andrew_gelman_stats andrew_gelman_stats-2010 andrew_gelman_stats-2010-471 knowledge-graph by maker-knowledge-mining
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Introduction: I have agreed to do a local art exhibition in February. An excuse to think about form, colour and style for plotting almost individual observation likelihoods – while invoking the artists privilege of refusing to give interpretations of their own work. In order to make it possibly less dry I’ll try to use intuitive suggestive captions like in this example TheTyranyof13.pdf thereby side stepping the technical discussions like here RadfordNealBlog Suggested models and data sets (or even submissions) would be most appreciated. I likely be sticking to realism i.e. plots that represent ‘statistical reality’ faithfully. K?
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same-blog 1 0.99999994 471 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-17-Attractive models (and data) wanted for statistical art show.
Introduction: I have agreed to do a local art exhibition in February. An excuse to think about form, colour and style for plotting almost individual observation likelihoods – while invoking the artists privilege of refusing to give interpretations of their own work. In order to make it possibly less dry I’ll try to use intuitive suggestive captions like in this example TheTyranyof13.pdf thereby side stepping the technical discussions like here RadfordNealBlog Suggested models and data sets (or even submissions) would be most appreciated. I likely be sticking to realism i.e. plots that represent ‘statistical reality’ faithfully. K?
Introduction: Jed Dougherty points me to this opinion piece by Jacqueline Stevens, a professor of art at Northwestern University, who writes: Artists are defensive these days because in May the House passed an amendment to a bill eliminating the National Endowment for the Arts. Colleagues, especially those who have received N.E.A. grants, will loathe me for saying this, but just this once I’m sympathetic with the anti-intellectual Republicans behind this amendment. Why? The bill incited a national conversation about a subject that has troubled me for decades: the government — disproportionately — supports art that I do not like. Actually, just about nobody likes modern art. All those soup cans—what’s that all about? The stuff they have in museums nowadays, my 4-year-old could do better than that. Two-thirds of so-called modern artists are drunk and two-thirds are frauds. And, no, I didn’t get my math wrong—there’s just a lot of overlap among these categories! It’s an open secret in my
3 0.10732695 1785 andrew gelman stats-2013-04-02-So much artistic talent
Introduction: I saw this excellent art show the other day, and it reminded me how much artistic talent is out there. I really have no idea whassup with those all-black canvases and the other stuff you see at modern art museums, given that there’s so much interesting new stuff being created every year. I see a big difference between art made by people who feel they have something they want to say, compared to art being made by people who feel they are supposed to make art because they’re artists. And there’s also the internal logic of art responding to other art, as Tom Wolfe discussed in The Painted Word.
4 0.087788507 102 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-21-Why modern art is all in the mind
Introduction: This looks cool: Ten years ago researchers in America took two groups of three-year-olds and showed them a blob of paint on a canvas. Children who were told that the marks were the result of an accidental spillage showed little interest. The others, who had been told that the splodge of colour had been carefully created for them, started to refer to it as “a painting”. Now that experiment . . . has gone on to form part of the foundation of an influential new book that questions the way in which we respond to art. . . . The book, which is subtitled The New Science of Why We Like What We Like, is not an attack on modern or contemporary art and Bloom says fans of more traditional art are not capable of making purely aesthetic judgments either. “I don’t have a strong position about the art itself,” he said this weekend. “But I do have a strong position about why we actually like it.” This sounds fascinating. But I’m skeptical about this part: Humans are incapable of just getti
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Introduction: This seems like the sort of thing I would like: Drawing from My Mind’s Eye: Dorothea Rockburne in Conversation with David Cohen Introduced by Nina Samuel Thursday, November 29 6 pm BGC, 38 West 86th Street Benoît Mandelbrot, unusual among mathematicians of the twentieth century, harnessed the power of visual images to express his theories and to pursue new lines of thought. In this conversation artist Dorothea Rockburne will share memories of studying with mathematician Max Dehn at Black Mountain College, of meeting Mandelbrot, and discuss her recent work. Exhibition curator Nina Samuel will discuss the related exhibition “The Islands of Benoît Mandelbrot: Fractals, Chaos, and the Materiality of Thinking,” on view in the BGC Focus Gallery through January 27, 2013. David Cohen is editor and publisher of artcritical.com as well as founder and moderator of The Review Panel. Dorothea Rockburne is a distinguished artist whose work has been inspired by her lifelong st
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Introduction: I have agreed to do a local art exhibition in February. An excuse to think about form, colour and style for plotting almost individual observation likelihoods – while invoking the artists privilege of refusing to give interpretations of their own work. In order to make it possibly less dry I’ll try to use intuitive suggestive captions like in this example TheTyranyof13.pdf thereby side stepping the technical discussions like here RadfordNealBlog Suggested models and data sets (or even submissions) would be most appreciated. I likely be sticking to realism i.e. plots that represent ‘statistical reality’ faithfully. K?
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Introduction: “Explanation” is this thing that social scientists (or people in their everyday lives, acting like social scientists) do, where some event X happens and we supply a coherent story that concludes with X. Sometimes we speak of an event as “overdetermined,” when we can think of many plausible stories that all lead to X. My question today is: what is explanation, in a statistical sense? To understand why this is a question worth asking at all, compare to prediction. Prediction is another thing that we all to, typically in a qualitative fashion: I think she’s gonna win this struggle, I think he’s probably gonna look for a new job, etc. It’s pretty clear how to map everyday prediction into a statistical framework, and we can think of informal qualitative predictions as approximations to the predictions that could be made by a statistical model (as in the classic work of Meehl and others on clinical vs. statistical prediction). Fitting “explanation” into a statistical framework i
3 0.71912527 1412 andrew gelman stats-2012-07-10-More questions on the contagion of obesity, height, etc.
Introduction: AT discusses [link broken; see P.P.S. below] a new paper of his that casts doubt on the robustness of the controversial Christakis and Fowler papers. AT writes that he ran some simulations of contagion on social networks and found that (a) in a simple model assuming the contagion of the sort hypothesized by Christakis and Fowler, their procedure would indeed give the sorts of estimates they found in their papers, but (b) in another simple model assuming a different sort of contagion, the C&F; estimation would give indistinguishable estimates. Thus, if you believe AT’s simulation model, C&F;’s procedure cannot statistically distinguish between two sorts of contagion (directional and simultaneous). I have not looked at AT’s paper so I can’t fully comment, but I don’t fully understand his method for simulating network connections. AT uses what he calls a “rewiring” model. This makes sense: as time progresses, we make new friends and lose old ones—but I am confused by the details
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Introduction: Thomas Basbøll [yes, I've learned how to smoothly do this using alt-o] gives some writing advice : What gives a text presence is our commitment to asserting facts. We have to face the possibility that we may be wrong about them resolutely, and we do this by writing about them as though we are right. This and an earlier remark by Basbøll are closely related in my mind to predictive model checking and to Bayesian statistics : we make strong assumptions and then engage the data and the assumptions in a dialogue: assumptions + data -> inference, and we can then compare the inference to the data which can reveal problems with our model (or problems with the data, but that’s really problems with the model too, in this case problems with the model for the data). I like the idea that a condition for a story to be useful is that we put some belief into it. (One doesn’t put belief into a joke.) And also the converse, that thnking hard about a story and believing it can be the pre
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Introduction: Aki writes: Here’s my version of the birthday frequency graph . I used Gaussian process with two slowly varying components and periodic component with decay, so that periodic form can change in time. I used Student’s t-distribution as observation model to allow exceptional dates to be outliers. I guess that periodic component due to week effect is still in the data because there is data only from twenty years. Naturally it would be better to model the whole timeseries, but it was easier to just use the cvs by Mulligan. ALl I can say is . . . wow. Bayes wins again. Maybe Aki can supply the R or Matlab code? P.S. And let’s not forget how great the simple and clear time series plots are, compared to various fancy visualizations that people might try. P.P.S. More here .
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