andrew_gelman_stats andrew_gelman_stats-2013 andrew_gelman_stats-2013-2015 knowledge-graph by maker-knowledge-mining
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Introduction: I’ve been following with mild interest the recent news stories on the lawbreaking at the Steven A. Cohen hedge fund, for the silly reason that I gave a paid lecture for them a few years ago. I wasn’t thinking too hard about whether they would be using my wonderful statistical ideas to be more effective at insider trading . . . Recently Paul Alper sent me an email pointing out that one of the lawbreakers involved is named Gilman—perhaps he’s related to me? Everyone is related to everyone else but I don’t know my relation to this particular guy. I actually have an aunt whose last name is Gilman. Here’s how it happened. A few years after my father was born (but before the birth of his sister), my grandfather changed his name from Gelman to Gilman. The story was that he was tired of people always calling him Gilman so he just changed his name. I’d call that a true commitment to the descriptive approach to linguistics. On the minus side, he gave my father’s older sister Luther
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1 I’ve been following with mild interest the recent news stories on the lawbreaking at the Steven A. [sent-1, score-0.109]
2 Cohen hedge fund, for the silly reason that I gave a paid lecture for them a few years ago. [sent-2, score-0.54]
3 I wasn’t thinking too hard about whether they would be using my wonderful statistical ideas to be more effective at insider trading . [sent-3, score-0.618]
4 Recently Paul Alper sent me an email pointing out that one of the lawbreakers involved is named Gilman—perhaps he’s related to me? [sent-6, score-0.275]
5 Everyone is related to everyone else but I don’t know my relation to this particular guy. [sent-7, score-0.315]
6 I actually have an aunt whose last name is Gilman. [sent-8, score-0.313]
7 A few years after my father was born (but before the birth of his sister), my grandfather changed his name from Gelman to Gilman. [sent-10, score-0.862]
8 The story was that he was tired of people always calling him Gilman so he just changed his name. [sent-11, score-0.419]
9 I’d call that a true commitment to the descriptive approach to linguistics. [sent-12, score-0.2]
10 On the minus side, he gave my father’s older sister Lutheria, middle name Burbank (after the famous agriculturalist). [sent-13, score-0.737]
11 Getting back to the hedge fund scandal, Alper writes: The article is fascinating on many levels: clinical trials, insider trading, failings of the medical profession, pernicious influence of money, need for recognition, mistakes of the elderly. [sent-15, score-1.37]
12 Murray Gell-Mann is probably getting $258,000 a year too, but I think he’s worth it. [sent-17, score-0.09]
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Introduction: I’ve been following with mild interest the recent news stories on the lawbreaking at the Steven A. Cohen hedge fund, for the silly reason that I gave a paid lecture for them a few years ago. I wasn’t thinking too hard about whether they would be using my wonderful statistical ideas to be more effective at insider trading . . . Recently Paul Alper sent me an email pointing out that one of the lawbreakers involved is named Gilman—perhaps he’s related to me? Everyone is related to everyone else but I don’t know my relation to this particular guy. I actually have an aunt whose last name is Gilman. Here’s how it happened. A few years after my father was born (but before the birth of his sister), my grandfather changed his name from Gelman to Gilman. The story was that he was tired of people always calling him Gilman so he just changed his name. I’d call that a true commitment to the descriptive approach to linguistics. On the minus side, he gave my father’s older sister Luther
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Introduction: Felix Salmon relates the story of an economics Nobel Prize winner getting paid by a hedge fund. It would all seems pretty silly—sort of like Coca-Cola featuring Michael Jordan in their ads—except that hedge funds are disreputable nowadays and so it seems vaguely sleazy for a scholar to trade on his academic reputation to make free money in this way. It falls roughly in the same category as that notorious b-school prof in Inside Job who got $125K for writing a b.s. report about the financial stability of Iceland—and then, when they came back to him later and asked how he could’ve written it, he basically said: Hey, I don’t know anything about Iceland, I was just taking their money! That said, if a hedge fund offered me $125K to sit on their board, I’d probably take it! It’s hard to turn down free money. Or maybe not, I don’t really know. So far, when companies have paid me $, it’s been to do something for them, to consult or give a short course. I’d like to think that if
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Introduction: Paul Alper writes: Hi Andrew (or Andy or even Gelman [17 of them]): Go to this link and have some fun with (useless? powerful?) data mining. As the authors say, it is addictive. Paul (no other way to spell it) Alper [215 of us] I’m reminded of this discussion from 2012, “Michael’s a Republican, Susan’s a Democrat.” As I wrote at the time: It’s no surprise that men give more to Republicans and women to Democrats, or that the average contribution to a Republican has a larger dollar value than the average contribution to a Democrat, nor perhaps should we be surprised that “Tom” splits his support between the two parties while “Thomas” is a strong Republican. Still, it’s fun to see the data. Overall, I think this graph understates contributions to Republicans because it doesn’t include those new super-pacs. But the new tool seems to be based on a different dataset, opinion polls rather than campaign contributions. Playing around a bit, I see a lot less variability
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Introduction: I’ve been following with mild interest the recent news stories on the lawbreaking at the Steven A. Cohen hedge fund, for the silly reason that I gave a paid lecture for them a few years ago. I wasn’t thinking too hard about whether they would be using my wonderful statistical ideas to be more effective at insider trading . . . Recently Paul Alper sent me an email pointing out that one of the lawbreakers involved is named Gilman—perhaps he’s related to me? Everyone is related to everyone else but I don’t know my relation to this particular guy. I actually have an aunt whose last name is Gilman. Here’s how it happened. A few years after my father was born (but before the birth of his sister), my grandfather changed his name from Gelman to Gilman. The story was that he was tired of people always calling him Gilman so he just changed his name. I’d call that a true commitment to the descriptive approach to linguistics. On the minus side, he gave my father’s older sister Luther
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Introduction: I’ve been following with mild interest the recent news stories on the lawbreaking at the Steven A. Cohen hedge fund, for the silly reason that I gave a paid lecture for them a few years ago. I wasn’t thinking too hard about whether they would be using my wonderful statistical ideas to be more effective at insider trading . . . Recently Paul Alper sent me an email pointing out that one of the lawbreakers involved is named Gilman—perhaps he’s related to me? Everyone is related to everyone else but I don’t know my relation to this particular guy. I actually have an aunt whose last name is Gilman. Here’s how it happened. A few years after my father was born (but before the birth of his sister), my grandfather changed his name from Gelman to Gilman. The story was that he was tired of people always calling him Gilman so he just changed his name. I’d call that a true commitment to the descriptive approach to linguistics. On the minus side, he gave my father’s older sister Luther
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Introduction: Paul Pudaite writes in response to my discussion with Bartels regarding effect sizes and measurement error models: You [Gelman] wrote: “I actually think there will be some (non-Gaussian) models for which, as y gets larger, E(x|y) can actually go back toward zero.” I [Pudaite] encountered this phenomenon some time in the ’90s. See this graph which shows the conditional expectation of X given Z, when Z = X + Y and the probability density functions of X and Y are, respectively, exp(-x^2) and 1/(y^2+1) (times appropriate constants). As the magnitude of Z increases, E[X|Z] shrinks to zero. I wasn’t sure it was worth the effort to try to publish a two paragraph paper. I suspect that this is true whenever the tail of one distribution is ‘sufficiently heavy’ with respect to the tail of the other. Hmm, I suppose there might be enough substance in a paper that attempted to characterize this outcome for, say, unimodal symmetric distributions. Maybe someone can do this? I think i
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