andrew_gelman_stats andrew_gelman_stats-2010 andrew_gelman_stats-2010-185 knowledge-graph by maker-knowledge-mining

185 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-04-Why does anyone support private macroeconomic forecasts?


meta infos for this blog

Source: html

Introduction: Tyler Cowen asks the above question. I don’t have a full answer, but, in the Economics section of A Quantitative Tour of the Social Sciences , Richard Clarida discusses in detail the ways that researchers have tried to estimate the extent to which government or private forecasts supply additional information.


Summary: the most important sentenses genereted by tfidf model

sentIndex sentText sentNum sentScore

1 I don’t have a full answer, but, in the Economics section of A Quantitative Tour of the Social Sciences , Richard Clarida discusses in detail the ways that researchers have tried to estimate the extent to which government or private forecasts supply additional information. [sent-2, score-2.67]


similar blogs computed by tfidf model

tfidf for this blog:

wordName wordTfidf (topN-words)

[('tour', 0.355), ('forecasts', 0.258), ('private', 0.247), ('discusses', 0.227), ('supply', 0.227), ('richard', 0.224), ('cowen', 0.219), ('detail', 0.218), ('tyler', 0.215), ('asks', 0.204), ('quantitative', 0.204), ('sciences', 0.204), ('additional', 0.199), ('government', 0.187), ('section', 0.185), ('extent', 0.182), ('tried', 0.18), ('economics', 0.169), ('full', 0.152), ('ways', 0.149), ('answer', 0.133), ('estimate', 0.131), ('researchers', 0.128), ('social', 0.12), ('information', 0.111)]

similar blogs list:

simIndex simValue blogId blogTitle

same-blog 1 1.0000001 185 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-04-Why does anyone support private macroeconomic forecasts?

Introduction: Tyler Cowen asks the above question. I don’t have a full answer, but, in the Economics section of A Quantitative Tour of the Social Sciences , Richard Clarida discusses in detail the ways that researchers have tried to estimate the extent to which government or private forecasts supply additional information.

2 0.14115255 1994 andrew gelman stats-2013-08-22-“The comment section is open, but I’m not going to read them”

Introduction: That’s Tyler Cowen’s policy . I read almost all the comments here. I’m glad I read them, I think. Over the years, I’ve learned a lot of interesting things from the comments. Sometimes, though, I wish I hadn’t bothered. Cowen gets about 10 times as many comments as I do, so I think in his case it makes sense to just ignore them. If he read (or, even worse, responded to) them, he’d have no time for anything else.

3 0.12673882 436 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-29-Quality control problems at the New York Times

Introduction: I guess there’s a reason they put this stuff in the Opinion section and not in the Science section, huh? P.S. More here .

4 0.11850174 528 andrew gelman stats-2011-01-21-Elevator shame is a two-way street

Introduction: Tyler Cowen links a blog by Samuel Arbesman mocking people who are so lazy that they take the elevator from 1 to 2. This reminds me of my own annoyance about a guy who worked in my building and did not take the elevator. (For the full story, go here and search on “elevator.”)

5 0.11623282 408 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-11-Incumbency advantage in 2010

Introduction: See here for the full story.

6 0.09877906 1537 andrew gelman stats-2012-10-17-100!

7 0.095276847 1335 andrew gelman stats-2012-05-21-Responding to a bizarre anti-social-science screed

8 0.086282305 391 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-03-Some thoughts on election forecasting

9 0.085679881 232 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-25-Dodging the diplomats

10 0.085657537 743 andrew gelman stats-2011-06-03-An argument that can’t possibly make sense

11 0.085252859 2343 andrew gelman stats-2014-05-22-Big Data needs Big Model

12 0.082610205 1754 andrew gelman stats-2013-03-08-Cool GSS training video! And cumulative file 1972-2012!

13 0.081727922 1132 andrew gelman stats-2012-01-21-A counterfeit data graphic

14 0.080991469 591 andrew gelman stats-2011-02-25-Quantitative Methods in the Social Sciences M.A.: Innovative, interdisciplinary social science research program for a data-rich world

15 0.080502763 387 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-01-Do you own anything that was manufactured in the 1950s and still is in regular, active use in your life?

16 0.079687752 1630 andrew gelman stats-2012-12-18-Postdoc positions at Microsoft Research – NYC

17 0.078789033 682 andrew gelman stats-2011-04-27-“The ultimate left-wing novel”

18 0.078577936 1946 andrew gelman stats-2013-07-19-Prior distributions on derived quantities rather than on parameters themselves

19 0.076683015 239 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-28-The mathematics of democracy

20 0.0765104 270 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-12-Comparison of forecasts for the 2010 congressional elections


similar blogs computed by lsi model

lsi for this blog:

topicId topicWeight

[(0, 0.084), (1, -0.015), (2, 0.014), (3, -0.004), (4, -0.018), (5, 0.023), (6, -0.015), (7, 0.0), (8, -0.023), (9, 0.034), (10, -0.017), (11, -0.018), (12, -0.019), (13, 0.037), (14, -0.043), (15, -0.0), (16, -0.016), (17, 0.035), (18, 0.046), (19, -0.014), (20, 0.045), (21, -0.009), (22, 0.005), (23, 0.048), (24, -0.006), (25, -0.003), (26, 0.035), (27, -0.012), (28, -0.031), (29, -0.012), (30, -0.016), (31, -0.008), (32, 0.024), (33, -0.084), (34, 0.057), (35, 0.008), (36, 0.009), (37, 0.03), (38, 0.047), (39, -0.05), (40, -0.051), (41, 0.03), (42, -0.002), (43, -0.033), (44, -0.025), (45, 0.034), (46, 0.047), (47, -0.056), (48, -0.018), (49, -0.012)]

similar blogs list:

simIndex simValue blogId blogTitle

same-blog 1 0.98957062 185 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-04-Why does anyone support private macroeconomic forecasts?

Introduction: Tyler Cowen asks the above question. I don’t have a full answer, but, in the Economics section of A Quantitative Tour of the Social Sciences , Richard Clarida discusses in detail the ways that researchers have tried to estimate the extent to which government or private forecasts supply additional information.

2 0.60575676 1335 andrew gelman stats-2012-05-21-Responding to a bizarre anti-social-science screed

Introduction: Philosophy professor Gary Gutting writes : Public policy debates often involve appeals to results of work in social sciences like economics and sociology. . . . How much authority should we give to such work in our policy decisions? . . . The core natural sciences (e.g., physics, chemistry, biology) are so well established that we readily accept their best-supported conclusions as definitive. . . . But how reliable is even the best work on the effects of teaching? How, for example, does it compare with the best work by biochemists on the effects of light on plant growth? Since humans are much more complex than plants and biochemists have far more refined techniques for studying plants, we may well expect the biochemical work to be far more reliable. . . . While the physical sciences produce many detailed and precise predictions, the social sciences do not. OK, fine. But then comes the punchline: Given the limited predictive success and the lack of consensus in social scienc

3 0.60288179 1852 andrew gelman stats-2013-05-12-Crime novels for economists

Introduction: Following up on this post by Noah Smith on economics in science fiction, Mark Palko writes on economics in crime fiction. Just as almost all science fiction is ultimately about politics, one could say that just about all crime fiction is about economics. But if I had to pick one crime novelist with an economics focus, I’d pick George V. Higgins. In one of his novels, his character Jerry Kennedy had a riff on the difference between guys who get a salary and guys who have to work for every dollar. But, really, almost all his novels are full of economics.

4 0.56949079 1696 andrew gelman stats-2013-01-29-The latest in economics exceptionalism

Introduction: Joseph Delaney writes : Is it fair to quote the definition of economics from the blurb for a book? If so, consider this definition in the blurb for Emily Oster’s new book: When Oster was expecting her first child, she felt powerless to make the right decisions for her pregnancy. How doctors think and what patients need are two very different things. So Oster drew on her own experience and went in search of the real facts about pregnancy using an economist’s tools. Economics is not just a study of finance. It’s the science of determining value and making informed decisions. To make a good decision, you need to understand the information available to you and to know what it means to you as an individual. So, when applied to a medical topic (like pregnancy) how does this differ from evidence based medicine? Should I be calling myself an economist? None of this mean that Emily shouldn’t write this book. My own read on the alcohol and pregnancy angle is that the current advic

5 0.5361349 1035 andrew gelman stats-2011-11-29-“Tobin’s analysis here is methodologically old-fashioned in the sense that no attempt is made to provide microfoundations for the postulated adjustment processes”

Introduction: Rajiv Sethi writes the above in a discussion of a misunderstanding of the economics of Keynes. The discussion is interesting. According to Sethi, Keynes wrote that, in a depression, nominal wages might be sticky but in any case a decline in wages would not do the trick to increase hiring. But many modern economics writers have missed this. For example, Gary Becker writes, “Keynes and many earlier economists emphasized that unemployment rises during recessions because nominal wage rates tend to be inflexible in the downward direction. . . . A fall in price stimulates demand and reduces supply until they are brought back to rough equality.” Whether Becker is empirically correct is another story, but in any case he is misinterpreting Keynes. But the actual reason I’m posting here is in reaction to Sethi’s remark quoted in the title above, in which he endorses a 1975 paper by James Tobin on wages and employment but remarks that Tobin’s paper did not include the individual-level de

6 0.53446621 591 andrew gelman stats-2011-02-25-Quantitative Methods in the Social Sciences M.A.: Innovative, interdisciplinary social science research program for a data-rich world

7 0.5334636 1630 andrew gelman stats-2012-12-18-Postdoc positions at Microsoft Research – NYC

8 0.52591932 1949 andrew gelman stats-2013-07-21-Defensive political science responds defensively to an attack on social science

9 0.50799394 1952 andrew gelman stats-2013-07-23-Christakis response to my comment on his comments on social science (or just skip to the P.P.P.S. at the end)

10 0.50597131 2221 andrew gelman stats-2014-02-23-Postdoc with Huffpost Pollster to do Bayesian poll tracking

11 0.49736893 1555 andrew gelman stats-2012-10-31-Social scientists who use medical analogies to explain causal inference are, I think, implicitly trying to borrow some of the scientific and cultural authority of that field for our own purposes

12 0.49616271 978 andrew gelman stats-2011-10-28-Cool job opening with brilliant researchers at Yahoo

13 0.48229471 2130 andrew gelman stats-2013-12-11-Multilevel marketing as a way of liquidating participants’ social networks

14 0.48207936 1204 andrew gelman stats-2012-03-08-The politics of economic and statistical models

15 0.47802198 769 andrew gelman stats-2011-06-15-Mr. P by another name . . . is still great!

16 0.47754967 1754 andrew gelman stats-2013-03-08-Cool GSS training video! And cumulative file 1972-2012!

17 0.47658467 556 andrew gelman stats-2011-02-04-Patterns

18 0.47475222 1441 andrew gelman stats-2012-08-02-“Based on my experiences, I think you could make general progress by constructing a solution to your specific problem.”

19 0.47325891 1828 andrew gelman stats-2013-04-27-Time-Sharing Experiments for the Social Sciences

20 0.47244215 1271 andrew gelman stats-2012-04-20-Education could use some systematic evaluation


similar blogs computed by lda model

lda for this blog:

topicId topicWeight

[(16, 0.218), (24, 0.088), (50, 0.046), (77, 0.044), (80, 0.063), (86, 0.115), (99, 0.267)]

similar blogs list:

simIndex simValue blogId blogTitle

same-blog 1 0.99180627 185 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-04-Why does anyone support private macroeconomic forecasts?

Introduction: Tyler Cowen asks the above question. I don’t have a full answer, but, in the Economics section of A Quantitative Tour of the Social Sciences , Richard Clarida discusses in detail the ways that researchers have tried to estimate the extent to which government or private forecasts supply additional information.

2 0.93383968 700 andrew gelman stats-2011-05-06-Suspicious pattern of too-strong replications of medical research

Introduction: Howard Wainer writes in the Statistics Forum: The Chinese scientific literature is rarely read or cited outside of China. But the authors of this work are usually knowledgeable of the non-Chinese literature — at least the A-list journals. And so they too try to replicate the alpha finding. But do they? One would think that they would find the same diminished effect size, but they don’t! Instead they replicate the original result, even larger. Here’s one of the graphs: How did this happen? Full story here .

3 0.93360513 609 andrew gelman stats-2011-03-13-Coauthorship norms

Introduction: I followed this link from Chris Blattman to an article by economist Roland Fryer, who writes: I [Fryer] find no evidence that teacher incentives increase student performance, attendance, or graduation, nor do I find any evidence that the incentives change student or teacher behavior. What struck me were not the findings (which, as Fryer notes in his article, are plausible enough) but the use of the word “I” rather than “we.” A field experiment is a big deal, and I was surprised to read that Fryer did it all by himself! Here’s the note of acknowledgments (on the first page of the article): This project would not have been possible without the leadership and support of Joel Klein. I am also grateful to Jennifer Bell-Ellwanger, Joanna Cannon, and Dominique West for their cooperation in collecting the data necessary for this project, and to my colleagues Edward Glaeser, Richard Holden, and Lawrence Katz for helpful comments and discussions. Vilsa E. Curto, Meghan L. Howard,

4 0.93066382 377 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-28-The incoming moderate Republican congressmembers

Introduction: Boris writes : By nearly all accounts, the Republicans looks set to take over the US House of Representatives in next week’s November 2010 general election. . . . Republicans, in this wave election that recalls 1994, look set to win not just swing districts, but also those districts that have been traditionally Democratic, or those with strong or longtime Democratic incumbents. Naturally, just as in 2008, this has led to overclaiming by jubilant conservatives and distraught liberals-though the adjectives were then reversed-that this portends a realignment in American politics. . . . Republican moderates in Congress are often associated with two factors: 1) a liberal voting record earlier in their career, and 2) a liberal district. Of course, both are related, in the sense that ambitious moderates choose liberal districts to run in, and liberal districts weed out conservative candidates. . . . Given how competitive Republicans are in 2010, even in otherwise unfriendly territory,

5 0.92791653 321 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-05-Racism!

Introduction: Last night I spoke at the Columbia Club of New York, along with some of my political science colleagues, in a panel about politics, the economy, and the forthcoming election. The discussion was fine . . . until one guy in the audience accused us of bias based on what he imputed as our ethnicity. One of the panelists replied by asking the questioner what of all the things we had said was biased, and the questioner couldn’t actually supply any examples. It makes sense that the questioner couldn’t come up with a single example of bias on our part, considering that we were actually presenting facts . At some level, the questioner’s imputation of our ethnicity and accusation of bias isn’t so horrible. When talking with my friends, I engage in casual ethnic stereotyping all the time–hey, it’s a free country!–and one can certainly make the statistical argument that you can guess people’s ethnicities from their names, appearance, and speech patterns, and in turn you can infer a lot

6 0.92393279 564 andrew gelman stats-2011-02-08-Different attitudes about parenting, possibly deriving from different attitudes about self

7 0.92391241 1928 andrew gelman stats-2013-07-06-How to think about papers published in low-grade journals?

8 0.92376375 1156 andrew gelman stats-2012-02-06-Bayesian model-building by pure thought: Some principles and examples

9 0.92243606 159 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-23-Popular governor, small state

10 0.92159867 2 andrew gelman stats-2010-04-23-Modeling heterogenous treatment effects

11 0.92068398 445 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-03-Getting a job in pro sports… as a statistician

12 0.92046094 177 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-02-Reintegrating rebels into civilian life: Quasi-experimental evidence from Burundi

13 0.92026895 722 andrew gelman stats-2011-05-20-Why no Wegmania?

14 0.91985679 411 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-13-Ethical concerns in medical trials

15 0.91937637 1330 andrew gelman stats-2012-05-19-Cross-validation to check missing-data imputation

16 0.9187566 1022 andrew gelman stats-2011-11-21-Progress for the Poor

17 0.91875184 960 andrew gelman stats-2011-10-15-The bias-variance tradeoff

18 0.918028 1598 andrew gelman stats-2012-11-30-A graphics talk with no visuals!

19 0.9170959 1025 andrew gelman stats-2011-11-24-Always check your evidence

20 0.91493362 1712 andrew gelman stats-2013-02-07-Philosophy and the practice of Bayesian statistics (with all the discussions!)