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1882 andrew gelman stats-2013-06-03-The statistical properties of smart chains (and referral chains more generally)


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Introduction: Louis Mittel writes: The premise of the column this guy is starting is interesting: Noah Davis interviews a smart person and then interviews the smartest person that smart person knows and so on. It reminded me of you mentioning survey design strategy of asking people about other people, like “How many people do you know named Stuart?” or “How many people do you know that have had an abortion?” Ignoring the interview aspect of what this guy is doing, I think there’s some cool questions about the distribution/path behavior of smartest-person-I-know chains (say, seeded at random). Do they loop? If so, how long do they run before looping, how large are the loops? What parts of the population do the explore? Do you know of anything that’s been done on something like this? My reply: Interesting question. It could be asked of any referral chain, for example asking a sequence of people, “Who’s the tallest person you know?” or “Who’s the best piano player you know” or “Who’


Summary: the most important sentenses genereted by tfidf model

sentIndex sentText sentNum sentScore

1 Louis Mittel writes: The premise of the column this guy is starting is interesting: Noah Davis interviews a smart person and then interviews the smartest person that smart person knows and so on. [sent-1, score-1.994]

2 It reminded me of you mentioning survey design strategy of asking people about other people, like “How many people do you know named Stuart? [sent-2, score-0.455]

3 ” or “How many people do you know that have had an abortion? [sent-3, score-0.19]

4 ” Ignoring the interview aspect of what this guy is doing, I think there’s some cool questions about the distribution/path behavior of smartest-person-I-know chains (say, seeded at random). [sent-4, score-0.473]

5 Do you know of anything that’s been done on something like this? [sent-8, score-0.102]

6 It could be asked of any referral chain, for example asking a sequence of people, “Who’s the tallest person you know? [sent-10, score-0.67]

7 ” or “Who’s the best piano player you know” or “Who’s the weirdest person you know” or whatever. [sent-11, score-0.425]

8 But let’s stick with the “who’s the smartest” chain. [sent-12, score-0.067]

9 In answer to Louis’s first question: yes, such a chain would have to loop, as there’s only a finite number of people. [sent-13, score-0.19]

10 For example, if you ask Stephen Hawking for the smartest person he knows, and then ask that next person, you’ll probably loop back to . [sent-15, score-0.954]

11 The distribution of lengths of the loops, that I have no idea. [sent-19, score-0.158]

12 I’m trying to think how one could measure the distribution of this sort of referral network. [sent-20, score-0.308]

13 He tried to convince me to invest $10,000 to start an ISP in Cambridge. [sent-24, score-0.232]

14 If I had listened to him, I would have been like Zuckerberg or something. [sent-30, score-0.088]

15 The guy is rich, successful, can do anything he wants. [sent-33, score-0.215]

16 One thing that came up in comments is, can people refer to themselves? [sent-38, score-0.088]

17 I assume not, otherwise all chains would eventually dead-end at Stephen Hawking, Scott Adams, and that albedo guy. [sent-39, score-0.218]


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tfidf for this blog:

wordName wordTfidf (topN-words)

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