andrew_gelman_stats andrew_gelman_stats-2010 andrew_gelman_stats-2010-242 knowledge-graph by maker-knowledge-mining

242 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-29-The Subtle Micro-Effects of Peacekeeping


meta infos for this blog

Source: html

Introduction: Eric Mvukiyehe and Cyrus Samii write : We [Mvukiyehe and Samii] use original survey data and administrative data to test a theory of the micro-level impacts of peacekeeping. The theory proposes that through the creation of local security bubbles and also through direct assistance, peacekeeping deployments contribute to economic and social revitalization that may contribute to more durable peace. This theory guides the design of current United Nations peacekeeping operations, and has been proposed as one of the explanations for peacekeeping’s well-documented association with more durable peace. Our evidence paint a complex picture that deviates substantially from the theory. We do not find evidence for local security bubbles around deployment base areas, and we do not find that deployments were substantial contributors to local social infrastructure. In addition, we find a negative relationship between deployment basing locations and NGO contributions to social infrastructure.


Summary: the most important sentenses genereted by tfidf model

sentIndex sentText sentNum sentScore

1 Eric Mvukiyehe and Cyrus Samii write : We [Mvukiyehe and Samii] use original survey data and administrative data to test a theory of the micro-level impacts of peacekeeping. [sent-1, score-0.256]

2 The theory proposes that through the creation of local security bubbles and also through direct assistance, peacekeeping deployments contribute to economic and social revitalization that may contribute to more durable peace. [sent-2, score-2.229]

3 This theory guides the design of current United Nations peacekeeping operations, and has been proposed as one of the explanations for peacekeeping’s well-documented association with more durable peace. [sent-3, score-1.002]

4 Our evidence paint a complex picture that deviates substantially from the theory. [sent-4, score-0.276]

5 We do not find evidence for local security bubbles around deployment base areas, and we do not find that deployments were substantial contributors to local social infrastructure. [sent-5, score-1.785]

6 In addition, we find a negative relationship between deployment basing locations and NGO contributions to social infrastructure. [sent-6, score-0.55]

7 Nonetheless, we find that deployments do seem to stimulate local markets, leading to better employment possibilities and substantially higher incomes. [sent-7, score-0.956]

8 The result is something of a puzzle , suggesting that more work needs to be done on other types of direct assistance by peacekeeping contingents–e. [sent-8, score-0.881]

9 the impact of mission procurement and routine spending by those associated with the mission. [sent-10, score-0.146]

10 Also, the findings with respect to NGO activities suggest that this is an important factor that past case studies and cross-national studies have not taken into account sufficiently. [sent-11, score-0.202]

11 (I put in the boldface and the paragraph breaks to add some emphasis. [sent-12, score-0.161]

12 I’m sure the article will be even better once they’ve presented their data and model in an accessible form. [sent-15, score-0.065]


similar blogs computed by tfidf model

tfidf for this blog:

wordName wordTfidf (topN-words)

[('peacekeeping', 0.503), ('deployments', 0.332), ('mvukiyehe', 0.201), ('bubbles', 0.201), ('deployment', 0.201), ('durable', 0.201), ('local', 0.191), ('ngo', 0.182), ('samii', 0.182), ('assistance', 0.17), ('substantially', 0.127), ('contribute', 0.126), ('security', 0.124), ('theory', 0.102), ('find', 0.097), ('boldface', 0.091), ('basing', 0.091), ('social', 0.086), ('direct', 0.085), ('paint', 0.085), ('guides', 0.081), ('contributors', 0.081), ('mission', 0.081), ('impacts', 0.079), ('cyrus', 0.079), ('stimulate', 0.079), ('nations', 0.078), ('creation', 0.076), ('proposes', 0.076), ('administrative', 0.075), ('locations', 0.075), ('operations', 0.072), ('breaks', 0.07), ('studies', 0.069), ('nonetheless', 0.067), ('puzzle', 0.066), ('routine', 0.065), ('possibilities', 0.065), ('accessible', 0.065), ('employment', 0.065), ('evidence', 0.064), ('activities', 0.064), ('substantial', 0.062), ('meantime', 0.062), ('markets', 0.06), ('explanations', 0.06), ('base', 0.058), ('eric', 0.057), ('suggesting', 0.057), ('proposed', 0.055)]

similar blogs list:

simIndex simValue blogId blogTitle

same-blog 1 0.99999994 242 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-29-The Subtle Micro-Effects of Peacekeeping

Introduction: Eric Mvukiyehe and Cyrus Samii write : We [Mvukiyehe and Samii] use original survey data and administrative data to test a theory of the micro-level impacts of peacekeeping. The theory proposes that through the creation of local security bubbles and also through direct assistance, peacekeeping deployments contribute to economic and social revitalization that may contribute to more durable peace. This theory guides the design of current United Nations peacekeeping operations, and has been proposed as one of the explanations for peacekeeping’s well-documented association with more durable peace. Our evidence paint a complex picture that deviates substantially from the theory. We do not find evidence for local security bubbles around deployment base areas, and we do not find that deployments were substantial contributors to local social infrastructure. In addition, we find a negative relationship between deployment basing locations and NGO contributions to social infrastructure.

2 0.10906684 177 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-02-Reintegrating rebels into civilian life: Quasi-experimental evidence from Burundi

Introduction: Michael Gilligan, Eric Mvukiyehe, and Cyrus Samii write : We [Gilligan, Mvukiyehe, and Samii] use original survey data, collected in Burundi in the summer of 2007, to show that a World Bank ex-combatant reintegration program implemented after Burundi’s civil war caused significant economic reintegration for its beneficiaries but that this economic reintegration did not translate into greater political and social reintegration. Previous studies of reintegration programs have found them to be ineffective, but these studies have suffered from selection bias: only ex-combatants who self selected into those programs were studied. We avoid such bias with a quasi-experimental research design made possible by an exogenous bureaucratic failure in the implementation of program. One of the World Bank’s implementing partners delayed implementation by almost a year due to an unforeseen contract dispute. As a result, roughly a third of ex-combatants had their program benefits withheld for reas

3 0.089216836 406 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-10-Translating into Votes: The Electoral Impact of Spanish-Language Ballots

Introduction: Dan Hopkins sends along this article : [Hopkins] uses regression discontinuity design to estimate the turnout and election impacts of Spanish-language assistance provided under Section 203 of the Voting Rights Act. Analyses of two different data sets – the Latino National Survey and California 1998 primary election returns – show that Spanish-language assistance increased turnout for citizens who speak little English. The California results also demonstrate that election procedures an influence outcomes, as support for ending bilingual education dropped markedly in heavily Spanish-speaking neighborhoods with Spanish-language assistance. The California analyses find hints of backlash among non-Hispanic white precincts, but not with the same size or certainty. Small changes in election procedures can influence who votes as well as what wins. Beyond the direct relevance of these results, I find this paper interesting as an example of research that is fundamentally quantitative. Th

4 0.083570719 645 andrew gelman stats-2011-04-04-Do you have any idea what you’re talking about?

Introduction: We all have opinions about the federal budget and how it should be spent. Infrequently, those opinions are informed by some knowledge about where the money actually goes. It turns out that most people don’t have a clue. What about you? Here, take this poll/quiz and then compare your answers to (1) what other people said, in a CNN poll that asked about these same items and (2) compare your answers to the real answers. Quiz is below the fold. The questions below are from a CNN poll. ======== Think about all the money that the federal government spent last year. I’m going to name a few federal programs and for each one, I’d like you to estimate what percentage of the federal government’s budget last year was spent on each of those programs. Medicare — the federal health program for the elderly Medicaid — the federal health program for the poor Social Security Military spending by the Department of Defense Aid to foreign countries for international development

5 0.07421384 508 andrew gelman stats-2011-01-08-More evidence of growing nationalization of congressional elections

Introduction: The other day I posted some evidence that, however things used to be, congressional elections are increasingly nationalized, and it’s time to retire Tip O’Neill’s slogan, “all politics is local.” (The discussion started with a remark by O.G. blogger Mickey Kaus; I also explain why I disagree with Jonathan Bernstein’s disagreement with me.) Alan Abramowitz writes in with an analysis of National Election Study from a recent paper of his: Average Correlations of House and Senate Votes with Presidential Job Evaluations by Decade Decade House.Vote Senate.Vote 1972-1980 .31 .28 1982-1990 .39 .42 1992-2000 .43 .50 2002-2008 .51 .57 This indeed seems like strong evidence of nationalization, consistent with other things we’ve seen. I a

6 0.069108009 1156 andrew gelman stats-2012-02-06-Bayesian model-building by pure thought: Some principles and examples

7 0.06353683 359 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-21-Applied Statistics Center miniconference: Statistical sampling in developing countries

8 0.062133644 946 andrew gelman stats-2011-10-07-Analysis of Power Law of Participation

9 0.059800584 945 andrew gelman stats-2011-10-06-W’man < W’pedia, again

10 0.059504177 478 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-20-More on why “all politics is local” is an outdated slogan

11 0.058650669 789 andrew gelman stats-2011-07-07-Descriptive statistics, causal inference, and story time

12 0.057749294 2326 andrew gelman stats-2014-05-08-Discussion with Steven Pinker on research that is attached to data that are so noisy as to be essentially uninformative

13 0.055735998 282 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-17-I can’t escape it

14 0.055366296 1652 andrew gelman stats-2013-01-03-“The Case for Inductive Theory Building”

15 0.054609768 1630 andrew gelman stats-2012-12-18-Postdoc positions at Microsoft Research – NYC

16 0.054366071 2010 andrew gelman stats-2013-09-06-Would today’s captains of industry be happier in a 1950s-style world?

17 0.053563226 2270 andrew gelman stats-2014-03-28-Creating a Lenin-style democracy

18 0.050969321 1388 andrew gelman stats-2012-06-22-Americans think economy isn’t so bad in their city but is crappy nationally and globally

19 0.050923973 1204 andrew gelman stats-2012-03-08-The politics of economic and statistical models

20 0.048857044 1996 andrew gelman stats-2013-08-24-All inference is about generalizing from sample to population


similar blogs computed by lsi model

lsi for this blog:

topicId topicWeight

[(0, 0.104), (1, -0.019), (2, 0.009), (3, -0.023), (4, -0.009), (5, -0.003), (6, -0.027), (7, -0.004), (8, 0.006), (9, 0.022), (10, -0.014), (11, -0.024), (12, -0.019), (13, -0.005), (14, -0.023), (15, 0.019), (16, 0.048), (17, 0.001), (18, 0.0), (19, -0.01), (20, 0.007), (21, -0.005), (22, -0.014), (23, 0.024), (24, -0.004), (25, -0.006), (26, 0.039), (27, -0.008), (28, 0.023), (29, 0.016), (30, -0.001), (31, -0.008), (32, 0.007), (33, -0.017), (34, 0.01), (35, -0.002), (36, -0.015), (37, 0.015), (38, 0.039), (39, -0.004), (40, -0.0), (41, 0.005), (42, -0.001), (43, 0.007), (44, 0.003), (45, -0.004), (46, -0.002), (47, -0.02), (48, 0.019), (49, 0.01)]

similar blogs list:

simIndex simValue blogId blogTitle

same-blog 1 0.94809562 242 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-29-The Subtle Micro-Effects of Peacekeeping

Introduction: Eric Mvukiyehe and Cyrus Samii write : We [Mvukiyehe and Samii] use original survey data and administrative data to test a theory of the micro-level impacts of peacekeeping. The theory proposes that through the creation of local security bubbles and also through direct assistance, peacekeeping deployments contribute to economic and social revitalization that may contribute to more durable peace. This theory guides the design of current United Nations peacekeeping operations, and has been proposed as one of the explanations for peacekeeping’s well-documented association with more durable peace. Our evidence paint a complex picture that deviates substantially from the theory. We do not find evidence for local security bubbles around deployment base areas, and we do not find that deployments were substantial contributors to local social infrastructure. In addition, we find a negative relationship between deployment basing locations and NGO contributions to social infrastructure.

2 0.75390643 1861 andrew gelman stats-2013-05-17-Where do theories come from?

Introduction: Lee Sechrest sends along this article by Brian Haig and writes that it “presents what seems to me a useful perspective on much of what scientists/statisticians do and how science works, at least in the fields in which I work.” Here’s Haig’s abstract: A broad theory of scientific method is sketched that has particular relevance for the behavioral sciences. This theory of method assembles a complex of specific strategies and methods that are used in the detection of empirical phenomena and the subsequent construction of explanatory theories. A characterization of the nature of phenomena is given, and the process of their detection is briefly described in terms of a multistage model of data analysis. The construction of explanatory theories is shown to involve their generation through abductive, or explanatory, reasoning, their development through analogical modeling, and their fuller appraisal in terms of judgments of the best of competing explanations. The nature and limits of

3 0.74994701 32 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-14-Causal inference in economics

Introduction: Aaron Edlin points me to this issue of the Journal of Economic Perspectives that focuses on statistical methods for causal inference in economics. (Michael Bishop’s page provides some links .) To quickly summarize my reactions to Angrist and Pischke’s book: I pretty much agree with them that the potential-outcomes or natural-experiment approach is the most useful way to think about causality in economics and related fields. My main amendments to Angrist and Pischke would be to recognize that: 1. Modeling is important, especially modeling of interactions . It’s unfortunate to see a debate between experimentalists and modelers. Some experimenters (not Angrist and Pischke) make the mistake of avoiding models: Once they have their experimental data, they check their brains at the door and do nothing but simple differences, not realizing how much more can be learned. Conversely, some modelers are unduly dismissive of experiments and formal observational studies, forgetting t

4 0.74208671 60 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-30-What Auteur Theory and Freshwater Economics have in common

Introduction: Mark Palko writes : We’ll define freshwater economics as the theory that economic behavior (and perhaps most non-economic behavior) can be explained using the concepts of rational actors and efficient markets and auteur theory as the idea that most films (particularly great films) represent the artistic vision of a single author (almost always the director) and the best way to approach one of those films is through the body of work of its author. Both of these definitions are oversimplified and a bit unfair but they will get the discussion started. . . . Compared to their nearest neighbors, film criticism and economics (particularly macroeconomics) are both difficult, messy fields. Films are collaborative efforts where individual contributions defy attribution and creative decisions often can’t be distinguished from accidents of filming. Worse yet, most films are the product of large corporations which means that dozens of VPs and executives might have played a role (sometimes

5 0.73520184 177 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-02-Reintegrating rebels into civilian life: Quasi-experimental evidence from Burundi

Introduction: Michael Gilligan, Eric Mvukiyehe, and Cyrus Samii write : We [Gilligan, Mvukiyehe, and Samii] use original survey data, collected in Burundi in the summer of 2007, to show that a World Bank ex-combatant reintegration program implemented after Burundi’s civil war caused significant economic reintegration for its beneficiaries but that this economic reintegration did not translate into greater political and social reintegration. Previous studies of reintegration programs have found them to be ineffective, but these studies have suffered from selection bias: only ex-combatants who self selected into those programs were studied. We avoid such bias with a quasi-experimental research design made possible by an exogenous bureaucratic failure in the implementation of program. One of the World Bank’s implementing partners delayed implementation by almost a year due to an unforeseen contract dispute. As a result, roughly a third of ex-combatants had their program benefits withheld for reas

6 0.72000116 1449 andrew gelman stats-2012-08-08-Gregor Mendel’s suspicious data

7 0.70893747 116 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-29-How to grab power in a democracy – in 5 easy non-violent steps

8 0.70845187 67 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-03-More on that Dartmouth health care study

9 0.70613283 789 andrew gelman stats-2011-07-07-Descriptive statistics, causal inference, and story time

10 0.70557773 2050 andrew gelman stats-2013-10-04-Discussion with Dan Kahan on political polarization, partisan information processing. And, more generally, the role of theory in empirical social science

11 0.69192153 1696 andrew gelman stats-2013-01-29-The latest in economics exceptionalism

12 0.68987 333 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-10-Psychiatric drugs and the reduction in crime

13 0.68950123 864 andrew gelman stats-2011-08-21-Going viral — not!

14 0.68943244 358 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-20-When Kerry Met Sally: Politics and Perceptions in the Demand for Movies

15 0.68626362 989 andrew gelman stats-2011-11-03-This post does not mention Wegman

16 0.68575406 1942 andrew gelman stats-2013-07-17-“Stop and frisk” statistics

17 0.68404263 98 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-19-Further thoughts on happiness and life satisfaction research

18 0.68293619 2307 andrew gelman stats-2014-04-27-Big Data…Big Deal? Maybe, if Used with Caution.

19 0.68242294 845 andrew gelman stats-2011-08-08-How adoption speed affects the abandonment of cultural tastes

20 0.68224484 1952 andrew gelman stats-2013-07-23-Christakis response to my comment on his comments on social science (or just skip to the P.P.P.S. at the end)


similar blogs computed by lda model

lda for this blog:

topicId topicWeight

[(2, 0.03), (16, 0.075), (21, 0.018), (24, 0.107), (30, 0.01), (31, 0.252), (34, 0.01), (42, 0.027), (59, 0.025), (63, 0.018), (64, 0.015), (75, 0.015), (82, 0.01), (86, 0.024), (89, 0.017), (99, 0.204)]

similar blogs list:

simIndex simValue blogId blogTitle

1 0.9467504 1778 andrew gelman stats-2013-03-27-My talk at the University of Michigan today 4pm

Introduction: Causality and Statistical Learning Andrew Gelman, Statistics and Political Science, Columbia University Wed 27 Mar, 4pm, Betty Ford Auditorium, Ford School of Public Policy Causal inference is central to the social and biomedical sciences. There are unresolved debates about the meaning of causality and the methods that should be used to measure it. As a statistician, I am trained to say that randomized experiments are a gold standard, yet I have spent almost all my applied career analyzing observational data. In this talk we shall consider various approaches to causal reasoning from the perspective of an applied statistician who recognizes the importance of causal identification yet must learn from available information. Two relevant papers are here and here .

2 0.88768363 2192 andrew gelman stats-2014-01-30-History is too important to be left to the history professors, Part 2

Introduction: Completely non-gay historian Niall Ferguson, a man who we can be sure would never be caught at a ballet or a poetry reading, informs us that the British decision to enter the first world war on the side of France and Belgium was “the biggest error in modern history.” Ummm, here are a few bigger errors: The German decision to invade Russia in 1941. The Japanese decision to attack America in 1941. Oh yeah , the German decision to invade Belgium in 1914. The Russian decision to invade Afghanistan in 1981 doesn’t look like such a great decision either. And it wasn’t so smart for Saddam Hussein to invade Kuwait, but maybe the countries involved were too small for this to count as “the biggest error in modern history.” It’s striking that, in considering the biggest error in modern history, Ferguson omits all these notorious acts of aggression (bombing Pearl Harbor, leading to the destruction of much of your country, that was pretty bad, huh?), and decides that the worst

3 0.87497163 1127 andrew gelman stats-2012-01-18-The Fixie Bike Index

Introduction: Where are the fixed-gear bike riders? Rohin Dhar explains : At Priceonomics, in order to build our bicycle price guide, we measure what kind of used bikes people are trying to sell and the quantity sold in any city. By mining our database of 1.3 million bicycle listings, we can tell what are the largest markets for used bicycles, how the prices vary by region, and where people who prize fixed gear bikes live. Fixies (fixed gear bikes) are considered to be a strong indicator of hipsterness. For those unfamiliar, a fixed gear bike requires riding in a single gear and the only way to stop the bike is to pedal backwards to help skid the bike to a halt. You can’t “coast” on a fixie; when you are biking downhill, your pedals will keep moving so you better keep pedaling too. Because of the minimalism of this fixed gear system, the bikes tend to be aesthetically pleasing but somewhat challenging to ride. . . . In short, fixed gear bikes = hipsters, and New York boroug

same-blog 4 0.85870075 242 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-29-The Subtle Micro-Effects of Peacekeeping

Introduction: Eric Mvukiyehe and Cyrus Samii write : We [Mvukiyehe and Samii] use original survey data and administrative data to test a theory of the micro-level impacts of peacekeeping. The theory proposes that through the creation of local security bubbles and also through direct assistance, peacekeeping deployments contribute to economic and social revitalization that may contribute to more durable peace. This theory guides the design of current United Nations peacekeeping operations, and has been proposed as one of the explanations for peacekeeping’s well-documented association with more durable peace. Our evidence paint a complex picture that deviates substantially from the theory. We do not find evidence for local security bubbles around deployment base areas, and we do not find that deployments were substantial contributors to local social infrastructure. In addition, we find a negative relationship between deployment basing locations and NGO contributions to social infrastructure.

5 0.84953558 992 andrew gelman stats-2011-11-05-Deadwood in the math curriculum

Introduction: Mark Palko asks : What are the worst examples of curriculum dead wood? Here’s the background: One of the first things that hit me [Palko] when I started teaching high school math was how much material there was to cover. . . . The most annoying part, though, was the number of topics that could easily have been cut, thus giving the students the time to master the important skills and concepts. The example that really stuck with me was synthetic division, a more concise but less intuitive way of performing polynomial long division. Both of these topics are pretty much useless in daily life but polynomial long division does, at least, give the student some insight into the relationship between polynomials and familiar base-ten numbers. Synthetic division has no such value; it’s just a faster but less interesting way of doing something you’ll never have to do. I started asking hardcore math people — mathematicians, statisticians, physicists, rocket scientists — if they.’d ever u

6 0.83774537 356 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-20-Ranking on crime rankings

7 0.83250976 1391 andrew gelman stats-2012-06-25-A question about the Tiger Mom: what if she’d had boys instead of girls?

8 0.8324495 1863 andrew gelman stats-2013-05-19-Prose is paragraphs, prose is sentences

9 0.83241355 386 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-01-Classic probability mistake, this time in the (virtual) pages of the New York Times

10 0.8286494 510 andrew gelman stats-2011-01-10-I guess they noticed that if you take the first word on every seventeenth page, it spells out “Death to the Shah”

11 0.81097186 682 andrew gelman stats-2011-04-27-“The ultimate left-wing novel”

12 0.80601704 2207 andrew gelman stats-2014-02-11-My talks in Bristol this Wed and London this Thurs

13 0.79436386 925 andrew gelman stats-2011-09-26-Ethnicity and Population Structure in Personal Naming Networks

14 0.78931004 1995 andrew gelman stats-2013-08-23-“I mean, what exact buttons do I have to hit?”

15 0.78508234 950 andrew gelman stats-2011-10-10-“Causality is almost always in doubt”

16 0.78313577 599 andrew gelman stats-2011-03-03-Two interesting posts elsewhere on graphics

17 0.78235412 539 andrew gelman stats-2011-01-26-Lies, Damn Lies…that’s pretty much it.

18 0.7782203 1840 andrew gelman stats-2013-05-04-One more thought on Hoover historian Niall Ferguson’s thing about Keynes being gay and marrying a ballerina and talking about poetry

19 0.77821004 1034 andrew gelman stats-2011-11-29-World Class Speakers and Entertainers

20 0.77138859 1673 andrew gelman stats-2013-01-15-My talk last night at the visualization meetup