andrew_gelman_stats andrew_gelman_stats-2010 andrew_gelman_stats-2010-354 knowledge-graph by maker-knowledge-mining
Source: html
Introduction: Just was buying my ticket online. Huge amounts of paperwork . . . can’t they contract out with Amazon.com? Anyway, at the very end, I got this item: Recommended: Add Quik-Trip Travel Protection Get 24/7 protection for your trip with a plan that provides: * Electronic and Sporting Equipment coverage up to $1,000 * Travel Delay coverage (delays of 6 hrs. or more) up to $150 * 24/7 Travel Emergency Assistance Yes! For just $8.50 per traveler, I’d like to add Quik-Trip Travel Protection. This is $8.50 total. Restrictions apply, learn more. No thanks. I decline Quik-Trip Travel Protection. “Restrictions apply,” huh? My favorite part, though, is “Travel Delay coverage (delays of 6 hrs. or more) up to $150.” I can just imagine the formula they have: “Your delay is 8 hours and 20 minutes, huh? Let’s look that up . . . it looks like you’re entitled to $124. And thanks for riding Amtrak!” But if your delay is only 5 hours and 50 minutes, forget about it. P.
sentIndex sentText sentNum sentScore
1 Anyway, at the very end, I got this item: Recommended: Add Quik-Trip Travel Protection Get 24/7 protection for your trip with a plan that provides: * Electronic and Sporting Equipment coverage up to $1,000 * Travel Delay coverage (delays of 6 hrs. [sent-7, score-0.789]
2 50 per traveler, I’d like to add Quik-Trip Travel Protection. [sent-10, score-0.145]
3 My favorite part, though, is “Travel Delay coverage (delays of 6 hrs. [sent-17, score-0.292]
4 ” I can just imagine the formula they have: “Your delay is 8 hours and 20 minutes, huh? [sent-19, score-0.569]
5 ” But if your delay is only 5 hours and 50 minutes, forget about it. [sent-25, score-0.556]
6 My most memorable Amtrak experience was several years ago when I found myself sitting next to an elderly gentleman who was reading through some official-looking documents. [sent-28, score-0.385]
7 I started up a conversation and told him our research on political polarization, a topic which he knew all about, of course. [sent-31, score-0.235]
wordName wordTfidf (topN-words)
[('travel', 0.511), ('delay', 0.363), ('delays', 0.271), ('coverage', 0.23), ('amtrak', 0.223), ('protection', 0.182), ('restrictions', 0.182), ('minutes', 0.129), ('hours', 0.125), ('huh', 0.124), ('castle', 0.123), ('sporting', 0.123), ('equipment', 0.116), ('gentleman', 0.111), ('paperwork', 0.111), ('apply', 0.109), ('memorable', 0.107), ('assistance', 0.104), ('emergency', 0.104), ('polarization', 0.095), ('elderly', 0.095), ('add', 0.095), ('electronic', 0.094), ('riding', 0.092), ('trip', 0.088), ('amounts', 0.088), ('buying', 0.086), ('ticket', 0.085), ('contract', 0.084), ('gradually', 0.082), ('formula', 0.081), ('entitled', 0.077), ('decline', 0.073), ('mike', 0.073), ('sitting', 0.072), ('conversation', 0.069), ('forget', 0.068), ('recommended', 0.068), ('realized', 0.068), ('thanks', 0.068), ('item', 0.065), ('favorite', 0.062), ('knew', 0.062), ('provides', 0.06), ('plan', 0.059), ('started', 0.054), ('huge', 0.053), ('per', 0.05), ('anyway', 0.05), ('told', 0.05)]
simIndex simValue blogId blogTitle
same-blog 1 1.0 354 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-19-There’s only one Amtrak
Introduction: Just was buying my ticket online. Huge amounts of paperwork . . . can’t they contract out with Amazon.com? Anyway, at the very end, I got this item: Recommended: Add Quik-Trip Travel Protection Get 24/7 protection for your trip with a plan that provides: * Electronic and Sporting Equipment coverage up to $1,000 * Travel Delay coverage (delays of 6 hrs. or more) up to $150 * 24/7 Travel Emergency Assistance Yes! For just $8.50 per traveler, I’d like to add Quik-Trip Travel Protection. This is $8.50 total. Restrictions apply, learn more. No thanks. I decline Quik-Trip Travel Protection. “Restrictions apply,” huh? My favorite part, though, is “Travel Delay coverage (delays of 6 hrs. or more) up to $150.” I can just imagine the formula they have: “Your delay is 8 hours and 20 minutes, huh? Let’s look that up . . . it looks like you’re entitled to $124. And thanks for riding Amtrak!” But if your delay is only 5 hours and 50 minutes, forget about it. P.
2 0.13027389 894 andrew gelman stats-2011-09-07-Hipmunk FAIL: Graphics without content is not enough
Introduction: I love a good GUI but not if it doesn’t give me the information I need. I again tried Hipmunk and it again failed (this time for a trip to Baltimore where it gave only a useless subset of the available Amtrak trains). I don’t know anything about the internet biz. What I’m guessing is that they set up this cool website that is pretty much functional, with the goal of selling it for a few million dollars to Travelocity or Expedia or Kayak. What I’m wondering is, why haven’t they made the deal already? Hipmunk’s GUI is great. The site is useless because it’s missing so many flights, but if you put it in an actual travel site such as Expedia, it would be great. It’s enough to make me want to hit someone with an i-phone . . .
3 0.086333215 2300 andrew gelman stats-2014-04-21-Ticket to Baaaath
Introduction: Ooooooh, I never ever thought I’d have a legitimate excuse to tell this story, and now I do! The story took place many years ago, but first I have to tell you what made me think of it: Rasmus Bååth posted the following comment last month: On airplane tickets a Swedish “å” is written as “aa” resulting in Rasmus Baaaath. Once I bought a ticket online and five minutes later a guy from Lufthansa calls me and asks if I misspelled my name… OK, now here’s my story (which is not nearly as good). A long time ago (but when I was already an adult), I was in England for some reason, and I thought I’d take a day trip from London to Bath. So here I am on line, trying to think of what to say at the ticket counter. I remember that in England, they call Bath, Bahth. So, should I ask for “a ticket to Bahth”? I’m not sure, I’m afraid that it will sound silly, like I’m trying to fake an English accent. So, when I get to the front of the line, I say, hesitantly, “I’d like a ticket to Bath?
4 0.08312092 1104 andrew gelman stats-2012-01-07-A compelling reason to go to London, Ontario??
Introduction: Dan Goldstein asks what I think of this : My reply: It’s hard for me to imagine a compelling reason for anyone to go to London, Ontario–but, hey, I guess there’s all kinds of people in this world! More seriously, I see the appeal of the graph but it’s a bit busy for my taste. Over the years I’ve moved toward small multiples rather than single busy graphs. That’s one reason why I prefer Tufte’s second book to his first book. The Napoleon-in-Russia graph is a bad model, in that inspires people to try to cram lots of variables on a single graph. Dan wrote back: I [Dan] like it as a travel planning graph, it gives you what you want to know (how how will the days be, how cold will the nights be, will it rain) but is a bit easier on the brain than a table of highs and lows. Also makes it easy to see the trend. I agree the 2nd axis doesn’t help.
5 0.074058808 1610 andrew gelman stats-2012-12-06-Yes, checking calibration of probability forecasts is part of Bayesian statistics
Introduction: Yes, checking calibration of probability forecasts is part of Bayesian statistics. At the end of this post are three figures from Chapter 1 of Bayesian Data Analysis illustrating empirical evaluation of forecasts. But first the background. Why am I bringing this up now? It’s because of something Larry Wasserman wrote the other day : One of the striking facts about [baseball/political forecaster Nate Silver's recent] book is the emphasis the Silver places on frequency calibration. . . . Have no doubt about it: Nate Silver is a frequentist. For example, he says: One of the most important tests of a forecast — I would argue that it is the single most important one — is called calibration. Out of all the times you said there was a 40 percent chance of rain, how often did rain actually occur? If over the long run, it really did rain about 40 percent of the time, that means your forecasts were well calibrated. I had some discussion with Larry in the comments section of h
6 0.073494725 1007 andrew gelman stats-2011-11-13-At last, treated with the disrespect that I deserve
7 0.07070376 1240 andrew gelman stats-2012-04-02-Blogads update
8 0.06936352 497 andrew gelman stats-2011-01-02-Hipmunk update
9 0.068109021 2181 andrew gelman stats-2014-01-21-The Commissar for Traffic presents the latest Five-Year Plan
10 0.067835636 880 andrew gelman stats-2011-08-30-Annals of spam
11 0.06533879 1722 andrew gelman stats-2013-02-14-Statistics for firefighters: update
12 0.064779922 1014 andrew gelman stats-2011-11-16-Visualizations of NYPD stop-and-frisk data
13 0.063767031 104 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-22-Seeking balance
14 0.063014038 2113 andrew gelman stats-2013-11-25-Postdoc position on psychometrics and network modeling
15 0.06204161 129 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-05-Unrelated to all else
16 0.06129197 2069 andrew gelman stats-2013-10-19-R package for effect size calculations for psychology researchers
18 0.056262229 582 andrew gelman stats-2011-02-20-Statisticians vs. everybody else
19 0.054677553 1687 andrew gelman stats-2013-01-21-Workshop on science communication for graduate students
topicId topicWeight
[(0, 0.061), (1, -0.04), (2, -0.019), (3, 0.017), (4, 0.008), (5, 0.032), (6, 0.013), (7, 0.002), (8, -0.01), (9, -0.016), (10, -0.009), (11, -0.014), (12, 0.032), (13, -0.011), (14, -0.012), (15, 0.021), (16, 0.008), (17, -0.027), (18, 0.014), (19, -0.002), (20, 0.013), (21, 0.026), (22, 0.001), (23, -0.005), (24, 0.004), (25, 0.005), (26, -0.017), (27, -0.022), (28, 0.008), (29, 0.002), (30, -0.002), (31, -0.012), (32, 0.015), (33, -0.021), (34, -0.007), (35, -0.051), (36, -0.026), (37, -0.0), (38, 0.023), (39, -0.045), (40, -0.003), (41, -0.017), (42, -0.006), (43, -0.023), (44, -0.008), (45, 0.002), (46, 0.003), (47, -0.02), (48, -0.014), (49, 0.004)]
simIndex simValue blogId blogTitle
same-blog 1 0.96244591 354 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-19-There’s only one Amtrak
Introduction: Just was buying my ticket online. Huge amounts of paperwork . . . can’t they contract out with Amazon.com? Anyway, at the very end, I got this item: Recommended: Add Quik-Trip Travel Protection Get 24/7 protection for your trip with a plan that provides: * Electronic and Sporting Equipment coverage up to $1,000 * Travel Delay coverage (delays of 6 hrs. or more) up to $150 * 24/7 Travel Emergency Assistance Yes! For just $8.50 per traveler, I’d like to add Quik-Trip Travel Protection. This is $8.50 total. Restrictions apply, learn more. No thanks. I decline Quik-Trip Travel Protection. “Restrictions apply,” huh? My favorite part, though, is “Travel Delay coverage (delays of 6 hrs. or more) up to $150.” I can just imagine the formula they have: “Your delay is 8 hours and 20 minutes, huh? Let’s look that up . . . it looks like you’re entitled to $124. And thanks for riding Amtrak!” But if your delay is only 5 hours and 50 minutes, forget about it. P.
2 0.69523519 2052 andrew gelman stats-2013-10-05-Give me a ticket for an aeroplane
Introduction: How long are songs? Gabriel Rossman discusses the two peaks, one at just under 3 minutes and one at just under 4 minutes. He quotes musician Jacob Slichter: In anticipation of “crossing over” the single to radio formats . . . Each mix had to be edited down to under four minutes, an important limit in the mind of radio programmers. (To submit a single with a track length of 4:01 is as foolish as pricing kitchen knives sold on television at $20.01). We pestered Bob Ludwig, the mastering engineer, with a slew of editing adjustments. “Okay, shorten the intro to what it was two verses ago, cut eight bars off the end of the bridge, and undo the cuts we asked you to make to the final chorus.”
3 0.6828993 1261 andrew gelman stats-2012-04-12-The Naval Research Lab
Introduction: I worked at the U.S. Naval Research Laboratory for four summers during high school and college. I spent much of my time writing a computer program to do thermal analysis for an experiment that we put on the space shuttle. The facility I developed with the finite-element method came in handy in my job at Bell Labs the following summers. I was working for C. H. Tsao and Jim Adams in the Laboratory for Cosmic Ray Physics. We were estimating the distribution of isotopes in cosmic rays using a pile of track detectors. To get accurate measurements, you want these plastic disks to be as close as possible to a constant temperature, so we designed an elaborate wrapping of thermal blankets. My program computed the temperature of the detectors during the year that the Long Duration Exposure Facility (including our experiment and a bunch of others) was scheduled to be in orbit. The input is the heat from solar radiation (easy enough to compute given the trajectory). On the computer I tr
4 0.66249204 1905 andrew gelman stats-2013-06-18-There are no fat sprinters
Introduction: This post is by Phil. A little over three years ago I wrote a post about exercise and weight loss in which I described losing a fair amount of weight due to (I believe) an exercise regime, with no effort to change my diet; this contradicted the prediction of studies that had recently been released. The comment thread on that post is quite interesting: a lot of people had had similar experiences — losing weight, or keeping it off, with an exercise program that includes very short periods of exercise at maximal intensity — while other people expressed some skepticism about my claims. Some commenters said that I risked injury; others said it was too early to judge anything because my weight loss might not last. The people who predicted injury were right: running the curve during a 200m sprint a month or two after that post, I strained my Achilles tendon. Nothing really serious, but it did keep me off the track for a couple of months, and rather than go back to sprinting I switched t
5 0.63025868 2148 andrew gelman stats-2013-12-25-Spam!
Introduction: This one totally faked me out at first. It was an email from “Nick Bagnall” that began: Dear Dr. Gelman, I made contact last year regarding your work in the CMG: Reconstructing Climate from Tree Ring Data project. We are about to start producing the 2014 edition and I wanted to discuss this with you as we still remain keen to feature your work. Research Media are producing a special publication in February of 2014, within this report we will be working with a small selected number of PI’s with a focus on geosciences, atmospheric and geospace sciences and earth Sciences.. At this point, I’m thinking: Hmmm, I don’t remember this guy, is this some sort of collaborative project that I’d forgotten about? The message then continues: The publication is called International Innovation . . . Huh? This doesn’t sound so good. The email then goes on with some very long lists, and then finally the kicker: The total cost for each article produced in this report is fixed a
6 0.62502879 573 andrew gelman stats-2011-02-14-Hipmunk < Expedia, again
7 0.6208145 164 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-26-A very short story
8 0.61805236 2259 andrew gelman stats-2014-03-22-Picking pennies in front of a steamroller: A parable comes to life
9 0.61751747 970 andrew gelman stats-2011-10-24-Bell Labs
10 0.61462837 1698 andrew gelman stats-2013-01-30-The spam just gets weirder and weirder
11 0.60534477 512 andrew gelman stats-2011-01-12-Picking pennies in front of a steamroller: A parable comes to life
12 0.60118192 412 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-13-Time to apply for the hackNY summer fellows program
13 0.59121656 68 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-03-…pretty soon you’re talking real money.
14 0.58702123 1306 andrew gelman stats-2012-05-07-Lists of Note and Letters of Note
15 0.58696157 129 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-05-Unrelated to all else
16 0.58386487 1831 andrew gelman stats-2013-04-29-The Great Race
17 0.58287644 1549 andrew gelman stats-2012-10-26-My talk at the Larchmont public library this Sunday
18 0.5826453 2338 andrew gelman stats-2014-05-19-My short career as a Freud expert
19 0.5811407 2230 andrew gelman stats-2014-03-02-What is it with Americans in Olympic ski teams from tropical countries?
20 0.58039773 2313 andrew gelman stats-2014-04-30-Seth Roberts
topicId topicWeight
[(6, 0.029), (15, 0.047), (16, 0.055), (24, 0.091), (27, 0.015), (45, 0.014), (49, 0.225), (53, 0.117), (76, 0.012), (77, 0.01), (83, 0.015), (84, 0.025), (85, 0.013), (86, 0.018), (95, 0.02), (99, 0.178)]
simIndex simValue blogId blogTitle
1 0.85782206 1091 andrew gelman stats-2011-12-29-Bayes in astronomy
Introduction: David Schminovich points me to this paper by Yu Lu, H. Mo, Martin Weinberg, and Neal Katz: We believe that a wide range of physical processes conspire to shape the observed galaxy population but we remain unsure of their detailed interactions. The semi-analytic model (SAM) of galaxy formation uses multi-dimensional parameterisations of the physical processes of galaxy formation and provides a tool to constrain these underlying physical interactions. Because of the high dimensionality, the parametric problem of galaxy formation may be profitably tackled with a Bayesian-inference based approach, which allows one to constrain theory with data in a statistically rigorous way. In this paper we develop a SAM in the framework of Bayesian inference. . . . And here’s another from the same authors, this time on “Bayesian inference of galaxy formation from the K-band luminosity function of galaxies: tensions between theory and observation.” I haven’t actually looked at the papers but
2 0.85649526 1738 andrew gelman stats-2013-02-25-Plaig
Introduction: “‘The distortion of a text,’ says Freud in Moses and Monotheism, ‘is not unlike a murder. The difficulty lies not in the execution of the deed but in doing away with the traces.’” — James Wood, in The Fun Stuff (2012).
same-blog 3 0.84803903 354 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-19-There’s only one Amtrak
Introduction: Just was buying my ticket online. Huge amounts of paperwork . . . can’t they contract out with Amazon.com? Anyway, at the very end, I got this item: Recommended: Add Quik-Trip Travel Protection Get 24/7 protection for your trip with a plan that provides: * Electronic and Sporting Equipment coverage up to $1,000 * Travel Delay coverage (delays of 6 hrs. or more) up to $150 * 24/7 Travel Emergency Assistance Yes! For just $8.50 per traveler, I’d like to add Quik-Trip Travel Protection. This is $8.50 total. Restrictions apply, learn more. No thanks. I decline Quik-Trip Travel Protection. “Restrictions apply,” huh? My favorite part, though, is “Travel Delay coverage (delays of 6 hrs. or more) up to $150.” I can just imagine the formula they have: “Your delay is 8 hours and 20 minutes, huh? Let’s look that up . . . it looks like you’re entitled to $124. And thanks for riding Amtrak!” But if your delay is only 5 hours and 50 minutes, forget about it. P.
Introduction: Ole Rogeberg writes: Recently read your blogpost on Pinker’s views regarding red and blue states . This might help you see where he’s coming from: The “conflict of visions” thing that Pinker repeats to likely refers to Thomas Sowell’s work in the books “Conflict of Visions” and “Visions of the anointed.” The “Conflict of visions” book is on his top-5 favorite book list and in a Q&A; interview he explains it as follows: Q: What is the Tragic Vision vs. the Utopian Vision? A: They are the different visions of human nature that underlie left-wing and right-wing ideologies. The distinction comes from the economist Thomas Sowell in his wonderful book “A Conflict of Visions.” According to the Tragic Vision, humans are inherently limited in virtue, wisdom, and knowledge, and social arrangements must acknowledge those limits. According to the Utopian vision, these limits are “products†of our social arrangements, and we should strive to overcome them in a better society of the f
5 0.7748735 952 andrew gelman stats-2011-10-11-More reason to like Sims besides just his name
Introduction: John Horton points to Sims ‘s comment on Angrist and Pischke : Top of page 8—he criticizes economists for using clustered standard errors—suggests using multilevel models instead. Awesome! So now there are at least two Nobel prize winners in economics who’ve expressed skepticism about controlled experiments. (I wonder if Sims is such a danger in a parking lot.) P.S. I’m still miffed that this journal didn’t invite me to comment on that article!
6 0.76637912 1709 andrew gelman stats-2013-02-06-The fractal nature of scientific revolutions
7 0.75818944 1969 andrew gelman stats-2013-08-05-New issue of Symposium magazine
8 0.74009585 634 andrew gelman stats-2011-03-29-A.I. is Whatever We Can’t Yet Automate
10 0.72884333 795 andrew gelman stats-2011-07-10-Aleks says this is the future of visualization
11 0.72435164 792 andrew gelman stats-2011-07-08-The virtues of incoherence?
12 0.7204951 570 andrew gelman stats-2011-02-12-Software request
13 0.70787001 1856 andrew gelman stats-2013-05-14-GPstuff: Bayesian Modeling with Gaussian Processes
14 0.70780241 1007 andrew gelman stats-2011-11-13-At last, treated with the disrespect that I deserve
15 0.70170629 1468 andrew gelman stats-2012-08-24-Multilevel modeling and instrumental variables
16 0.70123518 1905 andrew gelman stats-2013-06-18-There are no fat sprinters
17 0.70055324 46 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-21-Careers, one-hit wonders, and an offer of a free book
18 0.6988852 991 andrew gelman stats-2011-11-04-Insecure researchers aren’t sharing their data
20 0.69730914 1047 andrew gelman stats-2011-12-08-I Am Too Absolutely Heteroskedastic for This Probit Model