andrew_gelman_stats andrew_gelman_stats-2010 andrew_gelman_stats-2010-323 knowledge-graph by maker-knowledge-mining
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Introduction: Stephen Ansolabehere, Marc Meredith, and Erik Snowberg write : The literature on economic voting notes that voters’ subjective evaluations of the overall state of the economy are correlated with vote choice, whereas personal economic experiences are not. Missing from this literature is a description of how voters acquire information about the general state of the economy, and how that information is used to form perceptions. In order to begin understanding this process, we [Ansolabehere, Meredith, and Snowberg] asked a series of questions on the 2006 ANES Pilot about respondents’ perceptions of the average price of gas and the unemployment rate in their home state. We find that questions about gas prices and unemployment show differences in the sources of information about these two economic variables. Information about unemployment rates come from media sources, and are systematically biased by partisan factors. Information about gas prices, in contrast, comes only from everyday
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1 Stephen Ansolabehere, Marc Meredith, and Erik Snowberg write : The literature on economic voting notes that voters’ subjective evaluations of the overall state of the economy are correlated with vote choice, whereas personal economic experiences are not. [sent-1, score-1.373]
2 Missing from this literature is a description of how voters acquire information about the general state of the economy, and how that information is used to form perceptions. [sent-2, score-0.903]
3 In order to begin understanding this process, we [Ansolabehere, Meredith, and Snowberg] asked a series of questions on the 2006 ANES Pilot about respondents’ perceptions of the average price of gas and the unemployment rate in their home state. [sent-3, score-1.068]
4 We find that questions about gas prices and unemployment show differences in the sources of information about these two economic variables. [sent-4, score-1.377]
5 Information about unemployment rates come from media sources, and are systematically biased by partisan factors. [sent-5, score-0.63]
6 Information about gas prices, in contrast, comes only from everyday experiences. [sent-6, score-0.396]
7 The connection between economic conditions and political outcomes is hugely important, and increasingly recognized as such. [sent-8, score-0.877]
8 But a key piece is the connection between perceptions, political ideology, and economic reality. [sent-9, score-0.544]
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Introduction: Stephen Ansolabehere, Marc Meredith, and Erik Snowberg write : The literature on economic voting notes that voters’ subjective evaluations of the overall state of the economy are correlated with vote choice, whereas personal economic experiences are not. Missing from this literature is a description of how voters acquire information about the general state of the economy, and how that information is used to form perceptions. In order to begin understanding this process, we [Ansolabehere, Meredith, and Snowberg] asked a series of questions on the 2006 ANES Pilot about respondents’ perceptions of the average price of gas and the unemployment rate in their home state. We find that questions about gas prices and unemployment show differences in the sources of information about these two economic variables. Information about unemployment rates come from media sources, and are systematically biased by partisan factors. Information about gas prices, in contrast, comes only from everyday
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Introduction: Nick Obradovich saw our graphs and regressions showing that the most popular governors tended to come from small states and suggested looking at unemployment rates. (I’d used change in per-capita income as my economic predictor, following the usual practice in political science.) Here’s the graph that got things started: And here’s what Obradovich wrote: It seems that average unemployment rate is more strongly negatively correlated with positive governor approval ratings than is population. The unemployment rate and state size is positively correlated. Anyway, when I include state unemployment rate in the regressions, it pulls the significance away from state population. I do economic data work much of the day, so when I read your post this morning and looked at your charts, state unemployment rates jumped right out at me as a potential confound. I passed this suggestion on to Hanfei, who ran some regressions: lm (popularity ~ c.log.statepop + c.unemployment)
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Introduction: A lot of people are asking, How could the voters have swung so much in two years? And, why didn’t Obama give Americans a better sense of his long-term economic plan in 2009, back when he still had a political mandate? As an academic statistician and political scientist, I have no insight into the administration’s internal deliberations, but I have some thoughts based on my interpretation of political science research. The baseline As Doug Hibbs and others have pointed out, given the Democrats’ existing large majority in both houses of Congress and the continuing economic depression, we’d expect a big Republican swing in the vote. And this has been echoed for a long time in the polls–as early as September, 2009–over a year before the election–political scientists were forecasting that the Democrats were going to lose big in the midterms. (The polls have made it clear that most voters do not believe the Republican Party has the answer either. But, as I’ve emphasized before
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Introduction: A few years ago Larry Bartels presented this graph, a version of which latter appeared in his book Unequal Democracy: Larry looked at the data in a number of ways, and the evidence seemed convincing that, at least in the short term, the Democrats were better than Republicans for the economy. This is consistent with Democrats’ general policies of lowering unemployment, as compared to Republicans lowering inflation, and, by comparing first-term to second-term presidents, he found that the result couldn’t simply be explained as a rebound or alternation pattern. The question then arose, why have the Republicans won so many elections? Why aren’t the Democrats consistently dominating? Non-economic issues are part of the story, of course, but lots of evidence shows the economy to be a key concern for voters, so it’s still hard to see how, with a pattern such as shown above, the Republicans could keep winning. Larry had some explanations, largely having to do with timing: under De
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Introduction: Stephen Ansolabehere, Marc Meredith, and Erik Snowberg write : The literature on economic voting notes that voters’ subjective evaluations of the overall state of the economy are correlated with vote choice, whereas personal economic experiences are not. Missing from this literature is a description of how voters acquire information about the general state of the economy, and how that information is used to form perceptions. In order to begin understanding this process, we [Ansolabehere, Meredith, and Snowberg] asked a series of questions on the 2006 ANES Pilot about respondents’ perceptions of the average price of gas and the unemployment rate in their home state. We find that questions about gas prices and unemployment show differences in the sources of information about these two economic variables. Information about unemployment rates come from media sources, and are systematically biased by partisan factors. Information about gas prices, in contrast, comes only from everyday
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