andrew_gelman_stats andrew_gelman_stats-2010 andrew_gelman_stats-2010-279 knowledge-graph by maker-knowledge-mining
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Introduction: Mark Palko writes: We’ve heard a lot recently about the Republican voters going with less electable candidates (last night in particular), but I [Palko] wonder whether this is less a question of putting less weight on electability and more of having a different perception of electability. Is this really a case of primary voters who supported O’Donnell saying “I’d rather be right than be president” or do a large percentage of them believe she has a better than even chance in November. My reply: It’s not so horrible for people to engage in non-strategic voting! Beyond the immediate probabilities of this candidate winning the Senate election in November, primary challenges keep incumbents accountable. The thing I don’t really understand is why there aren’t more such challenges. I suppose they’re unlikely enough to succeed that it’s not usually worth doing it and risking your political career. But, yes, I’m pretty sure that O’Donnell’s voters overestimated the chance that she’
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1 Mark Palko writes: We’ve heard a lot recently about the Republican voters going with less electable candidates (last night in particular), but I [Palko] wonder whether this is less a question of putting less weight on electability and more of having a different perception of electability. [sent-1, score-1.658]
2 Is this really a case of primary voters who supported O’Donnell saying “I’d rather be right than be president” or do a large percentage of them believe she has a better than even chance in November. [sent-2, score-1.054]
3 My reply: It’s not so horrible for people to engage in non-strategic voting! [sent-3, score-0.225]
4 Beyond the immediate probabilities of this candidate winning the Senate election in November, primary challenges keep incumbents accountable. [sent-4, score-1.089]
5 The thing I don’t really understand is why there aren’t more such challenges. [sent-5, score-0.066]
6 I suppose they’re unlikely enough to succeed that it’s not usually worth doing it and risking your political career. [sent-6, score-0.677]
7 But, yes, I’m pretty sure that O’Donnell’s voters overestimated the chance that she’d win in November. [sent-7, score-0.706]
8 The real question here is why little Delaware has 2 seats in the U. [sent-9, score-0.234]
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Introduction: Mark Palko writes: We’ve heard a lot recently about the Republican voters going with less electable candidates (last night in particular), but I [Palko] wonder whether this is less a question of putting less weight on electability and more of having a different perception of electability. Is this really a case of primary voters who supported O’Donnell saying “I’d rather be right than be president” or do a large percentage of them believe she has a better than even chance in November. My reply: It’s not so horrible for people to engage in non-strategic voting! Beyond the immediate probabilities of this candidate winning the Senate election in November, primary challenges keep incumbents accountable. The thing I don’t really understand is why there aren’t more such challenges. I suppose they’re unlikely enough to succeed that it’s not usually worth doing it and risking your political career. But, yes, I’m pretty sure that O’Donnell’s voters overestimated the chance that she’
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Introduction: I think I can best do my civic duty by running this one every Election Day, just like Art Buchwald on Thanksgiving. . . . With a national election coming up, and with the publicity at its maximum, now is a good time to ask, is it rational for you to vote? And, by extension, wass it worth your while to pay attention to whatever the candidates and party leaders have been saying for the year or so? With a chance of casting a decisive vote that is comparable to the chance of winning the lottery, what is the gain from being a good citizen and casting your vote? The short answer is, quite a lot. First the bad news. With 100 million voters, your chance that your vote will be decisive–even if the national election is predicted to be reasonably close–is, at best, 1 in a million in a battleground district and much less in a noncompetitive district such as where I live. (The calculation is based on the chance that your district’s vote will be exactly tied, along with the chance that your di
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Introduction: Fun stories here (from Kliph Nesteroff, link from Mark Palko).
Introduction: Jonathan Chait writes that the most important aspect of a presidential candidate is “political talent”: Republicans have generally understood that an agenda tilted toward the desires of the powerful requires a skilled frontman who can pitch Middle America. Favorite character types include jocks, movie stars, folksy Texans and war heroes. . . . [But the frontrunners for the 2012 Republican nomination] make Michael Dukakis look like John F. Kennedy. They are qualified enough to serve as president, but wildly unqualified to run for president. . . . [Mitch] Daniels’s drawbacks begin — but by no means end — with his lack of height, hair and charisma. . . . [Jeb Bush] suffers from an inherent branding challenge [because of his last name]. . . . [Chris] Christie . . . doesn’t cut a trim figure and who specializes in verbally abusing his constituents. . . . [Haley] Barbour is the comic embodiment of his party’s most negative stereotypes. A Barbour nomination would be the rough equivalent
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