andrew_gelman_stats andrew_gelman_stats-2010 andrew_gelman_stats-2010-260 knowledge-graph by maker-knowledge-mining
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Introduction: Dave Berri writes: Saw you had a post on the research I did with Rob Simmons on the NFL draft. I have attached the article. This article has not officially been published, so please don’t post this on-line. The post you linked to states the following: “On his blog, Berri says he restricts the analysis to QBs who have played more than 500 downs, or for 5 years. He also looks at per-play statistics, like touchdowns per game, to counter what he considers an opportunity bias.” Two points: First of all, we did not look at touchdowns per game (that is not a per play stat). More importantly — as this post indicates — we did far more than just look at data after five years. We did mention the five year result, but directly below that discussion (and I mean, directly below), the following sentences appear. Our data set runs from 1970 to 2007 (adjustments were made for how performance changed over time). We also looked at career performance after 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, and 8 years
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1 Dave Berri writes: Saw you had a post on the research I did with Rob Simmons on the NFL draft. [sent-1, score-0.257]
2 This article has not officially been published, so please don’t post this on-line. [sent-3, score-0.388]
3 The post you linked to states the following: “On his blog, Berri says he restricts the analysis to QBs who have played more than 500 downs, or for 5 years. [sent-4, score-0.588]
4 He also looks at per-play statistics, like touchdowns per game, to counter what he considers an opportunity bias. [sent-5, score-0.979]
5 ” Two points: First of all, we did not look at touchdowns per game (that is not a per play stat). [sent-6, score-1.039]
6 More importantly — as this post indicates — we did far more than just look at data after five years. [sent-7, score-0.716]
7 We did mention the five year result, but directly below that discussion (and I mean, directly below), the following sentences appear. [sent-8, score-0.787]
8 Our data set runs from 1970 to 2007 (adjustments were made for how performance changed over time). [sent-9, score-0.419]
9 We also looked at career performance after 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, and 8 years. [sent-10, score-0.485]
10 In addition, we also looked at what a player did in each year from 1 to 10. [sent-11, score-0.454]
11 And with each data set our story looks essentially the same. [sent-12, score-0.216]
12 The above stats are not really correlated with draft position. [sent-13, score-0.293]
13 This analysis was also updated and discussed in this post (posted on-line last May). [sent-14, score-0.475]
14 Hopefully that post will also help you see the point Rob and I are making. [sent-15, score-0.366]
15 I’m out of my depth on this football stuff so I’ll leave it to you, the commenters. [sent-16, score-0.321]
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Introduction: Dave Berri writes: Saw you had a post on the research I did with Rob Simmons on the NFL draft. I have attached the article. This article has not officially been published, so please don’t post this on-line. The post you linked to states the following: “On his blog, Berri says he restricts the analysis to QBs who have played more than 500 downs, or for 5 years. He also looks at per-play statistics, like touchdowns per game, to counter what he considers an opportunity bias.” Two points: First of all, we did not look at touchdowns per game (that is not a per play stat). More importantly — as this post indicates — we did far more than just look at data after five years. We did mention the five year result, but directly below that discussion (and I mean, directly below), the following sentences appear. Our data set runs from 1970 to 2007 (adjustments were made for how performance changed over time). We also looked at career performance after 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, and 8 years
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Introduction: Sports researcher Dave Berri had a disagreement with a remark in our recent discussion of Malcolm Gladwell. Berri writes: This post [from Gelman] contains the following paragraph: Similarly, when Gladwell claimed that NFL quarterback performance is unrelated to the order they were drafted out of college, he appears to have been wrong. But if you take his writing as stone soup, maybe it’s valuable: just retreat to the statement that there’s only a weak relationship between draft order and NFL performance. That alone is interesting. It’s too bad that Gladwell sometimes has to make false general statements in order to get our attention, but maybe that’s what is needed to shake people out of their mental complacency. The above paragraph links to a blog post by Eric Loken. This is something you have linked to before. And when you linked to it before I tried to explain why Loken’s work is not very good. Since you still think this work shows that Gladwell – and therefore Rob
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Introduction: I just happened to notice this from last year. Eric Loken writes : Steven Pinker reviewed Malcolm Gladwell’s latest book and criticized him rather harshly for several shortcomings. Gladwell appears to have made things worse for himself in a letter to the editor of the NYT by defending a manifestly weak claim from one of his essays – the claim that NFL quarterback performance is unrelated to the order they were drafted out of college. The reason w [Loken and his colleagues] are implicated is that Pinker identified an earlier blog post of ours as one of three sources he used to challenge Gladwell (yay us!). But Gladwell either misrepresented or misunderstood our post in his response, and admonishes Pinker by saying “we should agree that our differences owe less to what can be found in the scientific literature than they do to what can be found on Google.” Well, here’s what you can find on Google. Follow this link to request the data for NFL quarterbacks drafted between 1980 and
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Introduction: Dave Berri writes : A recent study published in the Social Science Quarterly suggests that these moves may not lead to the happiness the fans envision (HT: the Sports Economist). E. Scott Adler, Michael J. Berry, and David Doherty looked at coaching changes from 1997 to 2010. What they found should give pause to people who demanded a coaching change (or still hope for one). Here is how these authors summarize their findings: . . . we use matching techniques to compare the performance of football programs that replaced their head coach to those where the coach was retained. The analysis has two major innovations over existing literature. First, we consider how entry conditions moderate the effects of coaching replacements. Second, we examine team performance for several years following the replacement to assess its effects. We find that for particularly poorly performing teams, coach replacements have little effect on team performance as measured against comparable teams that
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Introduction: Posted at MediaBistro: The Harvard Sports Analysis Collective are the group that tackles problems such as “ Who wrote this column: Bill Simmons, Rick Reilly, or Kevin Whitlock? ” and “ Should a football team give up free touchdowns? ” It’s all fun and games, until the students land jobs with major teams. According to the Harvard Crimson , sophomore John Ezekowitz and junior Jason Rosenfeld scored gigs with the Phoenix Suns and the Shanghai Sharks, respectively, in part based on their work for HSAC. It’s perhaps not a huge surprise that the Sharks would be interested in taking advantage of every available statistic. They are owned by Yao Ming, who plays for the Houston Rockets. The Rockets, in turn, employ general manager Daryl Morey who Simmons nicknamed “Dork Elvis” for his ahead of the curve analysis. (See Michael Lewis ‘ The No Stats All-Star for an example.) But still, it’s very cool to see the pair get an opportunity to change the game.
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Introduction: Dave Berri writes: Saw you had a post on the research I did with Rob Simmons on the NFL draft. I have attached the article. This article has not officially been published, so please don’t post this on-line. The post you linked to states the following: “On his blog, Berri says he restricts the analysis to QBs who have played more than 500 downs, or for 5 years. He also looks at per-play statistics, like touchdowns per game, to counter what he considers an opportunity bias.” Two points: First of all, we did not look at touchdowns per game (that is not a per play stat). More importantly — as this post indicates — we did far more than just look at data after five years. We did mention the five year result, but directly below that discussion (and I mean, directly below), the following sentences appear. Our data set runs from 1970 to 2007 (adjustments were made for how performance changed over time). We also looked at career performance after 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, and 8 years
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Introduction: I just happened to notice this from last year. Eric Loken writes : Steven Pinker reviewed Malcolm Gladwell’s latest book and criticized him rather harshly for several shortcomings. Gladwell appears to have made things worse for himself in a letter to the editor of the NYT by defending a manifestly weak claim from one of his essays – the claim that NFL quarterback performance is unrelated to the order they were drafted out of college. The reason w [Loken and his colleagues] are implicated is that Pinker identified an earlier blog post of ours as one of three sources he used to challenge Gladwell (yay us!). But Gladwell either misrepresented or misunderstood our post in his response, and admonishes Pinker by saying “we should agree that our differences owe less to what can be found in the scientific literature than they do to what can be found on Google.” Well, here’s what you can find on Google. Follow this link to request the data for NFL quarterbacks drafted between 1980 and
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Introduction: Posted at MediaBistro: The Harvard Sports Analysis Collective are the group that tackles problems such as “ Who wrote this column: Bill Simmons, Rick Reilly, or Kevin Whitlock? ” and “ Should a football team give up free touchdowns? ” It’s all fun and games, until the students land jobs with major teams. According to the Harvard Crimson , sophomore John Ezekowitz and junior Jason Rosenfeld scored gigs with the Phoenix Suns and the Shanghai Sharks, respectively, in part based on their work for HSAC. It’s perhaps not a huge surprise that the Sharks would be interested in taking advantage of every available statistic. They are owned by Yao Ming, who plays for the Houston Rockets. The Rockets, in turn, employ general manager Daryl Morey who Simmons nicknamed “Dork Elvis” for his ahead of the curve analysis. (See Michael Lewis ‘ The No Stats All-Star for an example.) But still, it’s very cool to see the pair get an opportunity to change the game.
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Introduction: Dave Berri writes: Saw you had a post on the research I did with Rob Simmons on the NFL draft. I have attached the article. This article has not officially been published, so please don’t post this on-line. The post you linked to states the following: “On his blog, Berri says he restricts the analysis to QBs who have played more than 500 downs, or for 5 years. He also looks at per-play statistics, like touchdowns per game, to counter what he considers an opportunity bias.” Two points: First of all, we did not look at touchdowns per game (that is not a per play stat). More importantly — as this post indicates — we did far more than just look at data after five years. We did mention the five year result, but directly below that discussion (and I mean, directly below), the following sentences appear. Our data set runs from 1970 to 2007 (adjustments were made for how performance changed over time). We also looked at career performance after 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, and 8 years
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