andrew_gelman_stats andrew_gelman_stats-2012 andrew_gelman_stats-2012-1328 knowledge-graph by maker-knowledge-mining
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Introduction: 8. Which of the following statements accurately characterize the National Election Studies? (Indicate all that apply.) (a) The NES began in 1960. (b) Since 1980, the NES has mostly relied on telephone interviews. (c) The NES typically has a sample size of about 1000–2000 people. (d) The NES uses a sampling design that ensures they get respondents from all fifty states and D.C. Solution to question 7 From yesterday : 7. Which of the following statements accurately summarize claims made by Page and Shapiro in The Rational Public and their associated research articles? (Indicate all that apply.) (a) Americans’ attitudes on policy alternatives are highly unstable over time, reflecting a rational response to unstable political conditions. (b) When studying public opinion, question-wording is less important than scholars have traditionally thought. (c) Attitudes about foreign policy change more abruptly than attitudes on domestic issues. (d) The contents of the mass
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1 Which of the following statements accurately characterize the National Election Studies? [sent-2, score-0.457]
2 (b) Since 1980, the NES has mostly relied on telephone interviews. [sent-5, score-0.259]
3 (d) The NES uses a sampling design that ensures they get respondents from all fifty states and D. [sent-7, score-0.342]
4 Solution to question 7 From yesterday : 7. [sent-9, score-0.065]
5 Which of the following statements accurately summarize claims made by Page and Shapiro in The Rational Public and their associated research articles? [sent-10, score-0.452]
6 ) (a) Americans’ attitudes on policy alternatives are highly unstable over time, reflecting a rational response to unstable political conditions. [sent-12, score-1.134]
7 (b) When studying public opinion, question-wording is less important than scholars have traditionally thought. [sent-13, score-0.318]
8 (c) Attitudes about foreign policy change more abruptly than attitudes on domestic issues. [sent-14, score-0.714]
9 (d) The contents of the mass media account for a high proportion of opinion changes on foreign policy. [sent-15, score-0.669]
10 (e) Using the assumption of rationality, Page and Shapiro fit a hedonic regression to estimate the underlying utility function of survey respondents. [sent-16, score-0.282]
11 (f) Page and Shapiro use the term “rational” ironically; their fundamental claim is that Americans are easily distracted and that rational-public models are seriously flawed. [sent-17, score-0.296]
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same-blog 1 0.99999988 1328 andrew gelman stats-2012-05-18-Question 8 of my final exam for Design and Analysis of Sample Surveys
Introduction: 8. Which of the following statements accurately characterize the National Election Studies? (Indicate all that apply.) (a) The NES began in 1960. (b) Since 1980, the NES has mostly relied on telephone interviews. (c) The NES typically has a sample size of about 1000–2000 people. (d) The NES uses a sampling design that ensures they get respondents from all fifty states and D.C. Solution to question 7 From yesterday : 7. Which of the following statements accurately summarize claims made by Page and Shapiro in The Rational Public and their associated research articles? (Indicate all that apply.) (a) Americans’ attitudes on policy alternatives are highly unstable over time, reflecting a rational response to unstable political conditions. (b) When studying public opinion, question-wording is less important than scholars have traditionally thought. (c) Attitudes about foreign policy change more abruptly than attitudes on domestic issues. (d) The contents of the mass
2 0.69591922 1326 andrew gelman stats-2012-05-17-Question 7 of my final exam for Design and Analysis of Sample Surveys
Introduction: 7. Which of the following statements accurately summarize claims made by Page and Shapiro in The Rational Public and their associated research articles? (Indicate all that apply.) (a) Americans’ attitudes on policy alternatives are highly unstable over time, reflecting a rational response to unstable political conditions. (b) When studying public opinion, question-wording is less important than scholars have traditionally thought. (c) Attitudes about foreign policy change more abruptly than attitudes on domestic issues. (d) The contents of the mass media account for a high proportion of opinion changes on foreign policy. (e) Using the assumption of rationality, Page and Shapiro fit a hedonic regression to estimate the underlying utility function of survey respondents. (f) Page and Shapiro use the term “rational” ironically; their fundamental claim is that Americans are easily distracted and that rational-public models are seriously flawed. Solution to question 6 From
3 0.55998355 1331 andrew gelman stats-2012-05-19-Question 9 of my final exam for Design and Analysis of Sample Surveys
Introduction: 9. Out of a population of 100 medical records, 40 are randomly sampled and then audited. 10 out of the 40 audits reveal fraud. From this information, give an estimate, standard error, and 95% confidence interval for the proportion of audits in the population with fraud. Solution to question 8 From yesterday : 8. Which of the following statements accurately characterize the National Election Studies? (Indicate all that apply.) (a) The NES began in 1960. (b) Since 1980, the NES has mostly relied on telephone interviews. (c) The NES typically has a sample size of about 1000–2000 people. (d) The NES uses a sampling design that ensures they get respondents from all fifty states and D.C. Solution: c. This is a purely factual question, not much to say here.
4 0.1645847 692 andrew gelman stats-2011-05-03-“Rationality” reinforces, does not compete with, other models of behavior
Introduction: John Sides followed up on a discussion of his earlier claim that political independents vote for president in a reasonable way based on economic performance. John’s original post led to the amazing claim by New Republic writer Jonathan Chait that John wouldn’t “even want to be friends with anybody who” voted in this manner. I’ve been sensitive to discussions of rationality and voting ever since Aaron Edlin, Noah Kaplan, and I wrote our article on voting as a rational choice: why and how people vote to improve the well-being of others. Models of rationality are controversial In politics, just as they are in other fields ranging from economics to criminology. On one side you have people trying to argue that all behavior is rational, from lottery playing to drug addiction to engaging in email with exiled Nigerian royalty. Probably the only behavior that nobody has yet to claim is rational is blogging, but I bet that’s coming too. From the other direction, lots of people poi
5 0.15036541 921 andrew gelman stats-2011-09-23-That odd couple, “subjectivity” and “rationality”
Introduction: Nowadays “Bayesian” is often taken to be a synonym for rationality, and I can see how this can irritate thoughtful philosophers and statisticians alike: To start with, lots of rational thinking—even lots of rational statistical inference—does not occur within the Bayesian formalism. And, to look at it from the other direction, lots of self-proclaimed Bayesian inference hardly seems rational at all. And in what way is “subjective probability” a model for rational scientific inquiry? On the contrary, subjectivity and rationality are in many ways opposites! [emphasis added] The goal of this paper is to break the link between Bayesian modeling (good, in my opinion) and subjectivity (bad). From this perspective, the irritation of falsificationists regarding exaggerated claims of Bayesian rationality are my ally. . . . See here for the full article, to appear in the journal Rationality, Markets and Morals.
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Introduction: 8. Which of the following statements accurately characterize the National Election Studies? (Indicate all that apply.) (a) The NES began in 1960. (b) Since 1980, the NES has mostly relied on telephone interviews. (c) The NES typically has a sample size of about 1000–2000 people. (d) The NES uses a sampling design that ensures they get respondents from all fifty states and D.C. Solution to question 7 From yesterday : 7. Which of the following statements accurately summarize claims made by Page and Shapiro in The Rational Public and their associated research articles? (Indicate all that apply.) (a) Americans’ attitudes on policy alternatives are highly unstable over time, reflecting a rational response to unstable political conditions. (b) When studying public opinion, question-wording is less important than scholars have traditionally thought. (c) Attitudes about foreign policy change more abruptly than attitudes on domestic issues. (d) The contents of the mass
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Introduction: 7. Which of the following statements accurately summarize claims made by Page and Shapiro in The Rational Public and their associated research articles? (Indicate all that apply.) (a) Americans’ attitudes on policy alternatives are highly unstable over time, reflecting a rational response to unstable political conditions. (b) When studying public opinion, question-wording is less important than scholars have traditionally thought. (c) Attitudes about foreign policy change more abruptly than attitudes on domestic issues. (d) The contents of the mass media account for a high proportion of opinion changes on foreign policy. (e) Using the assumption of rationality, Page and Shapiro fit a hedonic regression to estimate the underlying utility function of survey respondents. (f) Page and Shapiro use the term “rational” ironically; their fundamental claim is that Americans are easily distracted and that rational-public models are seriously flawed. Solution to question 6 From
3 0.67045087 1331 andrew gelman stats-2012-05-19-Question 9 of my final exam for Design and Analysis of Sample Surveys
Introduction: 9. Out of a population of 100 medical records, 40 are randomly sampled and then audited. 10 out of the 40 audits reveal fraud. From this information, give an estimate, standard error, and 95% confidence interval for the proportion of audits in the population with fraud. Solution to question 8 From yesterday : 8. Which of the following statements accurately characterize the National Election Studies? (Indicate all that apply.) (a) The NES began in 1960. (b) Since 1980, the NES has mostly relied on telephone interviews. (c) The NES typically has a sample size of about 1000–2000 people. (d) The NES uses a sampling design that ensures they get respondents from all fifty states and D.C. Solution: c. This is a purely factual question, not much to say here.
4 0.66768128 1356 andrew gelman stats-2012-05-31-Question 21 of my final exam for Design and Analysis of Sample Surveys
Introduction: 21. A country is divided into three regions with populations of 2 million, 2 million, and 0.5 million, respectively. A survey is done asking about foreign policy opinions.. Somebody proposes taking a sample of 50 people from each reason. Give a reason why this non-proportional sample would not usually be done, and also a reason why it might actually be a good idea. Solution to question 20 From yesterday : 20. Explain in two sentences why we expect survey respondents to be honest about vote preferences but possibly dishonest about reporting unhealty behaviors. Solution: Respondents tend to be sincere about vote preferences because this affects the outcome of the poll, and people are motivated to have their candidate poll well. This motivation is typically not present in reporting behaviors; you have no particular reason for wanting to affect the average survey response.
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Introduction: 22. A supermarket chain has 100 equally-sized stores. It is desired to estimate the proportion of vegetables that spoil before being sold. Three stores are selected at random and are checked: the percent of spoiled vegetables are 3%, 5%, and 10% in the three stores. Give an estimate and standard error for the percentage of spoiled vegetables for the entire chain. Solution to question 21 From yesterday : 21. A country is divided into three regions with populations of 2 million, 2 million, and 0.5 million, respectively. A survey is done asking about foreign policy opinions. Somebody proposes taking a sample of 50 people from each reason. Give a reason why this non-proportional sample would not usually be done, and also a reason why it might actually be a good idea. Solution: Nonproportional sampling is usually avoided because it makes the analysis more complicated and it results in a higher standard error for estimates of the general population. It might be a good idea her
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Introduction: Uberbloggers Andrew Sullivan and Matthew Yglesias were kind enough to link to my five-year-old post with graphs from Red State Blue State on time trends of average income by state. Here are the graphs : Yglesias’s take-home point: There isn’t that much change over time in states’ economic well-being. All things considered the best predictor of how rich a state was in 2000 was simply how rich it was in 1929…. Massachusetts and Connecticut have always been rich and Arkansas and Mississippi have always been poor. I’d like to point to a different feature of the graphs, which is that, although the rankings of the states haven’t changed much (as can be seen from the “2000 compared to 1929″ scale), the relative values of the incomes have converged quite a bit—at least, they converged from about 1930 to 1980 before hitting some level of stability. And the rankings have changed a bit. My impression (without checking the numbers) is that New York and Connecticut were
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Introduction: 8. Which of the following statements accurately characterize the National Election Studies? (Indicate all that apply.) (a) The NES began in 1960. (b) Since 1980, the NES has mostly relied on telephone interviews. (c) The NES typically has a sample size of about 1000–2000 people. (d) The NES uses a sampling design that ensures they get respondents from all fifty states and D.C. Solution to question 7 From yesterday : 7. Which of the following statements accurately summarize claims made by Page and Shapiro in The Rational Public and their associated research articles? (Indicate all that apply.) (a) Americans’ attitudes on policy alternatives are highly unstable over time, reflecting a rational response to unstable political conditions. (b) When studying public opinion, question-wording is less important than scholars have traditionally thought. (c) Attitudes about foreign policy change more abruptly than attitudes on domestic issues. (d) The contents of the mass
Introduction: Denis Cote writes: Just read this today and my unsophisticated statistical mind is confused. “Initial bivariate analyses suggest that union membership is actually associated with worse health. This association disappears when controlling for demographics, then reverses and becomes significant when controlling for labor market characteristics.” From my education about statistics, I remember to be suspicious about multiple regression coefficients that are in the opposite direction of the bivariate coefficients. What I am missing? I vaguely remember something about the suppression effect. My reply: There’s a long literature on this from many decades ago. My general feeling about such situations is that, when the coefficient changes a lot after controlling for other variables, it is important to visualize this change, to understand what is the interaction among variables that is associated with the change in the coefficients. This is what we did in our Red State Blue State
4 0.93002164 1044 andrew gelman stats-2011-12-06-The K Foundation burns Cosma’s turkey
Introduction: Shalizi delivers a slow, drawn-out illustration of the point that economic efficiency is all about who’s got the $, which isn’t always related to what we would usually call “efficiency” in other settings. (His point is related to my argument that the phrase “willingness to pay” should generally be replaced by “ability to pay.”) The basic story is simple: Good guy needs a turkey, bad guy wants a turkey. Bad guy is willing and able to pay more for the turkey than good guy can afford, hence good guy starves to death. The counterargument is that a market in turkeys will motivate producers to breed more turkeys, ultimately saturating the bad guys’ desires and leaving surplus turkeys for the good guys at a reasonable price. I’m sure there’s a counter-counterargument too, but I don’t want to go there. But what really amused me about Cosma’s essay was how he scrambled the usual cultural/political associations. (I assume he did this on purpose.) In the standard version of t
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