andrew_gelman_stats andrew_gelman_stats-2012 andrew_gelman_stats-2012-1399 knowledge-graph by maker-knowledge-mining
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Introduction: I just noticed this from a couple years ago!
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same-blog 1 1.0 1399 andrew gelman stats-2012-06-28-Life imitates blog
Introduction: I just noticed this from a couple years ago!
Introduction: From 2.5 years ago . Read all the comments; the discussion is helpful.
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Introduction: The American Statistical Association has an annual recommended gift list. (I think they had Red State, Blue State on the list a couple years ago.) They need some more suggestions in the next couple of days. Does anybody have any ideas?
Introduction: Hey, here’s a book I’m not planning to read any time soon! As Bill James wrote, the alternative to good statistics is not “no statistics,” it’s bad statistics. (I wouldn’t have bothered to bring this one up, but I noticed it on one of our sister blogs.)
5 0.16180409 1897 andrew gelman stats-2013-06-13-When’s that next gamma-ray blast gonna come, already?
Introduction: Phil Plait writes : Earth May Have Been Hit by a Cosmic Blast 1200 Years Ago . . . this is nothing to panic about. If it happened at all, it was a long time ago, and unlikely to happen again for hundreds of thousands of years. This left me confused. If it really did happen 1200 years ago, basic statistics would suggest it would occur approximately once every 1200 years or so (within half an order of magnitude). So where does “hundreds of thousands of years” come from? I emailed astronomer David Hogg to see if I was missing something here, and he replied: Yeah, if we think this hit us 1200 years ago, we should imagine that this happens every few thousand years at least. Now that said, if there are *other* reasons for thinking it is exceedingly rare, then that would be a strong a priori argument against believing in the result. So you should either believe that it didn’t happen 1200 years ago, or else you should believe it will happen again in the next few thousan
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Introduction: I just noticed this from a couple years ago!
Introduction: From 2.5 years ago . Read all the comments; the discussion is helpful.
3 0.75034189 1185 andrew gelman stats-2012-02-26-A statistician’s rants and raves
Introduction: Not from me, from Dean Foster , who maybe was in the same stochastic processes course with me, thirty years ago.
4 0.7135191 164 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-26-A very short story
Introduction: A few years ago we went to a nearby fried chicken place that the Village Voice had raved about. While we were waiting to place our order, someone from the local Chinese takeout place came in with a delivery, which the employees of the chicken place proceeded to eat. This should’ve been our signal to leave. Instead, we bought some chicken. It was terrible.
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Introduction: I was distinguished for over three years and now am renowned. For most of the past year and a half, though, I was neither. Who am I? First person who guesses the right answer in comments gets a free copy of Jenny Davidson’s book, “Breeding”–as soon as she sends it to me, as she promised a couple years ago! You’ll get an extra prize if you can express the answer in an indirect way, without using the person’s name or being too obvious about it but making the identification clear enough that I know you know the answer. P.S. Reading Wikipedia edits . . . that’s a new low in time-wasting!
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Introduction: I just noticed this from a couple years ago!
2 0.96615225 26 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-11-Update on religious affiliations of Supreme Court justices
Introduction: When Sonia Sotomayor was nominated for the Supreme Court, and there was some discussion of having 6 Roman Catholics on the court at the same time, I posted the following historical graph: It’s time for an update: It’s still gonna take awhile for the Catholics to catch up. . . . And this one might be relevant too: It looks as if Jews and men have been overrepresented, also Episcopalians (which, as I noted earlier, are not necessarily considered Protestant in terms of religious doctrine but which I counted as such for the ethnic categorization). Religion is an interesting political variable because it’s nominally about religious belief but typically seems to be more about ethnicity.
3 0.95005465 420 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-18-Prison terms for financial fraud?
Introduction: My econ dept colleague Joseph Stiglitz suggests that financial fraudsters be sent to prison. He points out that the usual penalty–million-dollar fines–just isn’t enough for crimes whose rewards can be in the hundreds of millions of dollars. That all makes sense, but why do the options have to be: 1. No punishment 2. A fine with little punishment or deterrent value 3. Prison. What’s the point of putting nonviolent criminals in prison? As I’ve said before , I’d prefer if the government just took all these convicted thieves’ assets along with 95% of their salary for several years, made them do community service (sorting bottles and cans at the local dump, perhaps; a financier should be good at this sort of thing, no?), etc. If restriction of personal freedom is judged be part of the sentence, they could be given some sort of electronic tag that would send a message to the police if you are ever more than 3 miles from your home. And a curfew so you have to stay home bet
4 0.94984245 96 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-18-Course proposal: Bayesian and advanced likelihood statistical methods for zombies.
Introduction: The course outline ZombieCourseOutline.rtf Hints/draft R code for implementing this for a regression example from D. Pena x=c(1:10,17,17,17) y=c(1:10,25,25,25) ZombieAssign1.txt The assignment being to provide a legend that explains all the lines and symbols in this plot ZombieAssign1.pdf With a bonus assignment being to provide better R code and or techniques. And a possible graduate student assignment to investigate what percentage of examples in graduate stats texts (e.g. Cox & Hinkley) could be displayed this way (reducing the number of parameters to least number possible). K? p.s. might have been a better post for Friday the 13th p.s.2 background material from my thesis (passed in 2007) ThesisReprint.pdf
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Introduction: To the person who posted an apparently non-spam comment with a URL link to a “cheap cigarettes” website: In case you’re wondering, no, your comment didn’t get caught by the spam filter–I’m not sure why not, given that URL. I put it in the spam file manually. If you’d like to participate in blog discussion in the future, please refrain from including spam links. Thank you. Also, it’s “John Tukey,” not “John Turkey.”
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