I’ve read over the years regarding when people came over to Australia, America, etc.), but what particularly interested me about Khan’s article was his discussion about the various controversies among scientists, his own reactions when reading and thinking about these issues as they were happening (Khan was a student at the time), and the interaction between science and political ideology. There’s a limit to how far you can go with this sort of cultural criticism of science, and Khan realizes this
14 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-23-Capitalism as a form of voluntarism
Introduction: Interesting discussion by Alex Tabarrok (following up on an article by Rebecca Solnit) on the continuum between voluntarism (or, more generally, non-cash transactions) and markets with monetary exchange. I just have a few comments of my own: 1. Solnit writes of “the iceberg economy,” which she characterizes as “based on gift economies, barter, mutual aid, and giving without hope of return . . . the relations between friends, between family members, the activities of volunteers or those who have chosen their vocation on principle rather than for profit.” I just wonder whether “barter” completely fits in here. Maybe it depends on context. Sometimes barter is an informal way of keeping track (you help me and I help you), but in settings of low liquidity I could imagine barter being simply an inefficient way of performing an economic transaction. 2. I am no expert on capitalism but my impression is that it’s not just about “competition and selfishness” but also is related to the
Introduction: Mark Palko comments on the (presumably) well-intentioned but silly Jumpstart test of financial literacy , which was given to 7000 high school seniors Given that, as we heard a few years back, most high school seniors can’t locate Miami on a map of the U.S., you won’t be surprised to hear that they flubbed item after item on this quiz. But, as Palko points out, the concept is better than the execution: With the complex, unstable economy, the shift away from traditional pensions and the constant flood of new financial products, financial literacy might be more important now than it has been for decades. You could even make the case for financial illiteracy being a major cause of the economic crisis. But if the supporters of financial literacy need a good measure of how well we’re doing, they’ll need to find a better instrument than the Jump$tart survey. The ‘test’ part of the survey consists of thirty-one questions. That’s not very long but that many questions should be su
16 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-21-Instead of “confidence interval,” let’s say “uncertainty interval”
Introduction: I’ve become increasingly uncomfortable with the term “confidence interval,” for several reasons: - The well-known difficulties in interpretation (officially the confidence statement can be interpreted only on average, but people typically implicitly give the Bayesian interpretation to each case), - The ambiguity between confidence intervals and predictive intervals. (See the footnote in BDA where we discuss the difference between “inference” and “prediction” in the classical framework.) - The awkwardness of explaining that confidence intervals are big in noisy situations where you have less confidence, and confidence intervals are small when you have more confidence. So here’s my proposal. Let’s use the term “uncertainty interval” instead. The uncertainty interval tells you how much uncertainty you have. That works pretty well, I think. P.S. As of this writing, “confidence interval” outGoogles “uncertainty interval” by the huge margin of 9.5 million to 54000. So we
17 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-20-WWJD? U can find out!
Introduction: Two positions open in the statistics group at the NYU education school. If you get the job, you get to work with Jennifer HIll! One position is a postdoctoral fellowship, and the other is a visiting professorship. The latter position requires “the demonstrated ability to develop a nationally recognized research program,” which seems like a lot to ask for a visiting professor. Do they expect the visiting prof to develop a nationally recognized research program and then leave it there at NYU after the visit is over? In any case, Jennifer and her colleagues are doing excellent work, both applied and methodological, and this seems like a great opportunity.
18 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-20-More on why “all politics is local” is an outdated slogan
Introduction: Yesterday I wrote that Mickey Kaus was right to point out that it’s time to retire Tip O’Neill’s famous dictum that “all politics are local.” As Kaus points out, all the congressional elections in recent decades have been nationalized. The slogan is particularly silly for Tip O’Neill himself. Sure, O’Neill had to have a firm grip on local politics to get his safe seat in the first place, but after that it was smooth sailing. Jonathan Bernstein disagrees , writing: Yes, but: don’t most Members of the House have ironclad partisan districts? And isn’t the most important single thing they can do to protect themselves involve having pull in state politics to avoid being gerrymandered? That is “all politics is local,” no? There’s also a fair amount they can do to stay on the good side of their local party, thus avoiding a primary fight. And, even in an era of nationalized elections, there’s still plenty a Member of Congress can do to to influence elections on the margins, a
19 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-20-Costless false beliefs
Introduction: From the Gallup Poll : Four in 10 Americans, slightly fewer today than in years past, believe God created humans in their present form about 10,000 years ago. They’ve been asking the question since 1982 and it’s been pretty steady at 45%, so in some sense this is good news! (I’m saying this under the completely unsupported belief that it’s better for people to believe truths than falsehoods.) One way to think of this is that, for the overwhelming majority of people, a personal belief in young-earth creationism (or whatever you want to call it) is costless. Or, to put it another way, the discomfort involved in holding a belief that contradicts everything you were taught in school is greater than the discomfort involved in holding a belief that seems to contradict your religious values (keeping in mind that, even among those who report attending church seldom or never, a quarter of these people agree that “God created humans in their present form about 10,000 years ago”).
20 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-19-Google’s word count statistics viewer
Introduction: Word count stats from the Google books database prove that Bayesianism is expanding faster than the universe. A n-gram is a tuple of n words.
21 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-19-All politics are local — not
22 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-18-The kind of frustration we could all use more of
23 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-17-Why a bonobo won’t play poker with you
24 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-17-So-called fixed and random effects
25 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-17-Attractive models (and data) wanted for statistical art show.
27 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-16-2500 people living in a park in Chicago?
28 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-15-Weakly informative priors and imprecise probabilities
29 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-14-Do we need an integrated Bayesian-likelihood inference?
31 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-13-$3M health care prediction challenge
32 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-12-Finite-population standard deviation in a hierarchical model
35 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-09-“‘Why work?’”
36 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-09-Statistics gifts?
37 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-09-Solve mazes by starting at the exit
38 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-08-Blogging: Is it “fair use”?
39 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-07-Whassup with phantom-limb treatment?
41 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-07-Some ideas on communicating risks to the general public
42 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-07-Diabetes stops at the state line?
43 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-07-Biostatistics via Pragmatic and Perceptive Bayes.
44 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-06-Followup questions
45 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-05-What do practitioners need to know about regression?
46 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-04-The Joy of Stats
47 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-04-Generalized Method of Moments, whatever that is
48 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-03-This is a footnote in one of my papers
49 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-03-Reinventing the wheel, only more so.
50 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-03-Is 0.05 too strict as a p-value threshold?
51 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-03-Getting a job in pro sports… as a statistician
52 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-02-Rational addiction
53 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-02-Automating my graphics advice
54 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-01-bayesglm in Stata?
55 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-01-Mapmaking software
56 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-01-In defense of jargon
57 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-30-Of psychology research and investment tips
58 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-30-I just skyped in from Kentucky, and boy are my arms tired
59 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-29-The mystery of the U-shaped relationship between happiness and age
60 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-29-Quality control problems at the New York Times
61 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-29-Panel Thurs 2 Dec on politics and deficit reduction in NYC
62 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-28-When Small Numbers Lead to Big Errors
63 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-27-One way that psychology research is different than medical research
64 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-27-Neumann update
65 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-26-One fun thing about physicists . . .
66 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-25-The von Neumann paradox
67 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-24-“But you and I don’t learn in isolation either”
68 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-24-Flawed visualization of U.S. voting maybe has some good features
69 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-23-Bayesian adaptive methods for clinical trials
70 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-22-Postdoc opportunity here at Columbia — deadline soon!
71 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-21-If your comment didn’t get through . . .
72 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-21-Data cleaning tool!
73 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-20-How to schedule projects in an introductory statistics course?
74 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-20-A Gapminder-like data visualization package
75 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-19-Just chaid
76 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-18-Prison terms for financial fraud?
78 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-17-ff
79 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-17-Clutering and variance components
80 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-16-Is parenting a form of addiction?
83 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-14-Statistics of food consumption
84 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-13-Time to apply for the hackNY summer fellows program
85 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-13-Ethical concerns in medical trials
87 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-11-“Tiny,” “Large,” “Very,” “Nice,” “Dumbest”
88 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-11-Incumbency advantage in 2010
89 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-11-Data Visualization vs. Statistical Graphics
91 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-10-Estimation from an out-of-date census
93 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-09-Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics startup-math meetup
94 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-09-Kaggle: forecasting competitions in the classroom
95 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-08-Silly old chi-square!
98 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-06-Quote of the day
99 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-06-Multilevel quantile regression
100 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-05-Journalism in the age of data
101 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-05-Consulting: how do you figure out what to charge?
102 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-05-2010: What happened?
103 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-04-Estimating the effect of A on B, and also the effect of B on A
104 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-03-Taleb + 3.5 years
105 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-03-Some thoughts on election forecasting
106 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-02-Fragment of statistical autobiography
107 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-01-Why it can be rational to vote
108 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-01-The placebo effect in pharma
111 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-31-Wacky surveys where they don’t tell you the questions they asked
112 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-31-Two stories about the election that I don’t believe
113 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-31-Analyzing the entire population rather than a sample
114 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-30-“Presidential Election Outcomes Directly Influence Suicide Rates”
116 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-29-“Bluntly put . . .”
117 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-29-Could someone please set this as the new R default in base graphics?
118 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-28-World Economic Forum Data Visualization Challenge
119 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-28-The incoming moderate Republican congressmembers
120 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-28-My talk at American University
121 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-28-Matching for preprocessing data for causal inference
123 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-27-It’s better than being forwarded the latest works of you-know-who
124 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-27-A use for tables (really)
125 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-26-Musical chairs in econ journals
126 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-25-Who gets wedding announcements in the Times?
127 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-25-Misunderstanding of divided government
129 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-25-In today’s economy, the rich get richer
130 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-24-Mankiw tax update
131 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-24-Erving Goffman archives
132 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-22-Politics is not a random walk: Momentum and mean reversion in polling
133 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-22-Graphing Likert scale responses
134 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-22-A redrawing of the Red-Blue map in November 2010?
135 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-21-Tenure-track statistics job at Teachers College, here at Columbia!
139 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-20-Sas and R
140 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-20-Ranking on crime rankings
141 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-20-Andy vs. the Ideal Point Model of Voting
142 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-19-There’s only one Amtrak
146 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-18-Subtle statistical issues to be debated on TV.
147 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-18-Bike shelf
149 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-17-Getting arm and lme4 running on the Mac
151 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-15-Things we do on sabbatical instead of actually working
152 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-15-Story time
153 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-15-?
154 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-14-Trying to be precise about vagueness
155 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-14-Confusion about continuous probability densities
157 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-13-Battle of the NYT opinion-page economists
158 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-12-Update on Mankiw’s work incentives
159 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-12-Election symposium at Columbia Journalism School
161 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-11-How to think about Lou Dobbs
163 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-10-Psychiatric drugs and the reduction in crime
165 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-10-Bayes jumps the shark
166 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-09-What joker put seven dog lice in my Iraqi fez box?
168 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-08-Displaying a fitted multilevel model
169 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-07-There are never 70 distinct parameters
170 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-07-Peer pressure, selection, and educational reform
171 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-07-Fitting discrete-data regression models in social science
172 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-07-Contest for developing an R package recommendation system
173 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-06-Sociotropic Voting and the Media
174 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-06-More on the differences between drugs and medical devices
175 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-05-Racism!
177 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-04-“Who owns Congress”
178 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-04-U-Haul statistics
179 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-04-Rob Kass on statistical pragmatism, and my reactions
180 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-03-Suggested reading for a prospective statistician?
181 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-03-He doesn’t trust the fit . . . r=.999
182 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-03-Disconnect between drug and medical device approval
183 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-03-A question for psychometricians
184 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-02-“Regression to the mean” is fine. But what’s the “mean”?
185 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-02-Where do our taxes go?
186 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-02-The winner’s curse
187 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-01-Why Development Economics Needs Theory?
190 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-29-Statistics and the end of time
191 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-29-Decision science vs. social psychology
192 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-29-Data visualization marathon
193 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-28-“Genomics” vs. genetics
194 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-28-This is a link to a news article about a scientific paper
195 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-28-Correlation, prediction, variation, etc.
196 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-28-A calibrated Cook gives Dems the edge in Nov, sez Sandy
197 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-27-what is = what “should be” ??
199 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-27-An interesting education and statistics blog
200 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-26-A simple semigraphic display
201 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-25-Clusters with very small numbers of observations
203 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-23-Lowess is great
204 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-23-Doug Hibbs on the fundamentals in 2010
205 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-22-Philosophy of Bayes and non-Bayes: A dialogue with Deborah Mayo
206 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-22-Data Thief
210 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-20-Are the Democrats avoiding a national campaign?
211 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-18-Fiction is not for tirades? Tell that to Saul Bellow!
212 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-18-Continuing efforts to justify false “death panels” claim
213 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-17-Vote Buying: Evidence from a List Experiment in Lebanon
214 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-17-I can’t escape it
215 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-16-NSF crowdsourcing
216 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-16-Meet Hipmunk, a really cool flight-finder that doesn’t actually work
217 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-15-Electability and perception of electability
219 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-14-In an introductory course, when does learning occur?
221 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-14-Data visualization at the American Evaluation Association
223 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-13-Update on marathon statistics
224 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-13-Ross Ihaka to R: Drop Dead
225 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-12-GLM – exposure
226 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-12-Comparison of forecasts for the 2010 congressional elections
227 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-10-R vs. Stata, or, Different ways to estimate multilevel models
228 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-10-Fighting Migraine with Multilevel Modeling
230 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-09-The future of R
231 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-09-Removing the blindfold: visualising statistical models
232 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-08-Tortoise is planning to vote Republican this year
233 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-08-The China Study: fact or fallacy?
235 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-07-The $900 kindergarten teacher
236 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-07-QB2
237 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-06-Inbox zero. Really.
238 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-05-A review of a review of a review of a decade
239 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-04-Question about standard range for social science correlations
241 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-04-How does multilevel modeling affect the estimate of the grand mean?
243 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-03-Gladwell vs Pinker
244 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-02-R needs a good function to make line plots
245 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-02-Interactions of predictors in a causal model
246 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-02-Blending results from two relatively independent multi-level models
247 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-01-References on predicting elections
248 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-01-Ratios where the numerator and denominator both change signs
249 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-01-How does Bayes do it?
250 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-31-Somewhat Bayesian multilevel modeling
251 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-31-Predicting marathon times
253 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-30-Computer models of the oil spill
254 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-29-The Subtle Micro-Effects of Peacekeeping
255 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-29-Ethics and statistics in development research
256 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-29-ARM solutions
257 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-28-The mathematics of democracy
258 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-27-No radon lobby
260 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-26-Teaching yourself mathematics
261 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-25-Term Limits for the Supreme Court?
262 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-25-Modeling constrained parameters
263 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-25-Lauryn Hill update
264 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-25-Dodging the diplomats
265 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-24-Yet another Bayesian job opportunity
266 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-24-Kaggle forcasting update
267 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-24-Bizarre twisty argument about medical diagnostic tests
268 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-24-A new efficient lossless compression algorithm
269 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-23-Visualization magazine
270 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-23-More on those L.A. Times estimates of teacher effectiveness
271 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-23-Getting into hot water over hot graphics
272 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-22-Mister P gets married
273 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-21-Statoverflow
275 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-21-Busted!
276 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-20-Why I blog?
278 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-20-I think you knew this already
280 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-18-More forecasting competitions
281 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-18-DataMarket
282 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-17-Probability-processing hardware
283 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-17-Matching at two levels
285 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-17-Deducer update
286 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-16-What I learned from those tough 538 commenters
287 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-16-EdLab at Columbia’s Teachers’ College
288 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-15-When Does a Name Become Androgynous?
289 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-14-Pourquoi Google search est devenu plus raisonnable?
290 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-13-Indiemapper makes thematic mapping easy
291 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-13-Arnold Zellner
293 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-12-John McPhee, the Anti-Malcolm
294 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-12-Job openings in multilevel modeling in Bristol, England
295 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-12-Are all rich people now liberals?
297 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-11-Note to semi-spammers
298 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-11-Multilevel modeling in R on a Mac
299 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-10-The last great essayist?
300 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-10-The U.S. as welfare state
301 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-09-President Carter
302 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-09-Data Visualization
303 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-09-Besag
304 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-08-Turning pages into data
305 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-08-Angry about the soda tax
308 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-06-Fake newspaper headlines
309 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-05-Update on state size and governors’ popularity
311 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-04-Why does anyone support private macroeconomic forecasts?
312 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-04-That half-Cauchy prior
313 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-04-Bayesian models for simultaneous equation systems?
315 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-03-MCMC in Python
316 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-03-Climate Change News
317 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-03-An Olympic size swimming pool full of lithium water
318 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-03-(Partisan) visualization of health care legislation
320 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-02-Information is good
321 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-02-A useful rule of thumb
322 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-01-Literature and life
323 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-31-Editing and clutch hitting
324 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-30-Why don’t we have peer reviewing for oral presentations?
326 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-29-When is expertise relevant?
327 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-29-Say again?
328 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-28-Colorless green, and clueless
329 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-27-Why don’t more medical discoveries become cures?
330 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-27-The Three Golden Rules for Successful Scientific Research
332 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-26-A very short story
333 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-25-The fundamental attribution error: A literary example
334 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-25-Darn that Lindsey Graham! (or, “Mr. P Predicts the Kagan vote”)
336 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-23-Unhappy with improvement by a factor of 10^29
337 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-23-Popular governor, small state
338 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-22-Tenants and landlords
339 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-21-Roller coasters, charity, profit, hmmm
340 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-20-Burglars are local
341 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-19-David Blackwell
342 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-18-Predictive checks for hierarchical models
345 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-16-Wanted: Probability distributions for rank orderings
347 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-16-Demographics: what variable best predicts a financial crisis?
349 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-15-Quote of the day: statisticians and defaults
350 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-14-The statistics and the science
352 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-13-Hey! Here’s a referee report for you!
355 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-12-Dispute over counts of child deaths in Iraq due to sanctions
356 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-10-SeeThroughNY
357 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-10-Life in New York, Then and Now
358 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-10-Creating a good wager based on probability estimates
359 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-10-Cost of communicating numbers
360 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-09-Using ranks as numbers
361 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-09-Rasmussen sez: “108% of Respondents Say . . .”
363 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-08-Gratuitous use of “Bayesian Statistics,” a branding issue?
364 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-07-Note to “Cigarettes”
365 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-07-A note to John
366 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-07-A False Consensus about Public Opinion on Torture
367 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-05-Unrelated to all else
368 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-05-The greatest works of statistics never published
369 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-04-Inequality and health
370 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-03-Graphical presentation of risk ratios
371 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-02-The moral of the story is, Don’t look yourself up on Google
372 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-02-Note to the quals
373 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-01-Truth in headlines
374 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-01-MCMC machine
376 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-30-You can’t put Pandora back in the box
377 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-30-Why is George Apley overrated?
378 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-30-Question & Answer Communities
379 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-29-Ya don’t know Bayes, Jack
380 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-29-How to grab power in a democracy – in 5 easy non-violent steps
381 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-28-Whassup with those crappy thrillers?
382 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-28-More on Bayesian deduction-induction
383 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-28-Advocacy in the form of a “deliberative forum”
384 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-27-Sampling rate of human-scaled time series
385 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-26-Tough love as a style of writing
386 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-26-Philosophy and the practice of Bayesian statistics
387 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-25-Classics of statistics
388 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-24-Sometimes the raw numbers are better than a percentage
389 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-24-PPS in Georgia
392 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-22-Seeking balance
393 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-22-Beach reads, Proust, and income tax
394 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-21-Why modern art is all in the mind
395 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-20-“People with an itch to scratch”
397 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-19-Paired comparisons
398 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-19-Further thoughts on happiness and life satisfaction research
399 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-18-Economic Disparities and Life Satisfaction in European Regions
401 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-17-“Rewarding Strivers: Helping Low-Income Students Succeed in College”
402 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-17-SAT stories
403 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-17-My proposal for making college admissions fairer
404 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-17-Drug testing for recipents of NSF and NIH grants?
405 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-16-RSS mess
406 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-16-Oil spill and corn production
407 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-16-A historical perspective on financial bailouts
408 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-15-What people do vs. what they want to do
409 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-15-Statistical analysis and visualization of the drug war in Mexico
410 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-14-“Too much data”?
411 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-14-Prior distribution for design effects
412 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-14-Is it 1930?
413 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-13-Silly Sas lays out old-fashioned statistical thinking
414 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-12-UnConMax – uncertainty consideration maxims 7 +-- 2
415 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-12-Reputational Capital and Incentives in Organizations
416 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-11-Free online course in multilevel modeling
418 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-10-Hey, where’s my kickback?
419 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-09-Sof[t]
420 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-09-Both R and Stata
421 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-08-“Is the cyber mob a threat to freedom?”
422 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-08-“Extreme views weakly held”
423 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-08-Observational Epidemiology
424 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-07-Valencia: Summer of 1991
425 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-07-Pay for an A?
426 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-07-Mister P goes on a date
427 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-04-A Wikipedia whitewash
428 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-03-…pretty soon you’re talking real money.
429 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-03-More on that Dartmouth health care study
431 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-03-How best to learn R?
432 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-03-Estimates of war deaths: Darfur edition
433 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-02-The problem of overestimation of group-level variance parameters
434 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-01-Two Postdoc Positions Available on Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling
435 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-31-A data visualization manifesto
436 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-30-What Auteur Theory and Freshwater Economics have in common
437 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-30-Extended Binary Format Support for Mac OS X
438 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-29-Stupid legal crap
439 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-29-Roth and Amsterdam
442 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-27-Hype about conditional probability puzzles
443 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-26-Tumors, on the left, or on the right?
444 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-26-Intellectual property
446 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-25-Looking for Sister Right
447 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-24-Blogging
448 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-23-The bane of many causes
449 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-23-Of home runs and grand slams
450 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-21-Careers, one-hit wonders, and an offer of a free book
452 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-20-Boris was right
453 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-19-What do Tuesday’s elections tell us about November?
454 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-19-Updated solutions to Bayesian Data Analysis homeworks
455 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-19-Updated R code and data for ARM
456 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-18-What visualization is best?
457 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-18-The 1.6 rule
460 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-16-Female Mass Murderers: Babes Behind Bars
461 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-16-Another update on the spam email study
462 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-14-Non-academic writings on literature
464 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-14-Causal inference in economics
465 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-13-Visualization in 1939
466 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-13-Trips to Cleveland
467 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-12-Probability of successive wins in baseball
469 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-11-Update on the spam email study
470 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-11-Update on religious affiliations of Supreme Court justices
471 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-10-Two great tastes that taste great together
472 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-09-Special journal issue on statistical methods for the social sciences
473 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-09-Popper’s great, but don’t bother with his theory of probability
475 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-07-Environmentally induced cancer “grossly underestimated”? Doubtful.
476 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-07-Bayesian hierarchical model for the prediction of soccer results
479 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-05-Taking philosophical arguments literally
480 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-04-Burgess on Kipling
481 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-03-Public Opinion on Health Care Reform
482 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-01-Imputing count data
483 andrew gelman stats-2010-04-30-Things I learned from the Mickey Kaus for Senate campaign
484 andrew gelman stats-2010-04-30-More on problems with surveys estimating deaths in war zones
485 andrew gelman stats-2010-04-29-Auto-Gladwell, or Can fractals be used to predict human history?
486 andrew gelman stats-2010-04-29-Alternatives to regression for social science predictions
488 andrew gelman stats-2010-04-28-Advice to help the rich get richer
490 andrew gelman stats-2010-04-27-Jelte Wicherts lays down the stats on IQ
491 andrew gelman stats-2010-04-27-Ethical and data-integrity problems in a study of mortality in Iraq
492 andrew gelman stats-2010-04-26-Prolefeed
493 andrew gelman stats-2010-04-26-Bayes in the news…in a somewhat frustrating way
494 andrew gelman stats-2010-04-23-Modeling heterogenous treatment effects