andrew_gelman_stats andrew_gelman_stats-2013 andrew_gelman_stats-2013-1705 knowledge-graph by maker-knowledge-mining
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Introduction: I remarked that If you’re havin’ electoral problems I feel bad for you son, I got 538 problems but partisan bias ain’t one , and it got such a strong reaction it caused me to rethink my entire approach to political blogging, so I followed up with, What we’ve got here is failure to communicate . In other news, Paul “I’m not Galbraith” disses Larry “I’m not Krugman” Summers and we ask, What is the middle class? Also, Essentialist reasoning about the biological world .
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1 I remarked that If you’re havin’ electoral problems I feel bad for you son, I got 538 problems but partisan bias ain’t one , and it got such a strong reaction it caused me to rethink my entire approach to political blogging, so I followed up with, What we’ve got here is failure to communicate . [sent-1, score-3.499]
2 In other news, Paul “I’m not Galbraith” disses Larry “I’m not Krugman” Summers and we ask, What is the middle class? [sent-2, score-0.146]
3 Also, Essentialist reasoning about the biological world . [sent-3, score-0.442]
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same-blog 1 1.0 1705 andrew gelman stats-2013-02-04-Recently in the sister blog
Introduction: I remarked that If you’re havin’ electoral problems I feel bad for you son, I got 538 problems but partisan bias ain’t one , and it got such a strong reaction it caused me to rethink my entire approach to political blogging, so I followed up with, What we’ve got here is failure to communicate . In other news, Paul “I’m not Galbraith” disses Larry “I’m not Krugman” Summers and we ask, What is the middle class? Also, Essentialist reasoning about the biological world .
2 0.20902148 1936 andrew gelman stats-2013-07-13-Economic policy does not occur in a political vacuum
Introduction: Even if a policymaker is sure of the ideal economic policy, he or she can only implement it with the help of some of the other political players. But I’m saying something different, echoing what I wrote a couple days ago. I thought of this the other day after seeing this recent quote from Paul Krugman ( extracted by Brad DeLong) about Larry “Starbucks” Summers: Summers is . . . indistinguishable from me [Krugman] on macro-policy. And he may be a bit to the left, because he’s even more certain than I am . . . that some extra spending now will actually help us more in fiscal terms. So he published a piece in the Financial Times that was meant to be a big statement about this. But before he got to that, he spend three paragraphs about the importance of dealing with the deficit in the medium term . . . to establish that ‘I am a respectable person; I am not like that rabble-rouser, Krugman.’ . . . Maybe. But, going back to 2009, I still suspect that Summers, or some part of S
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Introduction: Lingsanity! What the sophisticates thought in September 2008 Political opinions of U.S. military The origin of essentialist reasoning
Introduction: That’s ok , Krugman earlier slammed Galbraith. (I wonder if Krugman is as big a fan of “tough choices” now as he was in 1996 .) Given Krugman’s politicization in recent years, I’m surprised he’s so dismissive of the political (rather than technical-economic) nature of Hayek’s influence. (I don’t know if he’s changed his views on Galbraith in recent years.) P.S. Greg Mankiw, in contrast, labels Galbraith and Hayek as “two of the great economists of the 20th century” and writes, “even though their most famous works were written many decades ago, they are still well worth reading today.”
5 0.14068058 713 andrew gelman stats-2011-05-15-1-2 social scientist + 1-2 politician = ???
Introduction: A couple things in this interview by Andrew Goldman of Larry Summers currently irritated me. I’ll give the quotes and then explain my annoyance. 1. Goldman: What would the economy look like now if $1.2 trillion had been spent? Summers: I think it’s an artificial question because there would have been all kinds of problems in actually moving $1.2 trillion dollars through the system — finding enough bridge projects that were ready to go and the like. But the recovery probably would have proceeded more rapidly if the fiscal program had been larger. . . . 2. Goldman: You’re aware of — and were making light of — the fact that you occasionally rub people the wrong way. Summers: In meetings, I’m more focused on trying to figure out what the right answer is than making everybody feel validated. In Washington and at Harvard, that sometimes rubs people the wrong way. OK, now my reactions: 1. Not enough bridge projects, huh? I don’t believe it. We’ve been hearing fo
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same-blog 1 0.97215194 1705 andrew gelman stats-2013-02-04-Recently in the sister blog
Introduction: I remarked that If you’re havin’ electoral problems I feel bad for you son, I got 538 problems but partisan bias ain’t one , and it got such a strong reaction it caused me to rethink my entire approach to political blogging, so I followed up with, What we’ve got here is failure to communicate . In other news, Paul “I’m not Galbraith” disses Larry “I’m not Krugman” Summers and we ask, What is the middle class? Also, Essentialist reasoning about the biological world .
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Introduction: Even if a policymaker is sure of the ideal economic policy, he or she can only implement it with the help of some of the other political players. But I’m saying something different, echoing what I wrote a couple days ago. I thought of this the other day after seeing this recent quote from Paul Krugman ( extracted by Brad DeLong) about Larry “Starbucks” Summers: Summers is . . . indistinguishable from me [Krugman] on macro-policy. And he may be a bit to the left, because he’s even more certain than I am . . . that some extra spending now will actually help us more in fiscal terms. So he published a piece in the Financial Times that was meant to be a big statement about this. But before he got to that, he spend three paragraphs about the importance of dealing with the deficit in the medium term . . . to establish that ‘I am a respectable person; I am not like that rabble-rouser, Krugman.’ . . . Maybe. But, going back to 2009, I still suspect that Summers, or some part of S
3 0.68671119 828 andrew gelman stats-2011-07-28-Thoughts on Groseclose book on media bias
Introduction: Respected political scientist Tim Groseclose just came out with a book, “Left Turn: How Liberal Media Bias Distorts the American Mind.” I was familiar with Groseclose’s article (with Jeffrey Milyo) on media bias that came out several years ago–it was an interesting study but I was not convinced by its central claim that they were measuring an absolute level of bias–and then recently heard about this new book in the context of some intemperate things Groseclose said in a interview on the conservative Fox TV network. Groseclose’s big conclusion is that in the absence of media bias, the average American voter would be positioned at around 25 on a 0-100 scale, where 0 is a right-wing Republican and 100 is a left-wing Democrat. (Seeing as the number line is conventionally drawn from left to right, I think it would make more sense for 0 to represent the left and 100 to be on the right, but I guess it’s too late for him to change now.) Groseclose places the average voter now at around
Introduction: Q. D. Leavis wrote: The answer does seem to be that the academic world, like other worlds, is run by the politicians, and sensitively scrupulous people tend to leave politics to other people, while people with genuine work to do certainly have no time as well as no taste for committee-rigging and the associated techniques. And then of course there are the forces of native stupidity reinforced by that blind hostility to criticism, reform, new ideas and superior ability which is human as well as academic nature. Not that I’ve ever read anything by Mrs. Leavis (or, as the Brits used to write, Mrs Leavis). The above quote is one of the epigraphs to a book by Richard Kostelanetz. Whom I’ve never heard of, except in a footnote in John Rodden’s classic Orwell study, The Politics of Literary Reputation. I’ll have more to say about Orwell in another post, but for now let me return to the above Leavis quote, to which I have three reactions: 1. On a personal level, I’m on Leavis’s s
Introduction: Steven Hayward at the American Enterprise Institute wrote an article , sure to attract the attention of people such as myself, entitled, “The irrelevance of modern political science,” in which he discusses some silly-sounding papers presented at the recent American Political Science Association and then moves to a larger critique of quantitative political science: I [Hayward] have often taken a random article from the American Political Science Review, which resembles a mathematical journal on most of its pages, and asked students if they can envision this method providing the mathematical formula that will deliver peace in the Middle East. Even the dullest students usually grasp the point without difficulty. At the sister blog, John Sides discusses and dismisses Hayward’s arguments, point on that, among other things, political science might very well be useful even if it doesn’t deliver peace in the Middle East. After all, the U.S. Army didn’t deliver peace in the Midd
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same-blog 1 0.93550348 1705 andrew gelman stats-2013-02-04-Recently in the sister blog
Introduction: I remarked that If you’re havin’ electoral problems I feel bad for you son, I got 538 problems but partisan bias ain’t one , and it got such a strong reaction it caused me to rethink my entire approach to political blogging, so I followed up with, What we’ve got here is failure to communicate . In other news, Paul “I’m not Galbraith” disses Larry “I’m not Krugman” Summers and we ask, What is the middle class? Also, Essentialist reasoning about the biological world .
2 0.93441391 915 andrew gelman stats-2011-09-17-(Worst) graph of the year
Introduction: This (forwarded to me from Jeff, from a powerpoint by Willam Gawthrop) wins not on form but on content: Really this graph should stand alone but it’s so wonderful that I can’t resist pointing out a few things: - The gap between 610 and 622 A.D. seems to be about the same as the previous 600 years, and only a little less than the 1400 years before that. - “Pious and devout” Jews are portrayed as having steadily increased in nonviolence up to the present day. Been to Israel lately? - I assume the line labeled “Bible” is referring to Christians? I’m sort of amazed to see pious and devout Christians listed as being maximally violent at the beginning. Huh? I thought Christ was supposed to be a nonviolent, mellow dude. The line starts at 3 B.C., implying that baby Jesus was at the extreme of violence. Gong forward, we can learn from the graph that pious and devout Christians in 1492 or 1618, say, were much more peaceful than Jesus and his crew. - Most amusingly g
3 0.93283015 1632 andrew gelman stats-2012-12-20-Who exactly are those silly academics who aren’t as smart as a Vegas bookie?
Introduction: I get suspicious when I hear unsourced claims that unnamed experts somewhere are making foolish statements. For example, I recently came across this, from a Super Bowl-themed article from 2006 by Stephen Dubner and Steven Levitt: As it happens, there is one betting strategy that will routinely beat a bookie, and you don’t even have to be smart to use it. One of the most undervalued N.F.L. bets is the home underdog — a team favored to lose but playing in its home stadium. If you had bet $5,000 on the home underdog in every N.F.L. game over the past two decades, you would be up about $150,000 by now (a winning rate of roughly 53 percent). So far, so good. I wonder if this pattern still holds. But then Dubner and Levitt continue: This fact has led some academics to conclude that bookmakers simply aren’t very smart. If an academic researcher can find this loophole, shouldn’t a professional bookie be able to? But the fact is most bookies are doing just fine. So could it be
Introduction: I just want to share with you the best comment we’ve every had in the nearly ten-year history of this blog. Also it has statistical content! Here’s the story. After seeing an amusing article by Tom Scocca relating how reporter John Lee Anderson called someone as a “little twerp” on twitter: I conjectured that Anderson suffered from “tall person syndrome,” that problem that some people of above-average height have, that they think they’re more important than other people because they literally look down on them. But I had no idea of Anderson’s actual height. Commenter Gary responded with this impressive bit of investigative reporting: Based on this picture: he appears to be fairly tall. But the perspective makes it hard to judge. Based on this picture: he appears to be about 9-10 inches taller than Catalina Garcia. But how tall is Catalina Garcia? Not that tall – she’s shorter than the high-wire artist Phillipe Petit: And he doesn’t appear
5 0.91344011 552 andrew gelman stats-2011-02-03-Model Makers’ Hippocratic Oath
Introduction: Emanuel Derman and Paul Wilmott wonder how to get their fellow modelers to give up their fantasy of perfection. In a Business Week article they proposed, not entirely in jest, a model makers’ Hippocratic Oath: I will remember that I didn’t make the world and that it doesn’t satisfy my equations. Though I will use models boldly to estimate value, I will not be overly impressed by mathematics. I will never sacrifice reality for elegance without explaining why I have done so. Nor will I give the people who use my model false comfort about its accuracy. Instead, I will make explicit its assumptions and oversights. I understand that my work may have enormous effects on society and the economy, many of them beyond my comprehension. Found via Abductive Intelligence .
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