andrew_gelman_stats andrew_gelman_stats-2010 andrew_gelman_stats-2010-180 knowledge-graph by maker-knowledge-mining
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Introduction: I. State of the Climate report The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration recently released their “State of the Climate Report” for 2009 . The report has chapters discussing global climate (temperatures, water vapor, cloudiness, alpine glaciers,…); oceans (ocean heat content, sea level, sea surface temperatures, etc.); the arctic (sea ice extent, permafrost, vegetation, and so on); Antarctica (weather observations, sea ice extent,…), and regional climates. NOAA also provides a nice page that lets you display any of 11 relevant time-series datasets (land-surface air temperature, sea level, ocean heat content, September arctic sea-ice extent, sea-surface temperature, northern hemisphere snow cover, specific humidity, glacier mass balance, marine air temperature, tropospheric temperature, and stratospheric temperature). Each of the plots overlays data from several databases (not necessarily indepenedent of each other), and you can select which ones to include or leave
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1 State of the Climate report The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration recently released their “State of the Climate Report” for 2009 . [sent-2, score-0.078]
2 The report has chapters discussing global climate (temperatures, water vapor, cloudiness, alpine glaciers,…); oceans (ocean heat content, sea level, sea surface temperatures, etc. [sent-3, score-1.509]
3 ); the arctic (sea ice extent, permafrost, vegetation, and so on); Antarctica (weather observations, sea ice extent,…), and regional climates. [sent-4, score-0.71]
4 Each of the plots overlays data from several databases (not necessarily indepenedent of each other), and you can select which ones to include or leave out. [sent-6, score-0.061]
5 News flash: the earth’s atmosphere and oceans are warming rapidly. [sent-7, score-0.406]
6 By the way, note that one of the temperature series — Stratospheric (high-altitude) temperature — is declining rather than increasing. [sent-8, score-0.874]
7 That’s to be expected since the stratosphere is getting less heat from below than it used to: more of the heat coming from the earth is absorbed by the CO2 in the lower atmosphere. [sent-9, score-0.599]
8 35th Anniversary of a major global warming prediction Another recent news item is the “celebration” of the 35th anniversary of the very brief article, in the journal Science, “Climatic Change: Are We on the Brink of Pronounced Global Warming” , by Wallace Broecker. [sent-11, score-0.635]
9 When the paper was published (1975) the global mean temperature was only about 0. [sent-12, score-0.648]
10 2 C higher than it had been in 1900, and the trend was downward rather than upward. [sent-13, score-0.216]
11 Broeker correctly predicted that the downward trend would end soon, and that the ensuing warming would “by the year 2000 bring average global temperatures beyond the range experienced in the last 1000 years. [sent-14, score-1.027]
12 ” He got that right, or at least, the highly uncertain temperature data from 1000 years ago are consistent with Broeker having gotten that right. [sent-15, score-0.408]
13 Not really news, but since we’re here… Speaking of global temperatures 1000 years ago, one thing anthropogenic climate change skeptics like to point out is that wine was produced in England in the year 1000, and the Norse on Greenland were able to graze cattle and produce crops. [sent-18, score-0.947]
14 No climate bill again this year Meanwhile, Congress has dropped efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. [sent-22, score-0.353]
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same-blog 1 0.99999988 180 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-03-Climate Change News
Introduction: I. State of the Climate report The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration recently released their “State of the Climate Report” for 2009 . The report has chapters discussing global climate (temperatures, water vapor, cloudiness, alpine glaciers,…); oceans (ocean heat content, sea level, sea surface temperatures, etc.); the arctic (sea ice extent, permafrost, vegetation, and so on); Antarctica (weather observations, sea ice extent,…), and regional climates. NOAA also provides a nice page that lets you display any of 11 relevant time-series datasets (land-surface air temperature, sea level, ocean heat content, September arctic sea-ice extent, sea-surface temperature, northern hemisphere snow cover, specific humidity, glacier mass balance, marine air temperature, tropospheric temperature, and stratospheric temperature). Each of the plots overlays data from several databases (not necessarily indepenedent of each other), and you can select which ones to include or leave
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Introduction: After writing yesterday’s post , I was going through Solomon Hsiang’s blog and found a post pointing to three studies from researchers at business schools: Severe Weather and Automobile Assembly Productivity Gérard P. Cachon, Santiago Gallino and Marcelo Olivares Abstract: It is expected that climate change could lead to an increased frequency of severe weather. In turn, severe weather intuitively should hamper the productivity of work that occurs outside. But what is the effect of rain, snow, fog, heat and wind on work that occurs indoors, such as the production of automobiles? Using weekly production data from 64 automobile plants in the United States over a ten-year period, we find that adverse weather conditions lead to a significant reduction in production. For example, one additional day of high wind advisory by the National Weather Service (i.e., maximum winds generally in excess of 44 miles per hour) reduces production by 26%, which is comparable in order of magnitude t
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Introduction: A recent article on global warming reminded me of the difficulty of letting the data speak. William Nordhaus shows the following graph: And then he writes: One of the reasons that drawing conclusions on temperature trends is tricky is that the historical temperature series is highly volatile, as can be seen in the figure. The presence of short-term volatility requires looking at long-term trends. A useful analogy is the stock market. Suppose an analyst says that because real stock prices have declined over the last decade (which is true), it follows that there is no upward trend. Here again, an examination of the long-term data would quickly show this to be incorrect. The last decade of temperature and stock market data is not representative of the longer-term trends. The finding that global temperatures are rising over the last century-plus is one of the most robust findings of climate science and statistics. I see what he’s saying, but first, I don’t find the st
Introduction: My friend Seth, whom I know from Berkeley (we taught a course together on left-handedness), has a blog on topics ranging from thoughtful discussions of scientific evidence, to experiences with his unconventional weight-loss scheme, offbeat self-experimentation, and advocacy of fringe scientific theories, leavened with occasional dollops of cynicism and political extremism . I agree with Seth on some things but not others. ( Here’s Seth’s reason for not attempting a clinical trial of his diet.) Recently I was disturbed (but, I’m sorry to say, not surprised) to see Seth post the following: Predictions of climate models versus reality . I [Seth] have only seen careful prediction-vs-reality comparisons made by AGW [anthropogenic global warming] skeptics. Those who believe humans are dangerously warming the planet appear to be silent on this subject. In response, Phil commented : Funny, on the day you [Seth] made your post saying that you haven’t seen comparis
Introduction: I hate to keep bumping our scheduled posts but this is just too important and too exciting to wait. So it’s time to jump the queue. The news is a paper from Michael Betancourt that presents a super-cool new way to compute normalizing constants: A common strategy for inference in complex models is the relaxation of a simple model into the more complex target model, for example the prior into the posterior in Bayesian inference. Existing approaches that attempt to generate such transformations, however, are sensitive to the pathologies of complex distributions and can be difficult to implement in practice. Leveraging the geometry of thermodynamic processes I introduce a principled and robust approach to deforming measures that presents a powerful new tool for inference. The idea is to generalize Hamiltonian Monte Carlo so that it moves through a family of distributions (that is, it transitions through an “inverse temperature” variable called beta that indexes the family) a
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Introduction: I. State of the Climate report The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration recently released their “State of the Climate Report” for 2009 . The report has chapters discussing global climate (temperatures, water vapor, cloudiness, alpine glaciers,…); oceans (ocean heat content, sea level, sea surface temperatures, etc.); the arctic (sea ice extent, permafrost, vegetation, and so on); Antarctica (weather observations, sea ice extent,…), and regional climates. NOAA also provides a nice page that lets you display any of 11 relevant time-series datasets (land-surface air temperature, sea level, ocean heat content, September arctic sea-ice extent, sea-surface temperature, northern hemisphere snow cover, specific humidity, glacier mass balance, marine air temperature, tropospheric temperature, and stratospheric temperature). Each of the plots overlays data from several databases (not necessarily indepenedent of each other), and you can select which ones to include or leave
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Introduction: Solomon Hsiang shares some bad news: Persistently reduced labor productivity may be one of the largest economic impacts of anthropogenic climate change. . . . Two percent per degree Celsius . . . That’s the magic number for how worker productivity responds to warm/hot temperatures. In my 2010 PNAS paper , I [Hsiang] found that labor-intensive sectors of national economies decreased output by roughly 2.4% per degree C and argued that this looked suspiously like it came from reductions in worker output. Using a totally different method and dataset, Matt Neidell and Josh Graff Zivin found that labor supply in micro data fell by 1.8% per degree C. Both responses kicked in at around 26C. Chris Sheehan just sent me this NYT article on air conditioning , where they mention this neat natural experiment: [I]n the past year, [Japan] became an unwitting laboratory to study even more extreme air-conditioning abstinence, and the results have not been encouraging. After th
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Introduction: A recent article on global warming reminded me of the difficulty of letting the data speak. William Nordhaus shows the following graph: And then he writes: One of the reasons that drawing conclusions on temperature trends is tricky is that the historical temperature series is highly volatile, as can be seen in the figure. The presence of short-term volatility requires looking at long-term trends. A useful analogy is the stock market. Suppose an analyst says that because real stock prices have declined over the last decade (which is true), it follows that there is no upward trend. Here again, an examination of the long-term data would quickly show this to be incorrect. The last decade of temperature and stock market data is not representative of the longer-term trends. The finding that global temperatures are rising over the last century-plus is one of the most robust findings of climate science and statistics. I see what he’s saying, but first, I don’t find the st
Introduction: My friend Seth, whom I know from Berkeley (we taught a course together on left-handedness), has a blog on topics ranging from thoughtful discussions of scientific evidence, to experiences with his unconventional weight-loss scheme, offbeat self-experimentation, and advocacy of fringe scientific theories, leavened with occasional dollops of cynicism and political extremism . I agree with Seth on some things but not others. ( Here’s Seth’s reason for not attempting a clinical trial of his diet.) Recently I was disturbed (but, I’m sorry to say, not surprised) to see Seth post the following: Predictions of climate models versus reality . I [Seth] have only seen careful prediction-vs-reality comparisons made by AGW [anthropogenic global warming] skeptics. Those who believe humans are dangerously warming the planet appear to be silent on this subject. In response, Phil commented : Funny, on the day you [Seth] made your post saying that you haven’t seen comparis
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Introduction: I. State of the Climate report The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration recently released their “State of the Climate Report” for 2009 . The report has chapters discussing global climate (temperatures, water vapor, cloudiness, alpine glaciers,…); oceans (ocean heat content, sea level, sea surface temperatures, etc.); the arctic (sea ice extent, permafrost, vegetation, and so on); Antarctica (weather observations, sea ice extent,…), and regional climates. NOAA also provides a nice page that lets you display any of 11 relevant time-series datasets (land-surface air temperature, sea level, ocean heat content, September arctic sea-ice extent, sea-surface temperature, northern hemisphere snow cover, specific humidity, glacier mass balance, marine air temperature, tropospheric temperature, and stratospheric temperature). Each of the plots overlays data from several databases (not necessarily indepenedent of each other), and you can select which ones to include or leave
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Introduction: Cassie Murdoch points to a report from a corporate survey: Sixty-two percent of U.S. employees say it’s not likely they or a family member will be diagnosed with a serious illness like cancer, a survey indicates. The Aflac WorkForces Report, a survey of nearly 1,900 benefits decision-makers and more than 6,100 U.S. workers, also indicated 55 percent said they were not very or not at all likely to be diagnosed with a chronic illness, such as heart disease or diabetes. Here are some actual statistics: The American Cancer Society, Cancer Facts & Figures 2012, said 1-in-3 women and 1-in-2 men will be diagnosed with cancer at some point in their lives, and the National Safety Council, Injury Facts 2011 edition, says more than 38.9 million injuries occur in a year requiring medical treatment. The American Heart Association, Heart Disease & Stroke Statistics 2012, said 1-in-6 U.S. deaths were caused by coronary heart disease, Tillman said. And some details on the survey:
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