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Introduction: Yesterday I wrote that Mickey Kaus was right to point out that it’s time to retire Tip O’Neill’s famous dictum that “all politics are local.” As Kaus points out, all the congressional elections in recent decades have been nationalized. The slogan is particularly silly for Tip O’Neill himself. Sure, O’Neill had to have a firm grip on local politics to get his safe seat in the first place, but after that it was smooth sailing. Jonathan Bernstein disagrees , writing: Yes, but: don’t most Members of the House have ironclad partisan districts? And isn’t the most important single thing they can do to protect themselves involve having pull in state politics to avoid being gerrymandered? That is “all politics is local,” no? There’s also a fair amount they can do to stay on the good side of their local party, thus avoiding a primary fight. And, even in an era of nationalized elections, there’s still plenty a Member of Congress can do to to influence elections on the margins, a
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1 Yesterday I wrote that Mickey Kaus was right to point out that it’s time to retire Tip O’Neill’s famous dictum that “all politics are local. [sent-1, score-0.482]
2 ” As Kaus points out, all the congressional elections in recent decades have been nationalized. [sent-2, score-0.141]
3 The slogan is particularly silly for Tip O’Neill himself. [sent-3, score-0.076]
4 Sure, O’Neill had to have a firm grip on local politics to get his safe seat in the first place, but after that it was smooth sailing. [sent-4, score-1.031]
5 Jonathan Bernstein disagrees , writing: Yes, but: don’t most Members of the House have ironclad partisan districts? [sent-5, score-0.213]
6 And isn’t the most important single thing they can do to protect themselves involve having pull in state politics to avoid being gerrymandered? [sent-6, score-0.573]
7 There’s also a fair amount they can do to stay on the good side of their local party, thus avoiding a primary fight. [sent-8, score-0.541]
8 And, even in an era of nationalized elections, there’s still plenty a Member of Congress can do to to influence elections on the margins, and that’s often what matters. [sent-9, score-0.29]
9 Sure, “all” politics isn’t that stuff, but it’s quite a bit. [sent-10, score-0.325]
10 If I were a Member of Congress and had the choice between (A) controlling national tides, and (B) controlling my state’s redistricting, then I’m going to choose B every time — and that’s in O’Neill’s column. [sent-11, score-0.326]
11 Here’s my response: Yes, the Tip O’Neills of the world need local skills to win the primary election that gets them into their safe seat, and they need backroom political skills in the state legislature to keep their safe seats every ten years. [sent-12, score-1.251]
12 But I don’t think this is what people are talking about when they say “all politics is local. [sent-13, score-0.393]
13 ” It usually is meant to refer to constituency service. [sent-14, score-0.25]
14 All the constituency service in the world won’t stop you from getting gerrymandered. [sent-15, score-0.25]
15 A couple years ago, Zaiying and I estimated the incumbency advantage in congress and its variation . [sent-16, score-0.525]
16 Earlier estimates (including ours) assumed a constant incumbency effect. [sent-18, score-0.194]
17 In our 2008 paper, Zaiying and I estimated an average incumbency advantage of about 8 percentage points, with the individual effect varying from about 0 to 15 percentage points. [sent-19, score-0.541]
18 So, sure, the evidence is that some politicians are more popular than others (even after controlling for district) and, sure, some of that has gotta be constituency service. [sent-20, score-0.474]
19 Again, I agree with Bernstein that if a congressman wants to stay around, he should remain on good terms with the powers in his state, but I don’t see this as the “local politics” that people are always talking about. [sent-23, score-0.339]
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