andrew_gelman_stats andrew_gelman_stats-2012 andrew_gelman_stats-2012-1326 knowledge-graph by maker-knowledge-mining
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Introduction: 7. Which of the following statements accurately summarize claims made by Page and Shapiro in The Rational Public and their associated research articles? (Indicate all that apply.) (a) Americans’ attitudes on policy alternatives are highly unstable over time, reflecting a rational response to unstable political conditions. (b) When studying public opinion, question-wording is less important than scholars have traditionally thought. (c) Attitudes about foreign policy change more abruptly than attitudes on domestic issues. (d) The contents of the mass media account for a high proportion of opinion changes on foreign policy. (e) Using the assumption of rationality, Page and Shapiro fit a hedonic regression to estimate the underlying utility function of survey respondents. (f) Page and Shapiro use the term “rational” ironically; their fundamental claim is that Americans are easily distracted and that rational-public models are seriously flawed. Solution to question 6 From
sentIndex sentText sentNum sentScore
1 Which of the following statements accurately summarize claims made by Page and Shapiro in The Rational Public and their associated research articles? [sent-2, score-0.325]
2 ) (a) Americans’ attitudes on policy alternatives are highly unstable over time, reflecting a rational response to unstable political conditions. [sent-4, score-1.262]
3 (b) When studying public opinion, question-wording is less important than scholars have traditionally thought. [sent-5, score-0.353]
4 (c) Attitudes about foreign policy change more abruptly than attitudes on domestic issues. [sent-6, score-0.794]
5 (d) The contents of the mass media account for a high proportion of opinion changes on foreign policy. [sent-7, score-0.89]
6 (e) Using the assumption of rationality, Page and Shapiro fit a hedonic regression to estimate the underlying utility function of survey respondents. [sent-8, score-0.538]
7 (f) Page and Shapiro use the term “rational” ironically; their fundamental claim is that Americans are easily distracted and that rational-public models are seriously flawed. [sent-9, score-0.329]
8 Solution to question 6 From yesterday : 6. [sent-10, score-0.073]
9 A survey of New York City residents is performed using cluster sampling. [sent-11, score-0.449]
10 From the survey, the estimated proportion who prefer the Mets to the Yankees is 0. [sent-14, score-0.16]
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same-blog 1 0.99999988 1326 andrew gelman stats-2012-05-17-Question 7 of my final exam for Design and Analysis of Sample Surveys
Introduction: 7. Which of the following statements accurately summarize claims made by Page and Shapiro in The Rational Public and their associated research articles? (Indicate all that apply.) (a) Americans’ attitudes on policy alternatives are highly unstable over time, reflecting a rational response to unstable political conditions. (b) When studying public opinion, question-wording is less important than scholars have traditionally thought. (c) Attitudes about foreign policy change more abruptly than attitudes on domestic issues. (d) The contents of the mass media account for a high proportion of opinion changes on foreign policy. (e) Using the assumption of rationality, Page and Shapiro fit a hedonic regression to estimate the underlying utility function of survey respondents. (f) Page and Shapiro use the term “rational” ironically; their fundamental claim is that Americans are easily distracted and that rational-public models are seriously flawed. Solution to question 6 From
2 0.69591922 1328 andrew gelman stats-2012-05-18-Question 8 of my final exam for Design and Analysis of Sample Surveys
Introduction: 8. Which of the following statements accurately characterize the National Election Studies? (Indicate all that apply.) (a) The NES began in 1960. (b) Since 1980, the NES has mostly relied on telephone interviews. (c) The NES typically has a sample size of about 1000–2000 people. (d) The NES uses a sampling design that ensures they get respondents from all fifty states and D.C. Solution to question 7 From yesterday : 7. Which of the following statements accurately summarize claims made by Page and Shapiro in The Rational Public and their associated research articles? (Indicate all that apply.) (a) Americans’ attitudes on policy alternatives are highly unstable over time, reflecting a rational response to unstable political conditions. (b) When studying public opinion, question-wording is less important than scholars have traditionally thought. (c) Attitudes about foreign policy change more abruptly than attitudes on domestic issues. (d) The contents of the mass
3 0.29506236 1333 andrew gelman stats-2012-05-20-Question 10 of my final exam for Design and Analysis of Sample Surveys
Introduction: 10. Out of a random sample of 100 Americans, zero report having ever held political office. From this information, give a 95% confidence interval for the proportion of Americans who have ever held political office. Solution to question 9 From yesterday : 9. Out of a population of 100 medical records, 40 are randomly sampled and then audited. 10 out of the 40 audits reveal fraud. From this information, give an estimate, standard error, and 95% confidence interval for the proportion of audits in the population with fraud. Solution: estimate is p.hat=10/40=0.25. Se is sqrt(1-f)*sqrt(p.hat*(1-.hat)/n)=sqrt(1-0.4)*sqrt(0.25*0.75/40)=0.053. 95% interval is [0.25 +/- 2*0.053] = [0.14,0.36].
4 0.2448379 1361 andrew gelman stats-2012-06-02-Question 23 of my final exam for Design and Analysis of Sample Surveys
Introduction: 23. Suppose you are conducting a survey in which people are asked about their health behaviors (how often they wash their hands, how often they go to the doctor, etc.). There is a concern that different interviewers will get different sorts of responses—that is, there may be important interviewer effects. Describe (in two sentences) how you could estimate the interviewer effects within your survey. Can the interviewer effects create problems of reliability of the survey responses? Explain (in one sentence). Can the interviewer effects create problems of validity of the survey responses? Explain (in one sentence). Solution to question 22 From yesterday : 22. A supermarket chain has 100 equally-sized stores. It is desired to estimate the proportion of vegetables that spoil before being sold. Three stores are selected at random and are checked: the percent of spoiled vegetables are 3%, 5%, and 10% in the three stores. Give an estimate and standard error for the percentage of spo
5 0.23238871 1323 andrew gelman stats-2012-05-16-Question 6 of my final exam for Design and Analysis of Sample Surveys
Introduction: 6. A survey of New York City residents is performed using cluster sampling. The design effect is 3.0. From the survey, the estimated proportion who prefer the Mets to the Yankees is 0.42 with a standard error of 0.05. How many people were in the sample? Solution to question 5 From yesterday : 5. Which of the following better describes changes in public opinion on most issues? (Choose only one.) (a) Dynamic stability: On any given issue, average opinion remains stable but liberals and conservatives move back and forth in opposite directions (the “accordion model”) (b) Uniform swing: Average opinion on an issue can move but the liberals and conservatives don’t move much relative to each other (the disribution of opinions is a “solid block of wood”) (c) Compensating tradeoffs: When considering multiple survey questions on the same general topic, average opinion can move sharply to the left or right on individual questions while the average over all the questions remains st
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same-blog 1 0.98909998 1326 andrew gelman stats-2012-05-17-Question 7 of my final exam for Design and Analysis of Sample Surveys
Introduction: 7. Which of the following statements accurately summarize claims made by Page and Shapiro in The Rational Public and their associated research articles? (Indicate all that apply.) (a) Americans’ attitudes on policy alternatives are highly unstable over time, reflecting a rational response to unstable political conditions. (b) When studying public opinion, question-wording is less important than scholars have traditionally thought. (c) Attitudes about foreign policy change more abruptly than attitudes on domestic issues. (d) The contents of the mass media account for a high proportion of opinion changes on foreign policy. (e) Using the assumption of rationality, Page and Shapiro fit a hedonic regression to estimate the underlying utility function of survey respondents. (f) Page and Shapiro use the term “rational” ironically; their fundamental claim is that Americans are easily distracted and that rational-public models are seriously flawed. Solution to question 6 From
2 0.95727211 1328 andrew gelman stats-2012-05-18-Question 8 of my final exam for Design and Analysis of Sample Surveys
Introduction: 8. Which of the following statements accurately characterize the National Election Studies? (Indicate all that apply.) (a) The NES began in 1960. (b) Since 1980, the NES has mostly relied on telephone interviews. (c) The NES typically has a sample size of about 1000–2000 people. (d) The NES uses a sampling design that ensures they get respondents from all fifty states and D.C. Solution to question 7 From yesterday : 7. Which of the following statements accurately summarize claims made by Page and Shapiro in The Rational Public and their associated research articles? (Indicate all that apply.) (a) Americans’ attitudes on policy alternatives are highly unstable over time, reflecting a rational response to unstable political conditions. (b) When studying public opinion, question-wording is less important than scholars have traditionally thought. (c) Attitudes about foreign policy change more abruptly than attitudes on domestic issues. (d) The contents of the mass
3 0.7328583 1358 andrew gelman stats-2012-06-01-Question 22 of my final exam for Design and Analysis of Sample Surveys
Introduction: 22. A supermarket chain has 100 equally-sized stores. It is desired to estimate the proportion of vegetables that spoil before being sold. Three stores are selected at random and are checked: the percent of spoiled vegetables are 3%, 5%, and 10% in the three stores. Give an estimate and standard error for the percentage of spoiled vegetables for the entire chain. Solution to question 21 From yesterday : 21. A country is divided into three regions with populations of 2 million, 2 million, and 0.5 million, respectively. A survey is done asking about foreign policy opinions. Somebody proposes taking a sample of 50 people from each reason. Give a reason why this non-proportional sample would not usually be done, and also a reason why it might actually be a good idea. Solution: Nonproportional sampling is usually avoided because it makes the analysis more complicated and it results in a higher standard error for estimates of the general population. It might be a good idea her
4 0.72123587 1331 andrew gelman stats-2012-05-19-Question 9 of my final exam for Design and Analysis of Sample Surveys
Introduction: 9. Out of a population of 100 medical records, 40 are randomly sampled and then audited. 10 out of the 40 audits reveal fraud. From this information, give an estimate, standard error, and 95% confidence interval for the proportion of audits in the population with fraud. Solution to question 8 From yesterday : 8. Which of the following statements accurately characterize the National Election Studies? (Indicate all that apply.) (a) The NES began in 1960. (b) Since 1980, the NES has mostly relied on telephone interviews. (c) The NES typically has a sample size of about 1000–2000 people. (d) The NES uses a sampling design that ensures they get respondents from all fifty states and D.C. Solution: c. This is a purely factual question, not much to say here.
5 0.71871006 1361 andrew gelman stats-2012-06-02-Question 23 of my final exam for Design and Analysis of Sample Surveys
Introduction: 23. Suppose you are conducting a survey in which people are asked about their health behaviors (how often they wash their hands, how often they go to the doctor, etc.). There is a concern that different interviewers will get different sorts of responses—that is, there may be important interviewer effects. Describe (in two sentences) how you could estimate the interviewer effects within your survey. Can the interviewer effects create problems of reliability of the survey responses? Explain (in one sentence). Can the interviewer effects create problems of validity of the survey responses? Explain (in one sentence). Solution to question 22 From yesterday : 22. A supermarket chain has 100 equally-sized stores. It is desired to estimate the proportion of vegetables that spoil before being sold. Three stores are selected at random and are checked: the percent of spoiled vegetables are 3%, 5%, and 10% in the three stores. Give an estimate and standard error for the percentage of spo
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same-blog 1 0.9829427 1326 andrew gelman stats-2012-05-17-Question 7 of my final exam for Design and Analysis of Sample Surveys
Introduction: 7. Which of the following statements accurately summarize claims made by Page and Shapiro in The Rational Public and their associated research articles? (Indicate all that apply.) (a) Americans’ attitudes on policy alternatives are highly unstable over time, reflecting a rational response to unstable political conditions. (b) When studying public opinion, question-wording is less important than scholars have traditionally thought. (c) Attitudes about foreign policy change more abruptly than attitudes on domestic issues. (d) The contents of the mass media account for a high proportion of opinion changes on foreign policy. (e) Using the assumption of rationality, Page and Shapiro fit a hedonic regression to estimate the underlying utility function of survey respondents. (f) Page and Shapiro use the term “rational” ironically; their fundamental claim is that Americans are easily distracted and that rational-public models are seriously flawed. Solution to question 6 From
2 0.97100115 1328 andrew gelman stats-2012-05-18-Question 8 of my final exam for Design and Analysis of Sample Surveys
Introduction: 8. Which of the following statements accurately characterize the National Election Studies? (Indicate all that apply.) (a) The NES began in 1960. (b) Since 1980, the NES has mostly relied on telephone interviews. (c) The NES typically has a sample size of about 1000–2000 people. (d) The NES uses a sampling design that ensures they get respondents from all fifty states and D.C. Solution to question 7 From yesterday : 7. Which of the following statements accurately summarize claims made by Page and Shapiro in The Rational Public and their associated research articles? (Indicate all that apply.) (a) Americans’ attitudes on policy alternatives are highly unstable over time, reflecting a rational response to unstable political conditions. (b) When studying public opinion, question-wording is less important than scholars have traditionally thought. (c) Attitudes about foreign policy change more abruptly than attitudes on domestic issues. (d) The contents of the mass
Introduction: Denis Cote writes: Just read this today and my unsophisticated statistical mind is confused. “Initial bivariate analyses suggest that union membership is actually associated with worse health. This association disappears when controlling for demographics, then reverses and becomes significant when controlling for labor market characteristics.” From my education about statistics, I remember to be suspicious about multiple regression coefficients that are in the opposite direction of the bivariate coefficients. What I am missing? I vaguely remember something about the suppression effect. My reply: There’s a long literature on this from many decades ago. My general feeling about such situations is that, when the coefficient changes a lot after controlling for other variables, it is important to visualize this change, to understand what is the interaction among variables that is associated with the change in the coefficients. This is what we did in our Red State Blue State
Introduction: Uberbloggers Andrew Sullivan and Matthew Yglesias were kind enough to link to my five-year-old post with graphs from Red State Blue State on time trends of average income by state. Here are the graphs : Yglesias’s take-home point: There isn’t that much change over time in states’ economic well-being. All things considered the best predictor of how rich a state was in 2000 was simply how rich it was in 1929…. Massachusetts and Connecticut have always been rich and Arkansas and Mississippi have always been poor. I’d like to point to a different feature of the graphs, which is that, although the rankings of the states haven’t changed much (as can be seen from the “2000 compared to 1929″ scale), the relative values of the incomes have converged quite a bit—at least, they converged from about 1930 to 1980 before hitting some level of stability. And the rankings have changed a bit. My impression (without checking the numbers) is that New York and Connecticut were
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