andrew_gelman_stats andrew_gelman_stats-2010 andrew_gelman_stats-2010-475 knowledge-graph by maker-knowledge-mining
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Introduction: Mickey Kaus does a public service by trashing Tip O’Neill’s famous dictum that “all politics are local.” As Kaus point out, all the congressional elections in recent decades have been nationalized. I’d go one step further and say that, sure, all politics are local–if you’re Tip O’Neill and represent a ironclad Democratic seat in Congress. It’s easy to be smug about your political skills if you’re in a safe seat and have enough pull in state politics to avoid your district getting gerrymandered. Then you can sit there and sagely attribute your success to your continuing mastery of local politics rather than to whatever it took to get the seat in the first place.
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1 Mickey Kaus does a public service by trashing Tip O’Neill’s famous dictum that “all politics are local. [sent-1, score-0.918]
2 ” As Kaus point out, all the congressional elections in recent decades have been nationalized. [sent-2, score-0.377]
3 I’d go one step further and say that, sure, all politics are local–if you’re Tip O’Neill and represent a ironclad Democratic seat in Congress. [sent-3, score-1.157]
4 It’s easy to be smug about your political skills if you’re in a safe seat and have enough pull in state politics to avoid your district getting gerrymandered. [sent-4, score-1.706]
5 Then you can sit there and sagely attribute your success to your continuing mastery of local politics rather than to whatever it took to get the seat in the first place. [sent-5, score-1.756]
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same-blog 1 0.99999994 475 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-19-All politics are local — not
Introduction: Mickey Kaus does a public service by trashing Tip O’Neill’s famous dictum that “all politics are local.” As Kaus point out, all the congressional elections in recent decades have been nationalized. I’d go one step further and say that, sure, all politics are local–if you’re Tip O’Neill and represent a ironclad Democratic seat in Congress. It’s easy to be smug about your political skills if you’re in a safe seat and have enough pull in state politics to avoid your district getting gerrymandered. Then you can sit there and sagely attribute your success to your continuing mastery of local politics rather than to whatever it took to get the seat in the first place.
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Introduction: Yesterday I wrote that Mickey Kaus was right to point out that it’s time to retire Tip O’Neill’s famous dictum that “all politics are local.” As Kaus points out, all the congressional elections in recent decades have been nationalized. The slogan is particularly silly for Tip O’Neill himself. Sure, O’Neill had to have a firm grip on local politics to get his safe seat in the first place, but after that it was smooth sailing. Jonathan Bernstein disagrees , writing: Yes, but: don’t most Members of the House have ironclad partisan districts? And isn’t the most important single thing they can do to protect themselves involve having pull in state politics to avoid being gerrymandered? That is “all politics is local,” no? There’s also a fair amount they can do to stay on the good side of their local party, thus avoiding a primary fight. And, even in an era of nationalized elections, there’s still plenty a Member of Congress can do to to influence elections on the margins, a
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Introduction: The other day I posted some evidence that, however things used to be, congressional elections are increasingly nationalized, and it’s time to retire Tip O’Neill’s slogan, “all politics is local.” (The discussion started with a remark by O.G. blogger Mickey Kaus; I also explain why I disagree with Jonathan Bernstein’s disagreement with me.) Alan Abramowitz writes in with an analysis of National Election Study from a recent paper of his: Average Correlations of House and Senate Votes with Presidential Job Evaluations by Decade Decade House.Vote Senate.Vote 1972-1980 .31 .28 1982-1990 .39 .42 1992-2000 .43 .50 2002-2008 .51 .57 This indeed seems like strong evidence of nationalization, consistent with other things we’ve seen. I a
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Introduction: Mickey Kaus does a public service by trashing Tip O’Neill’s famous dictum that “all politics are local.” As Kaus point out, all the congressional elections in recent decades have been nationalized. I’d go one step further and say that, sure, all politics are local–if you’re Tip O’Neill and represent a ironclad Democratic seat in Congress. It’s easy to be smug about your political skills if you’re in a safe seat and have enough pull in state politics to avoid your district getting gerrymandered. Then you can sit there and sagely attribute your success to your continuing mastery of local politics rather than to whatever it took to get the seat in the first place.
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Introduction: Yesterday I wrote that Mickey Kaus was right to point out that it’s time to retire Tip O’Neill’s famous dictum that “all politics are local.” As Kaus points out, all the congressional elections in recent decades have been nationalized. The slogan is particularly silly for Tip O’Neill himself. Sure, O’Neill had to have a firm grip on local politics to get his safe seat in the first place, but after that it was smooth sailing. Jonathan Bernstein disagrees , writing: Yes, but: don’t most Members of the House have ironclad partisan districts? And isn’t the most important single thing they can do to protect themselves involve having pull in state politics to avoid being gerrymandered? That is “all politics is local,” no? There’s also a fair amount they can do to stay on the good side of their local party, thus avoiding a primary fight. And, even in an era of nationalized elections, there’s still plenty a Member of Congress can do to to influence elections on the margins, a
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Introduction: Chapter 1 On Sunday we were over on 125 St so I stopped by the Jamaican beef patties place but they were closed. Jesus Taco was next door so I went there instead. What a mistake! I don’t know what Masanao and Yu-Sung could’ve been thinking. Anyway, then I had Jamaican beef patties on the brain so I went by Monday afternoon and asked for 9: 3 spicy beef, 3 mild beef (for the kids), and 3 chicken (not the jerk chicken; Bob got those the other day and they didn’t impress me). I’m about to pay and then a bunch of people come in and start ordering. The woman behind the counter asks if I’m in a hurry, I ask why, she whispers, For the same price you can get a dozen. So I get two more spicy beef and a chicken. She whispers that I shouldn’t tell anyone. I can’t really figure out why I’m getting this special treatment. So I walk out of there with 12 patties. Total cost: $17.25. It’s a good deal: they’re small but not that small. Sure, I ate 6 of them, but I was hungry. Chapt
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Introduction: From 2011: Chapter 1 On Sunday we were over on 125 St so I stopped by the Jamaican beef patties place but they were closed. Jesus Taco was next door so I went there instead. What a mistake! I don’t know what Masanao and Yu-Sung could’ve been thinking. Anyway, then I had Jamaican beef patties on the brain so I went by Monday afternoon and asked for 9: 3 spicy beef, 3 mild beef (for the kids), and 3 chicken (not the jerk chicken; Bob got those the other day and they didn’t impress me). I’m about to pay and then a bunch of people come in and start ordering. The woman behind the counter asks if I’m in a hurry, I ask why, she whispers, For the same price you can get a dozen. So I get two more spicy beef and a chicken. She whispers that I shouldn’t tell anyone. I can’t really figure out why I’m getting this special treatment. So I walk out of there with 12 patties. Total cost: $17.25. It’s a good deal: they’re small but not that small. Sure, I ate 6 of them, but I was h
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