andrew_gelman_stats andrew_gelman_stats-2010 andrew_gelman_stats-2010-278 knowledge-graph by maker-knowledge-mining
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Introduction: There’s a lot of free advice out there. As I wrote a couple years ago, it’s usually presented as advice to individuals, but it’s also interesting to consider the possible total effects if the advice is taken. For example, Nassim Taleb has a webpage that includes a bunch of one-line bits of advice (scroll to item 132 on the linked page). Here’s his final piece of advice: If you dislike someone, leave him alone or eliminate him; don’t attack him verbally. I’m a big Taleb fan (search this blog to see), but this seems like classic negative-sum advice. I can see how it can be a good individual strategy to keep your mouth shut, bide your time, and then sandbag your enemies. But it can’t be good if lots of people are doing this. Verbal attacks are great, as long as there’s a chance to respond. I’ve been in environments where people follow Taleb’s advice, saying nothing and occasionally trying to “eliminate” people, and it’s not pretty. I much prefer for people to be open
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1 As I wrote a couple years ago, it’s usually presented as advice to individuals, but it’s also interesting to consider the possible total effects if the advice is taken. [sent-2, score-0.844]
2 For example, Nassim Taleb has a webpage that includes a bunch of one-line bits of advice (scroll to item 132 on the linked page). [sent-3, score-0.422]
3 Here’s his final piece of advice: If you dislike someone, leave him alone or eliminate him; don’t attack him verbally. [sent-4, score-0.211]
4 I can see how it can be a good individual strategy to keep your mouth shut, bide your time, and then sandbag your enemies. [sent-6, score-0.139]
5 But it can’t be good if lots of people are doing this. [sent-7, score-0.098]
6 Verbal attacks are great, as long as there’s a chance to respond. [sent-8, score-0.139]
7 I’ve been in environments where people follow Taleb’s advice, saying nothing and occasionally trying to “eliminate” people, and it’s not pretty. [sent-9, score-0.163]
8 I much prefer for people to be open about their feelings. [sent-10, score-0.098]
9 Or, if you want to keep your dislikes to yourself, fine, but don’t go around eliminating people! [sent-11, score-0.227]
10 Taleb attacks people verbally all the time, so maybe his advice is tongue in cheek, along the lines of “do as I say, not as I do. [sent-13, score-0.834]
11 ” As noted above, I think Taleb is great, but I’m really down on this sort of advice where people are advised to be more strategic, conniving, etc. [sent-14, score-0.596]
12 In my experience, this does not lead to a pleasant equilibrium where everybody is reasonably savvy. [sent-15, score-0.219]
13 Rather, it can lead to a spiral of mistrust and poor communication. [sent-16, score-0.167]
14 Some are essentially zero-sum or, I suppose, positive-sum, in that they might make you happy and they won’t interfere with anyone else: Walk most of the time, sprint as fast as you can on the occasion; never jog. [sent-20, score-0.398]
15 Fast for long periods of famine, then feast; never diet. [sent-21, score-0.147]
16 Others are comments on Taleb’s personal taste, not really general advice at all: Read trashy gossip magazines and classics or sophisticated works; never the New York Times (or something even more aberrant, Newsweek). [sent-22, score-0.801]
17 Respect those who make a living lying down or standing up, never those who do so sitting down. [sent-23, score-0.467]
18 Actually, as a person who makes his living sitting down, I don’t really appreciate that last bit of advice. [sent-24, score-0.198]
19 Some of the advice I don’t understand at all, or at least I don’t know how to act on: Go for city-states under loose empires, never nation-states. [sent-25, score-0.637]
20 Do crazy things (break furniture once in a while), like the Greeks and stay “rational” in larger decisions. [sent-28, score-0.15]
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