andrew_gelman_stats andrew_gelman_stats-2010 andrew_gelman_stats-2010-175 knowledge-graph by maker-knowledge-mining

175 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-02-A useful rule of thumb


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Introduction: Don’t trust anyone who refers to gambling as “gaming.”


Summary: the most important sentenses genereted by tfidf model

sentIndex sentText sentNum sentScore

1 Don’t trust anyone who refers to gambling as “gaming. [sent-1, score-1.924]


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tfidf for this blog:

wordName wordTfidf (topN-words)

[('gambling', 0.689), ('refers', 0.502), ('trust', 0.41), ('anyone', 0.323)]

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same-blog 1 1.0 175 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-02-A useful rule of thumb

Introduction: Don’t trust anyone who refers to gambling as “gaming.”

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Introduction: Hey, this looks cool: Towards a Theory of Trust in Networks of Humans and Computers Virgil Gligor Carnegie Mellon University We argue that a general theory of trust in networks of humans and computers must be build on both a theory of behavioral trust and a theory of computational trust. This argument is motivated by increased participation of people in social networking, crowdsourcing, human computation, and socio-economic protocols, e.g., protocols modeled by trust and gift-exchange games, norms-establishing contracts, and scams/deception. User participation in these protocols relies primarily on trust, since on-line verification of protocol compliance is often impractical; e.g., verification can lead to undecidable problems, co-NP complete test procedures, and user inconvenience. Trust is captured by participant preferences (i.e., risk and betrayal aversion) and beliefs in the trustworthiness of other protocol participants. Both preferences and beliefs can be enhanced

3 0.1877857 1622 andrew gelman stats-2012-12-14-Can gambling addicts be identified in gambling venues?

Introduction: Mark Griffiths, a psychologist who apparently is Europe’s only Professor of Gambling Studies, writes: You made the comment about how difficult it is to spot problem gamblers. I and a couple of colleagues [Paul Delfabbro and Daniel Kingjust] published this review of all the research done on spotting problem gamblers in online and offline gaming venues (attached) that I covered in one of my recent blogs .

4 0.17861894 715 andrew gelman stats-2011-05-16-“It doesn’t matter if you believe in God. What matters is if God believes in you.”

Introduction: Mark Chaves sent me this great article on religion and religious practice: After reading a book or article in the scientific study of religion, I [Chaves] wonder if you ever find yourself thinking, “I just don’t believe it.” I have this experience uncomfortably often, and I think it’s because of a pervasive problem in the scientific study of religion. I want to describe that problem and how to overcome it. The problem is illustrated in a story told by Meyer Fortes. He once asked a rainmaker in a native culture he was studying to perform the rainmaking ceremony for him. The rainmaker refused, replying: “Don’t be a fool, whoever makes a rain-making ceremony in the dry season?” The problem is illustrated in a different way in a story told by Jay Demerath. He was in Israel, visiting friends for a Sabbath dinner. The man of the house, a conservative rabbi, stopped in the middle of chanting the prayers to say cheerfully: “You know, we don’t believe in any of this. But then in Judai

5 0.1329098 2344 andrew gelman stats-2014-05-23-The gremlins did it? Iffy statistics drive strong policy recommendations

Introduction: Recently in the sister blog . Yet another chapter in the continuing saga, Don’t Trust Polynomials. P.S. More here .

6 0.13282165 1619 andrew gelman stats-2012-12-11-There are four ways to get fired from Caesars: (1) theft, (2) sexual harassment, (3) running an experiment without a control group, and (4) keeping a gambling addict away from the casino

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lsi for this blog:

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[(0, 0.016), (1, -0.011), (2, -0.01), (3, -0.004), (4, -0.009), (5, 0.004), (6, 0.005), (7, 0.011), (8, 0.007), (9, 0.005), (10, -0.01), (11, -0.009), (12, -0.001), (13, 0.008), (14, -0.008), (15, 0.003), (16, -0.009), (17, -0.001), (18, 0.024), (19, 0.003), (20, -0.006), (21, -0.009), (22, -0.028), (23, 0.002), (24, -0.002), (25, -0.008), (26, 0.033), (27, 0.006), (28, 0.027), (29, -0.018), (30, -0.017), (31, -0.008), (32, 0.009), (33, -0.011), (34, -0.0), (35, -0.004), (36, 0.006), (37, -0.001), (38, 0.005), (39, 0.009), (40, 0.033), (41, 0.001), (42, 0.015), (43, -0.003), (44, -0.002), (45, 0.021), (46, 0.022), (47, 0.019), (48, -0.008), (49, -0.011)]

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Introduction: Don’t trust anyone who refers to gambling as “gaming.”

2 0.58620441 1051 andrew gelman stats-2011-12-10-Towards a Theory of Trust in Networks of Humans and Computers

Introduction: Hey, this looks cool: Towards a Theory of Trust in Networks of Humans and Computers Virgil Gligor Carnegie Mellon University We argue that a general theory of trust in networks of humans and computers must be build on both a theory of behavioral trust and a theory of computational trust. This argument is motivated by increased participation of people in social networking, crowdsourcing, human computation, and socio-economic protocols, e.g., protocols modeled by trust and gift-exchange games, norms-establishing contracts, and scams/deception. User participation in these protocols relies primarily on trust, since on-line verification of protocol compliance is often impractical; e.g., verification can lead to undecidable problems, co-NP complete test procedures, and user inconvenience. Trust is captured by participant preferences (i.e., risk and betrayal aversion) and beliefs in the trustworthiness of other protocol participants. Both preferences and beliefs can be enhanced

3 0.51861274 1932 andrew gelman stats-2013-07-10-Don’t trust the Turk

Introduction: Dan Kahan gives a bunch of reasons not to trust Mechanical Turk in psychology experiments, in particular when studying “hypotheses about cognition and political conflict over societal risks and other policy-relevant facts.”

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Introduction: A comment by Mark Palko reminded me that, while I’m a huge Marquand fan, I think The Late George Apley is way overrated. My theory is that Marquand’s best books don’t fit into the modernist way of looking about literature, and that the gatekeepers of the 1930s and 1940s, when judging Marquand by these standards, conveniently labeled Apley has his best book because it had a form–Edith-Wharton-style satire–that they could handle. In contrast, Point of No Return and all the other classics are a mixture of seriousness and satire that left critics uneasy. Perhaps there’s a way to study this sort of thing more systematically?

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Introduction: Nicholas Christakis, a medical scientist perhaps best known for his controversial claim (see also here ), based on joint work with James Fowler, that obesity is contagious, writes : The social sciences have stagnated. They offer essentially the same set of academic departments and disciplines that they have for nearly 100 years: sociology, economics, anthropology, psychology and political science. This is not only boring but also counterproductive, constraining engagement with the scientific cutting edge and stifling the creation of new and useful knowledge. . . . I’m not suggesting that social scientists stop teaching and investigating classic topics like monopoly power, racial profiling and health inequality. But everyone knows that monopoly power is bad for markets, that people are racially biased and that illness is unequally distributed by social class. There are diminishing returns from the continuing study of many such topics. And repeatedly observing these phenomen

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Introduction: Don’t trust anyone who refers to gambling as “gaming.”

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Introduction: “Ich glaube, dass die Wahrscheinlichkeitsrechnung das richtige Werkzeug zum Lösen solcher Probleme ist”, sagt Andrew Gelman , Statistikprofessor von der Columbia-Universität in New York. Wie oft aber derart knifflige Aufgaben im realen Leben auftauchen, könne er nicht sagen. Was fast schon beruhigend klingt. OK, fine.

3 0.5820111 2153 andrew gelman stats-2013-12-29-“Statistics Done Wrong”

Introduction: Govind Manian points me to this online textbook by Alex Reinhart. It’s hard for me to evaluate because I am so close to the material. But on first glance it looks pretty reasonable to me.

4 0.50233716 679 andrew gelman stats-2011-04-25-My talk at Stanford on Tuesday

Introduction: Of Beauty, Sex, and Power: Statistical Challenges in Estimating Small Effects. Tues 26 Apr, 12-1 in the Graham Stuart Lounge, 4th Floor, Encina West.

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Introduction: These (from Shaun Usher) are surprisingly good, especially since he appears to come up with new lists and letters pretty regularly. I suppose a lot of them get sent in from readers, but still. Here’s my favorite recent item, a letter sent to the Seattle Bureau of Prohibition in 1931: Dear Sir: My husband is in the habit of buying a quart of wiskey every other day from a Chinese bootlegger named Chin Waugh living at 317-16th near Alder street. We need this money for household expenses. Will you please have his place raided? He keeps a supply planted in the garden and a smaller quantity under the back steps for quick delivery. If you make the raid at 9:30 any morning you will be sure to get the goods and Chin also as he leaves the house at 10 o’clock and may clean up before he goes. Thanking you in advance, I remain yours truly, Mrs. Hillyer

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