andrew_gelman_stats andrew_gelman_stats-2010 andrew_gelman_stats-2010-353 knowledge-graph by maker-knowledge-mining
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Introduction: Christopher Uggen reports . I’m surprised the difference is so small. I would’ve thought the crime rate was something like 5 times higher in Detroit than in Minneapolis. I guess Minneapolis must have some rough neighborhoods. Or maybe it’s just that I don’t have a good framework for thinking about crime statistics.
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same-blog 1 1.0 353 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-19-The violent crime rate was about 75% higher in Detroit than in Minneapolis in 2009
Introduction: Christopher Uggen reports . I’m surprised the difference is so small. I would’ve thought the crime rate was something like 5 times higher in Detroit than in Minneapolis. I guess Minneapolis must have some rough neighborhoods. Or maybe it’s just that I don’t have a good framework for thinking about crime statistics.
2 0.57096553 356 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-20-Ranking on crime rankings
Introduction: Following up on our discussion of crime rates–surprisingly (to me), Detroit’s violent crime rate was only 75% more than Minneapolis’s–Chris Uggen pointed me to this warning from Richard Rosenfeld and Janet Lauritsen about comparative crime stats.
Introduction: Solomon Hsiang writes : I [Hsiang] have posted about high temperature inducing individuals to exhibit more violent behavior when driving, playing baseball and prowling bars. These cases are neat anecdotes that let us see the “pure aggression” response in lab-like conditions. But they don’t affect most of us too much. But violent crime in the real world affects everyone. Earlier, I posted a paper by Jacob et al. that looked at assault in the USA for about a decade – they found that higher temperatures lead to more assault and that the rise in violent crimes rose more quickly than the analogous rise in non-violent property-crime, an indicator that there is a “pure aggression” component to the rise in violent crime. A new working paper “Crime, Weather, and Climate Change” by recent Harvard grad Matthew Ranson puts together an impressive data set of all types of crime in USA counties for 50 years. The results tell the aggression story using street-level data very clearly [click to
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Introduction: I remember attending a talk a few years ago by my political science colleague John Huber in which he discussed cross-national comparisons of religious attitudes. One thing I remember is that the U.S. is highly religious, another thing I remembered is that lots more Americans believe in heaven than believe in hell. Some of this went into Red State Blue State—not the heaven/hell thing, but the graph of religiosity vs. GDP: and the corresponding graph of religious attendance vs. GDP for U.S. states: Also we learned that, at the individual level, the correlation of religious attendance with income is zero (according to survey reports, rich Americans are neither more nor less likely than poor Americans to go to church regularly): while the correlation of prayer with income is strongly negative (poor Americans are much more likely than rich Americans to regularly pray): Anyway, with all this, I was primed to be interested in a recent study by psychologist
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Introduction: Following up on this post by Noah Smith on economics in science fiction, Mark Palko writes on economics in crime fiction. Just as almost all science fiction is ultimately about politics, one could say that just about all crime fiction is about economics. But if I had to pick one crime novelist with an economics focus, I’d pick George V. Higgins. In one of his novels, his character Jerry Kennedy had a riff on the difference between guys who get a salary and guys who have to work for every dollar. But, really, almost all his novels are full of economics.
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same-blog 1 0.90166944 353 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-19-The violent crime rate was about 75% higher in Detroit than in Minneapolis in 2009
Introduction: Christopher Uggen reports . I’m surprised the difference is so small. I would’ve thought the crime rate was something like 5 times higher in Detroit than in Minneapolis. I guess Minneapolis must have some rough neighborhoods. Or maybe it’s just that I don’t have a good framework for thinking about crime statistics.
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Introduction: Following up on our discussion of crime rates–surprisingly (to me), Detroit’s violent crime rate was only 75% more than Minneapolis’s–Chris Uggen pointed me to this warning from Richard Rosenfeld and Janet Lauritsen about comparative crime stats.
Introduction: Solomon Hsiang writes : I [Hsiang] have posted about high temperature inducing individuals to exhibit more violent behavior when driving, playing baseball and prowling bars. These cases are neat anecdotes that let us see the “pure aggression” response in lab-like conditions. But they don’t affect most of us too much. But violent crime in the real world affects everyone. Earlier, I posted a paper by Jacob et al. that looked at assault in the USA for about a decade – they found that higher temperatures lead to more assault and that the rise in violent crimes rose more quickly than the analogous rise in non-violent property-crime, an indicator that there is a “pure aggression” component to the rise in violent crime. A new working paper “Crime, Weather, and Climate Change” by recent Harvard grad Matthew Ranson puts together an impressive data set of all types of crime in USA counties for 50 years. The results tell the aggression story using street-level data very clearly [click to
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Introduction: See here (if you care). P.S. Kaus writes that, when he was on William Bennett’s radio show, “Bennett immediately zeroed in on a key political mystery: Are African-American voters on board with the Democrats’ recent amnesty-for-illegal-immigrants program?” I wonder if Kaus asked Bennett about this quote : But I [Bennett] do know that it’s true that if you wanted to reduce crime, you could — if that were your sole purpose, you could abort every black baby in this country, and your crime rate would go down. As Brendan Nyhan notes, Bennett wasn’t actually suggesting that black babies be aborted–in fact, Bennett said, “That would be an impossible, ridiculous, and morally reprehensible thing to do, but your crime rate would go down.” Bennett definitely sounds like the go-to guy for a savvy discussion of the black vote! P.P.S. Just to clarify for those who might think that Bennett was simply calling-it-like-it-is, albeit in a politically incorrect style . . . On his Fre
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Introduction: Christopher Uggen reports . I’m surprised the difference is so small. I would’ve thought the crime rate was something like 5 times higher in Detroit than in Minneapolis. I guess Minneapolis must have some rough neighborhoods. Or maybe it’s just that I don’t have a good framework for thinking about crime statistics.
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Introduction: “Even as you get near the upper reaches of the normal weight range, you begin to see increases in chronic diseases,” said JoAnn Manson, chief of the Division of Preventive Medicine, Brigham and Women’s Hospital, HMS Michael and Lee Bell Professor of Women’s Health, and HSPH professor of epidemiology. “It’s a clear gradient of increase.” Yeah, she would say that. Thin people. And then there’s Frank Hu, professor of nutrition at Harvard: The studies that Flegal [the author of the original study finding a negative correlation between body mass index and mortality] did use included many samples of people who were chronically ill, current smokers and elderly, according to Hu. These factors are associated with weight loss and increased mortality. In other words, people are not dying because they are slim, he said. They are slim because they are dying—of cancer or old age, for example. By doing a meta-analysis of studies that did not properly control for this bias, Flegal amplif
Introduction: From a commenter on the web, 21 May 2010: Tampa Bay: Playing .732 ball in the toughest division in baseball, wiped their feet on NY twice. If they sweep Houston, which seems pretty likely, they will be at .750, which I [the commenter] have never heard of. At the time of that posting, the Rays were 30-11. Quick calculation: if a team is good enough to be expected to win 100 games, that is, Pr(win) = 100/162 = .617, then there’s a 5% chance that they’ll have won at least 30 of their first 41 games. That’s a calculation based on simple probability theory of independent events, which isn’t quite right here but will get you close and is a good way to train one’s intuition , I think. Having a .732 record after 41 games is not unheard-of. The Detroit Tigers won 35 of their first 40 games in 1984: that’s .875. (I happen to remember that fast start, having been an Orioles fan at the time.) Now on to the key ideas The passage quoted above illustrates three statistical fa
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Introduction: I had an email exchange with Patrick Steigler the other day that amused me, so I’ll share it with you. Steigler started with the subject line “Taleb and STDEV vs. MAD” and the message: I came across http://www.edge.org/response-detail/25401 and was wondering what your thoughts on the issue might be. My reply: How come they never ask me for my opinions in these surveys? Steigler: Maybe you need to write a book of aphorisms. me: There’s this: http://andrewgelman.com/2009/05/24/handy_statistic/ and then this, which some students collected from a course I taught: http://www.stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/book/gelman_quotes.pdf Steigler: So, what would you opinion be on the scientific idea that is ready for retirement? me: I guess it’s a good thing they didn’t ask me! Steigler: How about the retirement of p value < .05 for significance? me: Yeah, but that’s too easy. It’s like if someone asks for a pop music recommendation and you say The Beatles. Steigler: Tru
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