andrew_gelman_stats andrew_gelman_stats-2010 andrew_gelman_stats-2010-15 knowledge-graph by maker-knowledge-mining
Source: html
Introduction: My article with Daniel and Yair has recently appeared in The Forum: We use multilevel modeling to estimate support for health-care reform by age, income, and state. Opposition to reform is concentrated among higher-income voters and those over 65. Attitudes do not vary much by state. Unfortunately, our poll data only go to 2004, but we suspect that much can be learned from the relative positions of different demographic groups and different states, despite swings in national opinion. We speculate on the political implications of these findings. The article features some pretty graphs that originally appeared on the blog. It’s in a special issue on health care politics that has several interesting articles, among which I’d like to single out this one by Bob Shapiro and Lawrence Jacobs entitled, “Simulating Representation: Elite Mobilization and Political Power in Health Care Reform”: The public’s core policy preferences have, for some time, favored expanding access to heal
sentIndex sentText sentNum sentScore
1 My article with Daniel and Yair has recently appeared in The Forum: We use multilevel modeling to estimate support for health-care reform by age, income, and state. [sent-1, score-0.535]
2 Opposition to reform is concentrated among higher-income voters and those over 65. [sent-2, score-0.611]
3 Unfortunately, our poll data only go to 2004, but we suspect that much can be learned from the relative positions of different demographic groups and different states, despite swings in national opinion. [sent-4, score-0.087]
4 We speculate on the political implications of these findings. [sent-5, score-0.087]
5 The article features some pretty graphs that originally appeared on the blog. [sent-6, score-0.105]
6 Yet the intensely divisive debate over reform generated several notable gaps between proposed policies and public opinion for two reasons. [sent-8, score-0.92]
7 First, Democratic policymakers and their supporters pushed for certain specific means for pursuing these broad policy goals–namely, mandates on individuals to obtain health insurance coverage and the imposition of an excise tax on high-end health insurance plans–that the public opposed. [sent-9, score-1.74]
8 Second, core public support for reform flipped into majority opposition in reaction to carefully crafted messages aimed at frightening Americans and especially by partisan polarization that cued Republican voters into opposition while they unnerved independents. [sent-10, score-2.074]
wordName wordTfidf (topN-words)
[('reform', 0.35), ('health', 0.218), ('insurance', 0.214), ('opposition', 0.208), ('public', 0.205), ('jacobs', 0.184), ('shapiro', 0.17), ('favored', 0.167), ('elite', 0.133), ('coverage', 0.132), ('partisan', 0.132), ('core', 0.13), ('policy', 0.126), ('policies', 0.115), ('voters', 0.109), ('mobilization', 0.106), ('cued', 0.106), ('unnerved', 0.106), ('appeared', 0.105), ('goals', 0.105), ('crafted', 0.1), ('frightening', 0.1), ('insurers', 0.1), ('originating', 0.1), ('intensely', 0.089), ('speculate', 0.087), ('swings', 0.087), ('certain', 0.086), ('policymakers', 0.085), ('flipped', 0.083), ('supporters', 0.083), ('care', 0.083), ('gaps', 0.082), ('expanding', 0.082), ('polarization', 0.082), ('pushed', 0.082), ('transformations', 0.082), ('simulating', 0.08), ('support', 0.08), ('concentrated', 0.079), ('elites', 0.079), ('notable', 0.079), ('ensure', 0.077), ('democracy', 0.077), ('lawrence', 0.077), ('pursuing', 0.077), ('aimed', 0.075), ('among', 0.073), ('namely', 0.072), ('reliable', 0.071)]
simIndex simValue blogId blogTitle
same-blog 1 1.0 15 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-03-Public Opinion on Health Care Reform
Introduction: My article with Daniel and Yair has recently appeared in The Forum: We use multilevel modeling to estimate support for health-care reform by age, income, and state. Opposition to reform is concentrated among higher-income voters and those over 65. Attitudes do not vary much by state. Unfortunately, our poll data only go to 2004, but we suspect that much can be learned from the relative positions of different demographic groups and different states, despite swings in national opinion. We speculate on the political implications of these findings. The article features some pretty graphs that originally appeared on the blog. It’s in a special issue on health care politics that has several interesting articles, among which I’d like to single out this one by Bob Shapiro and Lawrence Jacobs entitled, “Simulating Representation: Elite Mobilization and Political Power in Health Care Reform”: The public’s core policy preferences have, for some time, favored expanding access to heal
2 0.25386178 585 andrew gelman stats-2011-02-22-“How has your thinking changed over the past three years?”
Introduction: Harold Pollack writes: Over the past three years, we have experienced an amazing number of political, economic, and legislative trials. I suppose it’s human nature to respond to such events by doubling down on our own prior strongly-held beliefs. Health care reform/TARP/stimulus, whatever–that proves that I am even more right than I thought I was! That’s really too bad. We’ve been through some hard trials recently, in multiple senses. We’ve been tested by difficult times. We’ve also had the opportunity to see many of our beliefs tested through real-world experiments that should challenge our ideological, strategic, and policy views. Anyone active and attentive should be thinking differently about _something_ important after having witnessed so much history being made so quickly on so many different fronts. Have your own views changed on any basic issues of domestic policy? I’m not so much interested in your assessment of particular politicians or specific political tactics. Ra
3 0.16562255 769 andrew gelman stats-2011-06-15-Mr. P by another name . . . is still great!
Introduction: Brendan Nyhan points me to this from Don Taylor: Can national data be used to estimate state-level results? . . . A challenge is the fact that the sample size in many states is very small . . . Richard [Gonzales] used a regression approach to extrapolate this information to provide a state-level support for health reform: To get around the challenge presented by small sample sizes, the model presented here combines the benefits of incorporating auxiliary demographic information about the states with the hierarchical modeling approach commonly used in small area estimation. The model is designed to “shrink” estimates toward the average level of support in the region when there are few observations available, while simultaneously adjusting for the demographics and political ideology in the state. This approach therefore takes fuller advantage of all information available in the data to estimate state-level public opinion. This is a great idea, and it is already being used al
4 0.15744108 2255 andrew gelman stats-2014-03-19-How Americans vote
Introduction: An interview with me from 2012 : You’re a statistician and wrote a book, Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State , looking at why Americans vote the way they do. In an election year I think it would be a good time to revisit that question, not just for people in the US, but anyone around the world who wants to understand the realities – rather than the stereotypes – of how Americans vote. I regret the title I gave my book. I was too greedy. I wanted it to be an airport bestseller because I figured there were millions of people who are interested in politics and some subset of them are always looking at the statistics. It’s got a very grabby title and as a result people underestimated the content. They thought it was a popularisation of my work, or, at best, an expansion of an article we’d written. But it had tons of original material. If I’d given it a more serious, political science-y title, then all sorts of people would have wanted to read it, because they would
5 0.15171736 113 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-28-Advocacy in the form of a “deliberative forum”
Introduction: John Sides reports on a paper by Benjamin Page and Lawrence Jacobs about so-called deliberative forums, in particular a set of meetings called America Speaks that have been organized and conducted by the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, an organization formed by the former advertising executive, Secretary of Commerce, and investment banker to focus attention on the national debt. Sides, Page, and Jacobs discuss three key points: 1. Any poll or focus group is only as good as its sample, and there is no evidence that the participants in the America Speaks forums were selected in a way to be representative of the nation. Page and Jacobs write: Deliberative forums often fail to get a representative sample of Americans to participate, even when they try hard to do so. Worse, some deliberative forums make little or no serious effort to achieve representativeness. They throw open the doors to self-selected political activists with extreme opinions, or they compile a secret list
6 0.13267298 1444 andrew gelman stats-2012-08-05-Those darn conservative egalitarians
8 0.12803912 1326 andrew gelman stats-2012-05-17-Question 7 of my final exam for Design and Analysis of Sample Surveys
10 0.11963547 1328 andrew gelman stats-2012-05-18-Question 8 of my final exam for Design and Analysis of Sample Surveys
12 0.1064304 1227 andrew gelman stats-2012-03-23-Voting patterns of America’s whites, from the masses to the elites
13 0.10272765 394 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-05-2010: What happened?
14 0.10056338 465 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-13-$3M health care prediction challenge
16 0.098969065 152 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-17-Distorting the Electoral Connection? Partisan Representation in Confirmation Politics
17 0.096068762 196 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-10-The U.S. as welfare state
18 0.095625028 50 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-25-Looking for Sister Right
19 0.095320746 1079 andrew gelman stats-2011-12-23-Surveys show Americans are populist class warriors, except when they aren’t
20 0.093910582 2122 andrew gelman stats-2013-12-03-Objects of the class “Lawrence Summers”: Arne Duncan edition
topicId topicWeight
[(0, 0.13), (1, -0.07), (2, 0.122), (3, 0.02), (4, -0.044), (5, 0.024), (6, -0.084), (7, -0.021), (8, -0.047), (9, 0.036), (10, -0.018), (11, -0.012), (12, -0.011), (13, 0.087), (14, 0.033), (15, -0.023), (16, -0.025), (17, 0.015), (18, -0.012), (19, -0.019), (20, 0.061), (21, 0.001), (22, -0.007), (23, -0.009), (24, -0.006), (25, -0.01), (26, -0.0), (27, 0.014), (28, -0.023), (29, -0.022), (30, -0.052), (31, 0.003), (32, 0.024), (33, 0.025), (34, 0.006), (35, -0.042), (36, -0.013), (37, 0.042), (38, 0.145), (39, 0.035), (40, 0.046), (41, -0.035), (42, -0.07), (43, -0.023), (44, 0.005), (45, -0.035), (46, 0.021), (47, -0.02), (48, -0.036), (49, -0.004)]
simIndex simValue blogId blogTitle
same-blog 1 0.98502868 15 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-03-Public Opinion on Health Care Reform
Introduction: My article with Daniel and Yair has recently appeared in The Forum: We use multilevel modeling to estimate support for health-care reform by age, income, and state. Opposition to reform is concentrated among higher-income voters and those over 65. Attitudes do not vary much by state. Unfortunately, our poll data only go to 2004, but we suspect that much can be learned from the relative positions of different demographic groups and different states, despite swings in national opinion. We speculate on the political implications of these findings. The article features some pretty graphs that originally appeared on the blog. It’s in a special issue on health care politics that has several interesting articles, among which I’d like to single out this one by Bob Shapiro and Lawrence Jacobs entitled, “Simulating Representation: Elite Mobilization and Political Power in Health Care Reform”: The public’s core policy preferences have, for some time, favored expanding access to heal
2 0.76700616 113 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-28-Advocacy in the form of a “deliberative forum”
Introduction: John Sides reports on a paper by Benjamin Page and Lawrence Jacobs about so-called deliberative forums, in particular a set of meetings called America Speaks that have been organized and conducted by the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, an organization formed by the former advertising executive, Secretary of Commerce, and investment banker to focus attention on the national debt. Sides, Page, and Jacobs discuss three key points: 1. Any poll or focus group is only as good as its sample, and there is no evidence that the participants in the America Speaks forums were selected in a way to be representative of the nation. Page and Jacobs write: Deliberative forums often fail to get a representative sample of Americans to participate, even when they try hard to do so. Worse, some deliberative forums make little or no serious effort to achieve representativeness. They throw open the doors to self-selected political activists with extreme opinions, or they compile a secret list
3 0.75626767 585 andrew gelman stats-2011-02-22-“How has your thinking changed over the past three years?”
Introduction: Harold Pollack writes: Over the past three years, we have experienced an amazing number of political, economic, and legislative trials. I suppose it’s human nature to respond to such events by doubling down on our own prior strongly-held beliefs. Health care reform/TARP/stimulus, whatever–that proves that I am even more right than I thought I was! That’s really too bad. We’ve been through some hard trials recently, in multiple senses. We’ve been tested by difficult times. We’ve also had the opportunity to see many of our beliefs tested through real-world experiments that should challenge our ideological, strategic, and policy views. Anyone active and attentive should be thinking differently about _something_ important after having witnessed so much history being made so quickly on so many different fronts. Have your own views changed on any basic issues of domestic policy? I’m not so much interested in your assessment of particular politicians or specific political tactics. Ra
4 0.70866942 1 andrew gelman stats-2010-04-22-Political Belief Networks: Socio-cognitive Heterogeneity in American Public Opinion
Introduction: Delia Baldassarri and Amir Goldberg write : Americans’ political beliefs present a long observed paradox. Whereas the mainstream political discourse is structured on a clearly defined polarity between conservative and liberal views, in practice, most people exhibit ideologically incoherent belief patterns. This paper challenges the notion that political beliefs are necessarily defined by a singular ideological continuum. It applies a new, network-based method for detecting heterogeneity in collective patterns of opinion, relational class analysis (RCA), to Americans’ political attitudes as captured by the American National Election Studies. By refraining from making a-priori assumptions about how beliefs are interconnected, RCA looks for opinion structures, belief networks, that are not necessarily congruent with received wisdom. It finds that in the twenty years between 1984 and 2004 Americans’ political attitudes were consistently structured by two alternative belief systems: one
5 0.70012146 2060 andrew gelman stats-2013-10-13-New issue of Symposium magazine
Introduction: “Where academia meets public life” : The Changing Face of Violence Joel F. Harrington A debate has kicked off among scholars on whether we have become inherently more peaceful. A more important question is whether we actually understand the many forms violence takes. The Professor as Digital Native Interview with Mary Beard Why Central Bank Transparency May Be Overrated Brigitte Granville Be it ever so brilliant, communication in monetary policy is no panacea in today’s world of slow growth, high debt, and fiscal policy uncertainty. When Does Digital Activism Pack a Punch? Philip N. Howard A new project is collecting data to offer insights from digital campaigns around the world. Being ‘Different’ in a World of High Achievers Allison Stevens A Columbia professor writes about the challenges of raising a Down syndrome child – and the mixed reactions among her colleagues. A Grand Illusion Euny Hong How the top French schools remain incubators for the eli
6 0.63435817 1079 andrew gelman stats-2011-12-23-Surveys show Americans are populist class warriors, except when they aren’t
7 0.62663335 1328 andrew gelman stats-2012-05-18-Question 8 of my final exam for Design and Analysis of Sample Surveys
9 0.6164887 645 andrew gelman stats-2011-04-04-Do you have any idea what you’re talking about?
10 0.61431795 636 andrew gelman stats-2011-03-29-The Conservative States of America
11 0.61370057 1097 andrew gelman stats-2012-01-03-Libertarians in Space
12 0.60423279 177 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-02-Reintegrating rebels into civilian life: Quasi-experimental evidence from Burundi
13 0.60239047 337 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-12-Election symposium at Columbia Journalism School
14 0.59940642 828 andrew gelman stats-2011-07-28-Thoughts on Groseclose book on media bias
16 0.59772491 1166 andrew gelman stats-2012-02-13-Recently in the sister blog
17 0.59589928 666 andrew gelman stats-2011-04-18-American Beliefs about Economic Opportunity and Income Inequality
19 0.58931768 196 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-10-The U.S. as welfare state
20 0.58912426 323 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-06-Sociotropic Voting and the Media
topicId topicWeight
[(5, 0.015), (9, 0.028), (15, 0.029), (16, 0.094), (19, 0.017), (21, 0.049), (24, 0.136), (28, 0.015), (55, 0.025), (77, 0.026), (90, 0.13), (93, 0.029), (95, 0.03), (98, 0.028), (99, 0.202)]
simIndex simValue blogId blogTitle
same-blog 1 0.95069999 15 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-03-Public Opinion on Health Care Reform
Introduction: My article with Daniel and Yair has recently appeared in The Forum: We use multilevel modeling to estimate support for health-care reform by age, income, and state. Opposition to reform is concentrated among higher-income voters and those over 65. Attitudes do not vary much by state. Unfortunately, our poll data only go to 2004, but we suspect that much can be learned from the relative positions of different demographic groups and different states, despite swings in national opinion. We speculate on the political implications of these findings. The article features some pretty graphs that originally appeared on the blog. It’s in a special issue on health care politics that has several interesting articles, among which I’d like to single out this one by Bob Shapiro and Lawrence Jacobs entitled, “Simulating Representation: Elite Mobilization and Political Power in Health Care Reform”: The public’s core policy preferences have, for some time, favored expanding access to heal
2 0.92955273 1417 andrew gelman stats-2012-07-15-Some decision analysis problems are pretty easy, no?
Introduction: Cassie Murdoch reports : A 47-year-old woman in Uxbridge, Massachusetts, got behind the wheel of her car after having a bit too much to drink, but instead of wreaking havoc on the road, she ended up lodged in a sand trap at a local golf course. Why? Because her GPS made her do it—obviously! She said the GPS told her to turn left, and she did, right into a cornfield. That didn’t faze her, and she just kept on going until she ended up on the golf course and got stuck in the sand. There were people on the course at the time, but thankfully nobody was injured. Police found a cup full of alcohol in her car and arrested her for driving drunk. Here’s the punchline: This is the fourth time she’s been arrested for a DUI. Assuming this story is accurate, I guess they don’t have one of those “three strikes” laws in Massachusetts? Personally, I’m a lot more afraid of a dangerous driver than of some drug dealer. I’d think a simple cost-benefit calculation would recommend taking away
Introduction: Solomon Hsiang writes : I [Hsiang] have posted about high temperature inducing individuals to exhibit more violent behavior when driving, playing baseball and prowling bars. These cases are neat anecdotes that let us see the “pure aggression” response in lab-like conditions. But they don’t affect most of us too much. But violent crime in the real world affects everyone. Earlier, I posted a paper by Jacob et al. that looked at assault in the USA for about a decade – they found that higher temperatures lead to more assault and that the rise in violent crimes rose more quickly than the analogous rise in non-violent property-crime, an indicator that there is a “pure aggression” component to the rise in violent crime. A new working paper “Crime, Weather, and Climate Change” by recent Harvard grad Matthew Ranson puts together an impressive data set of all types of crime in USA counties for 50 years. The results tell the aggression story using street-level data very clearly [click to
4 0.9194591 475 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-19-All politics are local — not
Introduction: Mickey Kaus does a public service by trashing Tip O’Neill’s famous dictum that “all politics are local.” As Kaus point out, all the congressional elections in recent decades have been nationalized. I’d go one step further and say that, sure, all politics are local–if you’re Tip O’Neill and represent a ironclad Democratic seat in Congress. It’s easy to be smug about your political skills if you’re in a safe seat and have enough pull in state politics to avoid your district getting gerrymandered. Then you can sit there and sagely attribute your success to your continuing mastery of local politics rather than to whatever it took to get the seat in the first place.
5 0.89935219 1655 andrew gelman stats-2013-01-05-The statistics software signal
Introduction: Tyler Cowen links to a post by Sean Taylor, who writes the following about users of R: You are willing to invest in learning something difficult. You do not care about aesthetics, only availability of packages and getting results quickly. To me, R is easy and Sas is difficult. I once worked with some students who were running Sas and the output was unreadable! Pages and pages of numbers that made no sense. When it comes to ease or difficulty of use, I think it depends on what you’re used to! And I really don’t understand the bit about aesthetics. What about this ? One reason I use R is to make pretty graphs. That said, if I’d never learned R, I’d just be making pretty graphs in Fortran or whatever. My guess is, the way I program, R is actually hindering rather than helping my ability to make attractive graphs. Half the time I’m scrambling around, writing custom code to get around R’s defaults.
6 0.89111745 1411 andrew gelman stats-2012-07-10-Defining ourselves arbitrarily
8 0.88129783 1947 andrew gelman stats-2013-07-20-We are what we are studying
9 0.88014287 1842 andrew gelman stats-2013-05-05-Cleaning up science
10 0.87951767 762 andrew gelman stats-2011-06-13-How should journals handle replication studies?
11 0.87948591 478 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-20-More on why “all politics is local” is an outdated slogan
12 0.87224317 1932 andrew gelman stats-2013-07-10-Don’t trust the Turk
13 0.86961335 586 andrew gelman stats-2011-02-23-A statistical version of Arrow’s paradox
14 0.86733806 1959 andrew gelman stats-2013-07-28-50 shades of gray: A research story
15 0.86582172 2179 andrew gelman stats-2014-01-20-The AAA Tranche of Subprime Science
16 0.86403096 766 andrew gelman stats-2011-06-14-Last Wegman post (for now)
17 0.8636266 1163 andrew gelman stats-2012-02-12-Meta-analysis, game theory, and incentives to do replicable research
18 0.86032462 252 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-02-R needs a good function to make line plots