andrew_gelman_stats andrew_gelman_stats-2012 andrew_gelman_stats-2012-1243 knowledge-graph by maker-knowledge-mining
Source: html
Introduction: Tyler Cowen points to this interesting article by Vasik Rajlich and Frederic Friedel. I find these sorts of things fun to read, but the horrible thing is that I just get worse and worse as a player. I seem to have lost the ability to automatically filter out the worst moves. Not that I was ever any good, but now I can’t seem to go five moves without making a major blunder. I’m seriously thinking about never leaving any pieces unprotected even for a single move, just so I don’t have to worry about forgetting about them. P.S. Further details here .
sentIndex sentText sentNum sentScore
1 Tyler Cowen points to this interesting article by Vasik Rajlich and Frederic Friedel. [sent-1, score-0.242]
2 I find these sorts of things fun to read, but the horrible thing is that I just get worse and worse as a player. [sent-2, score-1.334]
3 I seem to have lost the ability to automatically filter out the worst moves. [sent-3, score-1.126]
4 Not that I was ever any good, but now I can’t seem to go five moves without making a major blunder. [sent-4, score-1.094]
5 I’m seriously thinking about never leaving any pieces unprotected even for a single move, just so I don’t have to worry about forgetting about them. [sent-5, score-1.391]
wordName wordTfidf (topN-words)
[('worse', 0.296), ('frederic', 0.295), ('forgetting', 0.267), ('leaving', 0.231), ('filter', 0.224), ('moves', 0.224), ('pieces', 0.197), ('worst', 0.195), ('automatically', 0.192), ('lost', 0.18), ('horrible', 0.18), ('cowen', 0.177), ('seem', 0.177), ('tyler', 0.173), ('worry', 0.166), ('five', 0.16), ('seriously', 0.16), ('ability', 0.158), ('fun', 0.147), ('major', 0.145), ('move', 0.141), ('details', 0.133), ('sorts', 0.133), ('single', 0.125), ('ever', 0.119), ('making', 0.103), ('thinking', 0.102), ('never', 0.092), ('without', 0.089), ('points', 0.089), ('read', 0.088), ('interesting', 0.087), ('find', 0.082), ('go', 0.077), ('thing', 0.076), ('things', 0.076), ('article', 0.066), ('good', 0.056), ('even', 0.051), ('get', 0.048)]
simIndex simValue blogId blogTitle
same-blog 1 1.0 1243 andrew gelman stats-2012-04-03-Don’t do the King’s Gambit
Introduction: Tyler Cowen points to this interesting article by Vasik Rajlich and Frederic Friedel. I find these sorts of things fun to read, but the horrible thing is that I just get worse and worse as a player. I seem to have lost the ability to automatically filter out the worst moves. Not that I was ever any good, but now I can’t seem to go five moves without making a major blunder. I’m seriously thinking about never leaving any pieces unprotected even for a single move, just so I don’t have to worry about forgetting about them. P.S. Further details here .
2 0.21560776 1994 andrew gelman stats-2013-08-22-“The comment section is open, but I’m not going to read them”
Introduction: That’s Tyler Cowen’s policy . I read almost all the comments here. I’m glad I read them, I think. Over the years, I’ve learned a lot of interesting things from the comments. Sometimes, though, I wish I hadn’t bothered. Cowen gets about 10 times as many comments as I do, so I think in his case it makes sense to just ignore them. If he read (or, even worse, responded to) them, he’d have no time for anything else.
3 0.13296886 676 andrew gelman stats-2011-04-23-The payoff: $650. The odds: 1 in 500,000.
Introduction: Details here .
4 0.10211645 681 andrew gelman stats-2011-04-26-Worst statistical graphic I have seen this year
Introduction: This gets my vote for the worst statistical graphic I (Phil) have seen this year. If you’ve got a worse one, put a link in the comments. “Credit” for this one goes to “Peter and Maria Hoey (Source: Tommy McCall/Environmental Law Institute).”
5 0.098970905 1473 andrew gelman stats-2012-08-28-Turing chess run update
Introduction: In honor of the Olympics , I got my butt over to the park and played run-around-the-house chess for the first time ever. As was discussed in the comments thread awhile ago , there seem to be three possible ways to play Turing chess: 1. You make your move and run around the house. The other player has to move before you return. Once you sit down to the table, the other player runs around the house. Then you have to move, etc. You lose if you are checkmated or if you fail to move before your opponent returns to his chair. 2. You make your move and run around the house. The other player has to move before you return, but he does not have to wait until you return to start running. He can start running once he’s moved. Then when you get back you have to move before he gets back, but you can start to run once you’ve moved, etc. 3. You make your move and run around the house. The other player takes as long as he wants and makes his move, then he runs. When you return, yo
6 0.089993812 61 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-31-A data visualization manifesto
7 0.088244006 1818 andrew gelman stats-2013-04-22-Goal: Rules for Turing chess
8 0.084068865 528 andrew gelman stats-2011-01-21-Elevator shame is a two-way street
9 0.080982074 232 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-25-Dodging the diplomats
10 0.078552924 743 andrew gelman stats-2011-06-03-An argument that can’t possibly make sense
11 0.077380158 511 andrew gelman stats-2011-01-11-One more time on that ESP study: The problem of overestimates and the shrinkage solution
12 0.077017337 868 andrew gelman stats-2011-08-24-Blogs vs. real journalism
13 0.076034732 185 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-04-Why does anyone support private macroeconomic forecasts?
15 0.072315834 1655 andrew gelman stats-2013-01-05-The statistics software signal
16 0.070090011 682 andrew gelman stats-2011-04-27-“The ultimate left-wing novel”
17 0.069958739 1847 andrew gelman stats-2013-05-08-Of parsing and chess
18 0.069899306 630 andrew gelman stats-2011-03-27-What is an economic “conspiracy theory”?
19 0.069740728 1895 andrew gelman stats-2013-06-12-Peter Thiel is writing another book!
topicId topicWeight
[(0, 0.11), (1, -0.062), (2, -0.026), (3, 0.021), (4, 0.006), (5, -0.044), (6, 0.057), (7, 0.01), (8, 0.05), (9, -0.014), (10, 0.01), (11, -0.002), (12, -0.016), (13, 0.001), (14, -0.009), (15, 0.009), (16, 0.003), (17, -0.003), (18, 0.002), (19, -0.012), (20, 0.01), (21, -0.016), (22, 0.017), (23, 0.03), (24, -0.016), (25, -0.0), (26, -0.001), (27, 0.053), (28, -0.015), (29, -0.029), (30, -0.006), (31, -0.037), (32, 0.019), (33, -0.01), (34, 0.03), (35, 0.005), (36, 0.013), (37, 0.038), (38, 0.027), (39, -0.022), (40, -0.026), (41, 0.029), (42, 0.012), (43, 0.004), (44, -0.007), (45, -0.067), (46, -0.007), (47, 0.017), (48, 0.045), (49, 0.02)]
simIndex simValue blogId blogTitle
same-blog 1 0.96928722 1243 andrew gelman stats-2012-04-03-Don’t do the King’s Gambit
Introduction: Tyler Cowen points to this interesting article by Vasik Rajlich and Frederic Friedel. I find these sorts of things fun to read, but the horrible thing is that I just get worse and worse as a player. I seem to have lost the ability to automatically filter out the worst moves. Not that I was ever any good, but now I can’t seem to go five moves without making a major blunder. I’m seriously thinking about never leaving any pieces unprotected even for a single move, just so I don’t have to worry about forgetting about them. P.S. Further details here .
2 0.79189819 1994 andrew gelman stats-2013-08-22-“The comment section is open, but I’m not going to read them”
Introduction: That’s Tyler Cowen’s policy . I read almost all the comments here. I’m glad I read them, I think. Over the years, I’ve learned a lot of interesting things from the comments. Sometimes, though, I wish I hadn’t bothered. Cowen gets about 10 times as many comments as I do, so I think in his case it makes sense to just ignore them. If he read (or, even worse, responded to) them, he’d have no time for anything else.
Introduction: Our apartment is from earlier in the century, so I can’t give Tyler Cowen’s first answer , but, after that, I follow him in thinking of the several books I have from that decade. Beyond that, lemme think . . . We occasionally play Risk , and our set dates from the 50s. Some kitchen implements (a mixmaster, a couple of cookbooks, who knows which old bowls, forks, etc). Probably some of the furniture, although I don’t know which. Probably some of the items in our building (the boiler?) What else, I wonder? There are probably a few things I’m forgetting. 50-60 years is a long time, I guess. P.S. to the commenters: I’m taking the question to refer to things manufactured in the 1950s and not before!
4 0.70673448 103 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-22-Beach reads, Proust, and income tax
Introduction: The commenting feature doesn’t work for me on Helen DeWitt’s blog so I’m forced to comment on her entries here. 1. She discusses whether it’s fair to characterize The Last Samurai . I have a slightly different perspective on this: I’ve never really understood the idea that a “beach read” should be something light and fluffy. On the beach, you can relax, you have the time to get into anything. I could see wanting something light on the subway–you have to be able to get into it right away and follow it amid all the jostles. I guess the point is that when you’re at the beach, you’re far from the library. So what you really want for the beach is not necessarily something relaxing or easy to read, but rather a sure thing , a known quantity that you’ll definitely enjoy. No point sitting on the beach reading a book that you hate. 2. In an interesting discussion of translation, DeWitt recommends learning a language by reading great literature in the original tongue. Seems f
5 0.69513696 2025 andrew gelman stats-2013-09-15-The it-gets-me-so-angry-I-can’t-deal-with-it threshold
Introduction: I happened to be looking at Slate (I know, I know, but I’d already browsed Gawker and I was desperately avoiding doing real work) and came across this article by Alice Gregory entitled, “I Read Everything Janet Malcolm Ever Published. I’m in awe of her.” I too think Malcolm is an excellent writer, but (a) I’m not happy that she gets off the hook for faking quotes , and (b) I’m really really not happy with her apparent attempt to try to force a mistrial for a convicted killer. I just can’t get over that, for some reason. I can appreciate Picasso’s genius even though he beat his wives or whatever it was he did, I can enjoy the music of Jackson Browne, etc. But for some reason this Malcolm stuff sticks in my craw. There’s no deep meaning to this—I recognize it is a somewhat irrational attitude on my part, I just wanted to share it with you.
6 0.69459897 1446 andrew gelman stats-2012-08-06-“And will pardon Paul Claudel, Pardons him for writing well”
9 0.68665165 189 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-06-Proposal for a moratorium on the use of the words “fashionable” and “trendy”
10 0.68633962 2058 andrew gelman stats-2013-10-11-Gladwell and Chabris, David and Goliath, and science writing as stone soup
11 0.68282771 886 andrew gelman stats-2011-09-02-The new Helen DeWitt novel
12 0.6820246 232 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-25-Dodging the diplomats
13 0.68052441 285 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-18-Fiction is not for tirades? Tell that to Saul Bellow!
14 0.68015033 634 andrew gelman stats-2011-03-29-A.I. is Whatever We Can’t Yet Automate
15 0.6774829 831 andrew gelman stats-2011-07-30-A Wikipedia riddle!
16 0.67621714 197 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-10-The last great essayist?
17 0.67590839 2105 andrew gelman stats-2013-11-18-What’s my Kasparov number?
18 0.67512625 1245 andrew gelman stats-2012-04-03-Redundancy and efficiency: In praise of Penn Station
19 0.6748153 727 andrew gelman stats-2011-05-23-My new writing strategy
20 0.67305803 1930 andrew gelman stats-2013-07-09-Symposium Magazine
topicId topicWeight
[(16, 0.162), (24, 0.084), (55, 0.232), (95, 0.025), (99, 0.357)]
simIndex simValue blogId blogTitle
1 0.97044444 997 andrew gelman stats-2011-11-07-My contribution to the discussion on “Should voting be mandatory?”
Introduction: My short answer (based on the research of Leighley and Nagler): Whether or not mandatory voting is a good idea, I think it’s unlikely to happen at a national level. Even setting aside the practical difficulties of taking a now-voluntary action and making it compulsory, bringing in the other half of the potential electorate would change the political conversation so much that it’s hard for me to see current officeholders supporting such a plan. For the full story, see here .
2 0.9516077 333 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-10-Psychiatric drugs and the reduction in crime
Introduction: Cameron McKenzie writes: I ran into the attached paper [by Dave Marcotte and Sara Markowitz] on the social benefits of prescription of psychotropic drugs, relating a drop in crime rate to an increase in psychiatric drug prescriptions. It’s not my area (which is psychophysics) but I do find this kind of thing interesting. Either people know much more than I think they do, or they are pretending to, and either is interesting. My feeling is that it doesn’t pass the sniff test, but I wondered if you might (i) find the paper interesting and/or (ii) perhaps be interested in commenting on it on the blog. It seems to me that if we cumulated all econometric studies of crime rate we would be able to explain well over 100% of the variation therein, but perhaps my skepticism is unwarranted. My reply: I know what you mean. The story seems plausible but the statistical analysis seems like a stretch. I appreciate that the authors included scatterplots of their data, but the patterns they
3 0.94439888 688 andrew gelman stats-2011-04-30-Why it’s so relaxing to think about social issues
Introduction: I was invited by the Columbia University residence halls to speak at an event on gay marriage. (I’ve assisted my colleagues Jeff Lax and Justin Phillips in their research on the topic.) The event sounded fun–unfortunately I’ll be out of town that weekend so can’t make it–but it got me thinking about how gay marriage and other social issues are so relaxing to think about because there’s no need for doubt. About half of Americans support same-sex marriage and about half oppose it. And the funny thing is, you can be absolutely certain in your conviction, from either direction. If you support, it’s a simple matter of human rights, and it’s a bit ridiculous to suppose that if gay marriage is allowed, it will somehow wreck all the straight marriages out there. Conversely, you can oppose on the clear rationale of wanting to keep marriage the same as it’s always been, and suggest that same-sex couples can be free to get together outside of marriage, as they always could. (Hey, it was g
same-blog 4 0.93747383 1243 andrew gelman stats-2012-04-03-Don’t do the King’s Gambit
Introduction: Tyler Cowen points to this interesting article by Vasik Rajlich and Frederic Friedel. I find these sorts of things fun to read, but the horrible thing is that I just get worse and worse as a player. I seem to have lost the ability to automatically filter out the worst moves. Not that I was ever any good, but now I can’t seem to go five moves without making a major blunder. I’m seriously thinking about never leaving any pieces unprotected even for a single move, just so I don’t have to worry about forgetting about them. P.S. Further details here .
5 0.935215 1463 andrew gelman stats-2012-08-19-It is difficult to convey intonation in typed speech
Introduction: I just wanted to add the above comment to Bob’s notes on language. Spoken (and, to some extent, handwritten) language can be much more expressive than the typed version. I’m not just talking about slang or words such as baaaaad; I’m also talking about pauses that give logical structure to a sentence. For example, sentences such as “The girl who hit the ball where the dog used to be was the one who was climbing the tree when the dog came by” are effortless to understand in speech but can be difficult for a reader to follow. Often when I write, I need to untangle my sentences to keep them readable.
6 0.93410742 168 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-28-Colorless green, and clueless
7 0.92946106 874 andrew gelman stats-2011-08-27-What’s “the definition of a professional career”?
8 0.92649996 1617 andrew gelman stats-2012-12-11-Math Talks :: Action Movies
9 0.92639399 269 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-10-R vs. Stata, or, Different ways to estimate multilevel models
10 0.92072988 1299 andrew gelman stats-2012-05-04-Models, assumptions, and data summaries
11 0.91340709 50 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-25-Looking for Sister Right
12 0.91284531 1896 andrew gelman stats-2013-06-13-Against the myth of the heroic visualization
13 0.90816832 201 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-12-Are all rich people now liberals?
14 0.90671718 620 andrew gelman stats-2011-03-19-Online James?
15 0.90351355 2019 andrew gelman stats-2013-09-12-Recently in the sister blog
16 0.8976661 1406 andrew gelman stats-2012-07-05-Xiao-Li Meng and Xianchao Xie rethink asymptotics
17 0.89312017 2186 andrew gelman stats-2014-01-26-Infoviz on top of stat graphic on top of spreadsheet
18 0.88384199 1520 andrew gelman stats-2012-10-03-Advice that’s so eminently sensible but so difficult to follow
19 0.88110602 377 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-28-The incoming moderate Republican congressmembers
20 0.87879843 706 andrew gelman stats-2011-05-11-The happiness gene: My bottom line (for now)