andrew_gelman_stats andrew_gelman_stats-2010 andrew_gelman_stats-2010-216 knowledge-graph by maker-knowledge-mining
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Introduction: Anthony Goldbloom from Kaggle writes : We’ve recently put up some interesting new competitions. Last week, Jeff Sonas, the creator of the Chessmetrics rating system, launched a competition to find a chess rating algorithm that performs better than the official Elo system. Already nine teams have created systems that make more accurate predictions than Elo. It’s not a surprise that Elo has been outdone – the system was invented half a century ago before we could easily crunch large amounts of historical data. However, it is a big surprise that Elo has been outperformed so quickly given that it is the product of many years’ work (at least it was a surprise to me). Rob Hyndman from Monash University has put up the first part of a tourism forecasting competition . This part requires participants to forecast the results of 518 different time series. Rob is the editor of the International Journal of Forecasting and has promised to invite the winner to contribute a discussion paper
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1 Anthony Goldbloom from Kaggle writes : We’ve recently put up some interesting new competitions. [sent-1, score-0.077]
2 Last week, Jeff Sonas, the creator of the Chessmetrics rating system, launched a competition to find a chess rating algorithm that performs better than the official Elo system. [sent-2, score-1.283]
3 Already nine teams have created systems that make more accurate predictions than Elo. [sent-3, score-0.294]
4 It’s not a surprise that Elo has been outdone – the system was invented half a century ago before we could easily crunch large amounts of historical data. [sent-4, score-0.713]
5 However, it is a big surprise that Elo has been outperformed so quickly given that it is the product of many years’ work (at least it was a surprise to me). [sent-5, score-0.636]
6 Rob Hyndman from Monash University has put up the first part of a tourism forecasting competition . [sent-6, score-0.616]
7 This part requires participants to forecast the results of 518 different time series. [sent-7, score-0.205]
8 Rob is the editor of the International Journal of Forecasting and has promised to invite the winner to contribute a discussion paper to the journal describing their methodology and giving their results (provided the winner achieves a certain level of predictive accuracy). [sent-8, score-1.043]
9 Chris Raimondi describes his winning method on the Kaggle blog. [sent-10, score-0.069]
10 On the chess example, I’m not at all surprised that Elo has been outperformed. [sent-12, score-0.26]
11 Published alternatives have been out there for years . [sent-13, score-0.078]
12 We even have a chess example in Bayesian Data Analysis (in the first edition, from 1995), and that in turn is based on earlier work by Glickman. [sent-14, score-0.26]
13 I like this competition idea and would like to propose some ideas of our own, through the Applied Statistics Center. [sent-15, score-0.369]
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Introduction: Knowing of my interest in Turing run-around-the-house chess , David Lockhart points me to this : Diving Chess is a chess variant, which is played in a swimming pool. Instead of using chess clocks, each player must submerge themselves underwater during their turn, only to resurface when they are ready to make a move. Players must make a move within 5 seconds of resurfacing (they will receive a warning if not, and three warnings will result in a forfeit). Diving Chess was invented by American Chess Master Etan Ilfeld; the very first exhibition game took place between Ilfeld and former British Chess Champion William Hartston at the Thirdspace gym in Soho on August 2nd, 2011. Hartston won the match which lasted almost two hours such that each player was underwater for an entire hour.
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Introduction: Mark Palko writes : Chess derives most of its complexity through differentiated pieces; with checkers the complexity comes from the interaction between pieces. The result is a series of elegant graph problems where the viable paths change with each move of your opponent. To draw an analogy with chess, imagine if moving your knight could allow your opponent’s bishop to move like a rook. Add to that the potential for traps and manipulation that come with forced capture and you have one of the most remarkable games of all time. . . . It’s not unusual to hear masters of both chess and checkers (draughts) to admit that they prefer the latter. So why does chess get all the respect? Why do you never see a criminal mastermind or a Bond villain playing in a checkers tournament? Part of the problem is that we learn the game as children so we tend to think of it as a children’s game. We focus on how simple the rules are and miss how much complexity and subtlety you can get out of those ru
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Introduction: Denis Cote sends the following , under the heading, “Some bad graphs for your enjoyment”: To start with, they don’t know how to spell “color.” Seriously, though, the graph is a mess. The circular display implies a circular or periodic structure that isn’t actually in the data, the cramped display requires the use of an otherwise-unnecessary color code that makes it difficult to find or make sense of the information, the alphabetical ordering (without even supplying state names, only abbreviations) makes it further difficult to find any patterns. It would be so much better, and even easier, to just display a set of small maps shading states on whether they have different laws. But that’s part of the problem—the clearer graph would also be easier to make! To get a distinctive graph, there needs to be some degree of difficulty. The designers continue with these monstrosities: Here they decide to display only 5 states at a time so that it’s really hard to see any big pi
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Introduction: Duncan Watts writes: The Human Social Dynamics Group in Yahoo Research is seeking highly qualified candidates for a post-doctoral research scientist position. The Human and Social Dynamics group is devoted to understanding the interplay between individual-level behavior (e.g. how people make decisions about what music they like, which dates to go on, or which groups to join) and the social environment in which individual behavior necessarily plays itself out. In particular, we are interested in: * Structure and evolution of social groups and networks * Decision making, social influence, diffusion, and collective decisions * Networking and collaborative problem solving. The intrinsically multi-disciplinary and cross-cutting nature of the subject demands an eclectic range of researchers, both in terms of domain-expertise (e.g. decision sciences, social psychology, sociology) and technical skills (e.g. statistical analysis, mathematical modeling, computer simulations, design o
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