andrew_gelman_stats andrew_gelman_stats-2012 andrew_gelman_stats-2012-1185 knowledge-graph by maker-knowledge-mining
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Introduction: Not from me, from Dean Foster , who maybe was in the same stochastic processes course with me, thirty years ago.
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same-blog 1 1.0000001 1185 andrew gelman stats-2012-02-26-A statistician’s rants and raves
Introduction: Not from me, from Dean Foster , who maybe was in the same stochastic processes course with me, thirty years ago.
2 0.13424832 1443 andrew gelman stats-2012-08-04-Bayesian Learning via Stochastic Gradient Langevin Dynamics
Introduction: Burak Bayramli writes: In this paper by Sunjin Ahn, Anoop Korattikara, and Max Welling and this paper by Welling and Yee Whye The, there are some arguments on big data and the use of MCMC. Both papers have suggested improvements to speed up MCMC computations. I was wondering what your thoughts were, especially on this paragraph: When a dataset has a billion data-cases (as is not uncommon these days) MCMC algorithms will not even have generated a single (burn-in) sample when a clever learning algorithm based on stochastic gradients may already be making fairly good predictions. In fact, the intriguing results of Bottou and Bousquet (2008) seem to indicate that in terms of “number of bits learned per unit of computation”, an algorithm as simple as stochastic gradient descent is almost optimally efficient. We therefore argue that for Bayesian methods to remain useful in an age when the datasets grow at an exponential rate, they need to embrace the ideas of the stochastic optimiz
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Introduction: I just noticed this from a couple years ago!
Introduction: From 2.5 years ago . Read all the comments; the discussion is helpful.
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Introduction: When I posted this link to Dean Foster’s rants, some commenters pointed out this linked claim by famed statistician/provacateur Bjorn Lomberg: If [writes Lomborg] you reduce your child’s intake of fruits and vegetables by just 0.03 grams a day (that’s the equivalent of half a grain of rice) when you opt for more expensive organic produce, the total risk of cancer goes up, not down. Omit buying just one apple every 20 years because you have gone organic, and your child is worse off. Let’s unpack Lomborg’s claim. I don’t know anything about the science of pesticides and cancer, but can he really be so sure that the effects are so small as to be comparable to the health effects of eating “just one apple every 20 years”? I can’t believe you could estimate effects to anything like that precision. I can’t believe anyone has such a precise estimate of the health effects of pesticides, and also I can’t believe anyone has such a precise effect of the health effect of eating an app
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Introduction: Not from me, from Dean Foster , who maybe was in the same stochastic processes course with me, thirty years ago.
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Introduction: I just noticed this from a couple years ago!
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Introduction: A few years ago we went to a nearby fried chicken place that the Village Voice had raved about. While we were waiting to place our order, someone from the local Chinese takeout place came in with a delivery, which the employees of the chicken place proceeded to eat. This should’ve been our signal to leave. Instead, we bought some chicken. It was terrible.
Introduction: From 2.5 years ago . Read all the comments; the discussion is helpful.
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Introduction: Phil Plait writes : Earth May Have Been Hit by a Cosmic Blast 1200 Years Ago . . . this is nothing to panic about. If it happened at all, it was a long time ago, and unlikely to happen again for hundreds of thousands of years. This left me confused. If it really did happen 1200 years ago, basic statistics would suggest it would occur approximately once every 1200 years or so (within half an order of magnitude). So where does “hundreds of thousands of years” come from? I emailed astronomer David Hogg to see if I was missing something here, and he replied: Yeah, if we think this hit us 1200 years ago, we should imagine that this happens every few thousand years at least. Now that said, if there are *other* reasons for thinking it is exceedingly rare, then that would be a strong a priori argument against believing in the result. So you should either believe that it didn’t happen 1200 years ago, or else you should believe it will happen again in the next few thousan
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Introduction: Lyric Semiconductor posted: For over 60 years, computers have been based on digital computing principles. Data is represented as bits (0s and 1s). Boolean logic gates perform operations on these bits. A processor steps through many of these operations serially in order to perform a function. However, today’s most interesting problems are not at all suited to this approach. Here at Lyric Semiconductor, we are redesigning information processing circuits from the ground up to natively process probabilities: from the gate circuits to the processor architecture to the programming language. As a result, many applications that today require a thousand conventional processors will soon run in just one Lyric processor, providing 1,000x efficiencies in cost, power, and size. Om Malik has some more information, also relating to the team and the business. The fundamental idea is that computing architectures work deterministically, even though the world is fundamentally stochastic.
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