andrew_gelman_stats andrew_gelman_stats-2010 andrew_gelman_stats-2010-435 knowledge-graph by maker-knowledge-mining
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Introduction: See below. W. D. Burnham is a former professor of mine, T. Ferguson does important work on money and politics, and J. Stiglitz is a colleague at Columbia (whom I’ve never actually met). Could be interesting. Join the Roosevelt Institute on December 2nd, from 8-11am at NYC’s Harvard Club 27 West 44th St. for a panel discussion of the Bipartisan Deficit Commission Report, the future of the U.S. Economy, and the prospects for policy change in the wake of the midterm elections. The conversation will be framed by the release of three new Roosevelt Institute White Papers: Democracy in Peril: The American Turnout Problem and the Path to Plutocracy (Walter Dean Burnham) A World Upside Down: Deficit Fantasies in the Great Recession (Thomas Ferguson and Robert Johnson) Principles and Guidelines For Deficit Reduction (Joseph Stiglitz) Because space is limited, please RSVP to Madeleine Ehrlich at mehrlich@rooseveltinstitute.org or 212.444.9138.
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2 for a panel discussion of the Bipartisan Deficit Commission Report, the future of the U. [sent-9, score-0.17]
3 Economy, and the prospects for policy change in the wake of the midterm elections. [sent-11, score-0.39]
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same-blog 1 1.0000001 435 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-29-Panel Thurs 2 Dec on politics and deficit reduction in NYC
Introduction: See below. W. D. Burnham is a former professor of mine, T. Ferguson does important work on money and politics, and J. Stiglitz is a colleague at Columbia (whom I’ve never actually met). Could be interesting. Join the Roosevelt Institute on December 2nd, from 8-11am at NYC’s Harvard Club 27 West 44th St. for a panel discussion of the Bipartisan Deficit Commission Report, the future of the U.S. Economy, and the prospects for policy change in the wake of the midterm elections. The conversation will be framed by the release of three new Roosevelt Institute White Papers: Democracy in Peril: The American Turnout Problem and the Path to Plutocracy (Walter Dean Burnham) A World Upside Down: Deficit Fantasies in the Great Recession (Thomas Ferguson and Robert Johnson) Principles and Guidelines For Deficit Reduction (Joseph Stiglitz) Because space is limited, please RSVP to Madeleine Ehrlich at mehrlich@rooseveltinstitute.org or 212.444.9138.
Introduction: Jeff Lax sends along this good catch from Ben Somberg, who noticed this from Washington Post writer Lori Montgomery: If Congress doesn’t provide additional stimulus spending, economists inside and outside the administration warn that the nation risks a prolonged period of high unemployment or, more frightening, a descent back into recession. But a competing threat — the exploding federal budget deficit — seems to be resonating more powerfully in Congress and among voters. Somberg is skeptical, though, at least of the part about “resonating among voters.” He finds that in four out of five recent polls, people are much more concerned about jobs than about the deficit: A Pew Research / National Journal poll from early June asked “Which of the following national economic issues worries you most?” Number one was “job situation” with 41%. “Federal budget deficit” got 23%. An NBC / Wall Street Journal poll from early May asked “Please tell me which one of these items you thi
3 0.16101751 1921 andrew gelman stats-2013-07-01-Going meta on Niall Ferguson
Introduction: Ashok Rao shreds the latest book from Niall Ferguson, who we’ve encountered most recently as the source of homophobic slurs but who used to be a serious scholar . Or maybe still is. Remember Linda, that character from the Kahneman and Tversky vignette who was deemed likely to be “a bank teller who is active in the feminist movement”? Maybe Ferguson is a serious scholar who is active in the being-a-hack movement. Perhaps when he’s not writing books where he distorts his sources, or giving lectures with unfortunate slurs, he’s doing historical research. It’s certainly possible. Rao describes how Ferguson distorts his source materials. This is a no-no for any historian, of course, but not such a surprise for Ferguson, who crossed over the John Yoo line awhile ago. Last year I wrote about the paradox of influence: Ferguson gets and keeps the big-money audience by telling them not what he (Ferguson) wants to say—not by giving them his unique insights and understanding—but rat
4 0.15764916 1493 andrew gelman stats-2012-09-12-Niall Ferguson, the John Yoo line, and the paradox of influence
Introduction: Life is continuous but we think in discrete terms. In applied statistics there’s the p=.05 line which tells us whether a finding is significant or not. Baseball has the Mendoza line. And academia has what might be called the John Yoo line : the point at which nothing you write gets taken seriously, and so you might as well become a hack because you have no scholarly reputation remaining. John Yoo, of course, became a hack because, I assume, he had nothing left to lose. In contrast, historian Niall Ferguson has reportedly been moved to hackery because he has so much to gain . At least that is the analysis of Stephen Marche ( link from Basbøll): Ferguson’s critics have simply misunderstood for whom Ferguson was writing that piece. They imagine that he is working as a professor or as a journalist, and that his standards slipped below those of academia or the media. Neither is right. Look at his speaking agent’s Web site. The fee: 50 to 75 grand per appearance. . . . Tha
Introduction: We had some interesting comments on our recent reflections on Niall Ferguson’s ill-chosen remarks in which he attributed Keynes’s economic views (I don’t actually know exactly what Keyesianism is, but I think a key part is for the government to run surpluses during economic booms and deficits during recessions) to the Keynes being gay and marrying a ballerina and talking about poetry. The general idea, I think, is that people without kids don’t care so much about the future, and this motivated Keynes’s party-all-the-time attitude, which might have worked just fine for Eddie Murphy’s girlfriend in the 1980s and in San Francisco bathhouses of the 1970s but, according to Ferguson, is not the ticket for preserving today’s American empire. Some of the more robust defenders of Ferguson may have been disappointed by his followup remarks: “I should not have suggested . . . that Keynes was indifferent to the long run because he had no children, nor that he had no children because he was g
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same-blog 1 0.971416 435 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-29-Panel Thurs 2 Dec on politics and deficit reduction in NYC
Introduction: See below. W. D. Burnham is a former professor of mine, T. Ferguson does important work on money and politics, and J. Stiglitz is a colleague at Columbia (whom I’ve never actually met). Could be interesting. Join the Roosevelt Institute on December 2nd, from 8-11am at NYC’s Harvard Club 27 West 44th St. for a panel discussion of the Bipartisan Deficit Commission Report, the future of the U.S. Economy, and the prospects for policy change in the wake of the midterm elections. The conversation will be framed by the release of three new Roosevelt Institute White Papers: Democracy in Peril: The American Turnout Problem and the Path to Plutocracy (Walter Dean Burnham) A World Upside Down: Deficit Fantasies in the Great Recession (Thomas Ferguson and Robert Johnson) Principles and Guidelines For Deficit Reduction (Joseph Stiglitz) Because space is limited, please RSVP to Madeleine Ehrlich at mehrlich@rooseveltinstitute.org or 212.444.9138.
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Introduction: History professor (or, as the news reports call him, “Harvard historian”) Niall Ferguson got in trouble when speaking at a conference of financial advisors. Tom Kostigen reports : Ferguson responded to a question about Keynes’ famous philosophy of self-interest versus the economic philosophy of Edmund Burke, who believed there was a social contract among the living, as well as the dead. Ferguson asked the audience how many children Keynes had. He explained that Keynes had none because he was a homosexual and was married to a ballerina, with whom he likely talked of “poetry” rather than procreated. . . . Ferguson . . . says it’s only logical that Keynes would take this selfish worldview because he was an “effete” member of society. . . . Throughout his remarks, Ferguson referred to his “friends” in high places. They should all be embarrassed and ashamed of such a connection to such small-minded thinking. Ferguson says U.S. laws and institutions have become degenerate. Acc
3 0.80817223 1040 andrew gelman stats-2011-12-03-Absolutely last Niall Ferguson post ever, in which I offer him serious advice
Introduction: I made the mistake of reading this article by Niall Ferguson summarizing his notorious new book. Here’s the best bit: Far more than in Europe, most Americans remain instinctively loyal to the killer applications of Western ascendancy, from competition all the way through to the work ethic. They know the country has the right software. They just can’t understand why it’s running so damn slowly. What we need to do is to delete the viruses that have crept into our system: the anticompetitive quasi monopolies that blight everything from banking to public education; the politically correct pseudosciences and soft subjects that deflect good students away from hard science; the lobbyists who subvert the rule of law for the sake of the special interests they represent—to say nothing of our crazily dysfunctional system of health care, our overleveraged personal finances, and our newfound unemployment ethic. Then we need to download the updates that are running more successfully
Introduction: We had some interesting comments on our recent reflections on Niall Ferguson’s ill-chosen remarks in which he attributed Keynes’s economic views (I don’t actually know exactly what Keyesianism is, but I think a key part is for the government to run surpluses during economic booms and deficits during recessions) to the Keynes being gay and marrying a ballerina and talking about poetry. The general idea, I think, is that people without kids don’t care so much about the future, and this motivated Keynes’s party-all-the-time attitude, which might have worked just fine for Eddie Murphy’s girlfriend in the 1980s and in San Francisco bathhouses of the 1970s but, according to Ferguson, is not the ticket for preserving today’s American empire. Some of the more robust defenders of Ferguson may have been disappointed by his followup remarks: “I should not have suggested . . . that Keynes was indifferent to the long run because he had no children, nor that he had no children because he was g
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Introduction: Ashok Rao shreds the latest book from Niall Ferguson, who we’ve encountered most recently as the source of homophobic slurs but who used to be a serious scholar . Or maybe still is. Remember Linda, that character from the Kahneman and Tversky vignette who was deemed likely to be “a bank teller who is active in the feminist movement”? Maybe Ferguson is a serious scholar who is active in the being-a-hack movement. Perhaps when he’s not writing books where he distorts his sources, or giving lectures with unfortunate slurs, he’s doing historical research. It’s certainly possible. Rao describes how Ferguson distorts his source materials. This is a no-no for any historian, of course, but not such a surprise for Ferguson, who crossed over the John Yoo line awhile ago. Last year I wrote about the paradox of influence: Ferguson gets and keeps the big-money audience by telling them not what he (Ferguson) wants to say—not by giving them his unique insights and understanding—but rat
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same-blog 1 0.94329119 435 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-29-Panel Thurs 2 Dec on politics and deficit reduction in NYC
Introduction: See below. W. D. Burnham is a former professor of mine, T. Ferguson does important work on money and politics, and J. Stiglitz is a colleague at Columbia (whom I’ve never actually met). Could be interesting. Join the Roosevelt Institute on December 2nd, from 8-11am at NYC’s Harvard Club 27 West 44th St. for a panel discussion of the Bipartisan Deficit Commission Report, the future of the U.S. Economy, and the prospects for policy change in the wake of the midterm elections. The conversation will be framed by the release of three new Roosevelt Institute White Papers: Democracy in Peril: The American Turnout Problem and the Path to Plutocracy (Walter Dean Burnham) A World Upside Down: Deficit Fantasies in the Great Recession (Thomas Ferguson and Robert Johnson) Principles and Guidelines For Deficit Reduction (Joseph Stiglitz) Because space is limited, please RSVP to Madeleine Ehrlich at mehrlich@rooseveltinstitute.org or 212.444.9138.
2 0.84474373 660 andrew gelman stats-2011-04-14-Job opening at NIH for an experienced statistician
Introduction: This announcement might be of interest to some of you. The application deadline is in just a few days: The National Center for Complementary and Alternative Medicine at the National Institutes of Health is seeking an additional experienced statistician to join our Office of Clinical and Regulatory Affairs team. www.usajobs.gov is accepting applications through April 22, 2011 for the general announcement and April 21 for status (typically current federal employee) candidates. To apply to this announcement or for more information, click on the links provided below or the USAJobs link provided above and search for NIH-NCCAM-DE-11-448747 ( external ) or NIH-NCCAM-MP-11-448766 ( internal ). You have to be a U.S. citizen for this one.
3 0.81368816 1717 andrew gelman stats-2013-02-10-Psychology can be improved by adding some economics
Introduction: On this blog I’ve occasionally written about the problems that arise when economists act as amateur psychologists. But the problem can go the other way, too. For example, consider this blog by Berit Brogaard and Kristian Marlow ( link from Abbas Raza). Brogaard and Marlow give several amusing stories about ripoffs (a restaurant that scams customers into buying expensive bottles of wine, a hairdresser that sucks customers into unnecessary treatments, a ghostwriter who takes thousands of dollars in payments and doesn’t do the job, etc.). Then they ask, “How did it happen? Why did you act in this impulsive way? Why didn’t you learn your lesson the first time around? Do you have some kind of brain damage?” They continue with some discussion of the ventromedial prefrontal cortex, the anterior insula, etc etc etc., and then conclude with the following advice: Is there anything we can do to avoid these moments of crazy decision-making? Yes but only by intentionally turning on our
4 0.81279337 537 andrew gelman stats-2011-01-25-Postdoc Position #1: Missing-Data Imputation, Diagnostics, and Applications
Introduction: Andrew Gelman (Columbia University) and Jennifer Hill (New York University) seek to hire a post-doctoral fellow to work on development of iterative imputation algorithms and diagnostics for missing-data imputation. Activities would include model-development, programming, and data analysis. This project is funded by a grant from the Institute of Education Sciences. Other collaborators on the project include Jingchen Liu and Ben Goodrich. This is a two-year position that would start this summer (2011) or earlier if possible. The ideal candidate will have a statistics or computer science background, will be interested in statistical modeling, serious programming, and applications. He or she should be able to work fluently in R and should already know about hierarchical models and Bayesian inference and computation. Experience or interest in designing GUIs would be a bonus, since we are attempting to improve our GUI for missing data imputation. The successful candidate will beco
Introduction: I received the following in email from our publisher: I write with regards to the project to publish a China Edition of your book “Data Analysis Using Regression and Multilevel/Hierarchical Models” (ISBN-13: 9780521686891) for the mainland Chinese market. I regret to inform you that we have been notified by our partner in China, Posts & Telecommunications Press (PTP), that due to various politically sensitive materials in the text, the China Edition has not met with the approval of the publishing authorities in China, and as such PTP will not be able to proceed with the publication of this edition. We will therefore have to cancel plans for the China Edition of your book. Please accept my apologies for this unforeseen development. If you have any queries regarding this, do feel free to let me know. Oooh, it makes me feel so . . . subversive. It reminds me how, in Sunday school, they told us that if we were ever visiting Russia, we should smuggle Bibles in our luggage because the
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