andrew_gelman_stats andrew_gelman_stats-2014 andrew_gelman_stats-2014-2259 knowledge-graph by maker-knowledge-mining

2259 andrew gelman stats-2014-03-22-Picking pennies in front of a steamroller: A parable comes to life


meta infos for this blog

Source: html

Introduction: From 2011: Chapter 1 On Sunday we were over on 125 St so I stopped by the Jamaican beef patties place but they were closed. Jesus Taco was next door so I went there instead. What a mistake! I don’t know what Masanao and Yu-Sung could’ve been thinking. Anyway, then I had Jamaican beef patties on the brain so I went by Monday afternoon and asked for 9: 3 spicy beef, 3 mild beef (for the kids), and 3 chicken (not the jerk chicken; Bob got those the other day and they didn’t impress me). I’m about to pay and then a bunch of people come in and start ordering. The woman behind the counter asks if I’m in a hurry, I ask why, she whispers, For the same price you can get a dozen. So I get two more spicy beef and a chicken. She whispers that I shouldn’t tell anyone. I can’t really figure out why I’m getting this special treatment. So I walk out of there with 12 patties. Total cost: $17.25. It’s a good deal: they’re small but not that small. Sure, I ate 6 of them, but I was h


Summary: the most important sentenses genereted by tfidf model

sentIndex sentText sentNum sentScore

1 From 2011: Chapter 1 On Sunday we were over on 125 St so I stopped by the Jamaican beef patties place but they were closed. [sent-1, score-0.908]

2 Jesus Taco was next door so I went there instead. [sent-2, score-0.136]

3 Anyway, then I had Jamaican beef patties on the brain so I went by Monday afternoon and asked for 9: 3 spicy beef, 3 mild beef (for the kids), and 3 chicken (not the jerk chicken; Bob got those the other day and they didn’t impress me). [sent-5, score-1.991]

4 I’m about to pay and then a bunch of people come in and start ordering. [sent-6, score-0.071]

5 The woman behind the counter asks if I’m in a hurry, I ask why, she whispers, For the same price you can get a dozen. [sent-7, score-0.159]

6 Chapter 2 A half hour later, I’m pulling keys out of my pocket lock up my bike and a bunch of change falls out. [sent-16, score-0.433]

7 25, so I had three quarters in my pocket, plus whatever happened to be there already. [sent-18, score-0.235]

8 ) I see all three quarters plus a couple of pennies. [sent-19, score-0.327]

9 The change is on the street, and, as I’m leaning down to pick it up, I notice there’s a parked car, right in front of me, with its engine running. [sent-20, score-0.255]

10 There’s no way the driver can see me if I’m bending down behind the rear wheels. [sent-21, score-0.271]

11 It suddenly comes to me—this is what they mean when they talk about “picking pennies in front of a steamroller. [sent-23, score-0.262]

12 After a brief moment of indecision, I bent down and picked up the quarters. [sent-25, score-0.181]

13 The last time I experienced an economics cliche in real time was a few weeks ago, when I spotted $5 in cash on the street. [sent-29, score-0.226]

14 Update (2014): That particular branch of the Jamaican beef patties place closed a couple years ago, but they have another branch on 125 St that I go to sometimes. [sent-30, score-1.324]

15 A couple months ago I noticed a 20 euro bill on the street and picked it up. [sent-31, score-0.453]


similar blogs computed by tfidf model

tfidf for this blog:

wordName wordTfidf (topN-words)

[('beef', 0.485), ('patties', 0.358), ('jamaican', 0.253), ('spicy', 0.179), ('whispers', 0.179), ('pennies', 0.162), ('branch', 0.162), ('st', 0.162), ('pocket', 0.151), ('quarters', 0.141), ('chicken', 0.134), ('picked', 0.105), ('front', 0.1), ('street', 0.095), ('plus', 0.094), ('couple', 0.092), ('behind', 0.091), ('bending', 0.09), ('rear', 0.09), ('taco', 0.09), ('indecision', 0.084), ('euro', 0.084), ('cliche', 0.081), ('parked', 0.081), ('spotted', 0.081), ('cost', 0.08), ('impress', 0.078), ('hurry', 0.078), ('backs', 0.078), ('ago', 0.077), ('chapter', 0.076), ('bent', 0.076), ('ate', 0.076), ('leaning', 0.074), ('keys', 0.074), ('jesus', 0.072), ('lock', 0.072), ('bunch', 0.071), ('jerk', 0.071), ('went', 0.07), ('masanao', 0.069), ('sunday', 0.069), ('counter', 0.068), ('door', 0.066), ('mild', 0.066), ('place', 0.065), ('afternoon', 0.065), ('bike', 0.065), ('cash', 0.064), ('monday', 0.063)]

similar blogs list:

simIndex simValue blogId blogTitle

same-blog 1 1.0 2259 andrew gelman stats-2014-03-22-Picking pennies in front of a steamroller: A parable comes to life

Introduction: From 2011: Chapter 1 On Sunday we were over on 125 St so I stopped by the Jamaican beef patties place but they were closed. Jesus Taco was next door so I went there instead. What a mistake! I don’t know what Masanao and Yu-Sung could’ve been thinking. Anyway, then I had Jamaican beef patties on the brain so I went by Monday afternoon and asked for 9: 3 spicy beef, 3 mild beef (for the kids), and 3 chicken (not the jerk chicken; Bob got those the other day and they didn’t impress me). I’m about to pay and then a bunch of people come in and start ordering. The woman behind the counter asks if I’m in a hurry, I ask why, she whispers, For the same price you can get a dozen. So I get two more spicy beef and a chicken. She whispers that I shouldn’t tell anyone. I can’t really figure out why I’m getting this special treatment. So I walk out of there with 12 patties. Total cost: $17.25. It’s a good deal: they’re small but not that small. Sure, I ate 6 of them, but I was h

2 0.96069038 512 andrew gelman stats-2011-01-12-Picking pennies in front of a steamroller: A parable comes to life

Introduction: Chapter 1 On Sunday we were over on 125 St so I stopped by the Jamaican beef patties place but they were closed. Jesus Taco was next door so I went there instead. What a mistake! I don’t know what Masanao and Yu-Sung could’ve been thinking. Anyway, then I had Jamaican beef patties on the brain so I went by Monday afternoon and asked for 9: 3 spicy beef, 3 mild beef (for the kids), and 3 chicken (not the jerk chicken; Bob got those the other day and they didn’t impress me). I’m about to pay and then a bunch of people come in and start ordering. The woman behind the counter asks if I’m in a hurry, I ask why, she whispers, For the same price you can get a dozen. So I get two more spicy beef and a chicken. She whispers that I shouldn’t tell anyone. I can’t really figure out why I’m getting this special treatment. So I walk out of there with 12 patties. Total cost: $17.25. It’s a good deal: they’re small but not that small. Sure, I ate 6 of them, but I was hungry. Chapt

3 0.19543134 1727 andrew gelman stats-2013-02-19-Beef with data

Introduction: Louis Mittel writes: Do you know why David Brooks has such a beef with data? My reply: I have no idea, but I’m happy that we’re now considered the establishment that he has to rebel against!

4 0.11328216 1399 andrew gelman stats-2012-06-28-Life imitates blog

Introduction: I just noticed this from a couple years ago!

5 0.10313223 164 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-26-A very short story

Introduction: A few years ago we went to a nearby fried chicken place that the Village Voice had raved about. While we were waiting to place our order, someone from the local Chinese takeout place came in with a delivery, which the employees of the chicken place proceeded to eat. This should’ve been our signal to leave. Instead, we bought some chicken. It was terrible.

6 0.1014192 1729 andrew gelman stats-2013-02-20-My beef with Brooks: the alternative to “good statistics” is not “no statistics,” it’s “bad statistics”

7 0.08148858 367 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-25-In today’s economy, the rich get richer

8 0.077150658 392 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-03-Taleb + 3.5 years

9 0.067932576 349 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-18-Bike shelf

10 0.064020246 1417 andrew gelman stats-2012-07-15-Some decision analysis problems are pretty easy, no?

11 0.061843425 1925 andrew gelman stats-2013-07-04-“Versatile, affordable chicken has grown in popularity”

12 0.05983055 2253 andrew gelman stats-2014-03-17-On deck this week: Revisitings

13 0.059116255 2275 andrew gelman stats-2014-03-31-Just gave a talk

14 0.057807356 970 andrew gelman stats-2011-10-24-Bell Labs

15 0.056536552 1536 andrew gelman stats-2012-10-16-Using economics to reduce bike theft

16 0.054861248 1381 andrew gelman stats-2012-06-16-The Art of Fielding

17 0.053922497 655 andrew gelman stats-2011-04-10-“Versatile, affordable chicken has grown in popularity”

18 0.052920245 1451 andrew gelman stats-2012-08-08-Robert Kosara reviews Ed Tufte’s short course

19 0.052506167 708 andrew gelman stats-2011-05-12-Improvement of 5 MPG: how many more auto deaths?

20 0.051993132 532 andrew gelman stats-2011-01-23-My Wall Street Journal story


similar blogs computed by lsi model

lsi for this blog:

topicId topicWeight

[(0, 0.084), (1, -0.056), (2, -0.009), (3, 0.04), (4, 0.014), (5, 0.014), (6, 0.053), (7, -0.009), (8, 0.021), (9, -0.031), (10, -0.019), (11, 0.004), (12, 0.013), (13, 0.005), (14, -0.003), (15, 0.015), (16, 0.02), (17, -0.01), (18, 0.048), (19, 0.009), (20, -0.049), (21, -0.012), (22, 0.024), (23, 0.015), (24, -0.007), (25, 0.031), (26, -0.083), (27, -0.057), (28, 0.023), (29, 0.002), (30, -0.04), (31, 0.003), (32, -0.02), (33, -0.053), (34, -0.044), (35, -0.06), (36, 0.014), (37, 0.022), (38, 0.03), (39, -0.023), (40, -0.01), (41, 0.032), (42, -0.046), (43, -0.005), (44, -0.077), (45, 0.02), (46, 0.046), (47, -0.071), (48, 0.041), (49, 0.031)]

similar blogs list:

simIndex simValue blogId blogTitle

same-blog 1 0.96257144 2259 andrew gelman stats-2014-03-22-Picking pennies in front of a steamroller: A parable comes to life

Introduction: From 2011: Chapter 1 On Sunday we were over on 125 St so I stopped by the Jamaican beef patties place but they were closed. Jesus Taco was next door so I went there instead. What a mistake! I don’t know what Masanao and Yu-Sung could’ve been thinking. Anyway, then I had Jamaican beef patties on the brain so I went by Monday afternoon and asked for 9: 3 spicy beef, 3 mild beef (for the kids), and 3 chicken (not the jerk chicken; Bob got those the other day and they didn’t impress me). I’m about to pay and then a bunch of people come in and start ordering. The woman behind the counter asks if I’m in a hurry, I ask why, she whispers, For the same price you can get a dozen. So I get two more spicy beef and a chicken. She whispers that I shouldn’t tell anyone. I can’t really figure out why I’m getting this special treatment. So I walk out of there with 12 patties. Total cost: $17.25. It’s a good deal: they’re small but not that small. Sure, I ate 6 of them, but I was h

2 0.94364625 512 andrew gelman stats-2011-01-12-Picking pennies in front of a steamroller: A parable comes to life

Introduction: Chapter 1 On Sunday we were over on 125 St so I stopped by the Jamaican beef patties place but they were closed. Jesus Taco was next door so I went there instead. What a mistake! I don’t know what Masanao and Yu-Sung could’ve been thinking. Anyway, then I had Jamaican beef patties on the brain so I went by Monday afternoon and asked for 9: 3 spicy beef, 3 mild beef (for the kids), and 3 chicken (not the jerk chicken; Bob got those the other day and they didn’t impress me). I’m about to pay and then a bunch of people come in and start ordering. The woman behind the counter asks if I’m in a hurry, I ask why, she whispers, For the same price you can get a dozen. So I get two more spicy beef and a chicken. She whispers that I shouldn’t tell anyone. I can’t really figure out why I’m getting this special treatment. So I walk out of there with 12 patties. Total cost: $17.25. It’s a good deal: they’re small but not that small. Sure, I ate 6 of them, but I was hungry. Chapt

3 0.79014349 164 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-26-A very short story

Introduction: A few years ago we went to a nearby fried chicken place that the Village Voice had raved about. While we were waiting to place our order, someone from the local Chinese takeout place came in with a delivery, which the employees of the chicken place proceeded to eat. This should’ve been our signal to leave. Instead, we bought some chicken. It was terrible.

4 0.724365 2230 andrew gelman stats-2014-03-02-What is it with Americans in Olympic ski teams from tropical countries?

Introduction: Every time I hear this sort of story: Morrone—listed at 48 years old, which would have made her the oldest Olympic cross-country skier of all time by seven years—didn’t even show up for the 10K women’s classic on Feb. 13, claiming injury. (She was the only one of the race’s 76 entrants who didn’t start.) A day later, in the 15K men’s classic, di Silvestri, 47, made it out of the starting gate but gave up just a few hundred meters later, claiming illness. He was reportedly the only starter who failed to make even the first checkpoint. I think about my cousin Bill . At least when Bill skied in the winter olympics a bunch of years ago as part of the Puerto Rican team, he finished. OK, he finished last, but somebody had to finish last. At least he skied down the whole damn slope. P.S. I have no idea how Puerto Rico was allowed to have an olympic team. As you might have heard, it’s not actually a country. P.P.S. My cousin is not Puerto Rican. But I think he’s gone the

5 0.67705303 699 andrew gelman stats-2011-05-06-Another stereotype demolished

Introduction: I’ve heard from various sources that when you give a talk in an econ dept that they eat you alive: typically the audience showers you with questions and you are lucky to get past the second slide in your presentation. So far, though, I’ve given seminar talks in three economics departments–George Mason University a few years ago, Sciences Po last year, and Hunter College yesterday–and all three times the audiences have been completely normal. They did not interrupt unduly and they asked a bunch of good questions at the end. n=3, sure. But still.

6 0.65379626 1734 andrew gelman stats-2013-02-23-Life in the C-suite: A graph that is both ugly and bad, and an unrelated story

7 0.64458317 1700 andrew gelman stats-2013-01-31-Snotty reviewers

8 0.62447011 1399 andrew gelman stats-2012-06-28-Life imitates blog

9 0.61295974 354 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-19-There’s only one Amtrak

10 0.6079064 1381 andrew gelman stats-2012-06-16-The Art of Fielding

11 0.60453761 1185 andrew gelman stats-2012-02-26-A statistician’s rants and raves

12 0.60394287 2052 andrew gelman stats-2013-10-05-Give me a ticket for an aeroplane

13 0.60223162 912 andrew gelman stats-2011-09-15-n = 2

14 0.60197854 1549 andrew gelman stats-2012-10-26-My talk at the Larchmont public library this Sunday

15 0.60069418 2271 andrew gelman stats-2014-03-28-What happened to the world we knew?

16 0.60058087 1451 andrew gelman stats-2012-08-08-Robert Kosara reviews Ed Tufte’s short course

17 0.59998196 1417 andrew gelman stats-2012-07-15-Some decision analysis problems are pretty easy, no?

18 0.59229386 831 andrew gelman stats-2011-07-30-A Wikipedia riddle!

19 0.59168875 1190 andrew gelman stats-2012-02-29-Why “Why”?

20 0.59073186 1039 andrew gelman stats-2011-12-02-I just flew in from the econ seminar, and boy are my arms tired


similar blogs computed by lda model

lda for this blog:

topicId topicWeight

[(24, 0.083), (43, 0.01), (68, 0.025), (72, 0.038), (90, 0.559), (99, 0.166)]

similar blogs list:

simIndex simValue blogId blogTitle

1 0.94620979 512 andrew gelman stats-2011-01-12-Picking pennies in front of a steamroller: A parable comes to life

Introduction: Chapter 1 On Sunday we were over on 125 St so I stopped by the Jamaican beef patties place but they were closed. Jesus Taco was next door so I went there instead. What a mistake! I don’t know what Masanao and Yu-Sung could’ve been thinking. Anyway, then I had Jamaican beef patties on the brain so I went by Monday afternoon and asked for 9: 3 spicy beef, 3 mild beef (for the kids), and 3 chicken (not the jerk chicken; Bob got those the other day and they didn’t impress me). I’m about to pay and then a bunch of people come in and start ordering. The woman behind the counter asks if I’m in a hurry, I ask why, she whispers, For the same price you can get a dozen. So I get two more spicy beef and a chicken. She whispers that I shouldn’t tell anyone. I can’t really figure out why I’m getting this special treatment. So I walk out of there with 12 patties. Total cost: $17.25. It’s a good deal: they’re small but not that small. Sure, I ate 6 of them, but I was hungry. Chapt

same-blog 2 0.92749548 2259 andrew gelman stats-2014-03-22-Picking pennies in front of a steamroller: A parable comes to life

Introduction: From 2011: Chapter 1 On Sunday we were over on 125 St so I stopped by the Jamaican beef patties place but they were closed. Jesus Taco was next door so I went there instead. What a mistake! I don’t know what Masanao and Yu-Sung could’ve been thinking. Anyway, then I had Jamaican beef patties on the brain so I went by Monday afternoon and asked for 9: 3 spicy beef, 3 mild beef (for the kids), and 3 chicken (not the jerk chicken; Bob got those the other day and they didn’t impress me). I’m about to pay and then a bunch of people come in and start ordering. The woman behind the counter asks if I’m in a hurry, I ask why, she whispers, For the same price you can get a dozen. So I get two more spicy beef and a chicken. She whispers that I shouldn’t tell anyone. I can’t really figure out why I’m getting this special treatment. So I walk out of there with 12 patties. Total cost: $17.25. It’s a good deal: they’re small but not that small. Sure, I ate 6 of them, but I was h

3 0.75594908 475 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-19-All politics are local — not

Introduction: Mickey Kaus does a public service by trashing Tip O’Neill’s famous dictum that “all politics are local.” As Kaus point out, all the congressional elections in recent decades have been nationalized. I’d go one step further and say that, sure, all politics are local–if you’re Tip O’Neill and represent a ironclad Democratic seat in Congress. It’s easy to be smug about your political skills if you’re in a safe seat and have enough pull in state politics to avoid your district getting gerrymandered. Then you can sit there and sagely attribute your success to your continuing mastery of local politics rather than to whatever it took to get the seat in the first place.

4 0.61308336 1417 andrew gelman stats-2012-07-15-Some decision analysis problems are pretty easy, no?

Introduction: Cassie Murdoch reports : A 47-year-old woman in Uxbridge, Massachusetts, got behind the wheel of her car after having a bit too much to drink, but instead of wreaking havoc on the road, she ended up lodged in a sand trap at a local golf course. Why? Because her GPS made her do it—obviously! She said the GPS told her to turn left, and she did, right into a cornfield. That didn’t faze her, and she just kept on going until she ended up on the golf course and got stuck in the sand. There were people on the course at the time, but thankfully nobody was injured. Police found a cup full of alcohol in her car and arrested her for driving drunk. Here’s the punchline: This is the fourth time she’s been arrested for a DUI. Assuming this story is accurate, I guess they don’t have one of those “three strikes” laws in Massachusetts? Personally, I’m a lot more afraid of a dangerous driver than of some drug dealer. I’d think a simple cost-benefit calculation would recommend taking away

5 0.57423449 1411 andrew gelman stats-2012-07-10-Defining ourselves arbitrarily

Introduction: Robin Hanson writes that he does’t use slang: I [Hanson] am not into slang. I want to talk to the widest possible audience, and to focus on timeless issues and insights, as opposed to the latest fashionable topics. I can see why people want to signal loyalty to their groups, especially in the military, but I have little confidence that this is good for the world as a whole. I don’t know anything about the military (I don’t think this really counts) so I can’t comment on that part, and I don’t see the opposition between slang and “timeless issues and insights, as opposed to the latest fashionable topics” (after all, Mark Twain used slang and he had some timeless insights), but I’d like to pick up on a slightly different angle here, which is the set of quasi-arbitrary choices we make in order to define ourselves. Robin Hanson happens not to use much slang and he uses this trait to define himself, not quite to stand out in the crowd but to put himself on one end of a scale. I

6 0.56405789 1522 andrew gelman stats-2012-10-05-High temperatures cause violent crime and implications for climate change, also some suggestions about how to better summarize these claims

7 0.54503286 1655 andrew gelman stats-2013-01-05-The statistics software signal

8 0.50154936 367 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-25-In today’s economy, the rich get richer

9 0.49446785 1947 andrew gelman stats-2013-07-20-We are what we are studying

10 0.48087841 15 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-03-Public Opinion on Health Care Reform

11 0.47879785 1932 andrew gelman stats-2013-07-10-Don’t trust the Turk

12 0.46026802 762 andrew gelman stats-2011-06-13-How should journals handle replication studies?

13 0.4472059 478 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-20-More on why “all politics is local” is an outdated slogan

14 0.44289774 2026 andrew gelman stats-2013-09-16-He’s adult entertainer, Child educator, King of the crossfader, He’s the greatest of the greater, He’s a big bad wolf in your neighborhood, Not bad meaning bad but bad meaning good

15 0.44175482 766 andrew gelman stats-2011-06-14-Last Wegman post (for now)

16 0.42594248 1842 andrew gelman stats-2013-05-05-Cleaning up science

17 0.42058232 1934 andrew gelman stats-2013-07-11-Yes, worry about generalizing from data to population. But multilevel modeling is the solution, not the problem

18 0.41668689 2205 andrew gelman stats-2014-02-10-More on US health care overkill

19 0.3990756 349 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-18-Bike shelf

20 0.39722627 875 andrew gelman stats-2011-08-28-Better than Dennis the dentist or Laura the lawyer