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299 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-27-what is = what “should be” ??


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Introduction: This hidden assumption is a biggie.


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Introduction: This hidden assumption is a biggie.

2 0.21705963 1788 andrew gelman stats-2013-04-04-When is there “hidden structure in data” to be discovered?

Introduction: Michael Collins sent along the following announcement for a talk: Fast learning algorithms for discovering the hidden structure in data Daniel Hsu, Microsoft Research 11am, Wednesday April 10th, Interschool lab, 7th floor CEPSR, Columbia University A major challenge in machine learning is to reliably and automatically discover hidden structure in data with minimal human intervention. For instance, one may be interested in understanding the stratification of a population into subgroups, the thematic make-up of a collection of documents, or the dynamical process governing a complex time series. Many of the core statistical estimation problems for these applications are, in general, provably intractable for both computational and statistical reasons; and therefore progress is made by shifting the focus to realistic instances that rule out the intractable cases. In this talk, I’ll describe a general computational approach for correctly estimating a wide class of statistical mod

3 0.16783582 2032 andrew gelman stats-2013-09-20-“Six red flags for suspect work”

Introduction: Raghu Parthasarathy sends along this article by C. Glenn Begley listing six questions to ask when worried about unreplicable work in biology: Were experiments performed blinded? (Even animal studies should be blinded when it comes to the recording and interpretation of the data—do you hear that, Mark Hauser?) Were basic experiments repeated? (“If reports fail to state that experiments were repeated, be sceptical.”) Were all the results presented? (That one’s a biggie .) Were there positive and negative controls? (He offers some details from lab experiments.) Were reagents validated? (Whatever.) Were statistical tests appropriate? (I don’t like the idea of statistical “tests” at all, but I agree with his general point.)

4 0.10279392 1704 andrew gelman stats-2013-02-03-Heuristics for identifying ecological fallacies?

Introduction: Greg Laughlin writes: My company just wrote a blog post about the ecological fallacy. There’s a discussion about it on the Hacker News message board. Someone asks, “How do you know [if a group-level finding shouldn't be used to describe individual level behavior]?” The best answer I had was “you can never tell without the individual-level data, you should always be suspicious of group-level findings applied to individuals.” Am I missing anything? Are there any situations in which you can look at group-level qualities being ascribed to individuals and not have to fear the ecological fallacy? My reply: I think that’s right. To put it another way, consider the larger model with separate coefficients for individual-level and group-level effects. If you want, you can make an assumption that they’re equal, but that’s an assumption that needs to be justified on substantive grounds. We discuss these issues a bit in this paper from 2001. (I just reread that paper. It’s pre

5 0.10095257 1015 andrew gelman stats-2011-11-17-Good examples of lurking variables?

Introduction: Rama Ganesan writes: I have been using many of your demos from the Teaching Stats book . . . Do you by any chance have a nice easy dataset that I can use to show students how ‘lurking variables’ work using regression? For instance, in your book you talk about the relationship between height and salaries – where gender is the hidden variable. Any suggestions?

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Introduction: This hidden assumption is a biggie.

2 0.46892622 347 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-17-Getting arm and lme4 running on the Mac

Introduction: Our “arm” package in R requires Doug Bates’s “lme4″ which fits multilevel models. lme4 is currently having some problems on the Mac. But installation on the Mac can be done; it just takes a bit of work. I have two sets of instructions below. From Yu-Sung: If you have MAC OS DVD, you should install developer X code packages from it. Otherwise, install them from here . After this, do the following in R: install.packages(“lme4″, type = “source”) Then you will have lme4 in R and you can install arm without a problem. And, from David Ozonoff: I installed the lme4 package via the Package Installer but this didn’t work, of course. I then installed, via this link , gfortran which seemed to put the libraries in the right place (I had earlier installed via Fink the gcc42 compiler, so I’m not sure if this is required or not). I then ran, in R, this: install.packages(c(“Matrix”,”lme4″), repos=”http://R-Forge.R-project.org”) This does not appear to work since it wi

3 0.45396787 2066 andrew gelman stats-2013-10-17-G+ hangout for test run of BDA course

Introduction: Try this link . . . . OK, it worked (as well as might be expected given that we don’t have any professional audiovisual people involved). Tomorrow 8h30, I’ll post a new link with the new G+ hangout. We’ll be going through the first two sets of slides (class1a.pdf and class1b.pdf) following the link for the slides here .

4 0.41434237 1318 andrew gelman stats-2012-05-13-Stolen jokes

Introduction: Fun stories here (from Kliph Nesteroff, link from Mark Palko).

5 0.38494012 587 andrew gelman stats-2011-02-24-5 seconds of every #1 pop single

Introduction: This is pretty amazing. Now I want to hear volume 3. Also is there a way to download this as I play it so I can listen when I’m offline? P.S. Typo in title fixed. P.P.S. I originally gave a different link but was led to the apparently more definitive link above (which allows direct download) from a commenter . Thanks!

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Introduction: This hidden assumption is a biggie.

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Introduction: “Noyes is one of 103 public schools here that have had erasure rates that surpassed D.C. averages at least once since 2008. That’s more than half of D.C. schools.”

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