andrew_gelman_stats andrew_gelman_stats-2011 andrew_gelman_stats-2011-969 knowledge-graph by maker-knowledge-mining
Source: html
Introduction: Sally Murray from Giving What We Can writes: We are an organisation that assesses different charitable (/fundable) interventions, to estimate which are the most cost-effective (measured in terms of the improvement of life for people in developing countries gained for every dollar invested). Our research guides and encourages greater donations to the most cost-effective charities we thus identify, and our members have so far pledged a total of $14m to these causes, with many hundreds more relying on our advice in a less formal way. I am specifically researching the cost-effectiveness of political lobbying organisations. We are initially focusing on organisations that lobby for ‘big win’ outcomes such as increased funding of the most cost-effective NTD treatments/ vaccine research, changes to global trade rules (potentially) and more obscure lobbies such as “Keep Antibiotics Working”. We’ve a great deal of respect for your work and the superbly rational way you go about it, and
sentIndex sentText sentNum sentScore
1 Sally Murray from Giving What We Can writes: We are an organisation that assesses different charitable (/fundable) interventions, to estimate which are the most cost-effective (measured in terms of the improvement of life for people in developing countries gained for every dollar invested). [sent-1, score-0.497]
2 Our research guides and encourages greater donations to the most cost-effective charities we thus identify, and our members have so far pledged a total of $14m to these causes, with many hundreds more relying on our advice in a less formal way. [sent-2, score-0.602]
3 I am specifically researching the cost-effectiveness of political lobbying organisations. [sent-3, score-0.323]
4 We are initially focusing on organisations that lobby for ‘big win’ outcomes such as increased funding of the most cost-effective NTD treatments/ vaccine research, changes to global trade rules (potentially) and more obscure lobbies such as “Keep Antibiotics Working”. [sent-4, score-1.268]
5 We’ve a great deal of respect for your work and the superbly rational way you go about it, and wondered if any of your own investigations had produced findings helpful to this line of research? [sent-5, score-0.29]
6 Especially, if it might enlighten either of these questions: 1. [sent-6, score-0.112]
7 What are the expected returns to investment (~chances of various successes) for lobbies of different forms? [sent-7, score-0.519]
8 Are there any highly effective lobbying organisations campaigning for ‘big wins’ of which you think we should be aware? [sent-11, score-0.601]
9 ) We’d be really grateful for any help you can give us in these respect, and are hopeful that your input could really improve the advice we give to donors around the world. [sent-13, score-0.496]
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same-blog 1 0.99999994 969 andrew gelman stats-2011-10-22-Researching the cost-effectiveness of political lobbying organisations
Introduction: Sally Murray from Giving What We Can writes: We are an organisation that assesses different charitable (/fundable) interventions, to estimate which are the most cost-effective (measured in terms of the improvement of life for people in developing countries gained for every dollar invested). Our research guides and encourages greater donations to the most cost-effective charities we thus identify, and our members have so far pledged a total of $14m to these causes, with many hundreds more relying on our advice in a less formal way. I am specifically researching the cost-effectiveness of political lobbying organisations. We are initially focusing on organisations that lobby for ‘big win’ outcomes such as increased funding of the most cost-effective NTD treatments/ vaccine research, changes to global trade rules (potentially) and more obscure lobbies such as “Keep Antibiotics Working”. We’ve a great deal of respect for your work and the superbly rational way you go about it, and
2 0.07931488 1169 andrew gelman stats-2012-02-15-Charles Murray on the new upper class
Introduction: The other day I posted some comments on the voting patterns of rich and poor in the context of Charles Murray’s recent book, “Coming Apart.” My graphs on income and voting are just fine, but I mischaracterized Murray’s statements. So I want to fix that right away. After that I have some thoughts on the book itself. In brief: 1. I was unfair to call him a Tucker Carlson. 2. Murray talks a lot about upper-class liberals. That’s fine but I think his discussion would be improved by also considering upper-class conservatives, given that I see the big culture war occurring within the upper class. 3. Using the case of Joe Paterno as an example, I discuss why Murray’s “preach what you practice” advice could be difficult to carry out in practice. Murray on the top 5% David Frum quoted Murray as writing that the top 5% “tends to be liberal—right? There’s no getting around it. Every way of answering this question produces a yes.” In response, Frum and I both pointed out t
3 0.075810283 1623 andrew gelman stats-2012-12-14-GiveWell charity recommendations
Introduction: In a rare Christmas-themed post here, I pass along this note from Alexander Berger at GiveWell : We just published a blog post following up on the *other* famous piece of evidence for deworming, the Miguel and Kremer experiment from Kenya. They shared data and code from their working paper (!) follow-up finding that deworming increases incomes ten years later, and we came out of the re-analysis feeling more confident in, though not wholly convinced by, the results. We’ve also just released our new list of top charities for giving season this year, which I think might be a good fit for your audience. We wrote a blog post explaining our choices , and have also published extensive reviews of the top charities and the interventions on which they work. Perhaps the most interesting change since last year is the addition of GiveDirectly in the #2 spot; they do direct unconditional cash transfers to people living on less than a dollar a day in Kenya. We think it’s a remarkable mode
4 0.071275741 278 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-15-Advice that might make sense for individuals but is negative-sum overall
Introduction: There’s a lot of free advice out there. As I wrote a couple years ago, it’s usually presented as advice to individuals, but it’s also interesting to consider the possible total effects if the advice is taken. For example, Nassim Taleb has a webpage that includes a bunch of one-line bits of advice (scroll to item 132 on the linked page). Here’s his final piece of advice: If you dislike someone, leave him alone or eliminate him; don’t attack him verbally. I’m a big Taleb fan (search this blog to see), but this seems like classic negative-sum advice. I can see how it can be a good individual strategy to keep your mouth shut, bide your time, and then sandbag your enemies. But it can’t be good if lots of people are doing this. Verbal attacks are great, as long as there’s a chance to respond. I’ve been in environments where people follow Taleb’s advice, saying nothing and occasionally trying to “eliminate” people, and it’s not pretty. I much prefer for people to be open
5 0.067775317 2287 andrew gelman stats-2014-04-09-Advice: positive-sum, zero-sum, or negative-sum
Introduction: There’s a lot of free advice out there. I offer some of it myself! As I’ve written before (see this post from 2008 reacting to this advice from Dan Goldstein for business school students, and this post from 2010 reacting to some general advice from Nassim Taleb), what we see is typically presented as advice to individuals, but it’s also interesting to consider the possible total effects if the advice is taken. It’s time to play the game again. This time it’s advice from sociologist Fabio Rojas for Ph.D. students. I’ll copy his eight points of advice, then, for each, evaluate whether I think it is positive or negative sum: 1. Show up. Even if you feel horrible, show up. No matter what. Period. Unless someone died in your family, show up. 2. Do your job. Grade the papers. Do the lab work. Unless the work is extreme, take it in stride. 3. Be completely realistic about how you will be evaluated from day #1 – acquire a teaching record and a record of publication. Don’t h
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same-blog 1 0.94227654 969 andrew gelman stats-2011-10-22-Researching the cost-effectiveness of political lobbying organisations
Introduction: Sally Murray from Giving What We Can writes: We are an organisation that assesses different charitable (/fundable) interventions, to estimate which are the most cost-effective (measured in terms of the improvement of life for people in developing countries gained for every dollar invested). Our research guides and encourages greater donations to the most cost-effective charities we thus identify, and our members have so far pledged a total of $14m to these causes, with many hundreds more relying on our advice in a less formal way. I am specifically researching the cost-effectiveness of political lobbying organisations. We are initially focusing on organisations that lobby for ‘big win’ outcomes such as increased funding of the most cost-effective NTD treatments/ vaccine research, changes to global trade rules (potentially) and more obscure lobbies such as “Keep Antibiotics Working”. We’ve a great deal of respect for your work and the superbly rational way you go about it, and
Introduction: I came across a document [updated link here ], “Applying structured analogies to the global warming alarm movement,” by Kesten Green and Scott Armstrong. The general approach is appealing to me, but the execution seemed disturbingly flawed. Here’s how they introduce the project: The structured analogies procedure we [Green and Armstrong] used for this study was as follows: 1. Identify possible analogies by searching the literature and by asking experts with different viewpoints to nominate analogies to the target situation: alarm over dangerous manmade global warming. 2. Screen the possible analogies to ensure they meet the stated criteria and that the outcomes are known. 3. Code the relevant characteristics of the analogous situations. 4. Forecast target situation outcomes by using a predetermined mechanical rule to select the outcomes of the analogies. Here is how we posed the question to the experts: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and other organizat
3 0.77988881 2130 andrew gelman stats-2013-12-11-Multilevel marketing as a way of liquidating participants’ social networks
Introduction: Here I’m using the term “liquidate” in the economics sense (conversion of an asset into cash) rather than the Rocky-and-Bullwinkle sense of the word. Here’s the story: Katherine Chen writes : An executive summary version of Ackman and Dineen’s Powerpoint analysis underscores the potential impact of DSOs [direct selling organizations] upon distributors’ networks: Recruiting family members, friends, work and church acquaintances and others in their communities into a rigged game, one that is highly likely to exact financial and emotional harm on those loved and trusted by them, has an impact that cannot be repaired or recompensed with dollars alone. In class discussions over the years, students have made similar conclusions, with some sharing experiences about how they no longer can socialize with relatives and friends who are members of DSOs because of the relentless pressure to buy and join. Others continue to do part-time work as DSO members who were recruited by family.
4 0.76385683 1623 andrew gelman stats-2012-12-14-GiveWell charity recommendations
Introduction: In a rare Christmas-themed post here, I pass along this note from Alexander Berger at GiveWell : We just published a blog post following up on the *other* famous piece of evidence for deworming, the Miguel and Kremer experiment from Kenya. They shared data and code from their working paper (!) follow-up finding that deworming increases incomes ten years later, and we came out of the re-analysis feeling more confident in, though not wholly convinced by, the results. We’ve also just released our new list of top charities for giving season this year, which I think might be a good fit for your audience. We wrote a blog post explaining our choices , and have also published extensive reviews of the top charities and the interventions on which they work. Perhaps the most interesting change since last year is the addition of GiveDirectly in the #2 spot; they do direct unconditional cash transfers to people living on less than a dollar a day in Kenya. We think it’s a remarkable mode
Introduction: Kyle Peyton writes: I’m passing you this recent news article by Ewen Callaway in the hope that you will make a comment about the methodology on your blog. It’s generated some back and forth between the economics and science communities. I [Peyton] am very sceptical of the reductive approach taken by the economics profession generally, and the normative implications this kind of research generates. For example, p. 7 of the working paper states: “…[according to our model] decreasing the diversity of the most diverse country in the sample (Ethopia) by 1 percentage point would raise its income per capita by 21 percent”. Understandably, this piece is couched in assumptions that would take hours to pick apart, but their discussion of the approach belies the uncertainty involved. The main response by the authors in defense is that genetic diversity is a ‘proxy variable’. This is a common assertion, but I find it really infuriating. I happen to drink coffee most days, which correla
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1 0.93543577 1183 andrew gelman stats-2012-02-25-Calibration!
Introduction: I went to this place a few months ago after it was reviewed in the Times and I was not impressed at all. Not that I’m any kind of authority on barbecue, this just makes me aware of variation in assessments. Food criticism is like personality profiling in psychometrics: there is no objective truth to measure; any meaningful evaluation is inherently statistical.
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Introduction: Sally Murray from Giving What We Can writes: We are an organisation that assesses different charitable (/fundable) interventions, to estimate which are the most cost-effective (measured in terms of the improvement of life for people in developing countries gained for every dollar invested). Our research guides and encourages greater donations to the most cost-effective charities we thus identify, and our members have so far pledged a total of $14m to these causes, with many hundreds more relying on our advice in a less formal way. I am specifically researching the cost-effectiveness of political lobbying organisations. We are initially focusing on organisations that lobby for ‘big win’ outcomes such as increased funding of the most cost-effective NTD treatments/ vaccine research, changes to global trade rules (potentially) and more obscure lobbies such as “Keep Antibiotics Working”. We’ve a great deal of respect for your work and the superbly rational way you go about it, and
3 0.82685828 718 andrew gelman stats-2011-05-18-Should kids be able to bring their own lunches to school?
Introduction: I encountered this news article , “Chicago school bans some lunches brought from home”: At Little Village, most students must take the meals served in the cafeteria or go hungry or both. . . . students are not allowed to pack lunches from home. Unless they have a medical excuse, they must eat the food served in the cafeteria. . . . Such discussions over school lunches and healthy eating echo a larger national debate about the role government should play in individual food choices. “This is such a fundamental infringement on parental responsibility,” said J. Justin Wilson, a senior researcher at the Washington-based Center for Consumer Freedom, which is partially funded by the food industry. . . . For many CPS parents, the idea of forbidding home-packed lunches would be unthinkable. . . . If I had read this two years ago, I’d be at one with J. Justin Wilson and the outraged kids and parents. But last year we spent a sabbatical in Paris, where . . . kids aren’t allowed to bring
4 0.82247156 698 andrew gelman stats-2011-05-05-Shocking but not surprising
Introduction: Much-honored playwright Tony Kushner was set to receive one more honor–a degree from John Jay College–but it was suddenly taken away from him on an 11-1 vote of the trustees of the City University of New York. This was the first rejection of an honorary degree nomination since 1961. The news article focuses on one trustee, Jeffrey Wiesenfeld, an investment adviser and onetime political aide, who opposed Kushner’s honorary degree, but to me the relevant point is that the committee as a whole voted 11-1 to ding him. Kusnher said, “I’m sickened,” he added, “that this is happening in New York City. Shocked, really.” I can see why he’s shocked, but perhaps it’s not so surprising that it’s happening in NYC. Recall the famous incident from 1940 in which Bertrand Russell was invited and then uninvited to teach at City College. The problem that time was Russell’s views on free love (as they called it back then). There seems to be a long tradition of city college officials being will
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