andrew_gelman_stats andrew_gelman_stats-2010 andrew_gelman_stats-2010-349 knowledge-graph by maker-knowledge-mining
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Introduction: Susan points me to this . But I don’t really see the point. Simply leaning the bike against the wall seems like a better option to me.
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same-blog 1 1.0 349 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-18-Bike shelf
Introduction: Susan points me to this . But I don’t really see the point. Simply leaning the bike against the wall seems like a better option to me.
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Introduction: Rohin Dhar writes : While bike theft is an epidemic in major US cities, most people seem resigned that it’s just a fact of life. . . . at Priceonomics, we thought we’d take a crack at trying to reduce bike theft. Could we use software to help people fight back against bike thieves? Professional bike thieves exist because they can make a profit. Luckily, this author went to business school and remembers exactly one equation from the experience: Profit = Revenue – Cost From a criminal’s perspective, the “Cost” of bike theft is about zero. The odds of getting caught are negligible and the penalty is about zero as well. Most commentators suggest that in order to prevent bike theft, the government should increase the penalties to make it a less attractive crime. As we stated earlier, we somehow doubt government intervention is going to happen any time soon. We decided to focus on the revenue half of the equation. Could we make it harder for bike thieves to turn their contraband
3 0.14402235 526 andrew gelman stats-2011-01-19-“If it saves the life of a single child…” and other nonsense
Introduction: This post is by Phil Price. An Oregon legislator, Mitch Greenlick, has proposed to make it illegal in Oregon to carry a child under six years old on one’s bike (including in a child seat) or in a bike trailer. The guy says “”We’ve just done a study showing that 30 percent of riders biking to work at least three days a week have some sort of crash that leads to an injury… When that’s going on out there, what happens when you have a four year old on the back of a bike?” The study is from Oregon Health Sciences University, at which the legislator is a professor. Greenlick also says “”If it’s true that it’s unsafe, we have an obligation to protect people. If I thought a law would save one child’s life, I would step in and do it. Wouldn’t you?” There are two statistical issues here. The first is in the category of “lies, damn lies, and statistics,” and involves the statement about how many riders have injuries. As quoted on a blog , the author of the study in question says th
Introduction: A colleague recently sent me a copy of some articles on the estimation of treatment interactions (a topic that’s interested me for awhile). One of the articles, which appeared in the Lancet in 2000, was called “ Subgroup analysis and other (mis)uses of baseline data in clinical trials ,” by Susan F. Assmann, Stuart J. Pocock, Laura E. Enos, and Linda E. Kasten. . . . Hey, wait a minute–I know Susan Assmann! Well, I sort of know her. When I was a freshman in college, I asked my adviser, who was an applied math prof, if I could do some research. He connected me to Susan, who was one of his Ph.D. students, and she gave me a tiny part of her thesis to work on. The problem went as follows. You have a function f(x), for x going from 0 to infinity, that is defined as follows. Between 0 and 1, f(x)=x. Then, for x higher than 1, f’(x) = f(x) – f(x-1). The goal is to figure out what f(x) does. I think I’m getting this right here, but I might be getting confused on some of the detai
5 0.11755103 68 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-03-…pretty soon you’re talking real money.
Introduction: A New York Times article reports the opening of a half-mile section of bike path, recently built along the west side of Manhattan at a cost of $16M, or roughly $30 million per mile. That’s about $5700 per linear foot. Kinda sounds like a lot, doesn’t it? Well, $30 million per mile for about one car-lane mile is a lot, but it’s not out of line compared to other urban highway construction costs. The Doyle Drive project in San Francisco — a freeway to replace the current old and deteriorating freeway approach to the Golden Gate Bridge — is currently under way at $1 billion for 1.6 miles…but hey, it will have six lanes each way, so that isn’t so bad, at $50 million per lane-mile. And there are other components to the project, too, not just building the highway (there will also be bike paths, landscaping, on- and off-ramps, and so on). All in all it seems roughly in line with the New York bike lane project. Speaking of the Doyle Drive project, one expense was the cost of movin
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Introduction: Susan points me to this . But I don’t really see the point. Simply leaning the bike against the wall seems like a better option to me.
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Introduction: EJ points me to this new techno-thriller . Based on the sentence quoted above, I don’t see it selling lots of copies. It reads like a really boring Raymond Chandler. I still think these two movie ideas would be a better sell.
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Introduction: Kieran Healy points to Robin Mahfood, the CEO of the charity Food for the Poor. This really is pretty impressive: you see a lot of good first-name or last-name matches but not so many where the entire name forms a coherent and relevant phrase.
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Introduction: Where are the fixed-gear bike riders? Rohin Dhar explains : At Priceonomics, in order to build our bicycle price guide, we measure what kind of used bikes people are trying to sell and the quantity sold in any city. By mining our database of 1.3 million bicycle listings, we can tell what are the largest markets for used bicycles, how the prices vary by region, and where people who prize fixed gear bikes live. Fixies (fixed gear bikes) are considered to be a strong indicator of hipsterness. For those unfamiliar, a fixed gear bike requires riding in a single gear and the only way to stop the bike is to pedal backwards to help skid the bike to a halt. You can’t “coast” on a fixie; when you are biking downhill, your pedals will keep moving so you better keep pedaling too. Because of the minimalism of this fixed gear system, the bikes tend to be aesthetically pleasing but somewhat challenging to ride. . . . In short, fixed gear bikes = hipsters, and New York boroug
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Introduction: I was reading this news article by famed business reporter James Stewart: Measured by market capitalization, Apple is the world’s biggest public company. . . . Sales for the quarter that ended Dec. 31 . . . totaled $46.33 billion, up 73 percent from the year before. Earnings more than doubled. . . . Here is the rub: Apple is so big, it’s running up against the law of large numbers. Huh? At this point I sat up, curious. Stewart continued: Also known as the golden theorem, with a proof attributed to the 17th-century Swiss mathematician Jacob Bernoulli, the law states that a variable will revert to a mean over a large sample of results. In the case of the largest companies, it suggests that high earnings growth and a rapid rise in share price will slow as those companies grow ever larger. If Apple’s share price grew even 20 percent a year for the next decade, which is far below its current blistering pace, its $500 billion market capitalization would be more than $3 tri
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Introduction: Susan points me to this . But I don’t really see the point. Simply leaning the bike against the wall seems like a better option to me.
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Introduction: Basbøll : My aim is Socratic. I don’t want to help you become more knowledgeable. I want to help you better distinguish what you know from what you don’t know. Excellent point. Indeed, laying out what I do know and tracing the boundary of my ignorance, that’s what writing is all about for me.
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