andrew_gelman_stats andrew_gelman_stats-2010 andrew_gelman_stats-2010-376 knowledge-graph by maker-knowledge-mining
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Introduction: Red State Blue State: How Will the U.S. Vote? It’s the “annual Halloween and pre-election extravaganza” of the Department of Mathematics and Statistics, and they suggested I could talk on the zombies paper (of course), but I thought the material on voting might be of more general interest. The “How will the U.S. vote?” subtitle was not of my choosing, but I suppose I can add a few slides about the forthcoming election. Fri 29 Oct 2010, 7pm in Ward I, in the basement of the Ward Circle building. Should be fun. I haven’t been to AU since taking a class there, over 30 years ago. P.S. It was indeed fun. Here’s the talk. I did end up briefly describing my zombie research but it didn’t make it into any of the slides.
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2 ” subtitle was not of my choosing, but I suppose I can add a few slides about the forthcoming election. [sent-8, score-0.88]
3 Fri 29 Oct 2010, 7pm in Ward I, in the basement of the Ward Circle building. [sent-9, score-0.214]
4 I haven’t been to AU since taking a class there, over 30 years ago. [sent-11, score-0.302]
5 I did end up briefly describing my zombie research but it didn’t make it into any of the slides. [sent-16, score-0.674]
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Introduction: Red State Blue State: How Will the U.S. Vote? It’s the “annual Halloween and pre-election extravaganza” of the Department of Mathematics and Statistics, and they suggested I could talk on the zombies paper (of course), but I thought the material on voting might be of more general interest. The “How will the U.S. vote?” subtitle was not of my choosing, but I suppose I can add a few slides about the forthcoming election. Fri 29 Oct 2010, 7pm in Ward I, in the basement of the Ward Circle building. Should be fun. I haven’t been to AU since taking a class there, over 30 years ago. P.S. It was indeed fun. Here’s the talk. I did end up briefly describing my zombie research but it didn’t make it into any of the slides.
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Introduction: It went pretty well, especially considering it was an entirely new talk (even though, paradoxically, all the images were old), and even though I had a tough act to follow: I came on immediately after an excellent short presentation by Jed Dougherty on some cool information and visualization software that he and his colleagues are building for social workers. The only problems with my were: (a) I planned to elicit more audience involvement but didn’t do it. It would’ve been easy: at any point I could’ve just paused and had the audience members work in pairs to come up with suggested improvements to any of my graphs. But I forgot to do it. (b) I went on too long. The talk was going so well, I didn’t stop. In retrospect, it would’ve been better to stop earlier. Better for people to leave the table hungry than stuffed. Also, next time I’ll drop the bit about the nuns-in-prison movies. People weren’t getting the connection to the point I was making about presetting the sig
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Introduction: At Picnic Cafe, Broadway at 101 St, 6-7pm today. Should we vote even though it probably won’t make a difference? Why is the question “Are we better off now than four years ago?” not an appeal to selfishness? Are Americans as polarized as we think? Come explore these and other questions about voting in America today. It’s the usual stuff but close-up so lots of opportunity to argue and heckle. No slides or graphs. My plan is to hand out 30-50 index cards, each with a phrase (for example, “Moderation in the pursuit of moderation is no vice” or “Gerrymandering is good for you” or “How to predict elections”), then participants can call out topics and I’ll yap on them (with discussion) till we run out of time. It’ll be weird to talk without graphs. We’ll see how it goes.
Introduction: Here’s some psychology research that’s relevant to yesterday’s discussion on working-class voting. In a paper to appear in the journal Cognitive Science , Andrei Cimpian, Amanda Brandone, and Susan Gelman write: Generic statements (e.g., “Birds lay eggs”) express generalizations about categories. In this paper, we hypothesized that there is a paradoxical asymmetry at the core of generic meaning, such that these sentences have extremely strong implications but require little evidence to be judged true. Four experiments confirmed the hypothesized asymmetry: Participants interpreted novel generics such as “Lorches have purple feathers” as referring to nearly all lorches, but they judged the same novel generics to be true given a wide range of prevalence levels (e.g., even when only 10% or 30% of lorches had purple feathers). A second hypothesis, also confirmed by the results, was that novel generic sentences about dangerous or distinctive properties would be more acceptable than
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Introduction: I haven’t linked to the Baby Name Wizard in awhile. . . . Laura Wattenberg takes a look at the question , “Does a hard-to-pronounce baby name hurt you?” Critical thinking without “debunking”—this is the way to go.
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