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Introduction: Culture war: The rules You can only accept capital punishment if you’re willing to have innocent people executed every now and then The politics of America’s increasing economic inequality
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Introduction: Culture war: The rules You can only accept capital punishment if you’re willing to have innocent people executed every now and then The politics of America’s increasing economic inequality
2 0.15890841 990 andrew gelman stats-2011-11-04-At the politics blogs . . .
Introduction: There is no increased inequality, unless you look at the top 1% The revolving door of U.S. politics The redistricting song
3 0.122902 98 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-19-Further thoughts on happiness and life satisfaction research
Introduction: As part of my continuing research project with Grazia and Roberto, I’ve been reading papers on happiness and life satisfaction research. I’ll share with you my thoughts on some of the published work in this area. Alberto Alesina,, Rafael Di Tella, and Robert MacCulloch published a paper in 2004 called “Inequality and happiness: are Europeans and Americans different?”: We study the effect of the level of inequality in society on individual well-being using a total of 123,668 answers to a survey question about “happiness.” We find that individuals have a lower tendency to report themselves happy when inequality is high, even after controlling for individual income, a large set of personal characteristics, and year and country (or, in the case of the US, state) dummies. The effect, however, is more precisely defined statistically in Europe than in the US. In addition, we find striking differences across groups. In Europe, the poor and those on the left of the political spectru
Introduction: From my New York Times blog today, here’s an example of how contemporaneous poll results can be given exactly opposite interpretations. Recently in the New Republic, William Galston shared some recent findings from Gallup: Respondents were asked to categorize three economic objectives as extremely important, very important, somewhat important, or not important. Here’s what they said: Extremely/very important Somewhat/not important Grow and expand the economy 82 18 Increase equality of opportunity for people to get ahead 70 30 Reduce the income and wealth gap between the rich and the poor 46 54 When Gallup asked a sample of Americans in 1998 whether the gap between the rich and the poor was a problem that needed t
5 0.11213751 666 andrew gelman stats-2011-04-18-American Beliefs about Economic Opportunity and Income Inequality
Introduction: Leslie McCall spoke in the sociology department here the other day to discuss changes in attitudes about income inequality as well as changes in attitudes about attitudes about income inequality. (That is, she talked about what survey respondents say, and she talked about what scholars have said about what survey respondents say.) On the plus side, the talk was interesting. On the downside, I had to leave right at the start of the discussion so I didn’t have a chance to ask my questions. So I’m placing them below. I can’t find a copy of McCall’s slides so I’ll link to this recent op-ed she wrote on the topic of “Rising Wealth Inequality: Should We Care?” Her title was “Americans Aren’t Naive,” and she wrote: Understanding what Americans think about rising income inequality has been hampered by three problems. First, polls rarely ask specifically about income inequality. They ask instead about government redistributive polices, such as taxes and welfare, which are not alw
6 0.10628194 362 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-22-A redrawing of the Red-Blue map in November 2010?
8 0.10374832 495 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-31-“Threshold earners” and economic inequality
9 0.096337646 2255 andrew gelman stats-2014-03-19-How Americans vote
10 0.088178694 1663 andrew gelman stats-2013-01-09-The effects of fiscal consolidation
11 0.086810648 1145 andrew gelman stats-2012-01-30-A tax on inequality, or a tax to keep inequality at the current level?
12 0.083553061 1159 andrew gelman stats-2012-02-08-Charles Murray [perhaps] does a Tucker Carlson, provoking me to unleash the usual torrent of graphs
13 0.072149582 478 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-20-More on why “all politics is local” is an outdated slogan
14 0.07202854 1953 andrew gelman stats-2013-07-24-Recently in the sister blog
15 0.070815176 1635 andrew gelman stats-2012-12-22-More Pinker Pinker Pinker
16 0.068856128 475 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-19-All politics are local — not
17 0.068573371 1583 andrew gelman stats-2012-11-19-I can’t read this interview with me
18 0.065762319 2320 andrew gelman stats-2014-05-05-On deck this month
19 0.065295041 2072 andrew gelman stats-2013-10-21-The future (and past) of statistical sciences
20 0.064678244 2331 andrew gelman stats-2014-05-12-On deck this week
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Introduction: Culture war: The rules You can only accept capital punishment if you’re willing to have innocent people executed every now and then The politics of America’s increasing economic inequality
2 0.75233895 1169 andrew gelman stats-2012-02-15-Charles Murray on the new upper class
Introduction: The other day I posted some comments on the voting patterns of rich and poor in the context of Charles Murray’s recent book, “Coming Apart.” My graphs on income and voting are just fine, but I mischaracterized Murray’s statements. So I want to fix that right away. After that I have some thoughts on the book itself. In brief: 1. I was unfair to call him a Tucker Carlson. 2. Murray talks a lot about upper-class liberals. That’s fine but I think his discussion would be improved by also considering upper-class conservatives, given that I see the big culture war occurring within the upper class. 3. Using the case of Joe Paterno as an example, I discuss why Murray’s “preach what you practice” advice could be difficult to carry out in practice. Murray on the top 5% David Frum quoted Murray as writing that the top 5% “tends to be liberal—right? There’s no getting around it. Every way of answering this question produces a yes.” In response, Frum and I both pointed out t
Introduction: Charles Murray wrote a much-discussed new book, “Coming Apart: The State of White America, 1960-2010.” David Frum quotes Murray as writing, in an echo of now-forgotten TV personality Tucker Carlson , that the top 5% of incomes “tends to be liberal—right? There’s no getting around it. Every way of answering this question produces a yes.” [I’ve interjected a “perhaps” into the title of this blog post to indicate that I don’t have the exact Murray quote here so I’m relying on David Frum’s interpretation.] Frum does me the favor of citing Red State Blue State as evidence, and I’d like to back this up with some graphs. Frum writes: Say “top 5%” to Murray, and his imagination conjures up everything he dislikes: coastal liberals listening to NPR in their Lexus hybrid SUVs. He sees that image so intensely that no mere number can force him to remember that the top 5% also includes the evangelical Christian assistant coach of a state university football team. . . . To put it i
4 0.71838915 666 andrew gelman stats-2011-04-18-American Beliefs about Economic Opportunity and Income Inequality
Introduction: Leslie McCall spoke in the sociology department here the other day to discuss changes in attitudes about income inequality as well as changes in attitudes about attitudes about income inequality. (That is, she talked about what survey respondents say, and she talked about what scholars have said about what survey respondents say.) On the plus side, the talk was interesting. On the downside, I had to leave right at the start of the discussion so I didn’t have a chance to ask my questions. So I’m placing them below. I can’t find a copy of McCall’s slides so I’ll link to this recent op-ed she wrote on the topic of “Rising Wealth Inequality: Should We Care?” Her title was “Americans Aren’t Naive,” and she wrote: Understanding what Americans think about rising income inequality has been hampered by three problems. First, polls rarely ask specifically about income inequality. They ask instead about government redistributive polices, such as taxes and welfare, which are not alw
5 0.68338609 201 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-12-Are all rich people now liberals?
Introduction: So asks James Ledbetter in Slate. And the answer is . . . No! Here’s what happened in 2008: OK, that’s how people vote. How bout party identification and ideology? Check these out : (Click on image to see larger version.) And here it is, sliced a different way : Of, if you want to see it in map form, check out this article (with Daniel and Yair). P.S. A skeptic might comment that the above graphs, which are based on national poll data, only break down incomes to the top 5% or so. What about the truly rich. Here are my thoughts on the political attitudes of the super-rich. P.P.S. Ledbetter actually makes some good points in his article, which is about the campaign contributions of rich Americans. The article relies on a recent book by David Callahan, which seems to echo the work of Tom Ferguson (cited in the above-linked blog entry), who’s tracked campaign contributions by industry over many years. I think that Ferguson (and Callahan) a
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8 0.663109 636 andrew gelman stats-2011-03-29-The Conservative States of America
9 0.66276348 1079 andrew gelman stats-2011-12-23-Surveys show Americans are populist class warriors, except when they aren’t
10 0.64416337 1 andrew gelman stats-2010-04-22-Political Belief Networks: Socio-cognitive Heterogeneity in American Public Opinion
11 0.64056945 1587 andrew gelman stats-2012-11-21-Red state blue state, or, states and counties are not persons
13 0.62511629 1325 andrew gelman stats-2012-05-17-More on the difficulty of “preaching what you practice”
16 0.60458142 1635 andrew gelman stats-2012-12-22-More Pinker Pinker Pinker
17 0.59897882 1388 andrew gelman stats-2012-06-22-Americans think economy isn’t so bad in their city but is crappy nationally and globally
18 0.59798878 990 andrew gelman stats-2011-11-04-At the politics blogs . . .
20 0.59577388 456 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-07-The red-state, blue-state war is happening in the upper half of the income distribution
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same-blog 1 0.95631939 1300 andrew gelman stats-2012-05-05-Recently in the sister blog
Introduction: Culture war: The rules You can only accept capital punishment if you’re willing to have innocent people executed every now and then The politics of America’s increasing economic inequality
2 0.90480566 2333 andrew gelman stats-2014-05-13-Personally, I’d rather go with Teragram
Introduction: This one stunned me but perhaps will be no surprise to those of you who are under 30. Laura Wattenberg writes : I live in a state where a baby girl is more likely to be named Margaret than Nevaeh. Let me restate that: I live in the only state where a baby girl is more likely to be named Margaret than Nevaeh. Wow. But I guess you can’t really use the name Teragram for a baby girl, it will make it sound like she’s fat.
3 0.90272731 303 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-28-“Genomics” vs. genetics
Introduction: John Cook and Joseph Delaney point to an article by Yurii Aulchenko et al., who write: 54 loci showing strong statistical evidence for association to human height were described, providing us with potential genomic means of human height prediction. In a population-based study of 5748 people, we find that a 54-loci genomic profile explained 4-6% of the sex- and age-adjusted height variance, and had limited ability to discriminate tall/short people. . . . In a family-based study of 550 people, with both parents having height measurements, we find that the Galtonian mid-parental prediction method explained 40% of the sex- and age-adjusted height variance, and showed high discriminative accuracy. . . . The message is that the simple approach of predicting child’s height using a regression model given parents’ average height performs much better than the method they have based on combining 54 genes. They also find that, if you start with the prediction based on parents’ heigh
4 0.8965565 1626 andrew gelman stats-2012-12-16-The lamest, grudgingest, non-retraction retraction ever
Introduction: In politics we’re familiar with the non-apology apology (well described in Wikipedia as “a statement that has the form of an apology but does not express the expected contrition”). Here’s the scientific equivalent: the non-retraction retraction. Sanjay Srivastava points to an amusing yet barfable story of a pair of researchers who (inadvertently, I assume) made a data coding error and were eventually moved to issue a correction notice, but even then refused to fully admit their error. As Srivastava puts it, the story “ended up with Lew [Goldberg] and colleagues [Kibeom Lee and Michael Ashton] publishing a comment on an erratum – the only time I’ve ever heard of that happening in a scientific journal.” From the comment on the erratum: In their “erratum and addendum,” Anderson and Ones (this issue) explained that we had brought their attention to the “potential” of a “possible” misalignment and described the results computed from re-aligned data as being based on a “post-ho
Introduction: Wayne Folta points me to “EigenBracket 2012: Using Graph Theory to Predict NCAA March Madness Basketball” and writes, “I [Folta] have got to believe that he’s simply re-invented a statistical method in a graph-ish context, but don’t know enough to judge.” I have not looked in detail at the method being presented here—I’m not much of college basketball fan—but I’d like to use this as an excuse to make one of my favorite general point, which is that a good way to characterize any statistical method is by what information it uses. The basketball ranking method here uses score differentials between teams in the past season. On the plus side, that is better than simply using one-loss records (which (a) discards score differentials and (b) discards information on who played whom). On the minus side, the method appears to be discretizing the scores (thus throwing away information on the exact score differential) and doesn’t use any external information such as external ratings. A
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19 0.85641026 96 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-18-Course proposal: Bayesian and advanced likelihood statistical methods for zombies.
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