andrew_gelman_stats andrew_gelman_stats-2013 andrew_gelman_stats-2013-1759 knowledge-graph by maker-knowledge-mining
Source: html
Introduction: The second best thing about this story (from Tom Scocca) is that Anderson spells “Tweets” with a capital T. But the best thing is that Scocca is numerate—he compares numbers on the logarithmic scale: Reminding Lake that he only had 169 Twitter followers was the saddest gambit of all. Jon Lee Anderson has 17,866 followers. And Kim Kardashian has, as I write this, 17,489,892 followers. That is: Jon Lee Anderson is 1/1,000 as important on Twitter, by his own standard, as Kim Kardashian. He is 10 times closer to Mitch Lake than he is to Kim Kardashian. How often do we see a popular journalist who understands orders of magnitude? Good job, Tom Scocca! P.S. Based on his “little twerp” comment, I also wonder if Anderson suffers from tall person syndrome—that’s the problem that some people of above-average height have, that they think they’re more important than other people because they literally look down on them. Don’t get me wrong—I have lots of tall friends who are complete
sentIndex sentText sentNum sentScore
1 The second best thing about this story (from Tom Scocca) is that Anderson spells “Tweets” with a capital T. [sent-1, score-0.216]
2 But the best thing is that Scocca is numerate—he compares numbers on the logarithmic scale: Reminding Lake that he only had 169 Twitter followers was the saddest gambit of all. [sent-2, score-0.403]
3 That is: Jon Lee Anderson is 1/1,000 as important on Twitter, by his own standard, as Kim Kardashian. [sent-5, score-0.058]
4 He is 10 times closer to Mitch Lake than he is to Kim Kardashian. [sent-6, score-0.063]
5 How often do we see a popular journalist who understands orders of magnitude? [sent-7, score-0.315]
6 Based on his “little twerp” comment, I also wonder if Anderson suffers from tall person syndrome—that’s the problem that some people of above-average height have, that they think they’re more important than other people because they literally look down on them. [sent-11, score-0.709]
7 Don’t get me wrong—I have lots of tall friends who are completely reasonable people (I’m of average height myself)—but every once in awhile I see this sort of thing, and it makes me wonder. [sent-12, score-0.491]
8 This is all fun, but I’m not trying slam Anderson. [sent-18, score-0.076]
9 People tweet (or should I say, Tweet) all sorts of things without thinking. [sent-20, score-0.226]
10 On the twitter feed, Anderson hasn’t been very gracious in his follow-up, but, hey, nobody’s perfect. [sent-21, score-0.343]
wordName wordTfidf (topN-words)
[('anderson', 0.501), ('scocca', 0.345), ('kim', 0.311), ('twitter', 0.235), ('lake', 0.217), ('tweet', 0.181), ('jon', 0.175), ('tall', 0.169), ('height', 0.147), ('lee', 0.137), ('tom', 0.134), ('twerp', 0.115), ('gracious', 0.108), ('mitch', 0.108), ('tweets', 0.108), ('reminding', 0.104), ('numerate', 0.104), ('understands', 0.1), ('orders', 0.1), ('followers', 0.095), ('logarithmic', 0.093), ('syndrome', 0.093), ('suffers', 0.093), ('feet', 0.091), ('worker', 0.091), ('feed', 0.085), ('accounts', 0.08), ('speculation', 0.078), ('thing', 0.078), ('slam', 0.076), ('capital', 0.076), ('compares', 0.075), ('literally', 0.073), ('hasn', 0.07), ('journalist', 0.067), ('magnitude', 0.064), ('closer', 0.063), ('people', 0.063), ('best', 0.062), ('important', 0.058), ('perfect', 0.057), ('friends', 0.057), ('awhile', 0.055), ('nobody', 0.051), ('hey', 0.05), ('fun', 0.05), ('scale', 0.049), ('popular', 0.048), ('sorts', 0.045), ('wonder', 0.043)]
simIndex simValue blogId blogTitle
same-blog 1 1.0000001 1759 andrew gelman stats-2013-03-12-How tall is Jon Lee Anderson?
Introduction: The second best thing about this story (from Tom Scocca) is that Anderson spells “Tweets” with a capital T. But the best thing is that Scocca is numerate—he compares numbers on the logarithmic scale: Reminding Lake that he only had 169 Twitter followers was the saddest gambit of all. Jon Lee Anderson has 17,866 followers. And Kim Kardashian has, as I write this, 17,489,892 followers. That is: Jon Lee Anderson is 1/1,000 as important on Twitter, by his own standard, as Kim Kardashian. He is 10 times closer to Mitch Lake than he is to Kim Kardashian. How often do we see a popular journalist who understands orders of magnitude? Good job, Tom Scocca! P.S. Based on his “little twerp” comment, I also wonder if Anderson suffers from tall person syndrome—that’s the problem that some people of above-average height have, that they think they’re more important than other people because they literally look down on them. Don’t get me wrong—I have lots of tall friends who are complete
Introduction: I just want to share with you the best comment we’ve every had in the nearly ten-year history of this blog. Also it has statistical content! Here’s the story. After seeing an amusing article by Tom Scocca relating how reporter John Lee Anderson called someone as a “little twerp” on twitter: I conjectured that Anderson suffered from “tall person syndrome,” that problem that some people of above-average height have, that they think they’re more important than other people because they literally look down on them. But I had no idea of Anderson’s actual height. Commenter Gary responded with this impressive bit of investigative reporting: Based on this picture: he appears to be fairly tall. But the perspective makes it hard to judge. Based on this picture: he appears to be about 9-10 inches taller than Catalina Garcia. But how tall is Catalina Garcia? Not that tall – she’s shorter than the high-wire artist Phillipe Petit: And he doesn’t appear
3 0.2303046 2250 andrew gelman stats-2014-03-16-“I have no idea who Catalina Garcia is, but she makes a decent ruler”
Introduction: Best blog comment ever , following up on our post, How tall is Jon Lee Anderson?: Based on this picture: http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2235/1640569735_05337bb974.jpg he appears to be fairly tall. But the perspective makes it hard to judge. Based on this picture: http://www.catalinagarcia.com/cata/Libraries/BLOG_Images/Cata_w_Jon_Lee_Anderson.sflb.ashx he appears to be about 9-10 inches taller than Catalina Garcia. But how tall is Catalina Garcia? Not that tall – she’s shorter than the high-wire artist Phillipe Petit http://www.catalinagarcia.com/cata/Libraries/BLOG_Images/Cata_w_Philippe_Petite.sflb.ashx. And he doesn’t appear to be that tall… about the same height as Claire Danes: http://cdn.theatermania.com/photo-gallery/Petit_Danes_Daldry_2421_4700.jpg – who according to Google is 5′ 6″. So if Jon Lee Anderson is 10″ taller than Catalina Garcia, who is 2″ shorter than Philippe Petit, who is the same height as Claire Danes, then he is 6′ 2″ tall. I have no idea who Catal
4 0.11059079 1995 andrew gelman stats-2013-08-23-“I mean, what exact buttons do I have to hit?”
Introduction: This American Life reporter Gabriel Rhodes says : This is one of the big differences between Jon and Anthony, between scientist and non-scientist. For Jon, having a year’s worth of work suddenly thrown into question is a normal day at the office. But for Anthony, that’s not normal. And it’s not OK. The time in Jon’s lab was a year of his life, where he felt like Jon kept moving the goal posts. . . . But now, Anthony wants to know, before he starts turning his life upside down again, what will count as proof enough for Jon? How many experiments? Anthony Holland: So let’s say I do three weeks of experiment, and I only concentrate on these leukemia cells. And if I can kill at least 20% every single time, every week, will that do it? Would that be enough? Or do you want to see pancreatic die, or do you want to see—I mean, what exact buttons do I have to hit? This captures a big problem with the research enterprise, as I see it. There’s this attitude that if you can reach som
5 0.11051782 1823 andrew gelman stats-2013-04-24-The Tweets-Votes Curve
Introduction: Fabio Rojas points me to this excellently-titled working paper by Joseph DiGrazia, Karissa McKelvey, Johan Bollen, and himself: Is social media a valid indicator of political behavior? We answer this ques- tion using a random sample of 537,231,508 tweets from August 1 to November 1, 2010 and data from 406 competitive U.S. congressional elections provided by the Federal Election Commission. Our results show that the percentage of Republican-candidate name mentions correlates with the Republican vote margin in the subsequent election. This finding persists even when controlling for incumbency, district partisanship, media coverage of the race, time, and demographic variables such as the district’s racial and gender composi- tion. With over 500 million active users in 2012, Twitter now represents a new frontier for the study of human behavior. This research provides a framework for incorporating this emerging medium into the computational social science toolkit. One charming thing
6 0.10507268 2187 andrew gelman stats-2014-01-26-Twitter sucks, and people are gullible as f…
7 0.10141523 2204 andrew gelman stats-2014-02-09-Keli Liu and Xiao-Li Meng on Simpson’s paradox
8 0.098683327 1084 andrew gelman stats-2011-12-26-Tweeting the Hits?
9 0.094561264 841 andrew gelman stats-2011-08-06-Twitteo killed the bloggio star . . . Not!
10 0.092392482 303 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-28-“Genomics” vs. genetics
11 0.079387814 1626 andrew gelman stats-2012-12-16-The lamest, grudgingest, non-retraction retraction ever
13 0.071543723 2160 andrew gelman stats-2014-01-06-Spam names
14 0.067175813 2094 andrew gelman stats-2013-11-08-A day with the news!
15 0.065134957 148 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-15-“Gender Bias Still Exists in Modern Children’s Literature, Say Centre Researchers”
16 0.062017411 518 andrew gelman stats-2011-01-15-Regression discontinuity designs: looking for the keys under the lamppost?
17 0.060988784 1615 andrew gelman stats-2012-12-10-A defense of Tom Wolfe based on the impossibility of the law of small numbers in network structure
18 0.06027469 35 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-16-Another update on the spam email study
19 0.05949425 1982 andrew gelman stats-2013-08-15-Blaming scientific fraud on the Kuhnians
20 0.059023511 1086 andrew gelman stats-2011-12-27-The most dangerous jobs in America
topicId topicWeight
[(0, 0.08), (1, -0.041), (2, 0.007), (3, 0.005), (4, 0.007), (5, -0.026), (6, 0.029), (7, 0.002), (8, 0.027), (9, -0.005), (10, -0.012), (11, -0.011), (12, 0.02), (13, -0.016), (14, -0.006), (15, 0.014), (16, -0.01), (17, -0.004), (18, 0.019), (19, 0.007), (20, -0.009), (21, -0.037), (22, -0.002), (23, -0.005), (24, -0.011), (25, 0.008), (26, -0.014), (27, 0.015), (28, -0.026), (29, 0.02), (30, 0.004), (31, 0.05), (32, 0.004), (33, 0.002), (34, 0.013), (35, -0.008), (36, 0.004), (37, 0.012), (38, -0.045), (39, -0.041), (40, 0.042), (41, -0.028), (42, -0.031), (43, 0.027), (44, -0.047), (45, 0.018), (46, 0.02), (47, 0.007), (48, 0.024), (49, -0.019)]
simIndex simValue blogId blogTitle
same-blog 1 0.93713427 1759 andrew gelman stats-2013-03-12-How tall is Jon Lee Anderson?
Introduction: The second best thing about this story (from Tom Scocca) is that Anderson spells “Tweets” with a capital T. But the best thing is that Scocca is numerate—he compares numbers on the logarithmic scale: Reminding Lake that he only had 169 Twitter followers was the saddest gambit of all. Jon Lee Anderson has 17,866 followers. And Kim Kardashian has, as I write this, 17,489,892 followers. That is: Jon Lee Anderson is 1/1,000 as important on Twitter, by his own standard, as Kim Kardashian. He is 10 times closer to Mitch Lake than he is to Kim Kardashian. How often do we see a popular journalist who understands orders of magnitude? Good job, Tom Scocca! P.S. Based on his “little twerp” comment, I also wonder if Anderson suffers from tall person syndrome—that’s the problem that some people of above-average height have, that they think they’re more important than other people because they literally look down on them. Don’t get me wrong—I have lots of tall friends who are complete
Introduction: I just want to share with you the best comment we’ve every had in the nearly ten-year history of this blog. Also it has statistical content! Here’s the story. After seeing an amusing article by Tom Scocca relating how reporter John Lee Anderson called someone as a “little twerp” on twitter: I conjectured that Anderson suffered from “tall person syndrome,” that problem that some people of above-average height have, that they think they’re more important than other people because they literally look down on them. But I had no idea of Anderson’s actual height. Commenter Gary responded with this impressive bit of investigative reporting: Based on this picture: he appears to be fairly tall. But the perspective makes it hard to judge. Based on this picture: he appears to be about 9-10 inches taller than Catalina Garcia. But how tall is Catalina Garcia? Not that tall – she’s shorter than the high-wire artist Phillipe Petit: And he doesn’t appear
3 0.7245096 157 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-21-Roller coasters, charity, profit, hmmm
Introduction: Dan Kahan writes: Here is a very interesting article form Science that reports result of experiment that looked at whether people bought a product (picture of themselves screaming or vomiting on roller coaster) or paid more for it when told “1/2 to charity.” Answer was “buy more” but “pay lots less” than when alternative was fixed price w/ or w/o charity; and “buy more” & “pay more” if consumer could name own price & 1/2 went to charity than if none went to charity. Pretty interesting. But . . . What’s odd, I [Kahan] think, is the measure used to report the result. The paper (written by some really amazingly good social psychologists; I know this from other studies) goes on & on, w/ figures & tables, about how the amusement park’s “revenue,” “revenue per ride” & “profit” went up by large amount when it used “name your own price & 1/2 to charity.” Yet that result is dominated by random effects — the marginal cost & volume of sales are peculiar to the product being sold &
4 0.70068657 668 andrew gelman stats-2011-04-19-The free cup and the extra dollar: A speculation in philosophy
Introduction: The following is an essay into a topic I know next to nothing about. As part of our endless discussion of Dilbert and Charlie Sheen, commenter Fraac linked to a blog by philosopher Edouard Machery, who tells a fascinating story : How do we think about the intentional nature of actions? And how do people with an impaired mindreading capacity think about it? Consider the following probes: The Free-Cup Case Joe was feeling quite dehydrated, so he stopped by the local smoothie shop to buy the largest sized drink available. Before ordering, the cashier told him that if he bought a Mega-Sized Smoothie he would get it in a special commemorative cup. Joe replied, ‘I don’t care about a commemorative cup, I just want the biggest smoothie you have.’ Sure enough, Joe received the Mega-Sized Smoothie in a commemorative cup. Did Joe intentionally obtain the commemorative cup? The Extra-Dollar Case Joe was feeling quite dehydrated, so he stopped by the local smoothie shop to buy
5 0.69609857 430 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-25-The von Neumann paradox
Introduction: I, like Steve Hsu , I too would love to read a definitive biography of John von Neumann (or, as we’d say in the U.S., “John Neumann”). I’ve read little things about him in various places such as Stanislaw Ulam’s classic autobiography, and two things I’ve repeatedly noticed are: 1. Neumann comes off as a obnoxious, self-satisfied jerk. He just seems like the kind of guy I wouldn’t like in real life. 2. All these great men seem to really have loved the guy. It’s hard for me to reconcile two impressions above. Of course, lots of people have a good side and a bad side, but what’s striking here is that my impressions of Neumann’s bad side come from the very stories that his friends use to demonstrate how lovable he was! So, yes, I’d like to see the biography–but only if it could resolve this paradox. Also, I don’t know how relevant this is, but Neumann shares one thing with the more-lovable Ulam and the less-lovable Mandelbrot: all had Jewish backgrounds but didn’t seem to
6 0.68951517 111 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-26-Tough love as a style of writing
7 0.6863625 137 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-10-Cost of communicating numbers
8 0.68492395 1882 andrew gelman stats-2013-06-03-The statistical properties of smart chains (and referral chains more generally)
9 0.67924082 2250 andrew gelman stats-2014-03-16-“I have no idea who Catalina Garcia is, but she makes a decent ruler”
10 0.67668563 889 andrew gelman stats-2011-09-04-The acupuncture paradox
11 0.66778505 1231 andrew gelman stats-2012-03-27-Attention pollution
12 0.6650452 1479 andrew gelman stats-2012-09-01-Mothers and Moms
13 0.66249061 168 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-28-Colorless green, and clueless
14 0.66219914 2280 andrew gelman stats-2014-04-03-As the boldest experiment in journalism history, you admit you made a mistake
15 0.65877783 232 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-25-Dodging the diplomats
16 0.65648293 1281 andrew gelman stats-2012-04-25-Dyson’s baffling love of crackpots
17 0.65427893 2347 andrew gelman stats-2014-05-25-Why I decided not to be a physicist
18 0.6538856 2187 andrew gelman stats-2014-01-26-Twitter sucks, and people are gullible as f…
19 0.65388209 582 andrew gelman stats-2011-02-20-Statisticians vs. everybody else
20 0.65322423 1945 andrew gelman stats-2013-07-18-“How big is your chance of dying in an ordinary play?”
topicId topicWeight
[(13, 0.019), (15, 0.024), (16, 0.026), (21, 0.011), (24, 0.056), (25, 0.025), (31, 0.024), (45, 0.015), (46, 0.014), (48, 0.014), (53, 0.012), (63, 0.025), (69, 0.246), (76, 0.015), (81, 0.139), (95, 0.011), (99, 0.214)]
simIndex simValue blogId blogTitle
same-blog 1 0.88324785 1759 andrew gelman stats-2013-03-12-How tall is Jon Lee Anderson?
Introduction: The second best thing about this story (from Tom Scocca) is that Anderson spells “Tweets” with a capital T. But the best thing is that Scocca is numerate—he compares numbers on the logarithmic scale: Reminding Lake that he only had 169 Twitter followers was the saddest gambit of all. Jon Lee Anderson has 17,866 followers. And Kim Kardashian has, as I write this, 17,489,892 followers. That is: Jon Lee Anderson is 1/1,000 as important on Twitter, by his own standard, as Kim Kardashian. He is 10 times closer to Mitch Lake than he is to Kim Kardashian. How often do we see a popular journalist who understands orders of magnitude? Good job, Tom Scocca! P.S. Based on his “little twerp” comment, I also wonder if Anderson suffers from tall person syndrome—that’s the problem that some people of above-average height have, that they think they’re more important than other people because they literally look down on them. Don’t get me wrong—I have lots of tall friends who are complete
2 0.77619052 89 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-16-A historical perspective on financial bailouts
Introduction: Thomas Ferguson and Robert Johnson write : Financial crises are staggeringly costly. Only major wars rival them in the burdens they place on public finances. Taxpayers typically transfer enormous resources to banks, their stockholders, and creditors, while public debt explodes and the economy runs below full employment for years. This paper compares how relatively large, developed countries have handled bailouts over time. It analyzes why some have done better than others at containing costs and protecting taxpayers. The paper argues that political variables – the nature of competition within party systems and voting turnout – help explain why some countries do more than others to limit the moral hazards of bailouts. I know next to nothing about this topic, so I’ll just recommend you click through and read the article yourself. Here’s a bit more: Many recent papers have analyzed financial crises using large data bases filled with cases from all over the world. Our [Ferguson
3 0.77341068 406 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-10-Translating into Votes: The Electoral Impact of Spanish-Language Ballots
Introduction: Dan Hopkins sends along this article : [Hopkins] uses regression discontinuity design to estimate the turnout and election impacts of Spanish-language assistance provided under Section 203 of the Voting Rights Act. Analyses of two different data sets – the Latino National Survey and California 1998 primary election returns – show that Spanish-language assistance increased turnout for citizens who speak little English. The California results also demonstrate that election procedures an influence outcomes, as support for ending bilingual education dropped markedly in heavily Spanish-speaking neighborhoods with Spanish-language assistance. The California analyses find hints of backlash among non-Hispanic white precincts, but not with the same size or certainty. Small changes in election procedures can influence who votes as well as what wins. Beyond the direct relevance of these results, I find this paper interesting as an example of research that is fundamentally quantitative. Th
4 0.75403541 2063 andrew gelman stats-2013-10-16-My talk 19h this evening
Introduction: Modélisation hiérarchique, pooling partiel et l’interrogation de bases de données virtuelles P.S. Here are the slides . I only got through a few of them. I have to remember that when I speak in another language, I go much slower.
Introduction: I just want to share with you the best comment we’ve every had in the nearly ten-year history of this blog. Also it has statistical content! Here’s the story. After seeing an amusing article by Tom Scocca relating how reporter John Lee Anderson called someone as a “little twerp” on twitter: I conjectured that Anderson suffered from “tall person syndrome,” that problem that some people of above-average height have, that they think they’re more important than other people because they literally look down on them. But I had no idea of Anderson’s actual height. Commenter Gary responded with this impressive bit of investigative reporting: Based on this picture: he appears to be fairly tall. But the perspective makes it hard to judge. Based on this picture: he appears to be about 9-10 inches taller than Catalina Garcia. But how tall is Catalina Garcia? Not that tall – she’s shorter than the high-wire artist Phillipe Petit: And he doesn’t appear
6 0.718624 265 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-09-Removing the blindfold: visualising statistical models
7 0.71630347 158 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-22-Tenants and landlords
8 0.71366835 856 andrew gelman stats-2011-08-16-Our new improved blog! Thanks to Cord Blomquist
9 0.70657146 923 andrew gelman stats-2011-09-24-What is the normal range of values in a medical test?
11 0.70328474 552 andrew gelman stats-2011-02-03-Model Makers’ Hippocratic Oath
12 0.70126045 1033 andrew gelman stats-2011-11-28-Greece to head statistician: Tell the truth, go to jail
13 0.70077246 1909 andrew gelman stats-2013-06-21-Job openings at conservative political analytics firm!
14 0.69708472 1632 andrew gelman stats-2012-12-20-Who exactly are those silly academics who aren’t as smart as a Vegas bookie?
16 0.68698156 484 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-24-Foreign language skills as an intrinsic good; also, beware the tyranny of measurement
17 0.6863668 749 andrew gelman stats-2011-06-06-“Sampling: Design and Analysis”: a course for political science graduate students
18 0.68594164 915 andrew gelman stats-2011-09-17-(Worst) graph of the year
19 0.68497628 1962 andrew gelman stats-2013-07-30-The Roy causal model?
20 0.68305826 1769 andrew gelman stats-2013-03-18-Tibshirani announces new research result: A significance test for the lasso