andrew_gelman_stats andrew_gelman_stats-2012 andrew_gelman_stats-2012-1252 knowledge-graph by maker-knowledge-mining

1252 andrew gelman stats-2012-04-08-Jagdish Bhagwati’s definition of feminist sincerity

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Introduction: It’s not what you might think.

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Introduction: It’s not what you might think.

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Introduction: From the sister blog, some reasons why the political reaction might be different this time.

3 0.13934401 357 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-20-Sas and R

Introduction: Xian sends along this link that might be of interest to some of you.

4 0.10574304 2143 andrew gelman stats-2013-12-22-The kluges of today are the textbook solutions of tomorrow.

Introduction: From a response on the Stan help list: Yes, indeed, I think it would be a good idea to reduce the scale on priors of the form U(0,100) or N(0,100^2). This won’t solve all problems but it can’t hurt. If the issue is that the variance parameter can be very small in the estimation, yes, one approach would be to put in a prior that keeps the variance away from 0 (lognormal, gamma, whatever), another approach would be to use the Matt trick. Some mixture of these ideas might help. And, by the way: when you do these things it might feel like an awkward bit of kluging to play around with the model to get it to convert properly. But the kluges of today are the textbook solutions of tomorrow. When it comes to statistical modeling, we’re living in beta-test world; we should appreciate the opportunities this gives us!

5 0.10501848 2125 andrew gelman stats-2013-12-05-What predicts whether a school district will participate in a large-scale evaluation?

Introduction: Liz Stuart writes: I am writing to solicit ideas for how we might measure a particular type of political environment, relevant to school districts’ likelihood of participating in federal evaluations (funded by the US Department of Education) of education programs. This is part of a larger project investigating external validity and the generalizability of results from randomized trials to target populations that I am doing with Rob Olsen, Steve Bell, and Larry Orr. In this piece of the work we are trying to model the factors that may impact whether a school district is likely to participate in one of these large-scale evaluations. One factor that occurred to us was the political environment in the state, and how likely a school district might be to want to “go along with” and participate in a federal evaluation. (And that, for example, this might depend on the party alignment between the state politics and the federal government.). We were wondering if you or your readers might

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same-blog 1 0.99255508 1252 andrew gelman stats-2012-04-08-Jagdish Bhagwati’s definition of feminist sincerity

Introduction: It’s not what you might think.

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Introduction: John Cook writes that he’d like to hear more people talk about “educational monoculture.” I don’t actually know John Cook but I enjoy reading his blog, so I feel like the least I can do is to honor his request. I have to admit that I have a bit of a monocultural temperament myself. I have strong feelings about the right and wrong way to do things, and I don’t have much patience for what seems to me to be the wrong way. As a result, I’ve often disparaged or ignored important statistical developments because some small aspect of the new idea didn’t fit with my thinking. (On the plus side, I think I’ve disparaged or ignored lots more bad ideas thad deserve oblivion.) I’ve always been suspicious of the hedgehog/fox distinction because my impression is that just about everybody likes to think of him or herself as a fox. Being a hedgehog is like being “ideological”; most of us like to think of ourselves as pragmatic foxes. And in any case I think most statisticians are foxes.

3 0.69899708 1717 andrew gelman stats-2013-02-10-Psychology can be improved by adding some economics

Introduction: On this blog I’ve occasionally written about the problems that arise when economists act as amateur psychologists. But the problem can go the other way, too. For example, consider this blog by Berit Brogaard and Kristian Marlow ( link from Abbas Raza). Brogaard and Marlow give several amusing stories about ripoffs (a restaurant that scams customers into buying expensive bottles of wine, a hairdresser that sucks customers into unnecessary treatments, a ghostwriter who takes thousands of dollars in payments and doesn’t do the job, etc.). Then they ask, “How did it happen? Why did you act in this impulsive way? Why didn’t you learn your lesson the first time around? Do you have some kind of brain damage?” They continue with some discussion of the ventromedial prefrontal cortex, the anterior insula, etc etc etc., and then conclude with the following advice: Is there anything we can do to avoid these moments of crazy decision-making? Yes but only by intentionally turning on our

4 0.68644232 889 andrew gelman stats-2011-09-04-The acupuncture paradox

Introduction: The scientific consensus appears to be that, to the extent that acupuncture makes people feel better, it is through relaxing the patient, also the acupuncturist might help in other ways, encouraging the patient to focus on his or her lifestyle. A friend recommended an acupuncturist to me awhile ago and I told her the above line, to which she replied: No, I don’t feel at all relaxed when I go to the acupuncturist. Those needles really hurt! I don’t know anything about this, but one thing I do know is that whenever I discuss the topic with a Chinese friend, they assure me that acupuncture is real. Real real. Not “yeah, it works by calming people” real or “patients respond to a doctor who actually cares about them” real. Real real. The needles, the special places to put the needles, the whole thing. I haven’t had a long discussion on this, but my impression is that Chinese people think of acupuncture as working in the same way that we think of TV’s or cars or refrigerators:

5 0.66132432 1603 andrew gelman stats-2012-12-03-Somebody listened to me!

Introduction: Several months ago, I wrote : One challenge, though, is that uncovering the problem [of scientific fraud] and forcing the retraction is a near-thankless job. That’s one reason I don’t mind if Uri Simonsohn is treated as some sort of hero or superstar for uncovering multiple cases of research fraud. Some people might feel there’s something unseemly about Simonsohn doing this . . . OK, fine, but let’s talk incentives. If retractions are a good thing, and fraudsters and plagiarists are not generally going to retract on their own, then somebody’s going to have to do the hard work of discovering, exposing, and confronting scholarly misconduct. If these discoverers, exposers, and confronters are going to be attacked back by their targets (which would be natural enough) and they’re going to be attacked by the fraudsters’ friends and colleagues (also natural) and even have their work disparaged by outsiders who think they’re going too far, then, hey, they need some incentives in the othe

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