andrew_gelman_stats andrew_gelman_stats-2013 andrew_gelman_stats-2013-1982 knowledge-graph by maker-knowledge-mining
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Introduction: I wouldn’t go that far, but I’ll send along this article by Ahti-Veikko Pietarinen that was sent to me by Lee Sechrest. Those of you who like this sort of thing might like this sort of thing. I neither endorse nor anti-endorse. Or, I should say, I am in sympathy with the author’s general attitude but I have not looked at any of the details.
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2 Those of you who like this sort of thing might like this sort of thing. [sent-2, score-0.904]
3 Or, I should say, I am in sympathy with the author’s general attitude but I have not looked at any of the details. [sent-4, score-0.965]
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same-blog 1 1.0 1982 andrew gelman stats-2013-08-15-Blaming scientific fraud on the Kuhnians
Introduction: I wouldn’t go that far, but I’ll send along this article by Ahti-Veikko Pietarinen that was sent to me by Lee Sechrest. Those of you who like this sort of thing might like this sort of thing. I neither endorse nor anti-endorse. Or, I should say, I am in sympathy with the author’s general attitude but I have not looked at any of the details.
2 0.20200729 676 andrew gelman stats-2011-04-23-The payoff: $650. The odds: 1 in 500,000.
Introduction: Details here .
3 0.13121334 518 andrew gelman stats-2011-01-15-Regression discontinuity designs: looking for the keys under the lamppost?
Introduction: Jas sends along this paper (with Devin Caughey), entitled Regression-Discontinuity Designs and Popular Elections: Implications of Pro-Incumbent Bias in Close U.S. House Races, and writes: The paper shows that regression discontinuity does not work for US House elections. Close House elections are anything but random. It isn’t election recounts or something like that (we collect recount data to show that it isn’t). We have collected much new data to try to hunt down what is going on (e.g., campaign finance data, CQ pre-election forecasts, correct many errors in the Lee dataset). The substantive implications are interesting. We also have a section that compares in details Gelman and King versus the Lee estimand and estimator. I had a few comments: David Lee is not estimating the effect of incumbency; he’s estimating the effect of the incumbent party, which is a completely different thing. The regression discontinuity design is completely inappropriate for estimating the
4 0.11400471 1086 andrew gelman stats-2011-12-27-The most dangerous jobs in America
Introduction: Robin Hanson writes: On the criteria of potential to help people avoid death, this would seem to be among the most important news I’ve ever heard. [In his recent Ph.D. thesis , Ken Lee finds that] death rates depend on job details more than on race, gender, marriage status, rural vs. urban, education, and income combined ! Now for the details. The US Department of Labor has described each of 807 occupations with over 200 detailed features on how jobs are done, skills required, etc.. Lee looked at seven domains of such features, each containing 16 to 57 features, and for each domain Lee did a factor analysis of those features to find the top 2-4 factors. This gave Lee a total of 22 domain factors. Lee also found four overall factors to describe his total set of 225 job and 9 demographic features. (These four factors explain 32%, 15%, 7%, and 4% of total variance.) Lee then tried to use these 26 job factors, along with his other standard predictors (age, race, gender, m
5 0.10957311 1483 andrew gelman stats-2012-09-04-“Bestselling Author Caught Posting Positive Reviews of His Own Work on Amazon”
Introduction: I don’t have much sympathy for well-paid academic plagiarists who are too lazy to do their jobs, but I actually can feel for the author in this story who posted fake positive Amazon reviews of his own books and negative reviews of his competitors’. I mean, sure, this is despicable behavior, I won’t deny that, but it’s gotta be harder and harder to make money writing books. Even a so-called bestselling author must feel under a lot of pressure. I was recently reading a book by Jonathan Coe—he’s just great, and famous, and celebrated, but I doubt he’s getting rich from his books. Not that there’s any reason that he has to get rich, but if even Jonathan Coe isn’t living the high life, that’s not good for authors in general. It’s a far cry from the days in which Updike, Styron, etc., could swagger around like bigshots.
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same-blog 1 0.96913207 1982 andrew gelman stats-2013-08-15-Blaming scientific fraud on the Kuhnians
Introduction: I wouldn’t go that far, but I’ll send along this article by Ahti-Veikko Pietarinen that was sent to me by Lee Sechrest. Those of you who like this sort of thing might like this sort of thing. I neither endorse nor anti-endorse. Or, I should say, I am in sympathy with the author’s general attitude but I have not looked at any of the details.
2 0.79837364 806 andrew gelman stats-2011-07-17-6 links
Introduction: The Browser asked me to recommend 6 articles for their readers. Here’s what I came up with. I really wanted to link to this one but it wouldn’t mean much to people who don’t know New York. I also recommended this (if you’ll forgive my reference to bowling), but I think it was too much of a primary source for their taste.
3 0.79559851 365 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-24-Erving Goffman archives
Introduction: Brayden King points to this page of materials on sociologist Erving Goffman. Whenever I’ve read about Goffman, it always seems to be in conjunction with some story about his bad behavior–in that respect, King’s link above does not disappoint. In the absence of any context, it all seems mysterious to me Once or twice I’ve tried to read passages in books by Goffman but have never manage to get through any of it. (This is not mean as any kind of criticism, it’s just a statement of my lack of knowledge.) I was amused enough by the stories reported by King that I clicked through to the Biographical Materials section of the Goffman page and read a few. I still couldn’t really quite get the point, though, perhaps in part because I only know one of the many people on that list.
4 0.78689367 380 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-29-“Bluntly put . . .”
Introduction: Oof! (if you’ll forgive my reference to bowling) What’s funny to me, though, is the phrase, “she’s not nearly as smart as she seems to think she is.” I mean, doesn’t that describe most people? (Link from here .) P.S. I hate to spell things out, Jeff, but . . . I hope you caught the Douglas Ginsburg reference!
5 0.74513996 859 andrew gelman stats-2011-08-18-Misunderstanding analysis of covariance
Introduction: Jeremy Miles writes: Are you familiar with Miller and Chapman’s (2001) article : Misunderstanding Analysis of Covariance saying that ANCOVA (and therefore, I suppose regression) should not be used when groups differ on a covariate. It has caused a moderate splash in psychology circles. I wondered if you had any thoughts on it. I had not heard of the article so I followed the link . . . ugh! Already on the very first column of the very first page they confuse nonadditivity with nonlinearity. I could probably continue with, “and it gets worse,” but since nobody’s paying me to read this one, I’ll stop reading right there on the first page! I prefer when people point me to good papers to read. . . .
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1 0.97725099 802 andrew gelman stats-2011-07-13-Super Sam Fuld Needs Your Help (with Foul Ball stats)
Introduction: I was pleasantly surprised to have my recreational reading about baseball in the New Yorker interrupted by a digression on statistics. Sam Fuld of the Tampa Bay Rays, was the subjet of a Ben McGrath profile in the 4 July 2011 issue of the New Yorker , in an article titled Super Sam . After quoting a minor-league trainer who described Fuld as “a bit of a geek” (who isn’t these days?), McGrath gets into that lovely New Yorker detail: One could have pointed out the more persuasive and telling examples, such as the fact that in 2005, after his first pro season, with the Class-A Peoria Chiefs, Fuld applied for a fall internship with Stats, Inc., the research firm that supplies broadcasters with much of the data anad analysis that you hear in sports telecasts. After a description of what they had him doing, reviewing footage of games and cataloguing, he said “I thought, They have a stat for everything, but they don’t have any stats regarding foul balls.” Fuld’s
Introduction: Someone passed on to a message from his university library announcing that the journal “Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Computational Statistics” is no longer free. Librarians have to decide what to do, so I thought I’d offer the following consumer guide: Wiley Computational Statistics journal Wikipedia Frequency 6 issues per year Continuously updated Includes articles from Wikipedia? Yes Yes Cites the Wikipedia sources it uses? No Yes Edited by recipient of ASA Founders Award? Yes No Articles are subject to rigorous review? No Yes Errors, when discovered, get fixed? No Yes Number of vertices in n-dimensional hypercube? 2n 2 n Easy access to Brady Bunch trivia? No Yes Cost (North America) $1400-$2800 $0 Cost (UK) £986-£1972 £0 Cost (Europe) €1213-€2426 €0 The choice seems pretty clear to me! It’s funny for the Wiley journal to start charging now
3 0.97048092 173 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-31-Editing and clutch hitting
Introduction: Regarding editing : The only serious editing I’ve ever received has been for my New York Times op-eds and my article in the American Scientist. My book editors have all been nice people, and they’ve helped me with many things (including suggestions of what my priorities should be in communicating with readers)–they’ve been great–but they’ve not given (nor have I expected or asked for) serious editing. Maybe I should’ve asked for it, I don’t know. I’ve had time-wasting experiences with copy editors and a particularly annoying experience with a production editor (who was so difficult that my coauthors and I actually contacted our agent and a lawyer about the possibility of getting out of our contract), but that’s another story. Regarding clutch hitting , Bill James once noted that it’s great when a Bucky Dent hits an unexpected home run, but what’s really special is being able to get the big hit when it’s expected of you. The best players can do their best every time they come t
4 0.96916425 134 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-08-“What do you think about curved lines connecting discrete data-points?”
Introduction: John Keltz writes: What do you think about curved lines connecting discrete data-points? (For example, here .) The problem with the smoothed graph is it seems to imply that something is going on in between the discrete data points, which is false. However, the straight-line version isn’t representing actual events either- it is just helping the eye connect each point. So maybe the curved version is also just helping the eye connect each point, and looks better doing it. In my own work (value-added modeling of achievement test scores) I use straight lines, but I guess I am not too bothered when people use smoothing. I’d appreciate your input. Regular readers will be unsurprised that, yes, I have an opinion on this one, and that this opinion is connected to some more general ideas about statistical graphics. In general I’m not a fan of the curved lines. They’re ok, but I don’t really see the point. I can connect the dots just fine without the curves. The more general id
5 0.96617669 708 andrew gelman stats-2011-05-12-Improvement of 5 MPG: how many more auto deaths?
Introduction: This entry was posted by Phil Price. A colleague is looking at data on car (and SUV and light truck) collisions and casualties. He’s interested in causal relationships. For instance, suppose car manufacturers try to improve gas mileage without decreasing acceleration. The most likely way they will do that is to make cars lighter. But perhaps lighter cars are more dangerous; how many more people will die for each mpg increase in gas mileage? There are a few different data sources, all of them seriously deficient from the standpoint of answering this question. Deaths are very well reported, so if someone dies in an auto accident you can find out what kind of car they were in, what other kinds of cars (if any) were involved in the accident, whether the person was a driver or passenger, and so on. But it’s hard to normalize: OK, I know that N people who were passengers in a particular model of car died in car accidents last year, but I don’t know how many passenger-miles that
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