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552 andrew gelman stats-2011-02-03-Model Makers’ Hippocratic Oath


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Introduction: Emanuel Derman and Paul Wilmott wonder how to get their fellow modelers to give up their fantasy of perfection. In a Business Week article they proposed, not entirely in jest, a model makers’ Hippocratic Oath: I will remember that I didn’t make the world and that it doesn’t satisfy my equations. Though I will use models boldly to estimate value, I will not be overly impressed by mathematics. I will never sacrifice reality for elegance without explaining why I have done so. Nor will I give the people who use my model false comfort about its accuracy. Instead, I will make explicit its assumptions and oversights. I understand that my work may have enormous effects on society and the economy, many of them beyond my comprehension. Found via Abductive Intelligence .


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1 Emanuel Derman and Paul Wilmott wonder how to get their fellow modelers to give up their fantasy of perfection. [sent-1, score-0.805]

2 In a Business Week article they proposed, not entirely in jest, a model makers’ Hippocratic Oath: I will remember that I didn’t make the world and that it doesn’t satisfy my equations. [sent-2, score-0.642]

3 Though I will use models boldly to estimate value, I will not be overly impressed by mathematics. [sent-3, score-0.722]

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5 Nor will I give the people who use my model false comfort about its accuracy. [sent-5, score-0.617]

6 Instead, I will make explicit its assumptions and oversights. [sent-6, score-0.348]

7 I understand that my work may have enormous effects on society and the economy, many of them beyond my comprehension. [sent-7, score-0.583]


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Introduction: Emanuel Derman and Paul Wilmott wonder how to get their fellow modelers to give up their fantasy of perfection. In a Business Week article they proposed, not entirely in jest, a model makers’ Hippocratic Oath: I will remember that I didn’t make the world and that it doesn’t satisfy my equations. Though I will use models boldly to estimate value, I will not be overly impressed by mathematics. I will never sacrifice reality for elegance without explaining why I have done so. Nor will I give the people who use my model false comfort about its accuracy. Instead, I will make explicit its assumptions and oversights. I understand that my work may have enormous effects on society and the economy, many of them beyond my comprehension. Found via Abductive Intelligence .

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