andrew_gelman_stats andrew_gelman_stats-2010 andrew_gelman_stats-2010-367 knowledge-graph by maker-knowledge-mining
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Introduction: I found a $5 bill on the street today.
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Introduction: I found a $5 bill on the street today.
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Introduction: Last week, as I walked into Andrew’s office for a meeting, he was formulating some misgivings about applying an ideal-point model to budgetary bills in the U.S. Senate. Andrew didn’t like that the model of a senator’s position was an indifference point rather than at their optimal point, and that the effect of moving away from a position was automatically modeled as increasing in one direction and decreasing in the other. Executive Summary The monotonicity of inverse logit entails that the expected vote for a bill among any fixed collection of senators’ ideal points is monotonically increasing (or decreasing) with the bill’s position, with direction determined by the outcome coding. The Ideal-Point Model The ideal-point model’s easy to write down, but hard to reason about because of all the polarity shifting going on. To recapitulate from Gelman and Hill’s Regression book (p. 317), using the U.S. Senate instead of the Supreme Court, and ignoring the dis
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Introduction: Of beauty, sex, and power: Statistical challenges in estimating small effects . Thurs 5 May at 11am at Roosevelt House, at 47-49 East 65th Street (north side of East 65th street, between Park and Madison Avenues).
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Introduction: Daniel Drezner takes on Bill James.
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Introduction: In the inbox today: From Jimmy. From Kieran. The relevant references are here and, of course, here .
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Introduction: I found a $5 bill on the street today.
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Introduction: Daniel Drezner takes on Bill James.
Introduction: Eric Tassone writes: Probably not blog-worthy/blog-appropriate, but have you heard Bill James discussing the Sandusky & Paterno stuff? I think you discussed once his stance on the Dowd Report, and this seems to be from the same part of his personality—which goes beyond contrarian . . . I have in fact blogged on James ( many times ) and on Paterno , so yes I think this is blogworthy. On the other hand, most readers of this blog probably don’t care about baseball, football, or William James, so I’ll put the rest below the fold. What is legendary baseball statistician Bill James doing, defending the crime-coverups of legendary coach Joe Paterno? As I wrote in my earlier blog on Paterno, it isn’t always easy to do the right thing, and I have no idea if I’d behave any better if I were in such a situation. The characteristics of a good coach do not necessarily provide what it takes to make good decisions off the field. In this sense even more of the blame should go
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Introduction: I was recently rereading and enjoying Bill James’s Historical Baseball Abstract (the second edition, from 2001). But even the Master is not perfect. Here he is, in the context of the all-time 20th-greatest shortstop (in his reckoning): Are athletes special people? In general, no, but occasionally, yes. Johnny Pesky at 75 was trim, youthful, optimistic, and practically exploding with energy. You rarely meet anybody like that who isn’t an ex-athlete–and that makes athletes seem special. [italics in the original] Hey, I’ve met 75-year-olds like that–and none of them are ex-athletes! That’s probably because I don’t know a lot of ex-athletes. But Bill James . . . he knows a lot of athletes. He went to the bathroom with Tim Raines once! The most I can say is that I saw Rickey Henderson steal a couple bases when he was playing against the Orioles once. Cognitive psychologists talk about the base-rate fallacy , which is the mistake of estimating probabilities without accou
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Introduction: From Dan Goldstein : Pretty good, but really the pie chart should be three-dimensional, shown at an angle, and with one or two of the slices popping out. P.S. They seemed to have placed a link for the Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract. That book’s ok, but what I was really recommending were his Abstracts from 1982-1986, which are something else entirely.
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Introduction: This is pretty amazing.
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Introduction: Stan will make a total lifetime profit of $0, so we can’t be sued !
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