andrew_gelman_stats andrew_gelman_stats-2010 andrew_gelman_stats-2010-407 knowledge-graph by maker-knowledge-mining
Source: html
Introduction: I have this great talk on the above topic but nowhere to give it. Here’s the story. Several months ago, I was invited to speak at IEEE VisWeek. It sounded like a great opportunity. The organizer told me that there were typically about 700 people in the audience, and these are people in the visualization community whom I’d like to reach but normally wouldn’t have the opportunity to encounter. It sounded great, but I didn’t want to fly most of the way across the country by myself, so I offered to give the talk by videolink. I was surprised to get a No response: I’d think that a visualization conference, of all things, would welcome a video talk. In the meantime, though, I’d thought a lot about what I’d talk about and had started preparing something. Once I found out I wouldn’t be giving the talk, I channeled the efforts into an article which, with the collaboration of Antony Unwin, was completed about a month ago. It would take very little effort to adapt this graph-laden a
sentIndex sentText sentNum sentScore
1 I have this great talk on the above topic but nowhere to give it. [sent-1, score-1.02]
2 Several months ago, I was invited to speak at IEEE VisWeek. [sent-3, score-0.318]
3 The organizer told me that there were typically about 700 people in the audience, and these are people in the visualization community whom I’d like to reach but normally wouldn’t have the opportunity to encounter. [sent-5, score-0.784]
4 It sounded great, but I didn’t want to fly most of the way across the country by myself, so I offered to give the talk by videolink. [sent-6, score-1.204]
5 I was surprised to get a No response: I’d think that a visualization conference, of all things, would welcome a video talk. [sent-7, score-0.68]
6 In the meantime, though, I’d thought a lot about what I’d talk about and had started preparing something. [sent-8, score-0.564]
7 Once I found out I wouldn’t be giving the talk, I channeled the efforts into an article which, with the collaboration of Antony Unwin, was completed about a month ago. [sent-9, score-0.617]
8 It would take very little effort to adapt this graph-laden article into a powerpoint presentation. [sent-10, score-0.525]
9 But now I have nowhere to give it, which is too bad as I’d welcome the feedback. [sent-11, score-0.773]
10 So if anyone is interested in hearing this talk, just let me know. [sent-12, score-0.252]
wordName wordTfidf (topN-words)
[('talk', 0.327), ('nowhere', 0.304), ('sounded', 0.285), ('welcome', 0.255), ('visualization', 0.205), ('planes', 0.197), ('ieee', 0.185), ('great', 0.168), ('fly', 0.162), ('powerpoint', 0.158), ('give', 0.156), ('adapt', 0.152), ('preparing', 0.152), ('wouldn', 0.138), ('video', 0.133), ('antony', 0.133), ('normally', 0.13), ('invited', 0.13), ('completed', 0.13), ('unwin', 0.129), ('collaboration', 0.128), ('meantime', 0.12), ('conference', 0.118), ('hearing', 0.118), ('offered', 0.115), ('reach', 0.107), ('efforts', 0.106), ('speak', 0.101), ('community', 0.099), ('audience', 0.097), ('month', 0.094), ('country', 0.09), ('opportunity', 0.088), ('surprised', 0.087), ('months', 0.087), ('started', 0.085), ('giving', 0.082), ('effort', 0.08), ('told', 0.08), ('article', 0.077), ('anyone', 0.076), ('typically', 0.075), ('across', 0.069), ('response', 0.066), ('topic', 0.065), ('several', 0.061), ('interested', 0.058), ('bad', 0.058), ('little', 0.058), ('ago', 0.056)]
simIndex simValue blogId blogTitle
same-blog 1 1.0 407 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-11-Data Visualization vs. Statistical Graphics
Introduction: I have this great talk on the above topic but nowhere to give it. Here’s the story. Several months ago, I was invited to speak at IEEE VisWeek. It sounded like a great opportunity. The organizer told me that there were typically about 700 people in the audience, and these are people in the visualization community whom I’d like to reach but normally wouldn’t have the opportunity to encounter. It sounded great, but I didn’t want to fly most of the way across the country by myself, so I offered to give the talk by videolink. I was surprised to get a No response: I’d think that a visualization conference, of all things, would welcome a video talk. In the meantime, though, I’d thought a lot about what I’d talk about and had started preparing something. Once I found out I wouldn’t be giving the talk, I channeled the efforts into an article which, with the collaboration of Antony Unwin, was completed about a month ago. It would take very little effort to adapt this graph-laden a
2 0.22289932 2275 andrew gelman stats-2014-03-31-Just gave a talk
Introduction: I just gave a talk in Milan. Actually I was sitting at my desk, it was a g+ hangout which was a bit more convenient for me. The audience was a bunch of astronomers so I figured they could handle a satellite link. . . . Anyway, the talk didn’t go so well. Two reasons: first, it’s just hard to get the connection with the audience without being able to see their faces. Next time I think I’ll try to get several people in the audience to open up their laptops and connect to the hangout, so that I can see a mosaic of faces instead of just a single image from the front of the room. The second problem with the talk was the topic. I asked the people who invited me to choose a topic, and they picked Can we use Bayesian methods to resolve the current crisis of statistically-significant research findings that don’t hold up? But I don’t think this was right for this audience. I think that it would’ve been better to give them the Stan talk or the little data talk or the statistic
3 0.20228086 548 andrew gelman stats-2011-02-01-What goes around . . .
Introduction: A few weeks ago I delivered a 10-minute talk on statistical graphics that went so well, it was the best-received talk I’ve ever given. The crowd was raucous. Then some poor sap had to go on after me. He started by saying that my talk was a hard act to follow. And, indeed, the audience politely listened but did not really get involved in his presentation. Boy did I feel smug. More recently I gave a talk on Stan, at an entirely different venue. And this time the story was the exact opposite. Jim Demmel spoke first and gave a wonderful talk on optimization for linear algebra (it was an applied math conference). Then I followed, and I never really grabbed the crowd. My talk was not a disaster but it didn’t really work. This was particularly frustrating because I’m really excited about Stan and this was a group of researchers I wouldn’t usually have a chance to reach. It was the plenary session at the conference. Anyway, now I know how that guy felt from last month. My talk
4 0.16415131 225 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-23-Getting into hot water over hot graphics
Introduction: I like what Antony Unwin has to say here (start on page 5).
5 0.14990424 396 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-05-Journalism in the age of data
Introduction: Journalism in the age of data is a video report including interviews with many visualization people. It’s also a great example of how citations, and further information appear alongside with the video – showing us the future of video content online.
6 0.13907513 438 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-30-I just skyped in from Kentucky, and boy are my arms tired
7 0.13219611 816 andrew gelman stats-2011-07-22-“Information visualization” vs. “Statistical graphics”
9 0.11938097 2229 andrew gelman stats-2014-02-28-God-leaf-tree
10 0.11331852 2116 andrew gelman stats-2013-11-28-“Statistics is what people think math is”
11 0.11036861 1450 andrew gelman stats-2012-08-08-My upcoming talk for the data visualization meetup
12 0.10838333 1673 andrew gelman stats-2013-01-15-My talk last night at the visualization meetup
13 0.10657461 1824 andrew gelman stats-2013-04-25-Fascinating graphs from facebook data
14 0.10567258 1821 andrew gelman stats-2013-04-24-My talk midtown this Friday noon (and at Columbia Monday afternoon)
15 0.10291807 194 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-09-Data Visualization
16 0.10260846 583 andrew gelman stats-2011-02-21-An interesting assignment for statistical graphics
17 0.10177521 546 andrew gelman stats-2011-01-31-Infovis vs. statistical graphics: My talk tomorrow (Tues) 1pm at Columbia
18 0.10072124 492 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-30-That puzzle-solving feeling
19 0.095252626 1811 andrew gelman stats-2013-04-18-Psychology experiments to understand what’s going on with data graphics?
20 0.093614861 1658 andrew gelman stats-2013-01-07-Free advice from an academic writing coach!
topicId topicWeight
[(0, 0.122), (1, -0.073), (2, -0.065), (3, 0.06), (4, 0.051), (5, -0.009), (6, -0.025), (7, 0.027), (8, -0.03), (9, -0.043), (10, -0.01), (11, -0.008), (12, 0.022), (13, 0.015), (14, 0.0), (15, -0.074), (16, -0.022), (17, -0.068), (18, 0.031), (19, 0.075), (20, -0.103), (21, -0.097), (22, 0.094), (23, -0.013), (24, -0.04), (25, -0.012), (26, -0.115), (27, -0.092), (28, 0.037), (29, -0.014), (30, -0.034), (31, 0.007), (32, 0.03), (33, -0.023), (34, 0.042), (35, -0.025), (36, 0.085), (37, 0.006), (38, 0.039), (39, -0.008), (40, -0.033), (41, -0.016), (42, 0.067), (43, 0.029), (44, 0.033), (45, -0.011), (46, 0.052), (47, -0.011), (48, -0.028), (49, 0.005)]
simIndex simValue blogId blogTitle
same-blog 1 0.97456896 407 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-11-Data Visualization vs. Statistical Graphics
Introduction: I have this great talk on the above topic but nowhere to give it. Here’s the story. Several months ago, I was invited to speak at IEEE VisWeek. It sounded like a great opportunity. The organizer told me that there were typically about 700 people in the audience, and these are people in the visualization community whom I’d like to reach but normally wouldn’t have the opportunity to encounter. It sounded great, but I didn’t want to fly most of the way across the country by myself, so I offered to give the talk by videolink. I was surprised to get a No response: I’d think that a visualization conference, of all things, would welcome a video talk. In the meantime, though, I’d thought a lot about what I’d talk about and had started preparing something. Once I found out I wouldn’t be giving the talk, I channeled the efforts into an article which, with the collaboration of Antony Unwin, was completed about a month ago. It would take very little effort to adapt this graph-laden a
2 0.90165097 1598 andrew gelman stats-2012-11-30-A graphics talk with no visuals!
Introduction: So, I’m at MIT, twenty minutes into my talk on tradeoffs in information graphics to the computer scientists, when the power goes out. They had some dim backup lighting so we weren’t all sitting there in the dark, but the projector wasn’t working. So I took questions for the remaining 40 minutes. It went well, perhaps better than the actual talk would’ve gone, even though they didn’t get to see most of my slides .
3 0.8642751 548 andrew gelman stats-2011-02-01-What goes around . . .
Introduction: A few weeks ago I delivered a 10-minute talk on statistical graphics that went so well, it was the best-received talk I’ve ever given. The crowd was raucous. Then some poor sap had to go on after me. He started by saying that my talk was a hard act to follow. And, indeed, the audience politely listened but did not really get involved in his presentation. Boy did I feel smug. More recently I gave a talk on Stan, at an entirely different venue. And this time the story was the exact opposite. Jim Demmel spoke first and gave a wonderful talk on optimization for linear algebra (it was an applied math conference). Then I followed, and I never really grabbed the crowd. My talk was not a disaster but it didn’t really work. This was particularly frustrating because I’m really excited about Stan and this was a group of researchers I wouldn’t usually have a chance to reach. It was the plenary session at the conference. Anyway, now I know how that guy felt from last month. My talk
4 0.8493849 2275 andrew gelman stats-2014-03-31-Just gave a talk
Introduction: I just gave a talk in Milan. Actually I was sitting at my desk, it was a g+ hangout which was a bit more convenient for me. The audience was a bunch of astronomers so I figured they could handle a satellite link. . . . Anyway, the talk didn’t go so well. Two reasons: first, it’s just hard to get the connection with the audience without being able to see their faces. Next time I think I’ll try to get several people in the audience to open up their laptops and connect to the hangout, so that I can see a mosaic of faces instead of just a single image from the front of the room. The second problem with the talk was the topic. I asked the people who invited me to choose a topic, and they picked Can we use Bayesian methods to resolve the current crisis of statistically-significant research findings that don’t hold up? But I don’t think this was right for this audience. I think that it would’ve been better to give them the Stan talk or the little data talk or the statistic
5 0.84006411 1143 andrew gelman stats-2012-01-29-G+ > Skype
Introduction: I spoke at the University of Kansas the other day. Kansas is far away so I gave the talk by video. We did it using a G+ hangout, and it worked really well, much much better than when I gave a talk via Skype . With G+, I could see and hear the audience clearly, and they could hear me just fine while seeing my slides (or my face, I went back and forth). Not as good as a live presentation but pretty good, considering. P.S. And here’s how to do it! Conflict of interest disclaimer: I was paid by Google last year to give a short course.
6 0.80250508 1821 andrew gelman stats-2013-04-24-My talk midtown this Friday noon (and at Columbia Monday afternoon)
7 0.80210185 2039 andrew gelman stats-2013-09-25-Harmonic convergence
8 0.80102372 1073 andrew gelman stats-2011-12-20-Not quite getting the point
9 0.78747326 438 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-30-I just skyped in from Kentucky, and boy are my arms tired
10 0.78606677 1673 andrew gelman stats-2013-01-15-My talk last night at the visualization meetup
11 0.76964217 699 andrew gelman stats-2011-05-06-Another stereotype demolished
12 0.75457644 1526 andrew gelman stats-2012-10-09-Little Data: How traditional statistical ideas remain relevant in a big-data world
13 0.74880612 1824 andrew gelman stats-2013-04-25-Fascinating graphs from facebook data
14 0.73436707 492 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-30-That puzzle-solving feeling
15 0.73050112 1050 andrew gelman stats-2011-12-10-Presenting at the econ seminar
16 0.71180749 2323 andrew gelman stats-2014-05-07-Cause he thinks he’s so-phisticated
17 0.66113055 913 andrew gelman stats-2011-09-16-Groundhog day in August?
18 0.64993614 1450 andrew gelman stats-2012-08-08-My upcoming talk for the data visualization meetup
19 0.64635324 2116 andrew gelman stats-2013-11-28-“Statistics is what people think math is”
20 0.6447739 239 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-28-The mathematics of democracy
topicId topicWeight
[(5, 0.018), (16, 0.096), (18, 0.018), (21, 0.015), (24, 0.142), (47, 0.018), (65, 0.018), (82, 0.018), (86, 0.024), (87, 0.034), (89, 0.272), (99, 0.215)]
simIndex simValue blogId blogTitle
1 0.96285129 1215 andrew gelman stats-2012-03-16-The “hot hand” and problems with hypothesis testing
Introduction: Gur Yaari writes : Anyone who has ever watched a sports competition is familiar with expressions like “on fire”, “in the zone”, “on a roll”, “momentum” and so on. But what do these expressions really mean? In 1985 when Thomas Gilovich, Robert Vallone and Amos Tversky studied this phenomenon for the first time, they defined it as: “. . . these phrases express a belief that the performance of a player during a particular period is significantly better than expected on the basis of the player’s overall record”. Their conclusion was that what people tend to perceive as a “hot hand” is essentially a cognitive illusion caused by a misperception of random sequences. Until recently there was little, if any, evidence to rule out their conclusion. Increased computing power and new data availability from various sports now provide surprising evidence of this phenomenon, thus reigniting the debate. Yaari goes on to some studies that have found time dependence in basketball, baseball, voll
2 0.95986086 1160 andrew gelman stats-2012-02-09-Familial Linkage between Neuropsychiatric Disorders and Intellectual Interests
Introduction: When I spoke at Princeton last year, I talked with neuroscientist Sam Wang, who told me about a project he did surveying incoming Princeton freshmen about mental illness in their families. He and his coauthor Benjamin Campbell found some interesting results, which they just published : A link between intellect and temperament has long been the subject of speculation. . . . Studies of the artistically inclined report linkage with familial depression, while among eminent and creative scientists, a lower incidence of affective disorders is found. In the case of developmental disorders, a heightened prevalence of autism spectrum disorders (ASDs) has been found in the families of mathematicians, physicists, and engineers. . . . We surveyed the incoming class of 2014 at Princeton University about their intended academic major, familial incidence of neuropsychiatric disorders, and demographic variables. . . . Consistent with prior findings, we noticed a relation between intended academ
3 0.94963408 2243 andrew gelman stats-2014-03-11-The myth of the myth of the myth of the hot hand
Introduction: Phil pointed me to this paper so I thought I probably better repeat what I wrote a couple years ago: 1. The effects are certainly not zero. We are not machines, and anything that can affect our expectations (for example, our success in previous tries) should affect our performance. 2. The effects I’ve seen are small, on the order of 2 percentage points (for example, the probability of a success in some sports task might be 45% if you’re “hot” and 43% otherwise). 3. There’s a huge amount of variation, not just between but also among players. Sometimes if you succeed you will stay relaxed and focused, other times you can succeed and get overconfidence. 4. Whatever the latest results on particular sports, I can’t see anyone overturning the basic finding of Gilovich, Vallone, and Tversky that players and spectators alike will perceive the hot hand even when it does not exist and dramatically overestimate the magnitude and consistency of any hot-hand phenomenon that does exist.
4 0.94724143 1756 andrew gelman stats-2013-03-10-He said he was sorry
Introduction: Yes, it can be done : Hereby I contact you to clarify the situation that occurred with the publication of the article entitled *** which was published in Volume 11, Issue 3 of *** and I made the mistake of declaring as an author. This chapter is a plagiarism of . . . I wish to express and acknowledge that I am solely responsible for this . . . I recognize the gravity of the offense committed, since there is no justification for so doing. Therefore, and as a sign of shame and regret I feel in this situation, I will publish this letter, in order to set an example for other researchers do not engage in a similar error. No more, and to please accept my apologies, Sincerely, *** P.S. Since we’re on Retraction Watch already, I’ll point you to this unrelated story featuring a hilarious photo of a fraudster, who in this case was a grad student in psychology who faked his data and “has agreed to submit to a three-year supervisory period for any work involving funding from the
5 0.9458859 1477 andrew gelman stats-2012-08-30-Visualizing Distributions of Covariance Matrices
Introduction: Since we’ve been discussing prior distributions on covariance matrices, I will recommend this recent article (coauthored with Tomoki Tokuda, Ben Goodrich, Iven Van Mechelen, and Francis Tuerlinckx) on their visualization: We present some methods for graphing distributions of covariance matrices and demonstrate them on several models, including the Wishart, inverse-Wishart, and scaled inverse-Wishart families in different dimensions. Our visualizations follow the principle of decomposing a covariance matrix into scale parameters and correlations, pulling out marginal summaries where possible and using two and three-dimensional plots to reveal multivariate structure. Visualizing a distribution of covariance matrices is a step beyond visualizing a single covariance matrix or a single multivariate dataset. Our visualization methods are available through the R package VisCov.
7 0.93597972 1685 andrew gelman stats-2013-01-21-Class on computational social science this semester, Fridays, 1:00-3:40pm
8 0.92444837 833 andrew gelman stats-2011-07-31-Untunable Metropolis
9 0.90811324 459 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-09-Solve mazes by starting at the exit
same-blog 10 0.8950972 407 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-11-Data Visualization vs. Statistical Graphics
11 0.89475292 1953 andrew gelman stats-2013-07-24-Recently in the sister blog
12 0.85746396 1855 andrew gelman stats-2013-05-13-Stan!
13 0.84484053 1991 andrew gelman stats-2013-08-21-BDA3 table of contents (also a new paper on visualization)
14 0.84441674 1572 andrew gelman stats-2012-11-10-I don’t like this cartoon
15 0.83042896 623 andrew gelman stats-2011-03-21-Baseball’s greatest fielders
16 0.83042514 1320 andrew gelman stats-2012-05-14-Question 4 of my final exam for Design and Analysis of Sample Surveys
17 0.82844043 566 andrew gelman stats-2011-02-09-The boxer, the wrestler, and the coin flip, again
18 0.82208723 231 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-24-Yet another Bayesian job opportunity
19 0.81114399 1839 andrew gelman stats-2013-05-04-Jesus historian Niall Ferguson and the improving standards of public discourse
20 0.81059515 1032 andrew gelman stats-2011-11-28-Does Avastin work on breast cancer? Should Medicare be paying for it?