andrew_gelman_stats andrew_gelman_stats-2011 andrew_gelman_stats-2011-1049 knowledge-graph by maker-knowledge-mining

1049 andrew gelman stats-2011-12-09-Today in the sister blog


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Introduction: Everybody hates Jon Voter decision making with third party candidates Cognitive Factors in Bilingual Children’s Pragmatic Language Skills


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Introduction: Everybody hates Jon Voter decision making with third party candidates Cognitive Factors in Bilingual Children’s Pragmatic Language Skills

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Introduction: This American Life reporter Gabriel Rhodes says : This is one of the big differences between Jon and Anthony, between scientist and non-scientist. For Jon, having a year’s worth of work suddenly thrown into question is a normal day at the office. But for Anthony, that’s not normal. And it’s not OK. The time in Jon’s lab was a year of his life, where he felt like Jon kept moving the goal posts. . . . But now, Anthony wants to know, before he starts turning his life upside down again, what will count as proof enough for Jon? How many experiments? Anthony Holland: So let’s say I do three weeks of experiment, and I only concentrate on these leukemia cells. And if I can kill at least 20% every single time, every week, will that do it? Would that be enough? Or do you want to see pancreatic die, or do you want to see—I mean, what exact buttons do I have to hit? This captures a big problem with the research enterprise, as I see it. There’s this attitude that if you can reach som

3 0.10091723 485 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-25-Unlogging

Introduction: Catherine Bueker writes: I [Bueker] am analyzing the effect of various contextual factors on the voter turnout of naturalized Latino citizens. I have included the natural log of the number of Spanish Language ads run in each state during the election cycle to predict voter turnout. I now want to calculate the predicted probabilities of turnout for those in states with 0 ads, 500 ads, 1000 ads, etc. The problem is that I do not know how to handle the beta coefficient of the LN(Spanish language ads). Is there someway to “unlog” the coefficient? My reply: Calculate these probabilities for specific values of predictors, then graph the predictions of interest. Also, you can average over the other inputs in your model to get summaries. See this article with Pardoe for further discussion.

4 0.094521843 926 andrew gelman stats-2011-09-26-NYC

Introduction: Our downstairs neighbor hates us. She looks away from us when we see them on the street, if we’re coming into the building at the same time she doesn’t hold open the door, and if we’re in the elevator when it stops on her floor, she refuses to get on. On the other hand, if you’re a sociology professor in Chicago, one of your colleagues might try to run you over in a parking lot. So I guess I’m getting off easy.

5 0.092663668 520 andrew gelman stats-2011-01-17-R Advertised

Introduction: The R language is definitely going mainstream:

6 0.09170533 710 andrew gelman stats-2011-05-14-Missed Friday the 13th Zombie Plot Update

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12 0.079169482 1566 andrew gelman stats-2012-11-07-A question about voting systems—unrelated to U.S. elections!

13 0.07529553 656 andrew gelman stats-2011-04-11-Jonathan Chait and I agree about the importance of the fundamentals in determining presidential elections

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2 0.58418745 369 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-25-Misunderstanding of divided government

Introduction: Shankar Vedantam writes : Americans distrust the GOP. So why are they voting for it? . . . Gallup tells us that 71 percent of all Americans blame Republican policies for the bad economy, while only 48 percent blame the Obama administration. . . . while disapproval of congressional Democrats stands at 61 percent, disapproval of congressional Republicans stands at 67 percent. [But] Republicans are heavily tipped to wrest control of one or both houses of Congress from the Democrats in the upcoming midterms. Hey! I know the answer to that one. As I wrote in early September: Those 10% or so of voters who plan to vote Republican–even while thinking that the Democrats will do a better job–are not necessarily being so unreasonable. The Democrats control the presidency and both houses of Congress, and so it’s a completely reasonable stance to prefer them to the Republicans yet still think they’ve gone too far and need a check on their power. But Vendatam thinks this expla

3 0.56925219 1000 andrew gelman stats-2011-11-10-Forecasting 2012: How much does ideology matter?

Introduction: Brendan Nyhan and Jacob Montgomery talk sense here . I am perhaps too influenced by Steven Rosenstone’s 1983 book, Forecasting Presidential Elections, which is the first thing I read on the topic. In any case, I agree with Nyhan and Montgomery that the difference in vote, comparing a centrist candidate to an extreme candidate, is probably on the order of 1-2%, not the 4% that has been posited by some. Among other things, ideological differences between candidates of the same party might seem big in the primaries, but then when the general election comes along, party ID becomes more important. I also disagree with the model in which presidential elections are like votes for high school prom king .

4 0.54982924 1027 andrew gelman stats-2011-11-25-Note to student journalists: Google is your friend

Introduction: A student journalist called me with some questions about when the U.S. would have a female president. At one point she asked if there were any surveys of whether people would vote for a woman. I suggested she try Google. I was by my computer anyway so typed “what percentage of americans would vote for a woman president” (without the quotation marks), and the very first hit was this from Gallup, from 2007: The Feb. 9-11, 2007, poll asked Americans whether they would vote for “a generally well-qualified” presidential candidate nominated by their party with each of the following characteristics: Jewish, Catholic, Mormon, an atheist, a woman, black, Hispanic, homosexual, 72 years of age, and someone married for the third time. Between now and the 2008 political conventions, there will be discussion about the qualifications of presidential candidates — their education, age, religion, race, and so on. If your party nominated a generally well-qualified person for president who happene

5 0.54492849 2194 andrew gelman stats-2014-02-01-Recently in the sister blog

Introduction: Are we becoming more tolerant of nepotism? Republicans have a 54 percent chance of taking the Senate The denominator fallacy rears its ugly head How better educated whites are driving political polarization Controversial claims about marriage promotion break the statistical rules of evidence The importance of knowing a dodo is a bird

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2 0.85756022 188 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-06-Fake newspaper headlines

Introduction: I used this convenient site to create some images for a talk I’m preparing. (The competing headlines: “Beautiful parents have more daughters” vs. “No compelling evidence that beautiful parents are more or less likely to have daughters.” The latter gets cut off at “No compelling evidence that,” which actually works pretty well to demonstrate the sort of dull headline that would result if newspapers were to publish null results.)

3 0.80864584 1192 andrew gelman stats-2012-03-02-These people totally don’t know what Chance magazine is all about

Introduction: I received the following unsolicited email, subject line “Chance Magazine – Comedy Showcase”: Hi Andrew, Hope you’re doing well. I’m writing to let you know that we will be putting on an industry showcase at the brand new Laughing Devil Comedy Club (4738 Vernon Blvd. Long Island City) on Thursday, February 9th at 8:00 PM. If you’re unfamiliar, it’s one stop on the 7 train from Grand Central. Following the showcase, the club will stay open for an industry mingle/happy hour with drink specials and all the business card exchanging you can hope for. This showcase will feature 9 of our best: Steve Hofstetter’s latest album hit #1 in the world. He’ll be hosting Collin Moulton (Showtime Half Hour Special), Tony Deyo (Aspen Comedy Festival), Tom Simmons (Winner of the SF International Comedy Festival), Marc Ryan (Host of Mudslingers), Mike Trainor (TruTV), Jessi Campbell (CMT), Danny Browning (Bob & Tom), and Joe Zimmerman (Sirius/XM). I would love for you (and anyone you’d like to

4 0.78558499 680 andrew gelman stats-2011-04-26-My talk at Berkeley on Wednesday

Introduction: Something on Applied Bayesian Statistics April 27, 4:10-5 p.m., 1011 Evans Hall I will deliver one of the following three talks: 1. Of beauty, sex, and power: Statistical challenges in estimating small effects 2. Why we (usually) don’t worry about multiple comparisons 3. Parameterization and Bayesian modeling Whoever shows up on time to the seminar gets to vote, and I’ll give the talk that gets the most votes.

5 0.71596527 536 andrew gelman stats-2011-01-24-Trends in partisanship by state

Introduction: Matthew Yglesias discusses how West Virginia used to be a Democratic state but is now solidly Republican. I thought it would be helpful to expand this to look at trends since 1948 (rather than just 1988) and all 50 states (rather than just one). This would represent a bit of work, except that I already did it a couple years ago, so here it is (right-click on the image to see the whole thing): I cheated a bit to get reasonable-looking groupings, for example putting Indiana in the Border South rather than Midwest, and putting Alaska in Mountain West and Hawaii in West Coast. Also, it would help to distinguish states by color (to be able to disentangle New Jersey and Delaware, for example) but we didn’t do this because the book is mostly black and white. In any case, the picture makes it clear that there have been strong regional trends all over during the past sixty years. P.S. My graph comes from Red State Blue State so no 2008 data, but 2008 was pretty much a shift

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