andrew_gelman_stats andrew_gelman_stats-2014 andrew_gelman_stats-2014-2250 knowledge-graph by maker-knowledge-mining
Source: html
Introduction: Best blog comment ever , following up on our post, How tall is Jon Lee Anderson?: Based on this picture: http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2235/1640569735_05337bb974.jpg he appears to be fairly tall. But the perspective makes it hard to judge. Based on this picture: http://www.catalinagarcia.com/cata/Libraries/BLOG_Images/Cata_w_Jon_Lee_Anderson.sflb.ashx he appears to be about 9-10 inches taller than Catalina Garcia. But how tall is Catalina Garcia? Not that tall – she’s shorter than the high-wire artist Phillipe Petit http://www.catalinagarcia.com/cata/Libraries/BLOG_Images/Cata_w_Philippe_Petite.sflb.ashx. And he doesn’t appear to be that tall… about the same height as Claire Danes: http://cdn.theatermania.com/photo-gallery/Petit_Danes_Daldry_2421_4700.jpg – who according to Google is 5′ 6″. So if Jon Lee Anderson is 10″ taller than Catalina Garcia, who is 2″ shorter than Philippe Petit, who is the same height as Claire Danes, then he is 6′ 2″ tall. I have no idea who Catal
sentIndex sentText sentNum sentScore
1 Best blog comment ever , following up on our post, How tall is Jon Lee Anderson? [sent-1, score-0.497]
2 ashx he appears to be about 9-10 inches taller than Catalina Garcia. [sent-12, score-0.416]
3 Not that tall – she’s shorter than the high-wire artist Phillipe Petit http://www. [sent-14, score-0.625]
4 And he doesn’t appear to be that tall… about the same height as Claire Danes: http://cdn. [sent-19, score-0.205]
5 So if Jon Lee Anderson is 10″ taller than Catalina Garcia, who is 2″ shorter than Philippe Petit, who is the same height as Claire Danes, then he is 6′ 2″ tall. [sent-23, score-0.539]
6 I have no idea who Catalina Garcia is, but she makes a decent ruler. [sent-24, score-0.182]
wordName wordTfidf (topN-words)
[('catalina', 0.483), ('garcia', 0.362), ('tall', 0.355), ('danes', 0.241), ('petit', 0.241), ('claire', 0.218), ('http', 0.217), ('taller', 0.21), ('jon', 0.183), ('anderson', 0.175), ('shorter', 0.175), ('height', 0.154), ('lee', 0.144), ('philippe', 0.121), ('phillipe', 0.121), ('picture', 0.12), ('appears', 0.104), ('inches', 0.102), ('artist', 0.095), ('decent', 0.093), ('fairly', 0.07), ('makes', 0.062), ('based', 0.06), ('google', 0.055), ('appear', 0.051), ('according', 0.05), ('perspective', 0.046), ('ever', 0.042), ('comment', 0.041), ('hard', 0.035), ('best', 0.033), ('following', 0.032), ('post', 0.031), ('doesn', 0.03), ('idea', 0.027), ('blog', 0.027)]
simIndex simValue blogId blogTitle
same-blog 1 1.0 2250 andrew gelman stats-2014-03-16-“I have no idea who Catalina Garcia is, but she makes a decent ruler”
Introduction: Best blog comment ever , following up on our post, How tall is Jon Lee Anderson?: Based on this picture: http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2235/1640569735_05337bb974.jpg he appears to be fairly tall. But the perspective makes it hard to judge. Based on this picture: http://www.catalinagarcia.com/cata/Libraries/BLOG_Images/Cata_w_Jon_Lee_Anderson.sflb.ashx he appears to be about 9-10 inches taller than Catalina Garcia. But how tall is Catalina Garcia? Not that tall – she’s shorter than the high-wire artist Phillipe Petit http://www.catalinagarcia.com/cata/Libraries/BLOG_Images/Cata_w_Philippe_Petite.sflb.ashx. And he doesn’t appear to be that tall… about the same height as Claire Danes: http://cdn.theatermania.com/photo-gallery/Petit_Danes_Daldry_2421_4700.jpg – who according to Google is 5′ 6″. So if Jon Lee Anderson is 10″ taller than Catalina Garcia, who is 2″ shorter than Philippe Petit, who is the same height as Claire Danes, then he is 6′ 2″ tall. I have no idea who Catal
Introduction: I just want to share with you the best comment we’ve every had in the nearly ten-year history of this blog. Also it has statistical content! Here’s the story. After seeing an amusing article by Tom Scocca relating how reporter John Lee Anderson called someone as a “little twerp” on twitter: I conjectured that Anderson suffered from “tall person syndrome,” that problem that some people of above-average height have, that they think they’re more important than other people because they literally look down on them. But I had no idea of Anderson’s actual height. Commenter Gary responded with this impressive bit of investigative reporting: Based on this picture: he appears to be fairly tall. But the perspective makes it hard to judge. Based on this picture: he appears to be about 9-10 inches taller than Catalina Garcia. But how tall is Catalina Garcia? Not that tall – she’s shorter than the high-wire artist Phillipe Petit: And he doesn’t appear
3 0.2303046 1759 andrew gelman stats-2013-03-12-How tall is Jon Lee Anderson?
Introduction: The second best thing about this story (from Tom Scocca) is that Anderson spells “Tweets” with a capital T. But the best thing is that Scocca is numerate—he compares numbers on the logarithmic scale: Reminding Lake that he only had 169 Twitter followers was the saddest gambit of all. Jon Lee Anderson has 17,866 followers. And Kim Kardashian has, as I write this, 17,489,892 followers. That is: Jon Lee Anderson is 1/1,000 as important on Twitter, by his own standard, as Kim Kardashian. He is 10 times closer to Mitch Lake than he is to Kim Kardashian. How often do we see a popular journalist who understands orders of magnitude? Good job, Tom Scocca! P.S. Based on his “little twerp” comment, I also wonder if Anderson suffers from tall person syndrome—that’s the problem that some people of above-average height have, that they think they’re more important than other people because they literally look down on them. Don’t get me wrong—I have lots of tall friends who are complete
4 0.14287995 2204 andrew gelman stats-2014-02-09-Keli Liu and Xiao-Li Meng on Simpson’s paradox
Introduction: XL sent me this paper , “A Fruitful Resolution to Simpson’s Paradox via Multi-Resolution Inference.” I told Keli and Xiao-Li that I wasn’t sure I fully understood the paper—as usual, XL is subtle and sophisticated, also I only get about half of his jokes—but I sent along these thoughts: 1. I do not think counterfactuals or potential outcomes are necessary for Simpson’s paradox. I say this because one can set up Simpson’s paradox with variables that cannot be manipulated, or for which manipulations are not directly of interest. 2. Simpson’s paradox is part of a more general issue that regression coefs change if you add more predictors, the flipping of sign is not really necessary. Here’s an example that I use in my teaching that illustrates both points: I can run a regression predicting income from sex and height. I find that the coef of sex is $10,000 (i.e., comparing a man and woman of the same height, on average the man will make $10,000 more) and the coefficient of h
5 0.10710099 1995 andrew gelman stats-2013-08-23-“I mean, what exact buttons do I have to hit?”
Introduction: This American Life reporter Gabriel Rhodes says : This is one of the big differences between Jon and Anthony, between scientist and non-scientist. For Jon, having a year’s worth of work suddenly thrown into question is a normal day at the office. But for Anthony, that’s not normal. And it’s not OK. The time in Jon’s lab was a year of his life, where he felt like Jon kept moving the goal posts. . . . But now, Anthony wants to know, before he starts turning his life upside down again, what will count as proof enough for Jon? How many experiments? Anthony Holland: So let’s say I do three weeks of experiment, and I only concentrate on these leukemia cells. And if I can kill at least 20% every single time, every week, will that do it? Would that be enough? Or do you want to see pancreatic die, or do you want to see—I mean, what exact buttons do I have to hit? This captures a big problem with the research enterprise, as I see it. There’s this attitude that if you can reach som
6 0.10487518 1380 andrew gelman stats-2012-06-15-Coaching, teaching, and writing
7 0.091341652 303 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-28-“Genomics” vs. genetics
8 0.084012225 137 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-10-Cost of communicating numbers
9 0.078376934 2314 andrew gelman stats-2014-05-01-Heller, Heller, and Gorfine on univariate and multivariate information measures
10 0.059265397 1904 andrew gelman stats-2013-06-18-Job opening! Come work with us!
11 0.058063183 1049 andrew gelman stats-2011-12-09-Today in the sister blog
12 0.057324227 1544 andrew gelman stats-2012-10-22-Is it meaningful to talk about a probability of “65.7%” that Obama will win the election?
13 0.054662939 1630 andrew gelman stats-2012-12-18-Postdoc positions at Microsoft Research – NYC
14 0.053658165 1086 andrew gelman stats-2011-12-27-The most dangerous jobs in America
15 0.052393291 518 andrew gelman stats-2011-01-15-Regression discontinuity designs: looking for the keys under the lamppost?
16 0.050452814 2199 andrew gelman stats-2014-02-04-Widening the goalposts in medical trials
18 0.046736047 1924 andrew gelman stats-2013-07-03-Kuhn, 1-f noise, and the fractal nature of scientific revolutions
19 0.044916715 1175 andrew gelman stats-2012-02-19-Factual – a new place to find data
20 0.044151586 1982 andrew gelman stats-2013-08-15-Blaming scientific fraud on the Kuhnians
topicId topicWeight
[(0, 0.035), (1, -0.016), (2, -0.007), (3, -0.001), (4, 0.008), (5, -0.003), (6, -0.004), (7, -0.02), (8, 0.016), (9, 0.006), (10, -0.012), (11, -0.013), (12, 0.031), (13, -0.025), (14, -0.004), (15, 0.035), (16, -0.003), (17, -0.013), (18, -0.004), (19, -0.014), (20, 0.021), (21, -0.025), (22, 0.01), (23, -0.009), (24, 0.004), (25, 0.002), (26, 0.005), (27, 0.012), (28, -0.02), (29, -0.007), (30, 0.002), (31, 0.047), (32, 0.018), (33, 0.028), (34, 0.005), (35, -0.033), (36, -0.002), (37, 0.024), (38, -0.037), (39, -0.05), (40, 0.029), (41, -0.067), (42, -0.006), (43, 0.054), (44, -0.066), (45, 0.02), (46, 0.034), (47, -0.009), (48, -0.01), (49, -0.009)]
simIndex simValue blogId blogTitle
same-blog 1 0.94964653 2250 andrew gelman stats-2014-03-16-“I have no idea who Catalina Garcia is, but she makes a decent ruler”
Introduction: Best blog comment ever , following up on our post, How tall is Jon Lee Anderson?: Based on this picture: http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2235/1640569735_05337bb974.jpg he appears to be fairly tall. But the perspective makes it hard to judge. Based on this picture: http://www.catalinagarcia.com/cata/Libraries/BLOG_Images/Cata_w_Jon_Lee_Anderson.sflb.ashx he appears to be about 9-10 inches taller than Catalina Garcia. But how tall is Catalina Garcia? Not that tall – she’s shorter than the high-wire artist Phillipe Petit http://www.catalinagarcia.com/cata/Libraries/BLOG_Images/Cata_w_Philippe_Petite.sflb.ashx. And he doesn’t appear to be that tall… about the same height as Claire Danes: http://cdn.theatermania.com/photo-gallery/Petit_Danes_Daldry_2421_4700.jpg – who according to Google is 5′ 6″. So if Jon Lee Anderson is 10″ taller than Catalina Garcia, who is 2″ shorter than Philippe Petit, who is the same height as Claire Danes, then he is 6′ 2″ tall. I have no idea who Catal
Introduction: I just want to share with you the best comment we’ve every had in the nearly ten-year history of this blog. Also it has statistical content! Here’s the story. After seeing an amusing article by Tom Scocca relating how reporter John Lee Anderson called someone as a “little twerp” on twitter: I conjectured that Anderson suffered from “tall person syndrome,” that problem that some people of above-average height have, that they think they’re more important than other people because they literally look down on them. But I had no idea of Anderson’s actual height. Commenter Gary responded with this impressive bit of investigative reporting: Based on this picture: he appears to be fairly tall. But the perspective makes it hard to judge. Based on this picture: he appears to be about 9-10 inches taller than Catalina Garcia. But how tall is Catalina Garcia? Not that tall – she’s shorter than the high-wire artist Phillipe Petit: And he doesn’t appear
3 0.55463547 1759 andrew gelman stats-2013-03-12-How tall is Jon Lee Anderson?
Introduction: The second best thing about this story (from Tom Scocca) is that Anderson spells “Tweets” with a capital T. But the best thing is that Scocca is numerate—he compares numbers on the logarithmic scale: Reminding Lake that he only had 169 Twitter followers was the saddest gambit of all. Jon Lee Anderson has 17,866 followers. And Kim Kardashian has, as I write this, 17,489,892 followers. That is: Jon Lee Anderson is 1/1,000 as important on Twitter, by his own standard, as Kim Kardashian. He is 10 times closer to Mitch Lake than he is to Kim Kardashian. How often do we see a popular journalist who understands orders of magnitude? Good job, Tom Scocca! P.S. Based on his “little twerp” comment, I also wonder if Anderson suffers from tall person syndrome—that’s the problem that some people of above-average height have, that they think they’re more important than other people because they literally look down on them. Don’t get me wrong—I have lots of tall friends who are complete
4 0.47154957 157 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-21-Roller coasters, charity, profit, hmmm
Introduction: Dan Kahan writes: Here is a very interesting article form Science that reports result of experiment that looked at whether people bought a product (picture of themselves screaming or vomiting on roller coaster) or paid more for it when told “1/2 to charity.” Answer was “buy more” but “pay lots less” than when alternative was fixed price w/ or w/o charity; and “buy more” & “pay more” if consumer could name own price & 1/2 went to charity than if none went to charity. Pretty interesting. But . . . What’s odd, I [Kahan] think, is the measure used to report the result. The paper (written by some really amazingly good social psychologists; I know this from other studies) goes on & on, w/ figures & tables, about how the amusement park’s “revenue,” “revenue per ride” & “profit” went up by large amount when it used “name your own price & 1/2 to charity.” Yet that result is dominated by random effects — the marginal cost & volume of sales are peculiar to the product being sold &
5 0.44868624 301 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-28-Correlation, prediction, variation, etc.
Introduction: Hamdan Azhar writes: I [Azhar] write with a question about language in the context of statistics. Consider the three statements below. a) Y is significantly associated (correlated) with X; b) knowledge of X allows us to account for __% of the variance in Y; c) Y can be predicted to a significant extent given knowledge of X. To what extent are these statements equivalent? Much of the (non-statistical) scientific literature doesn’t seem to distinguish between these notions. Is this just about semantics — or are there meaningful differences here, particularly between b and c? Consider a framework where X constitutes a predictor space of p variables (x1,…,xp). We wish to generate a linear combination of these variables to yield a score that optimally correlates with Y. Can we substitute the word “predicts” for “optimally correlates with” in this context? One can argue that “correlating” or “accounting for variance” suggests that we are trying to maximize goodness-of-fit (i
6 0.43671128 763 andrew gelman stats-2011-06-13-Inventor of Connect Four dies at 91
7 0.43351623 1559 andrew gelman stats-2012-11-02-The blog is back
8 0.43051738 2199 andrew gelman stats-2014-02-04-Widening the goalposts in medical trials
9 0.4298211 322 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-06-More on the differences between drugs and medical devices
10 0.40483186 822 andrew gelman stats-2011-07-26-Any good articles on the use of error bars?
11 0.40262654 979 andrew gelman stats-2011-10-29-Bayesian inference for the parameter of a uniform distribution
12 0.40045094 343 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-15-?
13 0.3982231 1882 andrew gelman stats-2013-06-03-The statistical properties of smart chains (and referral chains more generally)
14 0.39607871 1761 andrew gelman stats-2013-03-13-Lame Statistics Patents
15 0.39204118 2324 andrew gelman stats-2014-05-07-Once more on nonparametric measures of mutual information
16 0.38919431 1530 andrew gelman stats-2012-10-11-Migrating your blog from Movable Type to WordPress
17 0.38821355 1596 andrew gelman stats-2012-11-29-More consulting experiences, this time in computational linguistics
18 0.38665062 923 andrew gelman stats-2011-09-24-What is the normal range of values in a medical test?
19 0.38584569 668 andrew gelman stats-2011-04-19-The free cup and the extra dollar: A speculation in philosophy
20 0.38483447 2015 andrew gelman stats-2013-09-10-The ethics of lying, cheating, and stealing with data: A case study
topicId topicWeight
[(16, 0.038), (31, 0.041), (81, 0.687), (99, 0.063)]
simIndex simValue blogId blogTitle
same-blog 1 0.97961998 2250 andrew gelman stats-2014-03-16-“I have no idea who Catalina Garcia is, but she makes a decent ruler”
Introduction: Best blog comment ever , following up on our post, How tall is Jon Lee Anderson?: Based on this picture: http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2235/1640569735_05337bb974.jpg he appears to be fairly tall. But the perspective makes it hard to judge. Based on this picture: http://www.catalinagarcia.com/cata/Libraries/BLOG_Images/Cata_w_Jon_Lee_Anderson.sflb.ashx he appears to be about 9-10 inches taller than Catalina Garcia. But how tall is Catalina Garcia? Not that tall – she’s shorter than the high-wire artist Phillipe Petit http://www.catalinagarcia.com/cata/Libraries/BLOG_Images/Cata_w_Philippe_Petite.sflb.ashx. And he doesn’t appear to be that tall… about the same height as Claire Danes: http://cdn.theatermania.com/photo-gallery/Petit_Danes_Daldry_2421_4700.jpg – who according to Google is 5′ 6″. So if Jon Lee Anderson is 10″ taller than Catalina Garcia, who is 2″ shorter than Philippe Petit, who is the same height as Claire Danes, then he is 6′ 2″ tall. I have no idea who Catal
2 0.78092515 1057 andrew gelman stats-2011-12-14-Hey—I didn’t know that!
Introduction: From Wikipedia (via Jay Livingston ): Newsweek sells only about 40,000 newsstand copies compared with 1.5 million subscriptions. (Both figures are substantially lower than they were a decade ago.) The figures for Time are about double those of Newsweek, but the ratio of newsstand sales to subscriptions is about the same. I guess I’m not surprised that most of the sales are from subscriptions, but I’m surprised the fraction is so close to 100%.
Introduction: I just want to share with you the best comment we’ve every had in the nearly ten-year history of this blog. Also it has statistical content! Here’s the story. After seeing an amusing article by Tom Scocca relating how reporter John Lee Anderson called someone as a “little twerp” on twitter: I conjectured that Anderson suffered from “tall person syndrome,” that problem that some people of above-average height have, that they think they’re more important than other people because they literally look down on them. But I had no idea of Anderson’s actual height. Commenter Gary responded with this impressive bit of investigative reporting: Based on this picture: he appears to be fairly tall. But the perspective makes it hard to judge. Based on this picture: he appears to be about 9-10 inches taller than Catalina Garcia. But how tall is Catalina Garcia? Not that tall – she’s shorter than the high-wire artist Phillipe Petit: And he doesn’t appear
Introduction: Elsewhere: 1. They asked me to write about my “favorite election- or campaign-related movie, novel, or TV show” (Salon) 2. The shopping period is over; the time for buying has begun (NYT) 3. If anybody’s gonna be criticizing my tax plan, I want it to be this guy (Monkey Cage) 4. The 4 key qualifications to be a great president; unfortunately George W. Bush satisfies all four, and Ronald Reagan doesn’t match any of them (Monkey Cage) 5. The politics of eyeliner (Monkey Cage)
5 0.64475167 915 andrew gelman stats-2011-09-17-(Worst) graph of the year
Introduction: This (forwarded to me from Jeff, from a powerpoint by Willam Gawthrop) wins not on form but on content: Really this graph should stand alone but it’s so wonderful that I can’t resist pointing out a few things: - The gap between 610 and 622 A.D. seems to be about the same as the previous 600 years, and only a little less than the 1400 years before that. - “Pious and devout” Jews are portrayed as having steadily increased in nonviolence up to the present day. Been to Israel lately? - I assume the line labeled “Bible” is referring to Christians? I’m sort of amazed to see pious and devout Christians listed as being maximally violent at the beginning. Huh? I thought Christ was supposed to be a nonviolent, mellow dude. The line starts at 3 B.C., implying that baby Jesus was at the extreme of violence. Gong forward, we can learn from the graph that pious and devout Christians in 1492 or 1618, say, were much more peaceful than Jesus and his crew. - Most amusingly g
6 0.51056015 552 andrew gelman stats-2011-02-03-Model Makers’ Hippocratic Oath
7 0.44230866 1632 andrew gelman stats-2012-12-20-Who exactly are those silly academics who aren’t as smart as a Vegas bookie?
8 0.42028704 1033 andrew gelman stats-2011-11-28-Greece to head statistician: Tell the truth, go to jail
10 0.38390249 484 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-24-Foreign language skills as an intrinsic good; also, beware the tyranny of measurement
11 0.35344404 1705 andrew gelman stats-2013-02-04-Recently in the sister blog
12 0.3484211 1962 andrew gelman stats-2013-07-30-The Roy causal model?
13 0.34582204 1222 andrew gelman stats-2012-03-20-5 books book
14 0.3345511 1321 andrew gelman stats-2012-05-15-A statistical research project: Weeding out the fraudulent citations
15 0.32286179 1759 andrew gelman stats-2013-03-12-How tall is Jon Lee Anderson?
16 0.31156775 556 andrew gelman stats-2011-02-04-Patterns
17 0.28686509 858 andrew gelman stats-2011-08-17-Jumping off the edge of the world
18 0.28021383 2249 andrew gelman stats-2014-03-15-Recently in the sister blog
19 0.26407453 658 andrew gelman stats-2011-04-11-Statistics in high schools: Towards more accessible conceptions of statistical inference
20 0.24434291 442 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-01-bayesglm in Stata?