andrew_gelman_stats andrew_gelman_stats-2013 andrew_gelman_stats-2013-1895 knowledge-graph by maker-knowledge-mining
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Introduction: Tyler Cowen links : “I’m writing this book because we need to think about the future for more than just 140 characters or 15 minutes at a time if we want to make real long-term progress,” Mr. Thiel said in a statement. “’Zero to One’ is about learning from Silicon Valley how to solve hard problems and build great things that have never existed before.” I wonder how Thiel’s previous book turned out?
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1 Tyler Cowen links : “I’m writing this book because we need to think about the future for more than just 140 characters or 15 minutes at a time if we want to make real long-term progress,” Mr. [sent-1, score-1.267]
2 “’Zero to One’ is about learning from Silicon Valley how to solve hard problems and build great things that have never existed before. [sent-3, score-1.104]
3 ” I wonder how Thiel’s previous book turned out? [sent-4, score-0.581]
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same-blog 1 0.99999994 1895 andrew gelman stats-2013-06-12-Peter Thiel is writing another book!
Introduction: Tyler Cowen links : “I’m writing this book because we need to think about the future for more than just 140 characters or 15 minutes at a time if we want to make real long-term progress,” Mr. Thiel said in a statement. “’Zero to One’ is about learning from Silicon Valley how to solve hard problems and build great things that have never existed before.” I wonder how Thiel’s previous book turned out?
2 0.44326466 525 andrew gelman stats-2011-01-19-Thiel update
Introduction: A year or so ago I discussed the reasoning of zillionaire financier Peter Thiel, who seems to believe his own hype and, worse, seems to be able to convince reporters of his infallibility as well. Apparently he “possesses a preternatural ability to spot patterns that others miss.” More recently, Felix Salmon commented on Thiel’s financial misadventures: Peter Thiel’s hedge fund, Clarium Capital, ain’t doing so well. Its assets under management are down 90% from their peak, and total returns from the high point are -65%. Thiel is smart, successful, rich, well-connected, and on top of all that his calls have actually been right . . . None of that, clearly, was enough for Clarium to make money on its trades: the fund was undone by volatility and weakness in risk management. There are a few lessons to learn here. Firstly, just because someone is a Silicon Valley gazillionaire, or any kind of successful entrepreneur for that matter, doesn’t mean they should be trusted with oth
3 0.1188117 1945 andrew gelman stats-2013-07-18-“How big is your chance of dying in an ordinary play?”
Introduction: At first glance, that’s what I thought Tyler Cowen was asking . I assumed he was asking about the characters, not the audience, as watching a play seems like a pretty safe activity (A. Lincoln excepted). Characters in plays die all the time. I wonder what the chance is? Something between 5% and 10%, I’d guess. I’d guess your chance of dying (as a character) in a movie would be higher. On the other hand, movies have lots of extras who just show up and leave; if you count them maybe the risk isn’t so high. Perhaps the right way to do this is to weight people by screen time? P.S. The Mezzanine aside, works of art and literature tend to focus on the dramatic moments of lives, so it makes sense that death will be overrepresented.
4 0.11656899 1994 andrew gelman stats-2013-08-22-“The comment section is open, but I’m not going to read them”
Introduction: That’s Tyler Cowen’s policy . I read almost all the comments here. I’m glad I read them, I think. Over the years, I’ve learned a lot of interesting things from the comments. Sometimes, though, I wish I hadn’t bothered. Cowen gets about 10 times as many comments as I do, so I think in his case it makes sense to just ignore them. If he read (or, even worse, responded to) them, he’d have no time for anything else.
5 0.10644095 1583 andrew gelman stats-2012-11-19-I can’t read this interview with me
Introduction: From Alexandr Grigoryev: “Америка: «красная», «синяя» и «пурпурная».” Apparently my name is Эндрю Гелман. I had no idea that the Voice of America even existed anymore!
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same-blog 1 0.96763247 1895 andrew gelman stats-2013-06-12-Peter Thiel is writing another book!
Introduction: Tyler Cowen links : “I’m writing this book because we need to think about the future for more than just 140 characters or 15 minutes at a time if we want to make real long-term progress,” Mr. Thiel said in a statement. “’Zero to One’ is about learning from Silicon Valley how to solve hard problems and build great things that have never existed before.” I wonder how Thiel’s previous book turned out?
2 0.78572547 1970 andrew gelman stats-2013-08-06-New words of 1917
Introduction: I happened to come across a little book, “Current Glossary: Words Coined Since the War.” Here are some of them: as’pi-rin, n. A white compound used as a drug in the cure of headaches and rheumatism. bob’go, n. A kind of antelope in Africa; its meat is good for food. cat’ta-lo, n. A cross between an American bison and a cow. dart, n. A short, pointed spear-like weapon of steel dropped by airmen in attacks on the enemy. free’lance, n. A rover in literature, a writer not in the employ of one firm. griz’zly bear. A new kind of dance. You get the idea. P.S. Some more literary nostalgia from the archives: Prolefeed 70 Years of Best Sellers More on book sales . . . and reflections on the disappearance of millions of copies of the once-ubiquitous “Alive!”
3 0.78160822 1843 andrew gelman stats-2013-05-05-The New York Times Book of Mathematics
Introduction: This was an good idea: take a bunch of old (and some recent) news articles on developments in mathematics and related ares from the past hundred years. Fun for the math content and historical/nostalgia value. Relive the four-color theorem, Fermat, fractals, and early computing. I have too much of a technical bent to be the ideal reader for this sort of book, but it seems like an excellent gift for a non-technical reader who nonetheless enjoys math. (I assume that such people are out there, just as there are people like me who can’t read music but still enjoy reading about the subject.) The book is organized by topic. My own preference would have been chronological and with more old stuff. I particularly enjoyed the material from many decades ago, such as the news report on one of the early computers. This must have been a fun book to compile.
4 0.76706386 8 andrew gelman stats-2010-04-28-Advice to help the rich get richer
Introduction: Tyler Cowen reviews a recent book, “Lifecyle Investing,” by Ian Ayres and Barry Nalebuff, two professors of management at Yale. The book recommends that young adults take out loans to buy stocks and then hold these stocks for many years to prepare for retirement. What I’m wondering is: What’s the goal of writing this sort of book? The main audience has got to be young adults (and their parents) who are already pretty well fixed, financially. Students at Yale, for example. And the book must be intended for people who are already beyond the standard recommendations of personal-investment books (pay off your credit card debt, don’t waste so much money on restaurant meals and fancy clothes, buy 1 used car instead of 2 new ones, etc). Basically it sounds like they’re talking to people who have a lot of money but want to make sure that they retire rich rather than merely middle-class. I can’t say that I’m morally opposed to helping the rich get richer. After all, I’m not out the
5 0.75984442 2168 andrew gelman stats-2014-01-12-Things that I like that almost nobody else is interested in
Introduction: This post by Jordan Ellenberg (“Stoner represents a certain strain in the mid-century American novel that I really like, and which I don’t think exists in contemporary fiction. Anguish, verbal restraint, weirdness”) reminds me that what I really like is mid-to-late-twentieth-century literary criticism . I read a great book from the 50s, I think it was, by Anthony West (son of Rebecca West and H. G. Wells), who reviewed books for the New Yorker. It was great, and it made me wish that other collections of his reviews had been published (they hadn’t). I’d also love to read collections of Alfred Kazin ‘s reviews (there are some collections, but he published many many others that have never been reprinted) and others of that vintage. I’m pretty sure these hypothetical books wouldn’t sell many copies, though. (I feel lucky, though, that at one point a publisher released a pretty fat collection of Anthony Burgess ‘s book reviews.) It’s actually scary to think that many many more peopl
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1 0.94012964 303 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-28-“Genomics” vs. genetics
Introduction: John Cook and Joseph Delaney point to an article by Yurii Aulchenko et al., who write: 54 loci showing strong statistical evidence for association to human height were described, providing us with potential genomic means of human height prediction. In a population-based study of 5748 people, we find that a 54-loci genomic profile explained 4-6% of the sex- and age-adjusted height variance, and had limited ability to discriminate tall/short people. . . . In a family-based study of 550 people, with both parents having height measurements, we find that the Galtonian mid-parental prediction method explained 40% of the sex- and age-adjusted height variance, and showed high discriminative accuracy. . . . The message is that the simple approach of predicting child’s height using a regression model given parents’ average height performs much better than the method they have based on combining 54 genes. They also find that, if you start with the prediction based on parents’ heigh
2 0.92743063 1626 andrew gelman stats-2012-12-16-The lamest, grudgingest, non-retraction retraction ever
Introduction: In politics we’re familiar with the non-apology apology (well described in Wikipedia as “a statement that has the form of an apology but does not express the expected contrition”). Here’s the scientific equivalent: the non-retraction retraction. Sanjay Srivastava points to an amusing yet barfable story of a pair of researchers who (inadvertently, I assume) made a data coding error and were eventually moved to issue a correction notice, but even then refused to fully admit their error. As Srivastava puts it, the story “ended up with Lew [Goldberg] and colleagues [Kibeom Lee and Michael Ashton] publishing a comment on an erratum – the only time I’ve ever heard of that happening in a scientific journal.” From the comment on the erratum: In their “erratum and addendum,” Anderson and Ones (this issue) explained that we had brought their attention to the “potential” of a “possible” misalignment and described the results computed from re-aligned data as being based on a “post-ho
3 0.91340673 685 andrew gelman stats-2011-04-29-Data mining and allergies
Introduction: With all this data floating around, there are some interesting analyses one can do. I came across “The Association of Tree Pollen Concentration Peaks and Allergy Medication Sales in New York City: 2003-2008″ by Perry Sheffield . There they correlate pollen counts with anti-allergy medicine sales – and indeed find that two days after high pollen counts, the medicine sales are the highest. Of course, it would be interesting to play with the data to see *what* tree is actually causing the sales to increase the most. Perhaps this would help the arborists what trees to plant. At the moment they seem to be following a rather sexist approach to tree planting: Ogren says the city could solve the problem by planting only female trees, which don’t produce pollen like male trees do. City arborists shy away from females because many produce messy – or in the case of ginkgos, smelly – fruit that litters sidewalks. In Ogren’s opinion, that’s a mistake. He says the females only pro
4 0.90459567 1013 andrew gelman stats-2011-11-16-My talk at Math for America on Saturday
Introduction: Here’s what I’ll talk about for 3 hours : Statistics—Inside and Outside the Classroom (1) Of Beauty, Sex, and Power: Statistical Challenges in the Estimation of Small Effects . A silly example of the frequencies of boy and girl babies leads us to some important research involving the meaning of statistical significance. (2) Mathematics, Statistics, and Political Science . We explore the differences between mathematical and statistical thinking, developing the ideas using examples from my own research in political science. (3) Statistics Teaching Activities . For twenty years I have been collecting class-participation demonstrations in statistics and probability. Here are some of my favorites.
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Introduction: Tyler Cowen links : “I’m writing this book because we need to think about the future for more than just 140 characters or 15 minutes at a time if we want to make real long-term progress,” Mr. Thiel said in a statement. “’Zero to One’ is about learning from Silicon Valley how to solve hard problems and build great things that have never existed before.” I wonder how Thiel’s previous book turned out?
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