andrew_gelman_stats andrew_gelman_stats-2010 andrew_gelman_stats-2010-33 knowledge-graph by maker-knowledge-mining
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Introduction: The official announcement: The Excellence in Statistical Reporting Award for 2010 is presented to Felix Salmon for his body of work, which exemplifies the highest standards of scientific reporting. His insightful use of statistics as a tool to understanding the world of business and economics, areas that are critical in today’s economy, sets a new standard in statistical investigative reporting. Here are some examples: Tiger Woods Nigerian spammers How the government fudges job statistics This one is important to me. The idea is that “statistical reporting” is not just traditional science reporting (journalist talks with scientists and tries to understand the consensus) or science popularization or silly feature stories about the lottery. Salmon is doing investigative reporting using statistical thinking. Also, from a political angle, Salmon’s smart and quantitatively sophisticated work (as well as that of others such as Nate Silver) is an important counterweigh
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3 Here are some examples: Tiger Woods Nigerian spammers How the government fudges job statistics This one is important to me. [sent-3, score-0.473]
4 The idea is that “statistical reporting” is not just traditional science reporting (journalist talks with scientists and tries to understand the consensus) or science popularization or silly feature stories about the lottery. [sent-4, score-1.314]
5 Salmon is doing investigative reporting using statistical thinking. [sent-5, score-0.804]
6 Also, from a political angle, Salmon’s smart and quantitatively sophisticated work (as well as that of others such as Nate Silver) is an important counterweight to the high-tech mystification that surrounds so many topics in economics. [sent-6, score-0.539]
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same-blog 1 0.99999976 33 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-14-Felix Salmon wins the American Statistical Association’s Excellence in Statistical Reporting Award
Introduction: The official announcement: The Excellence in Statistical Reporting Award for 2010 is presented to Felix Salmon for his body of work, which exemplifies the highest standards of scientific reporting. His insightful use of statistics as a tool to understanding the world of business and economics, areas that are critical in today’s economy, sets a new standard in statistical investigative reporting. Here are some examples: Tiger Woods Nigerian spammers How the government fudges job statistics This one is important to me. The idea is that “statistical reporting” is not just traditional science reporting (journalist talks with scientists and tries to understand the consensus) or science popularization or silly feature stories about the lottery. Salmon is doing investigative reporting using statistical thinking. Also, from a political angle, Salmon’s smart and quantitatively sophisticated work (as well as that of others such as Nate Silver) is an important counterweigh
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Introduction: The American Statistical Association is seeking nominations for its annual Excellence in Statistical Reporting Award . The award was created in 2004 to encourage and recognize members of the communications media who have best displayed an informed interest in the science of statistics and its role in public life. The award can be given for a single statistical article or for a body of work. Former winners of the award include: Felix Salmon , financial blogger, 2010; Sharon Begley , Newsweek, 2009; Mark Buchanan, New York Times, 2008; John Berry, Bloomberg News, 2005; and Gina Kolata, New York Times, 2004. If anyone has any suggestions for the 2012 award, feel free to post in the comments or email me.
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Introduction: Following my talk on infovis and statistical graphics at the Empirical Legal Studies conference , Dan Kahan writes: The legal academy, which is making strides toward sensible integration of a variety of empirical methods into its scholarship, is horribly ignorant of the utility of graphic reporting of data, a likely influence of the formative influence that econometric methods has exerted on expectations and habits of mind among legal scholars. Lee Epstein has written a pair of wonderful articles on graphic reporting – 1. Epstein, L., Martin, A. & Boyd, C. On the Effective Communication of the Results of Empirical Studies, Part II. Vand. L. Rev. 60, 798-846 (2007). 2. Epstein, L., Martin, A. & Schneider, M. On the Effective Communication of the Results of Empirical Studies, Part I. Vand. L. Rev. 59, 1811-1871 (2007). – but her efforts haven’t gotten the attention they deserve, and reinforcement, particularly at a venue like CELS is very important. But the main issue there
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Introduction: People keep asking me what I think of Nate’s book, and I keep replying that, as a blogger, I’m spoiled. I’m so used to getting books for free that I wouldn’t go out and buy a book just for the purpose of reviewing it. (That reminds me that I should post reviews of some of those books I’ve received in the mail over the past few months.) I have, however, encountered a couple of reviews of The Signal and the Noise so I thought I’d pass them on to you. Both these reviews are by statisticians / data scientists who work here in NYC in the non-academic “real world” so in that sense they are perhaps better situated than me to review the book (also, they have not collaborated with Nate so they have no conflict of interest). Kaiser Fung gives a positive review : It is in the subtitle—“why so many predictions fail – but some don’t”—that one learns the core philosophy of Silver: he is most concerned with the honest evaluation of the performance of predictive models. The failure to look
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Introduction: I suppose if I can write an article with George Romero, there’s no reason that a noted economist and a legendary humorist can’t collaborate ( link from Felix Salmon). I wonder how they got together in the first place?
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Introduction: The official announcement: The Excellence in Statistical Reporting Award for 2010 is presented to Felix Salmon for his body of work, which exemplifies the highest standards of scientific reporting. His insightful use of statistics as a tool to understanding the world of business and economics, areas that are critical in today’s economy, sets a new standard in statistical investigative reporting. Here are some examples: Tiger Woods Nigerian spammers How the government fudges job statistics This one is important to me. The idea is that “statistical reporting” is not just traditional science reporting (journalist talks with scientists and tries to understand the consensus) or science popularization or silly feature stories about the lottery. Salmon is doing investigative reporting using statistical thinking. Also, from a political angle, Salmon’s smart and quantitatively sophisticated work (as well as that of others such as Nate Silver) is an important counterweigh
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3 0.68342578 1630 andrew gelman stats-2012-12-18-Postdoc positions at Microsoft Research – NYC
Introduction: Sharad Goel sends this in: Microsoft Research NYC [ http://research.microsoft.com/newyork/ ] seeks outstanding applicants for 2-year postdoctoral researcher positions. We welcome applicants with a strong academic record in one of the following areas: * Computational social science: http://research.microsoft.com/cssnyc * Online experimental social science: http://research.microsoft.com/oess_nyc * Algorithmic economics and market design: http://research.microsoft.com/algorithmic-economics/ * Machine learning: http://research.microsoft.com/mlnyc/ We will also consider applicants in other focus areas of the lab, including information retrieval, and behavioral & empirical economics. Additional information about these areas is included below. Please submit all application materials by January 11, 2013. ———- COMPUTATIONAL SOCIAL SCIENCE http://research.microsoft.com/cssnyc With an increasing amount of data on every aspect of our daily activities — from what we buy, to wh
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Introduction: Philosophy professor Gary Gutting writes : Public policy debates often involve appeals to results of work in social sciences like economics and sociology. . . . How much authority should we give to such work in our policy decisions? . . . The core natural sciences (e.g., physics, chemistry, biology) are so well established that we readily accept their best-supported conclusions as definitive. . . . But how reliable is even the best work on the effects of teaching? How, for example, does it compare with the best work by biochemists on the effects of light on plant growth? Since humans are much more complex than plants and biochemists have far more refined techniques for studying plants, we may well expect the biochemical work to be far more reliable. . . . While the physical sciences produce many detailed and precise predictions, the social sciences do not. OK, fine. But then comes the punchline: Given the limited predictive success and the lack of consensus in social scienc
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Introduction: On statisticians and statistical software: Statisticians are particularly sensitive to default settings, which makes sense considering that statistics is, in many ways, a science based on defaults. What is a “statistical method” if not a recommended default analysis, backed up by some combination of theory and experience?
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Introduction: According to the National Weather Service : What is a 100 year flood? A 100 year flood is an event that statistically has a 1% chance of occurring in any given year. A 500 year flood has a .2% chance of occurring and a 1000 year flood has a .1% chance of occurring. The accompanying map shows a part of Tennessee that in May 2010 had 1000-year levels of flooding. At first, it seems hard to believe that a 1000-year flood would have just happened to occur last year. But then, this is just a 1000-year flood for that particular place. I don’t really have a sense of the statistics of these events. How many 100-year, 500-year, and 1000-year flood events have been recorded by the Weather Service, and when have they occurred?
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Introduction: That cute picture is of toddler FDR in a dress, from 1884. Jeanne Maglaty writes : A Ladies’ Home Journal article [or maybe from a different source, according to a commenter] in June 1918 said, “The generally accepted rule is pink for the boys, and blue for the girls. The reason is that pink, being a more decided and stronger color, is more suitable for the boy, while blue, which is more delicate and dainty, is prettier for the girl.” Other sources said blue was flattering for blonds, pink for brunettes; or blue was for blue-eyed babies, pink for brown-eyed babies, according to Paoletti. In 1927, Time magazine printed a chart showing sex-appropriate colors for girls and boys according to leading U.S. stores. In Boston, Filene’s told parents to dress boys in pink. So did Best & Co. in New York City, Halle’s in Cleveland and Marshall Field in Chicago. Today’s color dictate wasn’t established until the 1940s . . . When the women’s liberation movement arrived in the mid-1960s, w
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Introduction: The official announcement: The Excellence in Statistical Reporting Award for 2010 is presented to Felix Salmon for his body of work, which exemplifies the highest standards of scientific reporting. His insightful use of statistics as a tool to understanding the world of business and economics, areas that are critical in today’s economy, sets a new standard in statistical investigative reporting. Here are some examples: Tiger Woods Nigerian spammers How the government fudges job statistics This one is important to me. The idea is that “statistical reporting” is not just traditional science reporting (journalist talks with scientists and tries to understand the consensus) or science popularization or silly feature stories about the lottery. Salmon is doing investigative reporting using statistical thinking. Also, from a political angle, Salmon’s smart and quantitatively sophisticated work (as well as that of others such as Nate Silver) is an important counterweigh
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