andrew_gelman_stats andrew_gelman_stats-2010 andrew_gelman_stats-2010-75 knowledge-graph by maker-knowledge-mining
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Introduction: This one was so dumb I couldn’t resist sharing it with you. TEMPLETON BOOK FORUM invites you to “Is the Cyber Mob a Threat to Freedom?” featuring Ron Rosenbaum, Slate, Lee Siegel, The New York Observer, moderated by Michael Goodwin, The New York Post New Threats to Freedom Today’s threats to freedom are “much less visible and obvious than they were in the 20th century and may even appear in the guise of social and political progress,” writes Adam Bellow in his introduction to the new essay collection that he has edited for the Templeton Press. Indeed, Bellow suggests, the danger often lies precisely in our “failure or reluctance to notice them.” According to Ron Rosenbaum and Lee Siegel, in their provocative contributions to the volume, the extraordinary advances made possible by the Internet have come at a sometimes worrisome cost. Rosenbaum focuses on how online anonymity has become a mask encouraging political discourse that is increasingly distorted by vitriol, abuse, and
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1 TEMPLETON BOOK FORUM invites you to “Is the Cyber Mob a Threat to Freedom? [sent-2, score-0.059]
2 Indeed, Bellow suggests, the danger often lies precisely in our “failure or reluctance to notice them. [sent-4, score-0.114]
3 ” According to Ron Rosenbaum and Lee Siegel, in their provocative contributions to the volume, the extraordinary advances made possible by the Internet have come at a sometimes worrisome cost. [sent-5, score-0.122]
4 Rosenbaum focuses on how online anonymity has become a mask encouraging political discourse that is increasingly distorted by vitriol, abuse, and thuggishness. [sent-6, score-0.256]
5 Siegel argues that the Internet has undermined long-established standards of excellence, promoting participation and popularity over talent and originality. [sent-7, score-0.096]
6 Both writers warn against the growing influence of what Siegel calls “interactive mobs. [sent-8, score-0.062]
7 The John Templeton Foundation serves as a philanthropic catalyst for research and discoveries relating to the Big Questions of human purpose and ultimate reality. [sent-12, score-0.172]
8 We support work at the world’s top universities in such fields as theoretical physics, cosmology, evolutionary biology, cognitive science, and social science relating to love, forgiveness, creativity, purpose, and the nature and origin of religious belief. [sent-13, score-0.299]
9 We also seek to stimulate new thinking about freedom and free enterprise, character development, and exceptional cognitive talent and genius. [sent-14, score-0.613]
10 Unfortunately, I can’t make it to the event, but perhaps any of you who are there could report back and let us know what “today’s threats to freedom” are, and how they compare to the threats to freedom in the 20th century. [sent-16, score-0.781]
11 Luckily, we have exemplars of excellence such as Adam Bellow and Lee Siegel to pick up the torch and about the problems with “online anonymity. [sent-19, score-0.12]
12 Or maybe they’re going to talk about theoretical physics and cosmology? [sent-21, score-0.134]
13 Still, it seemed like it could be more interesting than the ad from Grizzly Analytical (“Offering high quality Sanger Sequencing universal primers & NextGen Sequencing adapter primer sets at very considerable savings. [sent-26, score-0.14]
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same-blog 1 1.0 75 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-08-“Is the cyber mob a threat to freedom?”
Introduction: This one was so dumb I couldn’t resist sharing it with you. TEMPLETON BOOK FORUM invites you to “Is the Cyber Mob a Threat to Freedom?” featuring Ron Rosenbaum, Slate, Lee Siegel, The New York Observer, moderated by Michael Goodwin, The New York Post New Threats to Freedom Today’s threats to freedom are “much less visible and obvious than they were in the 20th century and may even appear in the guise of social and political progress,” writes Adam Bellow in his introduction to the new essay collection that he has edited for the Templeton Press. Indeed, Bellow suggests, the danger often lies precisely in our “failure or reluctance to notice them.” According to Ron Rosenbaum and Lee Siegel, in their provocative contributions to the volume, the extraordinary advances made possible by the Internet have come at a sometimes worrisome cost. Rosenbaum focuses on how online anonymity has become a mask encouraging political discourse that is increasingly distorted by vitriol, abuse, and
Introduction: Last week I published in Slate a critique of a paper that appeared in the journal Psychological Science. That paper, by Alec Beall and Jessica Tracy, found that women who were at peak fertility were three times more likely to wear red or pink shirts, compared to women at other points in their menstrual cycles. The study was based an 100 participants on the internet and 24 college students. In my critique, I argued that we had no reason to believe the results generalized to the larger population, because (1) the samples were not representative, (2) the measurements were noisy, (3) the researchers did not use the correct dates of peak fertility, and (4) there were many different comparisons that could have been reported in the data, so there was nothing special about a particular comparison being statistically significant. I likened their paper to other work which I considered flawed for multiple comparisons (too many researcher degrees of freedom), including a claimed relation bet
Introduction: Ratio estimates are common in statistics. In survey sampling, the ratio estimate is when you use y/x to estimate Y/X (using the notation in which x,y are totals of sample measurements and X,Y are population totals). In textbook sampling examples, the denominator X will be an all-positive variable, something that is easy to measure and is, ideally, close to proportional to Y. For example, X is last year’s sales and Y is this year’s sales, or X is the number of people in a cluster and Y is some count. Ratio estimation doesn’t work so well if X can be either positive or negative. More generally we can consider any estimate of a ratio, with no need for a survey sampling context. The problem with estimating Y/X is that the very interpretation of Y/X can change completely if the sign of X changes. Everything is ok for a point estimate: you get X.hat and Y.hat, you can take the ratio Y.hat/X.hat, no problem. But the inference falls apart if you have enough uncertainty in X.hat th
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Introduction: Lee Wilkinson sends me this amusing ad for his new software, AdviseStat: The ad is a parody, but the software is real !
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Introduction: Duncan Watts gave his new book the above title, reflecting his irritation with those annoying people who, upon hearing of the latest social science research, reply with: Duh-I-knew-that. (I don’t know how to say Duh in Australian; maybe someone can translate that for me?) I, like Duncan, am easily irritated, and I looked forward to reading the book. I enjoyed it a lot, even though it has only one graph, and that graph has a problem with its y-axis. (OK, the book also has two diagrams and a graph of fake data, but that doesn’t count.) Before going on, let me say that I agree wholeheartedly with Duncan’s central point: social science research findings are often surprising, but the best results cause us to rethink our world in such a way that they seem completely obvious, in retrospect. (Don Rubin used to tell us that there’s no such thing as a “paradox”: once you fully understand a phenomenon, it should not seem paradoxical any more. When learning science, we sometimes speak
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Introduction: This one was so dumb I couldn’t resist sharing it with you. TEMPLETON BOOK FORUM invites you to “Is the Cyber Mob a Threat to Freedom?” featuring Ron Rosenbaum, Slate, Lee Siegel, The New York Observer, moderated by Michael Goodwin, The New York Post New Threats to Freedom Today’s threats to freedom are “much less visible and obvious than they were in the 20th century and may even appear in the guise of social and political progress,” writes Adam Bellow in his introduction to the new essay collection that he has edited for the Templeton Press. Indeed, Bellow suggests, the danger often lies precisely in our “failure or reluctance to notice them.” According to Ron Rosenbaum and Lee Siegel, in their provocative contributions to the volume, the extraordinary advances made possible by the Internet have come at a sometimes worrisome cost. Rosenbaum focuses on how online anonymity has become a mask encouraging political discourse that is increasingly distorted by vitriol, abuse, and
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Introduction: A link from Tyler Cowen led me to this long blog article by Razib Khan, discussing some recent genetic findings on human origins in the context of the past twenty-five years of research and popularization of science. I don’t know much about human origins (beyond my ooh-that’s-cool reactions to exhibits at the Natural History Museum, my general statistician’s skepticism at various over-the-top claims I’ve heard over the years about “mitochondrial Eve” and the like, and various bits I’ve read over the years regarding when people came over to Australia, America, etc.), but what particularly interested me about Khan’s article was his discussion about the various controversies among scientists, his own reactions when reading and thinking about these issues as they were happening (Khan was a student at the time), and the interaction between science and political ideology. There’s a limit to how far you can go with this sort of cultural criticism of science, and Khan realizes this
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Introduction: Anthropologist Marshall Sahlins writes : When native Australians or New Guineans say that their totemic animals and plants are their kinsmen – that these species are persons like themselves, and that in offering them to others they are giving away part of their own substance – we have to take them seriously, which is to say empirically, if we want to understand the large consequences of these facts for how they organise their lives. The graveyard of ethnographic studies is strewn with the remains of reports which, thanks to anthropologists’ own presuppositions as to what constitutes empirical fact, were content to ignore or debunk the Amazonian peoples who said that the animals they hunted were their brothers-in-law, the Africans who described the way they systematically killed their kings when they became weak, or the Fijian chiefs who claimed they were gods. My first thought was . . . wait a minute! Whazzat with “presuppositions as to what constitutes empirical fact”? That a
Introduction: The other day, Nicholas Christakis wrote an article in the newspaper criticizing academic social science departments: The social sciences have stagnated. . . . This is not only boring but also counterproductive, constraining engagement with the scientific cutting edge and stifling the creation of new and useful knowledge. . . . I’m not suggesting that social scientists stop teaching and investigating classic topics like monopoly power, racial profiling and health inequality. But everyone knows that monopoly power is bad for markets, that people are racially biased and that illness is unequally distributed by social class. There are diminishing returns from the continuing study of many such topics. And repeatedly observing these phenomena does not help us fix them. I disagreed , saying that Christakis wasn’t giving social science research enough credit: I’m no economist so I can let others discuss the bit about “monopoly power is bad for markets.” I assume that the study by
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Introduction: OK, the 30 days of statistics are over. I’ll still be posting regularly on statistical topics, but now it will be mixed in with everything else, as before. Here’s what I put on the sister blogs in the past month: 1. How to write an entire report with fake data. 2. “Life getting shorter for women in hundreds of U.S. counties”: I’d like to see a graph of relative change in death rates, with age on the x-axis. 3. “Not a choice” != “genetic” . 4. Remember when I said I’d never again post on albedo? I was lying . 5. Update on Arrow’s theorem. It’s a Swiss thing , you wouldn’t understand. 6. Dan Ariely can’t read, but don’t blame Johnson and Goldstein. 7. My co-blogger endorses college scholarships for bowling . Which reminds me that my friends and I did “intramural bowling” in high school to get out of going to gym class. Nobody paid us. We even had to rent the shoes! 8. The quest for http://www.freakonomics.com/2008/10/10/my-colleague-casey-mu
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Introduction: This one was so dumb I couldn’t resist sharing it with you. TEMPLETON BOOK FORUM invites you to “Is the Cyber Mob a Threat to Freedom?” featuring Ron Rosenbaum, Slate, Lee Siegel, The New York Observer, moderated by Michael Goodwin, The New York Post New Threats to Freedom Today’s threats to freedom are “much less visible and obvious than they were in the 20th century and may even appear in the guise of social and political progress,” writes Adam Bellow in his introduction to the new essay collection that he has edited for the Templeton Press. Indeed, Bellow suggests, the danger often lies precisely in our “failure or reluctance to notice them.” According to Ron Rosenbaum and Lee Siegel, in their provocative contributions to the volume, the extraordinary advances made possible by the Internet have come at a sometimes worrisome cost. Rosenbaum focuses on how online anonymity has become a mask encouraging political discourse that is increasingly distorted by vitriol, abuse, and
Introduction: Responding to a proposal to move the journal Political Analysis from double-blind to single-blind reviewing (that is, authors would not know who is reviewing their papers but reviewers would know the authors’ names), Tom Palfrey writes: I agree with the editors’ recommendation. I have served on quite a few editorial boards of journals with different blinding policies, and have seen no evidence that double blind procedures are a useful way to improve the quality of articles published in a journal. Aside from the obvious administrative nuisance and the fact that authorship anonymity is a thing of the past in our discipline, the theoretical and empirical arguments in both directions lead to an ambiguous conclusion. Also keep in mind that the editors know the identity of the authors (they need to know for practical reasons), their identity is not hidden from authors, and ultimately it is they who make the accept/reject decision, and also lobby their friends and colleagues to submit “the
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Introduction: George Leckie writes: The Centre for Multilevel Modelling at the University of Bristol is seeking to appoint an applied statistician to work on a new ESRC-funded project, Longitudinal Effects, Multilevel Modelling and Applications (LEMMA 3). LEMMA 3 is one of six Nodes of the National Centre for Research Methods (NCRM). The LEMMA 3 Node will focus on methods for the analysis of longitudinal data. The appointment, at Research Assistant or Research Associate level, will be for 2.5 years with likelihood of extension to the end of September 2014. For further details, including information on how to apply online, please go to http://www.bris.ac.uk/boris/jobs/feeds/ads?ID=100571 By “modelling,” I think he means “modeling.” And by “centre,” I think he means “center.” But I think you get the basic idea. It looks like a great place to do research.
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