andrew_gelman_stats andrew_gelman_stats-2013 andrew_gelman_stats-2013-1932 knowledge-graph by maker-knowledge-mining
Source: html
Introduction: Dan Kahan gives a bunch of reasons not to trust Mechanical Turk in psychology experiments, in particular when studying “hypotheses about cognition and political conflict over societal risks and other policy-relevant facts.”
sentIndex sentText sentNum sentScore
1 Dan Kahan gives a bunch of reasons not to trust Mechanical Turk in psychology experiments, in particular when studying “hypotheses about cognition and political conflict over societal risks and other policy-relevant facts. [sent-1, score-2.524]
wordName wordTfidf (topN-words)
[('societal', 0.382), ('turk', 0.312), ('cognition', 0.307), ('mechanical', 0.283), ('kahan', 0.277), ('risks', 0.266), ('conflict', 0.258), ('hypotheses', 0.243), ('dan', 0.225), ('trust', 0.207), ('studying', 0.206), ('experiments', 0.188), ('reasons', 0.176), ('bunch', 0.167), ('gives', 0.166), ('psychology', 0.164), ('political', 0.114), ('particular', 0.111)]
simIndex simValue blogId blogTitle
same-blog 1 1.0 1932 andrew gelman stats-2013-07-10-Don’t trust the Turk
Introduction: Dan Kahan gives a bunch of reasons not to trust Mechanical Turk in psychology experiments, in particular when studying “hypotheses about cognition and political conflict over societal risks and other policy-relevant facts.”
2 0.20861506 40 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-18-What visualization is best?
Introduction: Jeff Heer and Mike Bostock provided Mechanical Turk workers with a problem they had to answer using different types of charts. The lower error the workers got, the better the visualization. Here are some results from their paper Crowdsourcing Graphical Perception: Using Mechanical Turk to Assess Visualization Design : They also looked at various settings, like density, aspect ratio, spacing, etc. Visualization has become empirical science, no longer just art.
Introduction: We’re doing a new thing here at the Applied Statistics Center, throwing monthly Friday afternoon mini-conferences in the Playroom (inspired by our successful miniconference on statistical consulting a couple years ago). This Friday (10 Sept), 1-5pm : Come join us this Friday, September 10th for an engaging interdisciplinary discussion of risk perception at the individual and societal level, and the role it plays in current environmental, social, and health policy debates. All are welcome! “Risk Perception in Environmental Decision-Making” Elke Weber, Columbia Business School “Cultural Cognition and the Problem of Science Communication” Dan Kahan, Yale Law School Discussants include: Michael Gerrard, Columbia Law School David Epstein, Department of Political Science, Columbia University Andrew Gelman, Department of Statistics, Columbia University
4 0.15088072 1633 andrew gelman stats-2012-12-21-Kahan on Pinker on politics
Introduction: Reacting to my recent post on Steven Pinker’s too-broad (in my opinion) speculations on red and blue states, Dan “cultural cognition” Kahan writes : Pinker is clearly right to note that mass political opinions on seemingly diverse issues cohere, and Andrew, I think, is way too quick to challenge this I [Kahan] could cite to billions of interesting papers, but I’ll just show you what I mean instead. A recent CCP data collection involving a nationally representative on-line sample of 1750 subjects included a module that asked the subjects to indicate on a six-point scale “how strongly . . . you support or oppose” a collection of policies: policy_gun Stricter gun control laws in the United States. policy_healthcare Universal health care. policy_taxcut Raising income taxes for persons in the highest-income tax bracket. policy_affirmative action Affirmative action for minorities. policy_warming Stricter carbon emission standards to reduce global warming. Positions c
5 0.14650595 1833 andrew gelman stats-2013-04-30-“Tragedy of the science-communication commons”
Introduction: I’ve earlier written that science is science communication —that is, the act of communicating scientific ideas and findings to ourselves and others is itself a central part of science. My point was to push against a conventional separation between the act of science and the act of communication, the idea that science is done by scientists and communication is done by communicators. It’s a rare bit of science that does not include communication as part of it. As a scientist and science communicator myself, I’m particularly sensitive to devaluing of communication. (For example, Bayesian Data Analysis is full of original research that was done in order to communicate; or, to put it another way, we often think we understand a scientific idea, but once we try to communicate it, we recognize gaps in our understanding that motivate further research.) I once saw the following on one of those inspirational-sayings-for-every-day desk calendars: “To have ideas is to gather flowers. To thin
6 0.14284085 190 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-07-Mister P makes the big jump from the New York Times to the Washington Post
7 0.14081271 1111 andrew gelman stats-2012-01-10-The blog of the Cultural Cognition Project
9 0.13320071 2188 andrew gelman stats-2014-01-27-“Disappointed with your results? Boost your scientific paper”
10 0.12059465 2004 andrew gelman stats-2013-09-01-Post-publication peer review: How it (sometimes) really works
11 0.10682469 1629 andrew gelman stats-2012-12-18-It happened in Connecticut
12 0.10360553 1051 andrew gelman stats-2011-12-10-Towards a Theory of Trust in Networks of Humans and Computers
13 0.10190458 524 andrew gelman stats-2011-01-19-Data exploration and multiple comparisons
14 0.092814043 1104 andrew gelman stats-2012-01-07-A compelling reason to go to London, Ontario??
15 0.092172801 1253 andrew gelman stats-2012-04-08-Technology speedup graph
16 0.088967919 433 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-27-One way that psychology research is different than medical research
17 0.088327959 2155 andrew gelman stats-2013-12-31-No on Yes-No decisions
18 0.085105263 175 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-02-A useful rule of thumb
19 0.083265141 1860 andrew gelman stats-2013-05-17-How can statisticians help psychologists do their research better?
20 0.083109893 2263 andrew gelman stats-2014-03-24-Empirical implications of Empirical Implications of Theoretical Models
topicId topicWeight
[(0, 0.052), (1, -0.03), (2, 0.0), (3, -0.044), (4, -0.05), (5, -0.016), (6, -0.048), (7, -0.012), (8, -0.013), (9, 0.03), (10, -0.016), (11, 0.001), (12, 0.0), (13, -0.025), (14, 0.011), (15, -0.004), (16, -0.018), (17, -0.025), (18, -0.016), (19, -0.02), (20, -0.017), (21, -0.031), (22, -0.075), (23, -0.013), (24, 0.008), (25, -0.031), (26, 0.046), (27, -0.008), (28, 0.004), (29, -0.055), (30, -0.039), (31, -0.03), (32, 0.011), (33, -0.056), (34, -0.037), (35, -0.073), (36, 0.002), (37, -0.036), (38, 0.024), (39, -0.051), (40, 0.049), (41, -0.042), (42, 0.034), (43, 0.013), (44, -0.047), (45, -0.027), (46, 0.032), (47, 0.059), (48, -0.005), (49, -0.05)]
simIndex simValue blogId blogTitle
same-blog 1 0.99175143 1932 andrew gelman stats-2013-07-10-Don’t trust the Turk
Introduction: Dan Kahan gives a bunch of reasons not to trust Mechanical Turk in psychology experiments, in particular when studying “hypotheses about cognition and political conflict over societal risks and other policy-relevant facts.”
2 0.64905071 1166 andrew gelman stats-2012-02-13-Recently in the sister blog
Introduction: Lingsanity! What the sophisticates thought in September 2008 Political opinions of U.S. military The origin of essentialist reasoning
3 0.62410629 600 andrew gelman stats-2011-03-04-“Social Psychologists Detect Liberal Bias Within”
Introduction: Mark Palko asks what I think of this news article by John Tierney. The article’s webpage is given the strange incomplete title above. My first comment is that the headline appears false. I didn’t see any evidence presented of liberal bias. (If the headline says “Social psychologists detect,” I expect to see some detection, not just anecdotes.) What I did see was a discussion of the fact that most academic psychologists consider themselves politically liberal (a pattern that holds for academic researchers in general), along with some anecdotes of moderates over the years who have felt their political views disrespected by the liberal majority. I’m interested in the topic, and I’m open to the possibility that there are all sorts of biases in academic research–but I don’t see the evidence from this article that social psychologists have detected any bias yet. Phrases such as “a statistically impossible lack of diversity” are just silly. What I really wonder is what John Jo
Introduction: It all began with this message from Dan Kahan, a law professor who does psychology experiments: My graphs– what do you think?? I guess what do you think of the result too, but the answer is, “That’s obvious!” If it hadn’t been, then it would have been suspicious in my book. Of course, if we had found the opposite result, that would have been “obvious!” too. We are submitting to LR ≠1 Journa l This is the latest study in series looking at relationship between critical reasoning capacities and “cultural cognition” — the tendency of individuals to conform their perceptions of risk & other policy-relevant facts to their group commitments. The first installment was an observational study that found that cultural polarization ( political too ; the distinction relate not to the mechanism for polarization over decision-relevant science but only about how to measure what is hypothesized to be driving it) increases as people become more science literate. This paper and ano
5 0.61582887 1111 andrew gelman stats-2012-01-10-The blog of the Cultural Cognition Project
Introduction: Dan Kahan and colleagues write : The Cultural Cognition Project is a group of scholars interested in studying how cultural values shape public risk perceptions and related policy beliefs. Cultural cognition refers to the tendency of individuals to conform their beliefs about disputed matters of fact (e.g., whether global warming is a serious threat; whether the death penalty deters murder; whether gun control makes society more safe or less) to values that define their cultural identities. Project members are using the methods of various disciplines — including social psychology, anthropology, communications, and political science — to chart the impact of this phenomenon and to identify the mechanisms through which it operates. The Project also has an explicit normative objective: to identify processes of democratic decisionmaking by which society can resolve culturally grounded differences in belief in a manner that is both congenial to persons of diverse cultural outlooks and c
7 0.60204166 877 andrew gelman stats-2011-08-29-Applying quantum probability to political science
8 0.57989663 1833 andrew gelman stats-2013-04-30-“Tragedy of the science-communication commons”
9 0.57171804 1633 andrew gelman stats-2012-12-21-Kahan on Pinker on politics
10 0.5714947 1051 andrew gelman stats-2011-12-10-Towards a Theory of Trust in Networks of Humans and Computers
11 0.56384254 1537 andrew gelman stats-2012-10-17-100!
12 0.54117376 1947 andrew gelman stats-2013-07-20-We are what we are studying
14 0.51692647 175 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-02-A useful rule of thumb
15 0.51167482 2093 andrew gelman stats-2013-11-07-I’m negative on the expression “false positives”
16 0.51150209 1515 andrew gelman stats-2012-09-29-Jost Haidt
18 0.49947149 604 andrew gelman stats-2011-03-08-More on the missing conservative psychology researchers
19 0.49761218 994 andrew gelman stats-2011-11-06-Josh Tenenbaum presents . . . a model of folk physics!
20 0.49607289 1 andrew gelman stats-2010-04-22-Political Belief Networks: Socio-cognitive Heterogeneity in American Public Opinion
topicId topicWeight
[(15, 0.104), (16, 0.056), (21, 0.148), (24, 0.109), (90, 0.134), (99, 0.264)]
simIndex simValue blogId blogTitle
same-blog 1 0.96873808 1932 andrew gelman stats-2013-07-10-Don’t trust the Turk
Introduction: Dan Kahan gives a bunch of reasons not to trust Mechanical Turk in psychology experiments, in particular when studying “hypotheses about cognition and political conflict over societal risks and other policy-relevant facts.”
2 0.93630165 762 andrew gelman stats-2011-06-13-How should journals handle replication studies?
Introduction: Sanjay Srivastava reports : Recently Ben Goldacre wrote about a group of researchers (Stuart Ritchie, Chris French, and Richard Wiseman) whose null replication of 3 experiments from the infamous Bem ESP paper was rejected by JPSP – the same journal that published Bem’s paper. Srivastava recognizes that JPSP does not usually publish replications but this is a different story because it’s an anti-replication. Here’s the paradox: - From a scientific point of view, the Ritchie et al. results are boring. To find out that there’s no evidence for ESP . . . that adds essentially zero to our scientific understanding. What next, a paper demonstrating that pigeons can fly higher than chickens? Maybe an article in the Journal of the Materials Research Society demonstrating that diamonds can scratch marble but not the reverse?? - But from a science-communication perspective, the null replication is a big deal because it adds credence to my hypothesis that the earlier ESP claims
Introduction: Erin Jonaitis points us to this article by Christopher Ferguson and Moritz Heene, who write: Publication bias remains a controversial issue in psychological science. . . . that the field often constructs arguments to block the publication and interpretation of null results and that null results may be further extinguished through questionable researcher practices. Given that science is dependent on the process of falsification, we argue that these problems reduce psychological science’s capability to have a proper mechanism for theory falsification, thus resulting in the promulgation of numerous “undead” theories that are ideologically popular but have little basis in fact. They mention the infamous Daryl Bem article. It is pretty much only because Bem’s claims are (presumably) false that they got published in a major research journal. Had the claims been true—that is, had Bem run identical experiments, analyzed his data more carefully and objectively, and reported that the r
4 0.89942551 1842 andrew gelman stats-2013-05-05-Cleaning up science
Introduction: David Hogg pointed me to this post by Gary Marcus, reviewing this skeptics’ all-star issue of Perspectives on Psychological Science that features replication culture heroes Jelte Wicherts, Hal Pashler, Arina Bones, E. J. Wagenmakers, Gregory Francis, Hal Pashler, John Ioannidis, and Uri Simonsohn. I agree with pretty much everything Marcus has to say. In addition to Marcus’s suggestions, which might be called cultural or psychological, I also have various statistical ideas that might help move the field forward. Most notably I think we need to go beyond uniform priors and null-hypothesis testing to a more realistic set of models for effects and variation. I’ll discuss more at some other time, but in the meantime I thought I’d share these links. P.S. Marcus updates with a glass-is-half-full take.
5 0.89665639 15 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-03-Public Opinion on Health Care Reform
Introduction: My article with Daniel and Yair has recently appeared in The Forum: We use multilevel modeling to estimate support for health-care reform by age, income, and state. Opposition to reform is concentrated among higher-income voters and those over 65. Attitudes do not vary much by state. Unfortunately, our poll data only go to 2004, but we suspect that much can be learned from the relative positions of different demographic groups and different states, despite swings in national opinion. We speculate on the political implications of these findings. The article features some pretty graphs that originally appeared on the blog. It’s in a special issue on health care politics that has several interesting articles, among which I’d like to single out this one by Bob Shapiro and Lawrence Jacobs entitled, “Simulating Representation: Elite Mobilization and Political Power in Health Care Reform”: The public’s core policy preferences have, for some time, favored expanding access to heal
6 0.89279652 1275 andrew gelman stats-2012-04-22-Please stop me before I barf again
8 0.88903695 62 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-01-Two Postdoc Positions Available on Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling
10 0.88404489 432 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-27-Neumann update
12 0.88082302 854 andrew gelman stats-2011-08-15-A silly paper that tries to make fun of multilevel models
13 0.88078475 1947 andrew gelman stats-2013-07-20-We are what we are studying
14 0.8799268 1417 andrew gelman stats-2012-07-15-Some decision analysis problems are pretty easy, no?
15 0.87992215 1675 andrew gelman stats-2013-01-15-“10 Things You Need to Know About Causal Effects”
16 0.8790406 1989 andrew gelman stats-2013-08-20-Correcting for multiple comparisons in a Bayesian regression model
17 0.87865102 1411 andrew gelman stats-2012-07-10-Defining ourselves arbitrarily
18 0.87534744 514 andrew gelman stats-2011-01-13-News coverage of statistical issues…how did I do?
19 0.87166083 1857 andrew gelman stats-2013-05-15-Does quantum uncertainty have a place in everyday applied statistics?
20 0.86931312 151 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-16-Wanted: Probability distributions for rank orderings