andrew_gelman_stats andrew_gelman_stats-2010 andrew_gelman_stats-2010-103 knowledge-graph by maker-knowledge-mining
Source: html
Introduction: The commenting feature doesn’t work for me on Helen DeWitt’s blog so I’m forced to comment on her entries here. 1. She discusses whether it’s fair to characterize The Last Samurai . I have a slightly different perspective on this: I’ve never really understood the idea that a “beach read” should be something light and fluffy. On the beach, you can relax, you have the time to get into anything. I could see wanting something light on the subway–you have to be able to get into it right away and follow it amid all the jostles. I guess the point is that when you’re at the beach, you’re far from the library. So what you really want for the beach is not necessarily something relaxing or easy to read, but rather a sure thing , a known quantity that you’ll definitely enjoy. No point sitting on the beach reading a book that you hate. 2. In an interesting discussion of translation, DeWitt recommends learning a language by reading great literature in the original tongue. Seems f
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1 The commenting feature doesn’t work for me on Helen DeWitt’s blog so I’m forced to comment on her entries here. [sent-1, score-0.362]
2 She discusses whether it’s fair to characterize The Last Samurai . [sent-3, score-0.169]
3 I have a slightly different perspective on this: I’ve never really understood the idea that a “beach read” should be something light and fluffy. [sent-4, score-0.45]
4 I could see wanting something light on the subway–you have to be able to get into it right away and follow it amid all the jostles. [sent-6, score-0.44]
5 So what you really want for the beach is not necessarily something relaxing or easy to read, but rather a sure thing , a known quantity that you’ll definitely enjoy. [sent-8, score-1.064]
6 No point sitting on the beach reading a book that you hate. [sent-9, score-0.821]
7 In an interesting discussion of translation, DeWitt recommends learning a language by reading great literature in the original tongue. [sent-11, score-0.355]
8 but, I gotta admit that I think of pleasure reading (even serious stuff) as a way to relax. [sent-15, score-0.354]
9 For me, reading a novel (or even the newspaper) in French or Spanish is a substitute for work, not a substitute for bedtime reading. [sent-16, score-0.68]
10 Apparently many people use tax-preparation software, even though tax forms aren’t really hard to fill out. [sent-18, score-0.325]
11 One thing I’ll say in encouragement of doing your own taxes is that I used to do my own taxes and every once in awhile I’d make a mistake, but . [sent-19, score-0.531]
12 I’d just send the government a check for what I owed and there’d be a little fine. [sent-23, score-0.128]
13 Sometimes I’d overpay by mistake and they’d send me a refund check. [sent-25, score-0.257]
14 I can’t guarantee this will happen to you, but those were my experiences. [sent-26, score-0.1]
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same-blog 1 1.0 103 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-22-Beach reads, Proust, and income tax
Introduction: The commenting feature doesn’t work for me on Helen DeWitt’s blog so I’m forced to comment on her entries here. 1. She discusses whether it’s fair to characterize The Last Samurai . I have a slightly different perspective on this: I’ve never really understood the idea that a “beach read” should be something light and fluffy. On the beach, you can relax, you have the time to get into anything. I could see wanting something light on the subway–you have to be able to get into it right away and follow it amid all the jostles. I guess the point is that when you’re at the beach, you’re far from the library. So what you really want for the beach is not necessarily something relaxing or easy to read, but rather a sure thing , a known quantity that you’ll definitely enjoy. No point sitting on the beach reading a book that you hate. 2. In an interesting discussion of translation, DeWitt recommends learning a language by reading great literature in the original tongue. Seems f
2 0.16467959 886 andrew gelman stats-2011-09-02-The new Helen DeWitt novel
Introduction: I read the excerpt in n+1. As one would expect of DeWitt, it was great, while being nothing at all like her other book. THe new book reminded me a bit of Philip K. Dick. Here’s a brief excerpt (which is not actually particularly PKD-like) of the main character talking to himself: “I don’t have what it takes,” he said. He had never said it before because saying it would be like admitting he couldn’t make the grade. I’m not pulling out this quote to sell you on the book. The lines just struck me because of the exquisite distinctions, the idea that “don’t have what it takes” is somehow different than “couldn’t make the grade,” the idea that this character, who expresses his thoughts in empty phrases, ends up assigning to these phrases a set of precise meanings that make sense only to him. One reason Lightning Rods was so fun and refreshing to read is that it’s a non-formula novel that, unlike ChabonFranzenLethemBakerEtc—and, for that matter, unlike Virginia Woolf—is about c
3 0.11527504 111 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-26-Tough love as a style of writing
Introduction: Helen DeWitt links to an interview with Seth Godin, who makes some commonplace but useful observations on jobs and careers. It’s fine, but whenever I read this sort of thing, I get annoyed by the super-aggressive writing style. These internet guys–Seth Godin, Clay Shirky, Philip Greenspun, Jeff Jarvis, and so on–are always getting in your face, telling you how everything you thought was true was wrong. Some of the things these guys say are just silly (for example, Godin’s implication that Bob Dylan is more of a success than the Monkees because Dylan sells more tickets), other times they have interesting insights, but reading any of them for awhile just sets me on edge. I can’t take being shouted at, and I get a little tired of hearing over and over again that various people, industries, etc., are dinosaurs. Where does this aggressive style come from? My guess is that it’s coming from the vast supply of “business books” out there. These are books that are supposed to grab yo
4 0.11087484 688 andrew gelman stats-2011-04-30-Why it’s so relaxing to think about social issues
Introduction: I was invited by the Columbia University residence halls to speak at an event on gay marriage. (I’ve assisted my colleagues Jeff Lax and Justin Phillips in their research on the topic.) The event sounded fun–unfortunately I’ll be out of town that weekend so can’t make it–but it got me thinking about how gay marriage and other social issues are so relaxing to think about because there’s no need for doubt. About half of Americans support same-sex marriage and about half oppose it. And the funny thing is, you can be absolutely certain in your conviction, from either direction. If you support, it’s a simple matter of human rights, and it’s a bit ridiculous to suppose that if gay marriage is allowed, it will somehow wreck all the straight marriages out there. Conversely, you can oppose on the clear rationale of wanting to keep marriage the same as it’s always been, and suggest that same-sex couples can be free to get together outside of marriage, as they always could. (Hey, it was g
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Introduction: Helen DeWitt writes about The Ask, the new book by Sam Lipsyte, author of a hilarious book I read a couple years ago about a loser guy who goes to his high school reunion. I haven’t read Lipsyte’s new book but was interested to see that he teaches at Columbia. Perhaps I can take him to lunch (either before or after I work up the courage to call Gary Shteyngart and ask him about my theory that the main character of that book is a symbol of modern-day America). In any case, in the grand tradition of reviewing the review, I have some thoughts inspired by DeWitt, who quotes from this interview : LRS: I was studying writing at college and then this professor showed up, a disciple of Gordon Lish, and we operated according to the Lish method. You start reading your work and then as soon as you hit a false note she made you stop. Lipsyte: Yeah, Lish would say, “That’s bullshit!” If they did this for statistics articles, I think they’d rarely get past the abstract, most of the ti
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Introduction: The commenting feature doesn’t work for me on Helen DeWitt’s blog so I’m forced to comment on her entries here. 1. She discusses whether it’s fair to characterize The Last Samurai . I have a slightly different perspective on this: I’ve never really understood the idea that a “beach read” should be something light and fluffy. On the beach, you can relax, you have the time to get into anything. I could see wanting something light on the subway–you have to be able to get into it right away and follow it amid all the jostles. I guess the point is that when you’re at the beach, you’re far from the library. So what you really want for the beach is not necessarily something relaxing or easy to read, but rather a sure thing , a known quantity that you’ll definitely enjoy. No point sitting on the beach reading a book that you hate. 2. In an interesting discussion of translation, DeWitt recommends learning a language by reading great literature in the original tongue. Seems f
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Introduction: I happened to be looking at Slate (I know, I know, but I’d already browsed Gawker and I was desperately avoiding doing real work) and came across this article by Alice Gregory entitled, “I Read Everything Janet Malcolm Ever Published. I’m in awe of her.” I too think Malcolm is an excellent writer, but (a) I’m not happy that she gets off the hook for faking quotes , and (b) I’m really really not happy with her apparent attempt to try to force a mistrial for a convicted killer. I just can’t get over that, for some reason. I can appreciate Picasso’s genius even though he beat his wives or whatever it was he did, I can enjoy the music of Jackson Browne, etc. But for some reason this Malcolm stuff sticks in my craw. There’s no deep meaning to this—I recognize it is a somewhat irrational attitude on my part, I just wanted to share it with you.
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Introduction: Tyler Cowen asks what is the ultimate left-wing novel? He comes up with John Steinbeck and refers us to this list by Josh Leach that includes soclal-realist novels from around 1900. But Cowen is looking for something more “analytically or philosophically comprehensive.” My vote for the ultimate left-wing novel is 1984. The story and the political philosophy fit together well, and it’s also widely read (which is an important part of being the “ultimate” novel of any sort, I think; it wouldn’t do to choose something too obscure). Or maybe Gulliver’s Travels, but I’ve never actually read that, so I don’t know if it qualifies as being left-wing. Certainly you can’t get much more political than 1984, and I don’t think you can get much more left-wing either. (If you get any more left-wing than that, you start to loop around the circle and become right-wing. For example, I don’t think that a novel extolling the brilliance of Stalin or Mao would be considered left-wing in a modern
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Introduction: I made the mistake of googling myself (I know, I know . . .) and came across a couple of rude bloggers criticizing something I’d written. I don’t mind criticism, and lord knows I can be a rude blogger myself at times, but these criticisms were really bad, a mix of already-refuted arguments and new claims that were just flat-out ridiculous. Really bad stuff. I then spent about an hour, on and off, writing a long long post explaining why they were wrong and how they could make their arguments better. But then, before I hit Send, I realized it would a mistake to post my response. Getting into a fight with these people whom I’d never heard of before . . . what’s the point? If they want to comment on my blog, I will respond (within reason), or if they are well known researchers or journalists, it’s perhaps worth correcting them. Or if they made an interesting argument, sure. But there’s no point in scouring the web looking for bad arguments to refute. That way lies madness. I w
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Introduction: Journalist Jonathan Rauch writes that the internet is Sturgeon squared: This is the blogosphere. I’m not getting paid to be here. I’m here to get incredibly famous (in my case, even more incredibly famous) so that I can get paid somewhere else. . . . The average quality of newspapers and (published) novels is far, far better than the average quality of blog posts (and–ugh!–comments). This is because people pay for newspapers and novels. What distinguishes newspapers and novels is how much does not get published in them, because people won’t pay for it. Payment is a filter, and a pretty good one. Imperfect, of course. But pointing out the defects of the old model is merely changing the subject if the new model is worse. . . . Yes, the new model is bringing a lot of new content into being. But most of it is bad. And it’s displacing a lot of better content, by destroying the business model for quality. Even in the information economy, there’s no free lunch. . . . Yes, there’s g
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Introduction: The commenting feature doesn’t work for me on Helen DeWitt’s blog so I’m forced to comment on her entries here. 1. She discusses whether it’s fair to characterize The Last Samurai . I have a slightly different perspective on this: I’ve never really understood the idea that a “beach read” should be something light and fluffy. On the beach, you can relax, you have the time to get into anything. I could see wanting something light on the subway–you have to be able to get into it right away and follow it amid all the jostles. I guess the point is that when you’re at the beach, you’re far from the library. So what you really want for the beach is not necessarily something relaxing or easy to read, but rather a sure thing , a known quantity that you’ll definitely enjoy. No point sitting on the beach reading a book that you hate. 2. In an interesting discussion of translation, DeWitt recommends learning a language by reading great literature in the original tongue. Seems f
2 0.93884897 162 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-25-Darn that Lindsey Graham! (or, “Mr. P Predicts the Kagan vote”)
Introduction: On the basis of two papers and because it is completely obvious, we (meaning me , Justin, and John ) predict that Elena Kagan will get confirmed to be an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court. But we also want to see how close we can come to predicting the votes for and against. We actually have two sets of predictions, both using the MRP technique discussed previously on this blog. The first is based on our recent paper in the Journal of Politics showing that support for the nominee in a senator’s home state plays a striking role in whether she or he votes to confirm the nominee. The second is based on a new working paper extending “basic” MRP to show that senators respond far more to their co-partisans than the median voter in their home states. Usually, our vote “predictions” do not differ much, but there is a group of senators who are predicted to vote yes for Kagan with a probability around 50% and the two sets of predictions thus differ for Kagan more than usual.
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Introduction: Subhash Lele writes: I was wondering if you might know some good references to Bayesian treatment of parameter estimation for U(0,b) type distributions. I am looking for cases where the parameter is on the boundary. I would appreciate any help and advice you could provide. I am, in particular, looking for an MCMC (preferably in WinBUGS) based approach. I figured out the WinBUGS part but I am still curious about the theoretical papers, asymptotics etc. I actually can’t think of any examples! But maybe you, the readers, can. We also should think of the best way to implement this model in Stan. We like to transform to avoid hard boundary constraints, but it seems a bit tacky to do a data-based transformation (which itself would not work if there are latent variables). P.S. I actually saw Lele speak at a statistics conference around 20 years ago. There was a lively exchange between Lele and an older guy who was working on similar problems using a different method. The oth
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Introduction: Mike Axelrod writes: I [Axelrod] am interested in building a model that predicts voting on the precinct level, using variables such as party registration, age, sex, income etc. Surely political scientists have worked on this problem. I would be grateful for any reference you could provide in the way of articles and books. My reply: Political scientists have worked on this problem, and it’s easy enough to imagine hierarchical models of the sort discussed in my book with Jennifer. I can picture what I would do if asked to forecast at the precinct level, for example to model exit polls. (In fact, I was briefly hired by the exit poll consortium in 2000 to do this, but then after I told them about hierarchical Bayes, they un-hired me!) But I don’t actually know of any literature on precinct-level forecasting. Perhaps one of you out there knows of some references?
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