andrew_gelman_stats andrew_gelman_stats-2010 andrew_gelman_stats-2010-313 knowledge-graph by maker-knowledge-mining
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Introduction: Don Coffin writes: A colleague of mine and I are doing a presentation for new faculty on a number of topics related to teaching. Our charge is to identify interesting issues and to find research-based information for them about how to approach things. So, what I wondered is, do you know of any published research dealing with the sort of issues about structuring a course and final exam in the ways you talk about in this blog post ? Some poking around in the usual places hasn’t turned anything up yet. I don’t really know the psychometrics literature but I imagine that some good stuff has been written on principles of test design. There are probably some good papers from back in the 1920s. Can anyone supply some references?
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1 Don Coffin writes: A colleague of mine and I are doing a presentation for new faculty on a number of topics related to teaching. [sent-1, score-1.043]
2 Our charge is to identify interesting issues and to find research-based information for them about how to approach things. [sent-2, score-0.886]
3 So, what I wondered is, do you know of any published research dealing with the sort of issues about structuring a course and final exam in the ways you talk about in this blog post ? [sent-3, score-1.974]
4 Some poking around in the usual places hasn’t turned anything up yet. [sent-4, score-0.9]
5 I don’t really know the psychometrics literature but I imagine that some good stuff has been written on principles of test design. [sent-5, score-1.144]
6 There are probably some good papers from back in the 1920s. [sent-6, score-0.379]
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same-blog 1 0.99999994 313 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-03-A question for psychometricians
Introduction: Don Coffin writes: A colleague of mine and I are doing a presentation for new faculty on a number of topics related to teaching. Our charge is to identify interesting issues and to find research-based information for them about how to approach things. So, what I wondered is, do you know of any published research dealing with the sort of issues about structuring a course and final exam in the ways you talk about in this blog post ? Some poking around in the usual places hasn’t turned anything up yet. I don’t really know the psychometrics literature but I imagine that some good stuff has been written on principles of test design. There are probably some good papers from back in the 1920s. Can anyone supply some references?
2 0.20609796 2175 andrew gelman stats-2014-01-18-A course in sample surveys for political science
Introduction: A colleague asked if I had any material for a course in sample surveys. And indeed I do. See here . It’s all the slides for a 14-week course, also the syllabus (“surveyscourse.pdf”), the final exam (“final2012.pdf”) and various misc files. Also more discussion of final exam questions here (keep scrolling thru the “previous entries” until you get to Question 1). Enjoy! This is in no way a self-contained teach-it-yourself course, but I do think it could be helpful for anyone who is trying to teach a class on this material.
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Introduction: Good stuff.
Introduction: Joe Blitzstein and Xiao-Li Meng write : An e ffectively designed examination process goes far beyond revealing students’ knowledge or skills. It also serves as a great teaching and learning tool, incentivizing the students to think more deeply and to connect the dots at a higher level. This extends throughout the entire process: pre-exam preparation, the exam itself, and the post-exam period (the aftermath or, more appropriately, afterstat of the exam). As in the publication process, the first submission is essential but still just one piece in the dialogue. Viewing the entire exam process as an extended dialogue between students and faculty, we discuss ideas for making this dialogue induce more inspiration than perspiration, and thereby making it a memorable deep-learning triumph rather than a wish-to-forget test-taking trauma. We illustrate such a dialogue through a recently introduced course in the Harvard Statistics Department, Stat 399: Problem Solving in Statistics, and tw
Introduction: I had a brief email exchange with Jeff Leek regarding our recent discussions of replication, criticism, and the self-correcting process of science. Jeff writes: (1) I can see the problem with serious, evidence-based criticisms not being published in the same journal (and linked to) studies that are shown to be incorrect. I have been mostly seeing these sorts of things show up in blogs. But I’m not sure that is a bad thing. I think people read blogs more than they read the literature. I wonder if this means that blogs will eventually be a sort of “shadow literature”? (2) I think there is a ton of bad literature out there, just like there is a ton of bad stuff on Google. If we focus too much on the bad stuff we will be paralyzed. I still manage to find good papers despite all the bad papers. (3) I think one positive solution to this problem is to incentivize/publish referee reports and give people credit for a good referee report just like they get credit for a good paper. T
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same-blog 1 0.98334634 313 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-03-A question for psychometricians
Introduction: Don Coffin writes: A colleague of mine and I are doing a presentation for new faculty on a number of topics related to teaching. Our charge is to identify interesting issues and to find research-based information for them about how to approach things. So, what I wondered is, do you know of any published research dealing with the sort of issues about structuring a course and final exam in the ways you talk about in this blog post ? Some poking around in the usual places hasn’t turned anything up yet. I don’t really know the psychometrics literature but I imagine that some good stuff has been written on principles of test design. There are probably some good papers from back in the 1920s. Can anyone supply some references?
2 0.74753612 1138 andrew gelman stats-2012-01-25-Chris Schmid on Evidence Based Medicine
Introduction: Chris Schmid is a statistician at New England Medical Center who is an expert on evidence-based medicine. I invited him to present an introductory overview lecture on the topic at last year’s Joint Statistical Meetings, and here are his slides . All 123 of them. I don’t know how he expected to go though all of these in an hour. You could teach a semester-long course based on this material. Good stuff, I recommend you all read it.
3 0.68143773 1448 andrew gelman stats-2012-08-07-Scientific fraud, double standards and institutions protecting themselves
Introduction: Ole Rogeberg writes: After reading your recent post , I thought you might find this interesting – especially the scanned interview that is included at the bottom of the posting. It’s an old OMNI interview with Walter Stewart that was the first thing I read (at a young and impressionable age ;) about the prevalence of errors, fraud and cheating in science, the institutional barriers to tackling it, the often high personal costs to whistleblowers, the difficulty of accessing scientific data to repeat published analyses, and the surprisingly negative attitude towards criticism within scientific communities. Highly recommended entertaining reading – with some good examples of scientific investigations into implausible effects. The post itself contains the info I once dug up about what happened to him later – he seems like an interesting and very determined guy: when the NIH tried to stop him from investigating scientific errors and fraud he went on a hunger strike. No idea what’s h
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Introduction: Alex Chernavsky writes: I recently came across an interesting blog post , written by someone who is self-taught in statistics (not that there’s anything wrong with that). I have no particular expertise in statistics, but her analysis looks impressive to me. I’d be very interested to find out the opinion of a professional statistician. Do you have any interest in blogging about this subject? My (disappointing, I’m sure) reply: This indeed looks interesting. I don’t have the time/energy to look at it more right now, and it’s too far from any areas of my expertise for me to give any kind of quick informed opinion. It would be good for this sort of discussion to appear in a nutrition journal where the real experts could get at it. I expect there are some strong statisticians who work in that field, although I don’t really know for sure. P.S. I suppose I really should try to learn more about this sort of thing, as it could well affect my life more than a lot of other subje
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Introduction: A colleague asked if I had any material for a course in sample surveys. And indeed I do. See here . It’s all the slides for a 14-week course, also the syllabus (“surveyscourse.pdf”), the final exam (“final2012.pdf”) and various misc files. Also more discussion of final exam questions here (keep scrolling thru the “previous entries” until you get to Question 1). Enjoy! This is in no way a self-contained teach-it-yourself course, but I do think it could be helpful for anyone who is trying to teach a class on this material.
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1 0.95345688 684 andrew gelman stats-2011-04-28-Hierarchical ordered logit or probit
Introduction: Jeff writes: How far off is bglmer and can it handle ordered logit or multinom logit? My reply: bglmer is very close. No ordered logit but I was just talking about it with Sophia today. My guess is that the easiest way to fit a hierarchical ordered logit or multinom logit will be to use stan. For right now I’d recommend using glmer/bglmer to fit the ordered logits in order (e.g., 1 vs. 2,3,4, then 2 vs. 3,4, then 3 vs. 4). Or maybe there’s already a hierarchical multinomial logit in mcmcpack or somewhere?
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Introduction: Don Coffin writes: A colleague of mine and I are doing a presentation for new faculty on a number of topics related to teaching. Our charge is to identify interesting issues and to find research-based information for them about how to approach things. So, what I wondered is, do you know of any published research dealing with the sort of issues about structuring a course and final exam in the ways you talk about in this blog post ? Some poking around in the usual places hasn’t turned anything up yet. I don’t really know the psychometrics literature but I imagine that some good stuff has been written on principles of test design. There are probably some good papers from back in the 1920s. Can anyone supply some references?
3 0.92837548 739 andrew gelman stats-2011-05-31-When Did Girls Start Wearing Pink?
Introduction: That cute picture is of toddler FDR in a dress, from 1884. Jeanne Maglaty writes : A Ladies’ Home Journal article [or maybe from a different source, according to a commenter] in June 1918 said, “The generally accepted rule is pink for the boys, and blue for the girls. The reason is that pink, being a more decided and stronger color, is more suitable for the boy, while blue, which is more delicate and dainty, is prettier for the girl.” Other sources said blue was flattering for blonds, pink for brunettes; or blue was for blue-eyed babies, pink for brown-eyed babies, according to Paoletti. In 1927, Time magazine printed a chart showing sex-appropriate colors for girls and boys according to leading U.S. stores. In Boston, Filene’s told parents to dress boys in pink. So did Best & Co. in New York City, Halle’s in Cleveland and Marshall Field in Chicago. Today’s color dictate wasn’t established until the 1940s . . . When the women’s liberation movement arrived in the mid-1960s, w
4 0.92485011 628 andrew gelman stats-2011-03-25-100-year floods
Introduction: According to the National Weather Service : What is a 100 year flood? A 100 year flood is an event that statistically has a 1% chance of occurring in any given year. A 500 year flood has a .2% chance of occurring and a 1000 year flood has a .1% chance of occurring. The accompanying map shows a part of Tennessee that in May 2010 had 1000-year levels of flooding. At first, it seems hard to believe that a 1000-year flood would have just happened to occur last year. But then, this is just a 1000-year flood for that particular place. I don’t really have a sense of the statistics of these events. How many 100-year, 500-year, and 1000-year flood events have been recorded by the Weather Service, and when have they occurred?
5 0.91542029 782 andrew gelman stats-2011-06-29-Putting together multinomial discrete regressions by combining simple logits
Introduction: When predicting 0/1 data we can use logit (or probit or robit or some other robust model such as invlogit (0.01 + 0.98*X*beta)). Logit is simple enough and we can use bayesglm to regularize and avoid the problem of separation. What if there are more than 2 categories? If they’re ordered (1, 2, 3, etc), we can do ordered logit (and use bayespolr() to avoid separation). If the categories are unordered (vanilla, chocolate, strawberry), there are unordered multinomial logit and probit models out there. But it’s not so easy to fit these multinomial model in a multilevel setting (with coefficients that vary by group), especially if the computation is embedded in an iterative routine such as mi where you have real time constraints at each step. So this got me wondering whether we could kluge it with logits. Here’s the basic idea (in the ordered and unordered forms): - If you have a variable that goes 1, 2, 3, etc., set up a series of logits: 1 vs. 2,3,…; 2 vs. 3,…; and so forth
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