andrew_gelman_stats andrew_gelman_stats-2010 andrew_gelman_stats-2010-487 knowledge-graph by maker-knowledge-mining
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Introduction: Appointed “inflation czar” in late 1970s, Alfred Kahn is most famous for deregulating the airline industry. At the time this seemed to make sense, although in retrospect I’m less a fan of consumer-driven policies than I used to be. When I was a kid we subscribed to Consumer Reports and so I just assumed that everything that was good for the consumer–lower prices, better products, etc.–was a good thing. Upon reflection, though, I think it’s a mistake to focus too narrowly on the interests of consumers. For example (from my Taleb review a couple years ago): The discussion on page 112 of how Ralph Nader saved lives (mostly via seat belts in cars) reminds me of his car-bumper campaign in the 1970s. My dad subscribed to Consumer Reports then (he still does, actually, and I think reads it for pleasure–it must be one of those Depression-mentality things), and at one point they were pushing heavily for the 5-mph bumpers. Apparently there was some federal regulation about how strong
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1 Appointed “inflation czar” in late 1970s, Alfred Kahn is most famous for deregulating the airline industry. [sent-1, score-0.332]
2 When I was a kid we subscribed to Consumer Reports and so I just assumed that everything that was good for the consumer–lower prices, better products, etc. [sent-3, score-0.307]
3 For example (from my Taleb review a couple years ago): The discussion on page 112 of how Ralph Nader saved lives (mostly via seat belts in cars) reminds me of his car-bumper campaign in the 1970s. [sent-6, score-0.22]
4 My dad subscribed to Consumer Reports then (he still does, actually, and I think reads it for pleasure–it must be one of those Depression-mentality things), and at one point they were pushing heavily for the 5-mph bumpers. [sent-7, score-0.274]
5 Apparently there was some federal regulation about how strong car bumpers had to be, to withstand a crash of 2. [sent-8, score-0.225]
6 5 miles per hour, or 5 miles per hour, or whatever–the standard had been 2. [sent-9, score-0.416]
7 5 (I think), then got raised to 5, then lowered back to 2. [sent-10, score-0.087]
8 5, and Consumer’s Union calculated (reasonably correctly, no doubt) that the 5 mph standard would, in the net, save drivers money. [sent-11, score-0.392]
9 But, looking at it now, I would strongly oppose the 5 mph standard. [sent-13, score-0.265]
10 In fact, I’d support a law forbidding such sturdy bumpers. [sent-14, score-0.092]
11 Because, as a pedestrian and cyclist, I don’t want drivers to have that sense of security. [sent-16, score-0.217]
12 I’d rather they be scared of fender-benders and, as a consequence, stay away from me! [sent-17, score-0.087]
13 Anyway, the point here is not to debate auto safety; it’s just an interesting example of how my own views have changed. [sent-18, score-0.072]
14 Regarding airline deregulation, a lot of problems have been caused by cheap flights. [sent-20, score-0.305]
15 I never met Alfred Kahn but I heard a lot about him because he was my mother’s adviser in college. [sent-26, score-0.076]
16 She studied economics at Cornell and had only good things to say about Kahn, (She also took a course with Feller, the famed probabilist, but she didn’t get so much out of that. [sent-27, score-0.08]
17 ) We were all very excited in 1978 or whenever it was when Kahn was in the news as the inflation czar. [sent-28, score-0.13]
18 In a slightly different world, my mom would’ve been doing something like that, rather than staying at home with the kids and getting a mid-level job later in life. [sent-29, score-0.144]
19 I’m not claiming any expertise on airline deregulation! [sent-32, score-0.24]
20 When the name of Alfred Kahn comes up, I’m immediately sent back in my mind to 1948 and 1978, so it’s interesting to reflect upon intellectual and cultural changes since then. [sent-34, score-0.094]
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Introduction: Appointed “inflation czar” in late 1970s, Alfred Kahn is most famous for deregulating the airline industry. At the time this seemed to make sense, although in retrospect I’m less a fan of consumer-driven policies than I used to be. When I was a kid we subscribed to Consumer Reports and so I just assumed that everything that was good for the consumer–lower prices, better products, etc.–was a good thing. Upon reflection, though, I think it’s a mistake to focus too narrowly on the interests of consumers. For example (from my Taleb review a couple years ago): The discussion on page 112 of how Ralph Nader saved lives (mostly via seat belts in cars) reminds me of his car-bumper campaign in the 1970s. My dad subscribed to Consumer Reports then (he still does, actually, and I think reads it for pleasure–it must be one of those Depression-mentality things), and at one point they were pushing heavily for the 5-mph bumpers. Apparently there was some federal regulation about how strong
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Introduction: David Blackwell . Julian Besag . Arnold Zellner . Benoit Mandelbrot and Hirotugu Akaike (late) . Alfred Kahn .
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Introduction: Economist David Backus writes : A casual reader of economic news can’t help but get the impression that the way to get the economy moving is to have people spend more — consume more, in the language of macroeconomics. Seems obvious, doesn’t it? At the risk of making the obvious complicated, I’d say it’s not so obvious. It’s also not obvious that consumption has gone down since the crisis, or that saving has gone up. So what’s going on with the labor market? I’ll get to the rest of the explanation, but first some background. The other day, I posted posted this remark from Backus: This is from my area of work, macroeconomics. The suggestion here is that the economy is growing slowly because consumers aren’t spending money. But how do we know it’s not the reverse: that consumers are spending less because the economy isn’t doing well. As a teacher, I can tell you that it’s almost impossible to get students to understand that the first statement isn’t obviously true
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Introduction: I recently had the occasion to reread my review of The Black Swan, from April 2007. It was fun reading my review (and also this pre-review ; “nothing useful escapes from a blackbody,” indeed). It was like a greatest hits of all my pet ideas that I’ve never published. Looking back, I realize that Taleb really was right about a lot of things. Now that the financial crisis has happened, we tend to forget that the experts who Taleb bashes were not always reasonable at all. Here’s what I wrote in my review, three and a half years ago: On page 19, Taleb refers to the usual investment strategy (which I suppose I actually use myself) as “picking pennies in front of a steamroller.” That’s a cute phrase; did he come up with it? I’m also reminded of the famous Martingale betting system. Several years ago in a university library I came across a charming book by Maxim (of gun fame) where he went through chapter after chapter demolishing the Martingale system. (For those who don’t kno
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Introduction: I keep hearing about textbook publishers who practically bribe instructors to assign their textbooks to students. And then I received this (unsolicited) email: You have recently been sent Pearson (Allyn & Bacon, Longman, Prentice Hall) texts to review for your summer and fall courses. As a thank you for reviewing our texts, I would like to invite you to participate in a brief survey (attached). If you have any questions about the survey, are not sure which books you have been sent, or if you would like to receive instructor’s materials, desk copies, etc. please let me know! If you have recently received your course assignments – let me know as well . Additionally, if you have decided to use a Pearson book in your summer or fall courses, I will provide you with an ISBN that will include discounts and resources for your students at no extra cost! All you have to do is answer the 3 simple questions on the attached survey and you will receive a $10.00 Dunkin Donuts gift card.
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