andrew_gelman_stats andrew_gelman_stats-2014 andrew_gelman_stats-2014-2253 knowledge-graph by maker-knowledge-mining
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Introduction: Just for fun I thought I’d run a week’s worth of old posts, just some things I came across when searching for various things. Of course I could just post the links right here but instead I’ll repost with my comments on how things have changed in the intervening years. Mon : In the best alternative histories, the real world is what’s ultimately real (from 2005) Tues : Comments on an anti-Bayesian (from 2006) Wed : How Americans vote (from 2012) Thurs : The candy weighing demonstration, or, the unwisdom of crowds (from 2008) Fri : Random matrices in the news (from 2010) Sat : Picking pennies in front of a steamroller: A parable comes to life (from 2011) Sun : Greg Mankiw’s utility function (from 2010)
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1 Just for fun I thought I’d run a week’s worth of old posts, just some things I came across when searching for various things. [sent-1, score-0.817]
2 Of course I could just post the links right here but instead I’ll repost with my comments on how things have changed in the intervening years. [sent-2, score-0.924]
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same-blog 1 1.0 2253 andrew gelman stats-2014-03-17-On deck this week: Revisitings
Introduction: Just for fun I thought I’d run a week’s worth of old posts, just some things I came across when searching for various things. Of course I could just post the links right here but instead I’ll repost with my comments on how things have changed in the intervening years. Mon : In the best alternative histories, the real world is what’s ultimately real (from 2005) Tues : Comments on an anti-Bayesian (from 2006) Wed : How Americans vote (from 2012) Thurs : The candy weighing demonstration, or, the unwisdom of crowds (from 2008) Fri : Random matrices in the news (from 2010) Sat : Picking pennies in front of a steamroller: A parable comes to life (from 2011) Sun : Greg Mankiw’s utility function (from 2010)
2 0.33517563 2265 andrew gelman stats-2014-03-24-On deck this week
Introduction: OK, I’ve given up on theme weeks . I have enough saved-up material to do it, and it wouldn’t be too much trouble to group the scheduled posts into themes, but there doesn’t really seem to be a point. I say this because, having looked at the comment threads from the past few weeks, the comments seem pretty much tied to individual posts in any case. So I think I’ll go back to the old system where each post stands alone. Just for fun I thought I’d run a week’s worth of old posts, just some things I came across when searching for various things. Of course I could just post the links right here but instead I’ll repost with my comments on how things have changed in the intervening years. Mon : Empirical implications of Empirical Implications of Theoretical Models Tues : A statistical graphics course and statistical graphics advice Wed : What property is important in a risk prediction model? Discrimination or calibration? Thurs : Beyond the Valley of the Trolls Fri :
3 0.2233136 2290 andrew gelman stats-2014-04-14-On deck this week
Introduction: Mon : Transitioning to Stan Tues : When you believe in things that you don’t understand Wed : Looking for Bayesian expertise in India, for the purpose of analysis of sarcoma trials Thurs : If you get to the point of asking, just do it. But some difficulties do arise . . . Fri : One-tailed or two-tailed? Sat : Index or indicator variables Sun : Fooled by randomness
4 0.21225287 2240 andrew gelman stats-2014-03-10-On deck this week: Things people sent me
Introduction: Mon: Preregistration: what’s in it for you? Tues: What if I were to stop publishing in journals? Wed: Empirical implications of Empirical Implications of Theoretical Models Thurs: An Economist’s Guide to Visualizing Data Fri: The maximal information coefficient Sat: Problematic interpretations of confidence intervals Sun: The more you look, the more you find
5 0.21161532 2366 andrew gelman stats-2014-06-09-On deck this week
Introduction: Mon: I hate polynomials Tues: Spring forward, fall back, drop dead? Wed: Bayes in the research conversation Thurs: The health policy innovation center: how best to move from pilot studies to large-scale practice? Fri: Stroopy names Sat: He’s not so great in math but wants to do statistics and machine learning Sun: Comparing the full model to the partial model
6 0.19899017 2348 andrew gelman stats-2014-05-26-On deck this week
7 0.19538137 2276 andrew gelman stats-2014-03-31-On deck this week
8 0.19173312 2321 andrew gelman stats-2014-05-05-On deck this week
9 0.18303639 2339 andrew gelman stats-2014-05-19-On deck this week
10 0.18187785 2206 andrew gelman stats-2014-02-10-On deck this week
11 0.17461511 2331 andrew gelman stats-2014-05-12-On deck this week
12 0.17373726 2356 andrew gelman stats-2014-06-02-On deck this week
13 0.16255754 2298 andrew gelman stats-2014-04-21-On deck this week
14 0.15969919 2285 andrew gelman stats-2014-04-07-On deck this week
15 0.14403306 2222 andrew gelman stats-2014-02-24-On deck this week
16 0.14095157 2310 andrew gelman stats-2014-04-28-On deck this week
17 0.13899611 338 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-12-Update on Mankiw’s work incentives
19 0.13165911 2261 andrew gelman stats-2014-03-23-Greg Mankiw’s utility function
20 0.12976322 2214 andrew gelman stats-2014-02-17-On deck this week
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same-blog 1 0.9737379 2253 andrew gelman stats-2014-03-17-On deck this week: Revisitings
Introduction: Just for fun I thought I’d run a week’s worth of old posts, just some things I came across when searching for various things. Of course I could just post the links right here but instead I’ll repost with my comments on how things have changed in the intervening years. Mon : In the best alternative histories, the real world is what’s ultimately real (from 2005) Tues : Comments on an anti-Bayesian (from 2006) Wed : How Americans vote (from 2012) Thurs : The candy weighing demonstration, or, the unwisdom of crowds (from 2008) Fri : Random matrices in the news (from 2010) Sat : Picking pennies in front of a steamroller: A parable comes to life (from 2011) Sun : Greg Mankiw’s utility function (from 2010)
2 0.86256379 2298 andrew gelman stats-2014-04-21-On deck this week
Introduction: Mon : Ticket to Baaaath Tues : Ticket to Baaaaarf Wed : Thinking of doing a list experiment? Here’s a list of reasons why you should think again Thurs : An open site for researchers to post and share papers Fri : Questions about “Too Good to Be True” Sat : Sleazy sock puppet can’t stop spamming our discussion of compressed sensing and promoting the work of Xiteng Liu Sun : White stripes and dead armadillos
3 0.85531622 2276 andrew gelman stats-2014-03-31-On deck this week
Introduction: Mon : The most-cited statistics papers ever Tues : American Psychological Society announces a new journal Wed : Am I too negative? Thurs : As the boldest experiment in journalism history, you admit you made a mistake Fri : The Notorious N.H.S.T. presents: Mo P-values Mo Problems Sat : Bizarre academic spam Sun : An old discussion of food deserts
4 0.78779644 2265 andrew gelman stats-2014-03-24-On deck this week
Introduction: OK, I’ve given up on theme weeks . I have enough saved-up material to do it, and it wouldn’t be too much trouble to group the scheduled posts into themes, but there doesn’t really seem to be a point. I say this because, having looked at the comment threads from the past few weeks, the comments seem pretty much tied to individual posts in any case. So I think I’ll go back to the old system where each post stands alone. Just for fun I thought I’d run a week’s worth of old posts, just some things I came across when searching for various things. Of course I could just post the links right here but instead I’ll repost with my comments on how things have changed in the intervening years. Mon : Empirical implications of Empirical Implications of Theoretical Models Tues : A statistical graphics course and statistical graphics advice Wed : What property is important in a risk prediction model? Discrimination or calibration? Thurs : Beyond the Valley of the Trolls Fri :
5 0.78728014 2240 andrew gelman stats-2014-03-10-On deck this week: Things people sent me
Introduction: Mon: Preregistration: what’s in it for you? Tues: What if I were to stop publishing in journals? Wed: Empirical implications of Empirical Implications of Theoretical Models Thurs: An Economist’s Guide to Visualizing Data Fri: The maximal information coefficient Sat: Problematic interpretations of confidence intervals Sun: The more you look, the more you find
6 0.78360611 2206 andrew gelman stats-2014-02-10-On deck this week
7 0.78241384 2290 andrew gelman stats-2014-04-14-On deck this week
8 0.75953102 2366 andrew gelman stats-2014-06-09-On deck this week
9 0.75793767 2331 andrew gelman stats-2014-05-12-On deck this week
10 0.75514072 2310 andrew gelman stats-2014-04-28-On deck this week
11 0.75114477 2348 andrew gelman stats-2014-05-26-On deck this week
12 0.72324491 2339 andrew gelman stats-2014-05-19-On deck this week
13 0.71486437 2214 andrew gelman stats-2014-02-17-On deck this week
14 0.71044213 2356 andrew gelman stats-2014-06-02-On deck this week
15 0.70055586 2285 andrew gelman stats-2014-04-07-On deck this week
16 0.69130903 2321 andrew gelman stats-2014-05-05-On deck this week
17 0.59931773 2264 andrew gelman stats-2014-03-24-On deck this month
18 0.59609193 2222 andrew gelman stats-2014-02-24-On deck this week
20 0.49288467 2320 andrew gelman stats-2014-05-05-On deck this month
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same-blog 1 0.92361438 2253 andrew gelman stats-2014-03-17-On deck this week: Revisitings
Introduction: Just for fun I thought I’d run a week’s worth of old posts, just some things I came across when searching for various things. Of course I could just post the links right here but instead I’ll repost with my comments on how things have changed in the intervening years. Mon : In the best alternative histories, the real world is what’s ultimately real (from 2005) Tues : Comments on an anti-Bayesian (from 2006) Wed : How Americans vote (from 2012) Thurs : The candy weighing demonstration, or, the unwisdom of crowds (from 2008) Fri : Random matrices in the news (from 2010) Sat : Picking pennies in front of a steamroller: A parable comes to life (from 2011) Sun : Greg Mankiw’s utility function (from 2010)
2 0.83332425 418 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-17-ff
Introduction: Can somebody please fix the pdf reader so that it can correctly render “ff” when I cut and paste? This comes up when I’m copying sections of articles on to the blog. Thank you. P.S. I googled “ff pdf” but no help there. P.P.S. It’s a problem with “fi” also. P.P.P.S. Yes, I know about ligatures. But, if you already knew about ligatures, and I already know about ligatures, then presumably the pdf people already know about ligatures too. So why can’t their clever program, which can already find individual f’s, also find the ff’s and separate them? I assume it’s not so simple but I don’t quite understand why not.
3 0.79846394 881 andrew gelman stats-2011-08-30-Rickey Henderson and Peter Angelos, together again
Introduction: Today I was reminded of a riddle from junior high: Q: What do you get when you cross an elephant with peanut butter? A: Peanut butter that never forgets, or an elephant that sticks to the roof of your mouth. The occasion was a link from Tyler Cowen to a new book by Garry Kasparov and . . . Peter Thiel. Kasparov we all know about. I still remember how he pulled out a victory in the last game of his tournament with Karpov. Just amazing: he had to win the game, a draw would not be enough. Both players knew that Kasparov had to win. And he did it. A feat as impressive as Kirk Gibson’s off-the-bench game-winning home run in the 1987 Series. Peter Theil is a more obscure figure. He’s been featured a couple of times on this blog and comes across as your typical overconfident rich dude. It’s an odd combination, sort of like what you might get if Rickey Henderson and Peter Angelos were to write a book about how to reform baseball. Cowen writes, “How can I not pre-orde
4 0.79276484 942 andrew gelman stats-2011-10-04-45% hitting, 25% fielding, 25% pitching, and 100% not telling us how they did it
Introduction: A University of Delaware press release reports : This month, the Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports will feature the article “An Estimate of How Hitting, Pitching, Fielding, and Base-stealing Impact Team Winning Percentages in Baseball.” In it, University of Delaware Prof. Charles Pavitt of the Department of Communication defines the perfect “formula” for Major League Baseball (MLB) teams to use to build the ultimate winning team. Pavitt found hitting accounts for more than 45 percent of teams’ winning records, fielding for 25 percent and pitching for 25 percent. And that the impact of stolen bases is greatly overestimated. He crunched hitting, pitching, fielding and base-stealing records for every MLB team over a 48-year period from 1951-1998 with a method no other researcher has used in this area. In statistical parlance, he used a conceptual decomposition of offense and defense into its component parts and then analyzed recombinations of the parts in intuitively mea
5 0.78350997 615 andrew gelman stats-2011-03-16-Chess vs. checkers
Introduction: Mark Palko writes : Chess derives most of its complexity through differentiated pieces; with checkers the complexity comes from the interaction between pieces. The result is a series of elegant graph problems where the viable paths change with each move of your opponent. To draw an analogy with chess, imagine if moving your knight could allow your opponent’s bishop to move like a rook. Add to that the potential for traps and manipulation that come with forced capture and you have one of the most remarkable games of all time. . . . It’s not unusual to hear masters of both chess and checkers (draughts) to admit that they prefer the latter. So why does chess get all the respect? Why do you never see a criminal mastermind or a Bond villain playing in a checkers tournament? Part of the problem is that we learn the game as children so we tend to think of it as a children’s game. We focus on how simple the rules are and miss how much complexity and subtlety you can get out of those ru
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