andrew_gelman_stats andrew_gelman_stats-2013 andrew_gelman_stats-2013-2060 knowledge-graph by maker-knowledge-mining
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Introduction: “Where academia meets public life” : The Changing Face of Violence Joel F. Harrington A debate has kicked off among scholars on whether we have become inherently more peaceful. A more important question is whether we actually understand the many forms violence takes. The Professor as Digital Native Interview with Mary Beard Why Central Bank Transparency May Be Overrated Brigitte Granville Be it ever so brilliant, communication in monetary policy is no panacea in today’s world of slow growth, high debt, and fiscal policy uncertainty. When Does Digital Activism Pack a Punch? Philip N. Howard A new project is collecting data to offer insights from digital campaigns around the world. Being ‘Different’ in a World of High Achievers Allison Stevens A Columbia professor writes about the challenges of raising a Down syndrome child – and the mixed reactions among her colleagues. A Grand Illusion Euny Hong How the top French schools remain incubators for the eli
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1 “Where academia meets public life” : The Changing Face of Violence Joel F. [sent-1, score-0.1]
2 Harrington A debate has kicked off among scholars on whether we have become inherently more peaceful. [sent-2, score-0.402]
3 A more important question is whether we actually understand the many forms violence takes. [sent-3, score-0.197]
4 The Professor as Digital Native Interview with Mary Beard Why Central Bank Transparency May Be Overrated Brigitte Granville Be it ever so brilliant, communication in monetary policy is no panacea in today’s world of slow growth, high debt, and fiscal policy uncertainty. [sent-4, score-0.551]
5 Howard A new project is collecting data to offer insights from digital campaigns around the world. [sent-7, score-0.527]
6 Being ‘Different’ in a World of High Achievers Allison Stevens A Columbia professor writes about the challenges of raising a Down syndrome child – and the mixed reactions among her colleagues. [sent-8, score-0.314]
7 A Grand Illusion Euny Hong How the top French schools remain incubators for the elites despite the nation’s ostensibly egalitarian politics. [sent-9, score-0.352]
8 Merkel’s Victory, Or How All Politics Is Local Kai Arzheimer An unspoken consensus across Europe to avoid upsetting anything ahead of the German election did just that: Europe hardly featured in the campaign. [sent-10, score-0.239]
9 Kindred Winecoff The United States not only continues to dominate global finance but has become even more central since the 2008 crisis. [sent-14, score-0.421]
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same-blog 1 0.99999988 2060 andrew gelman stats-2013-10-13-New issue of Symposium magazine
Introduction: “Where academia meets public life” : The Changing Face of Violence Joel F. Harrington A debate has kicked off among scholars on whether we have become inherently more peaceful. A more important question is whether we actually understand the many forms violence takes. The Professor as Digital Native Interview with Mary Beard Why Central Bank Transparency May Be Overrated Brigitte Granville Be it ever so brilliant, communication in monetary policy is no panacea in today’s world of slow growth, high debt, and fiscal policy uncertainty. When Does Digital Activism Pack a Punch? Philip N. Howard A new project is collecting data to offer insights from digital campaigns around the world. Being ‘Different’ in a World of High Achievers Allison Stevens A Columbia professor writes about the challenges of raising a Down syndrome child – and the mixed reactions among her colleagues. A Grand Illusion Euny Hong How the top French schools remain incubators for the eli
2 0.16147456 1969 andrew gelman stats-2013-08-05-New issue of Symposium magazine
Introduction: Symposium magazine (“Where Academia Meets Public Life”) has some fun stuff this month: Learning to Read All Over Again Lutz Koepnick What produces better students – reading in print or reading on-line? The answer is both. The Elusive Quest for Research Innovation Claude S. Fischer Much of what is considered “new research” has actually been around for a while. But that does not mean it lacks value. Science Journalism and the Art of Expressing Uncertainty Andrew Gelman It is all too easy for unsupported claims to get published in scientific publications. How can journalists address this? A Scientist Goes Rogue Euny Hong Can social media and crowdfunding sustain independent researchers? Still Waiting for Change Sylvia A. Allegretto Economists and policymakers alike are ignoring a huge class of workers whose wages have been effectively frozen for decades. One Professor’s Spirited Enterprise Bob Benenson A burgeoning distilling program has successfully
Introduction: Mike Spagat sends in an interesting explanation for the noted problems with conflict mortality studies (a topic we’ve discussed on occasion on this blog). Spagat writes: This analysis is based on the fact that conflict violence does not spread out at all uniformly across a map but, rather, tends to concentrate in a few areas. This means that small, headline-grabbing violence surveys are extremely unreliable. There is a second point, based on the work of David Hemenway which you’ve also cited on your blog. Even within exceptionally violent environments most households will still not have a violent death. So a very small false positive rate in a household survey will cause substantial upward bias in violence estimates.
4 0.076261036 1174 andrew gelman stats-2012-02-18-Not as ugly as you look
Introduction: Kaiser asks the interesting question: How do you measure what restaurants are “overrated”? You can’t just ask people, right? There’s some sort of social element here, that “overrated” implies that someone’s out there doing the rating.
5 0.074103758 1833 andrew gelman stats-2013-04-30-“Tragedy of the science-communication commons”
Introduction: I’ve earlier written that science is science communication —that is, the act of communicating scientific ideas and findings to ourselves and others is itself a central part of science. My point was to push against a conventional separation between the act of science and the act of communication, the idea that science is done by scientists and communication is done by communicators. It’s a rare bit of science that does not include communication as part of it. As a scientist and science communicator myself, I’m particularly sensitive to devaluing of communication. (For example, Bayesian Data Analysis is full of original research that was done in order to communicate; or, to put it another way, we often think we understand a scientific idea, but once we try to communicate it, we recognize gaps in our understanding that motivate further research.) I once saw the following on one of those inspirational-sayings-for-every-day desk calendars: “To have ideas is to gather flowers. To thin
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same-blog 1 0.97610301 2060 andrew gelman stats-2013-10-13-New issue of Symposium magazine
Introduction: “Where academia meets public life” : The Changing Face of Violence Joel F. Harrington A debate has kicked off among scholars on whether we have become inherently more peaceful. A more important question is whether we actually understand the many forms violence takes. The Professor as Digital Native Interview with Mary Beard Why Central Bank Transparency May Be Overrated Brigitte Granville Be it ever so brilliant, communication in monetary policy is no panacea in today’s world of slow growth, high debt, and fiscal policy uncertainty. When Does Digital Activism Pack a Punch? Philip N. Howard A new project is collecting data to offer insights from digital campaigns around the world. Being ‘Different’ in a World of High Achievers Allison Stevens A Columbia professor writes about the challenges of raising a Down syndrome child – and the mixed reactions among her colleagues. A Grand Illusion Euny Hong How the top French schools remain incubators for the eli
2 0.70308107 15 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-03-Public Opinion on Health Care Reform
Introduction: My article with Daniel and Yair has recently appeared in The Forum: We use multilevel modeling to estimate support for health-care reform by age, income, and state. Opposition to reform is concentrated among higher-income voters and those over 65. Attitudes do not vary much by state. Unfortunately, our poll data only go to 2004, but we suspect that much can be learned from the relative positions of different demographic groups and different states, despite swings in national opinion. We speculate on the political implications of these findings. The article features some pretty graphs that originally appeared on the blog. It’s in a special issue on health care politics that has several interesting articles, among which I’d like to single out this one by Bob Shapiro and Lawrence Jacobs entitled, “Simulating Representation: Elite Mobilization and Political Power in Health Care Reform”: The public’s core policy preferences have, for some time, favored expanding access to heal
Introduction: Mark Palko points me to a news article by Zack Beauchamp on Jason Richwine, the recent Ph.D. graduate from Harvard’s policy school who left the conservative Heritage Foundation after it came out that his Ph.D. thesis was said to be all about the low IQ’s of Hispanic immigrants. Heritage and others apparently thought this association could discredit their anti-immigration-reform position. Richwine’s mentor Charles Murray was unhappy about the whole episode. Beauchamp’s article is worth reading in that it provides some interesting background, in particular by getting into the details of the Ph.D. review process. In a sense, Beauchamp is too harsh. Flawed Ph.D. theses get published all the time. I’d say that most Ph.D. theses I’ve seen are flawed: usually the plan is to get the papers into shape later, when submitting them to journals. If a student doesn’t go into academia, the thesis typically just sits there and is rarely followed up on. I don’t know the statistics o
4 0.66463208 149 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-16-Demographics: what variable best predicts a financial crisis?
Introduction: A few weeks ago I wrote about the importance of demographics in political trends . Today I’d like to show you how demographics help predict financial crises. Here are a few examples of countries with major crises. The working-age population in Japan peaked in the 1995 census . The 1995 Financial Crisis in Japan The working-age USA population growth slows down to unprecedented levels in 2008 (see figure below) Financial crisis of 2007-2010 . (Also, notice previous dips in 2001, 1991 and 1981, and consider the list of recessions .) China’s working-age population, age 15 to 64, has grown continuously. The labor pool will peak in 2015 and then decline. There are more charts in Demography and Growth report by the Reserve Bank of Australia: Wikipedia surveys the causes of the financial crisis, such as “liquidity shortfall in the United States banking system caused by the overvaluation of assets”. Oh my! Slightly better than the usu
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Introduction: This story reminds me that, when I was in grad school, the state of Massachusetts instituted a seat-belt law which became a big controversy. A local talk show host made it his pet project to shoot down the law, and he succeeded! There was a ballot initiative and the voters repealed the seat belt law. A few years later the law returned (it was somehow tied in with Federal highway funding, I think, the same way they managed to get all the states to up the drinking age to 21), and, oddly enough, nobody seemed to care the second time around. It’s funny how something can be a big political issue one year and nothing the next. I have no deep insights on the matter, but it’s worth remembering that these sorts of panics are nothing new. Recall E.S. Turner’s classic book, Roads to Ruin. I think there’s a research project in here, to understand what gets an issue to be a big deal and how it is that some controversies just fade away.
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same-blog 1 0.91871345 2060 andrew gelman stats-2013-10-13-New issue of Symposium magazine
Introduction: “Where academia meets public life” : The Changing Face of Violence Joel F. Harrington A debate has kicked off among scholars on whether we have become inherently more peaceful. A more important question is whether we actually understand the many forms violence takes. The Professor as Digital Native Interview with Mary Beard Why Central Bank Transparency May Be Overrated Brigitte Granville Be it ever so brilliant, communication in monetary policy is no panacea in today’s world of slow growth, high debt, and fiscal policy uncertainty. When Does Digital Activism Pack a Punch? Philip N. Howard A new project is collecting data to offer insights from digital campaigns around the world. Being ‘Different’ in a World of High Achievers Allison Stevens A Columbia professor writes about the challenges of raising a Down syndrome child – and the mixed reactions among her colleagues. A Grand Illusion Euny Hong How the top French schools remain incubators for the eli
Introduction: Ole Rogeberg writes: Recently read your blogpost on Pinker’s views regarding red and blue states . This might help you see where he’s coming from: The “conflict of visions” thing that Pinker repeats to likely refers to Thomas Sowell’s work in the books “Conflict of Visions” and “Visions of the anointed.” The “Conflict of visions” book is on his top-5 favorite book list and in a Q&A; interview he explains it as follows: Q: What is the Tragic Vision vs. the Utopian Vision? A: They are the different visions of human nature that underlie left-wing and right-wing ideologies. The distinction comes from the economist Thomas Sowell in his wonderful book “A Conflict of Visions.” According to the Tragic Vision, humans are inherently limited in virtue, wisdom, and knowledge, and social arrangements must acknowledge those limits. According to the Utopian vision, these limits are “products†of our social arrangements, and we should strive to overcome them in a better society of the f
3 0.79405117 1969 andrew gelman stats-2013-08-05-New issue of Symposium magazine
Introduction: Symposium magazine (“Where Academia Meets Public Life”) has some fun stuff this month: Learning to Read All Over Again Lutz Koepnick What produces better students – reading in print or reading on-line? The answer is both. The Elusive Quest for Research Innovation Claude S. Fischer Much of what is considered “new research” has actually been around for a while. But that does not mean it lacks value. Science Journalism and the Art of Expressing Uncertainty Andrew Gelman It is all too easy for unsupported claims to get published in scientific publications. How can journalists address this? A Scientist Goes Rogue Euny Hong Can social media and crowdfunding sustain independent researchers? Still Waiting for Change Sylvia A. Allegretto Economists and policymakers alike are ignoring a huge class of workers whose wages have been effectively frozen for decades. One Professor’s Spirited Enterprise Bob Benenson A burgeoning distilling program has successfully
4 0.78283143 1928 andrew gelman stats-2013-07-06-How to think about papers published in low-grade journals?
Introduction: We’ve had lots of lively discussions of fatally-flawed papers that have been published in top, top journals such as the American Economic Review or the Journal of Personality and Social Psychology or the American Sociological Review or the tabloids . And we also know about mistakes that make their way into mid-ranking outlets such as the Journal of Theoretical Biology. But what about results that appear in the lower tier of legitimate journals? I was thinking about this after reading a post by Dan Kahan slamming a paper that recently appeared in PLOS-One. I won’t discuss the paper itself here because that’s not my point. Rather, I had some thoughts regarding Kahan’s annoyance that a paper with fatal errors was published at all. I commented as follows: Read between the lines. The paper originally was released in 2009 and was published in 2013 in PLOS-One, which is one step above appearing on Arxiv. PLOS-One publishes some good things (so does Arxiv) but it’s the place
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Introduction: After noting the increasing political conservatism of people in the poorer states, Richard Florida writes : The current economic crisis only appears to have deepened conservatism’s hold on America’s states. This trend stands in sharp contrast to the Great Depression, when America embraced FDR and the New Deal. Liberalism, which is stronger in richer, better-educated, more-diverse, and, especially, more prosperous places, is shrinking across the board and has fallen behind conservatism even in its biggest strongholds. This obviously poses big challenges for liberals, the Obama administration, and the Democratic Party moving forward. But the much bigger, long-term danger is economic rather than political. This ideological state of affairs advantages the policy preferences of poorer, less innovative states over wealthier, more innovative, and productive ones. American politics is increasingly disconnected from its economic engine. And this deepening political divide has become pe
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