andrew_gelman_stats andrew_gelman_stats-2013 andrew_gelman_stats-2013-2125 knowledge-graph by maker-knowledge-mining
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Introduction: Liz Stuart writes: I am writing to solicit ideas for how we might measure a particular type of political environment, relevant to school districts’ likelihood of participating in federal evaluations (funded by the US Department of Education) of education programs. This is part of a larger project investigating external validity and the generalizability of results from randomized trials to target populations that I am doing with Rob Olsen, Steve Bell, and Larry Orr. In this piece of the work we are trying to model the factors that may impact whether a school district is likely to participate in one of these large-scale evaluations. One factor that occurred to us was the political environment in the state, and how likely a school district might be to want to “go along with” and participate in a federal evaluation. (And that, for example, this might depend on the party alignment between the state politics and the federal government.). We were wondering if you or your readers might
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1 Liz Stuart writes: I am writing to solicit ideas for how we might measure a particular type of political environment, relevant to school districts’ likelihood of participating in federal evaluations (funded by the US Department of Education) of education programs. [sent-1, score-1.654]
2 This is part of a larger project investigating external validity and the generalizability of results from randomized trials to target populations that I am doing with Rob Olsen, Steve Bell, and Larry Orr. [sent-2, score-0.961]
3 In this piece of the work we are trying to model the factors that may impact whether a school district is likely to participate in one of these large-scale evaluations. [sent-3, score-1.006]
4 One factor that occurred to us was the political environment in the state, and how likely a school district might be to want to “go along with” and participate in a federal evaluation. [sent-4, score-1.827]
5 (And that, for example, this might depend on the party alignment between the state politics and the federal government. [sent-5, score-1.035]
6 We were wondering if you or your readers might have any suggestions of a parsimonious way to measure this, again as a reflection of their potential likelihood of cooperation with a large-scale federal evaluation. [sent-7, score-1.408]
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same-blog 1 1.0000001 2125 andrew gelman stats-2013-12-05-What predicts whether a school district will participate in a large-scale evaluation?
Introduction: Liz Stuart writes: I am writing to solicit ideas for how we might measure a particular type of political environment, relevant to school districts’ likelihood of participating in federal evaluations (funded by the US Department of Education) of education programs. This is part of a larger project investigating external validity and the generalizability of results from randomized trials to target populations that I am doing with Rob Olsen, Steve Bell, and Larry Orr. In this piece of the work we are trying to model the factors that may impact whether a school district is likely to participate in one of these large-scale evaluations. One factor that occurred to us was the political environment in the state, and how likely a school district might be to want to “go along with” and participate in a federal evaluation. (And that, for example, this might depend on the party alignment between the state politics and the federal government.). We were wondering if you or your readers might
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Introduction: We all have opinions about the federal budget and how it should be spent. Infrequently, those opinions are informed by some knowledge about where the money actually goes. It turns out that most people don’t have a clue. What about you? Here, take this poll/quiz and then compare your answers to (1) what other people said, in a CNN poll that asked about these same items and (2) compare your answers to the real answers. Quiz is below the fold. The questions below are from a CNN poll. ======== Think about all the money that the federal government spent last year. I’m going to name a few federal programs and for each one, I’d like you to estimate what percentage of the federal government’s budget last year was spent on each of those programs. Medicare — the federal health program for the elderly Medicaid — the federal health program for the poor Social Security Military spending by the Department of Defense Aid to foreign countries for international development
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Introduction: A journalist asked me for my thoughts on academics and blogging, in light of the recently announced move of the sister blog to the Washington Post. I responded as follows: John Sides is the leader of the Monkey Cage and in particular was the key person involved in the Washington Post move. But I will give you some general comments based on my own experiences. I started blogging in 2004: Samantha Cook (my postdoc at the time) and I set up the blog so that we could communicate our partially-formed research ideas to each other, in a way that would be open to the world so that (a) we could get input from interested outsiders, and (b) we could publicize our work. We decided to post daily (or approximately thus). At the time, I figured that if there was ever a time that we ran out of material, I could post summaries of my old research papers. The blog quickly became a place for us to give our various thoughts on statistical modeling, causal inference, and social science.
Introduction: Elsewhere: 1. They asked me to write about my “favorite election- or campaign-related movie, novel, or TV show” (Salon) 2. The shopping period is over; the time for buying has begun (NYT) 3. If anybody’s gonna be criticizing my tax plan, I want it to be this guy (Monkey Cage) 4. The 4 key qualifications to be a great president; unfortunately George W. Bush satisfies all four, and Ronald Reagan doesn’t match any of them (Monkey Cage) 5. The politics of eyeliner (Monkey Cage)
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Introduction: This one’s probably the most important: Republicans on track to retain control of House in 2014 And I like this one for the headline: Impact factor 911 is a joke Here are the others: Press releases make for fishy statistics Why is the Motley Fool hyping Netflix? Our health-care system is like Coca Cola Obama takes big bucks from telecoms, ramps up national security state I have mixed feelings about the move of the Monkey Cage blog to the Washington Post. I’ve been told we get many more readers, but the the comments have declined in number and in quality. It used to be that posting at the Monkey Cage felt like “blogging”: I’d post something there and look at the comments. It was a political science community with many participants from outside the field. Posting at the new blog is more like writing for the newspaper: it’s a broadcast without real feedback. This all makes me realize how much I appreciate the commenters here. Just as I blog for free, out
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Introduction: Liz Stuart writes: I am writing to solicit ideas for how we might measure a particular type of political environment, relevant to school districts’ likelihood of participating in federal evaluations (funded by the US Department of Education) of education programs. This is part of a larger project investigating external validity and the generalizability of results from randomized trials to target populations that I am doing with Rob Olsen, Steve Bell, and Larry Orr. In this piece of the work we are trying to model the factors that may impact whether a school district is likely to participate in one of these large-scale evaluations. One factor that occurred to us was the political environment in the state, and how likely a school district might be to want to “go along with” and participate in a federal evaluation. (And that, for example, this might depend on the party alignment between the state politics and the federal government.). We were wondering if you or your readers might
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Introduction: In a rare Christmas-themed post here, I pass along this note from Alexander Berger at GiveWell : We just published a blog post following up on the *other* famous piece of evidence for deworming, the Miguel and Kremer experiment from Kenya. They shared data and code from their working paper (!) follow-up finding that deworming increases incomes ten years later, and we came out of the re-analysis feeling more confident in, though not wholly convinced by, the results. We’ve also just released our new list of top charities for giving season this year, which I think might be a good fit for your audience. We wrote a blog post explaining our choices , and have also published extensive reviews of the top charities and the interventions on which they work. Perhaps the most interesting change since last year is the addition of GiveDirectly in the #2 spot; they do direct unconditional cash transfers to people living on less than a dollar a day in Kenya. We think it’s a remarkable mode
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Introduction: Liz Stuart writes: I am writing to solicit ideas for how we might measure a particular type of political environment, relevant to school districts’ likelihood of participating in federal evaluations (funded by the US Department of Education) of education programs. This is part of a larger project investigating external validity and the generalizability of results from randomized trials to target populations that I am doing with Rob Olsen, Steve Bell, and Larry Orr. In this piece of the work we are trying to model the factors that may impact whether a school district is likely to participate in one of these large-scale evaluations. One factor that occurred to us was the political environment in the state, and how likely a school district might be to want to “go along with” and participate in a federal evaluation. (And that, for example, this might depend on the party alignment between the state politics and the federal government.). We were wondering if you or your readers might
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