andrew_gelman_stats andrew_gelman_stats-2010 andrew_gelman_stats-2010-242 knowledge-graph by maker-knowledge-mining
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Introduction: Eric Mvukiyehe and Cyrus Samii write : We [Mvukiyehe and Samii] use original survey data and administrative data to test a theory of the micro-level impacts of peacekeeping. The theory proposes that through the creation of local security bubbles and also through direct assistance, peacekeeping deployments contribute to economic and social revitalization that may contribute to more durable peace. This theory guides the design of current United Nations peacekeeping operations, and has been proposed as one of the explanations for peacekeeping’s well-documented association with more durable peace. Our evidence paint a complex picture that deviates substantially from the theory. We do not find evidence for local security bubbles around deployment base areas, and we do not find that deployments were substantial contributors to local social infrastructure. In addition, we find a negative relationship between deployment basing locations and NGO contributions to social infrastructure.
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1 Eric Mvukiyehe and Cyrus Samii write : We [Mvukiyehe and Samii] use original survey data and administrative data to test a theory of the micro-level impacts of peacekeeping. [sent-1, score-0.256]
2 The theory proposes that through the creation of local security bubbles and also through direct assistance, peacekeeping deployments contribute to economic and social revitalization that may contribute to more durable peace. [sent-2, score-2.229]
3 This theory guides the design of current United Nations peacekeeping operations, and has been proposed as one of the explanations for peacekeeping’s well-documented association with more durable peace. [sent-3, score-1.002]
4 Our evidence paint a complex picture that deviates substantially from the theory. [sent-4, score-0.276]
5 We do not find evidence for local security bubbles around deployment base areas, and we do not find that deployments were substantial contributors to local social infrastructure. [sent-5, score-1.785]
6 In addition, we find a negative relationship between deployment basing locations and NGO contributions to social infrastructure. [sent-6, score-0.55]
7 Nonetheless, we find that deployments do seem to stimulate local markets, leading to better employment possibilities and substantially higher incomes. [sent-7, score-0.956]
8 The result is something of a puzzle , suggesting that more work needs to be done on other types of direct assistance by peacekeeping contingents–e. [sent-8, score-0.881]
9 the impact of mission procurement and routine spending by those associated with the mission. [sent-10, score-0.146]
10 Also, the findings with respect to NGO activities suggest that this is an important factor that past case studies and cross-national studies have not taken into account sufficiently. [sent-11, score-0.202]
11 (I put in the boldface and the paragraph breaks to add some emphasis. [sent-12, score-0.161]
12 I’m sure the article will be even better once they’ve presented their data and model in an accessible form. [sent-15, score-0.065]
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Introduction: Eric Mvukiyehe and Cyrus Samii write : We [Mvukiyehe and Samii] use original survey data and administrative data to test a theory of the micro-level impacts of peacekeeping. The theory proposes that through the creation of local security bubbles and also through direct assistance, peacekeeping deployments contribute to economic and social revitalization that may contribute to more durable peace. This theory guides the design of current United Nations peacekeeping operations, and has been proposed as one of the explanations for peacekeeping’s well-documented association with more durable peace. Our evidence paint a complex picture that deviates substantially from the theory. We do not find evidence for local security bubbles around deployment base areas, and we do not find that deployments were substantial contributors to local social infrastructure. In addition, we find a negative relationship between deployment basing locations and NGO contributions to social infrastructure.
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Introduction: Causality and Statistical Learning Andrew Gelman, Statistics and Political Science, Columbia University Wed 27 Mar, 4pm, Betty Ford Auditorium, Ford School of Public Policy Causal inference is central to the social and biomedical sciences. There are unresolved debates about the meaning of causality and the methods that should be used to measure it. As a statistician, I am trained to say that randomized experiments are a gold standard, yet I have spent almost all my applied career analyzing observational data. In this talk we shall consider various approaches to causal reasoning from the perspective of an applied statistician who recognizes the importance of causal identification yet must learn from available information. Two relevant papers are here and here .
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