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1166 andrew gelman stats-2012-02-13-Recently in the sister blog


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Introduction: Lingsanity! What the sophisticates thought in September 2008 Political opinions of U.S. military The origin of essentialist reasoning


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Introduction: Lingsanity! What the sophisticates thought in September 2008 Political opinions of U.S. military The origin of essentialist reasoning

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Introduction: In his new book, “What is Your Race? The Census and Our Flawed Efforts to Classify Americans,” former Census Bureau director Ken Prewitt recommends taking the race question off the decennial census: He recommends gradual changes, integrating the race and national origin questions while improving both. In particular, he would replace the main “race” question by a “race or origin” question, with the instruction to “Mark one or more” of the following boxes: “White,” “Black, African Am., or Negro,” “Hispanic, Latino, or Spanish origin,” “American Indian or Alaska Native,” “Asian”, “Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander,” and “Some other race or origin.” Then the next question is to write in “specific race, origin, or enrolled or principal tribe.” Prewitt writes: His suggestion is to go with these questions in 2020 and 2030, then in 2040 “drop the race question and use only the national origin question.” He’s also relying on the American Community Survey to gather a lo

3 0.20284316 1705 andrew gelman stats-2013-02-04-Recently in the sister blog

Introduction: I remarked that If you’re havin’ electoral problems I feel bad for you son, I got 538 problems but partisan bias ain’t one , and it got such a strong reaction it caused me to rethink my entire approach to political blogging, so I followed up with, What we’ve got here is failure to communicate . In other news, Paul “I’m not Galbraith” disses Larry “I’m not Krugman” Summers and we ask, What is the middle class? Also, Essentialist reasoning about the biological world .

4 0.18666156 1664 andrew gelman stats-2013-01-10-Recently in the sister blog: Brussels sprouts, ugly graphs, and switched at birth

Introduction: 1. Congress vs. Nickelback: The real action is in the cross tabs : Conservatives are mean, liberals are big babies, and, if supporting an STD is what it takes to be a political moderate, I don’t want to be one. 2. How 2012 stacks up: The worst graph on record? : OK, not actually worse than this one . 3. Boys will be boys; cows will be cows : Children’s essentialist reasoning about gender categories and animal species.

5 0.097826272 1633 andrew gelman stats-2012-12-21-Kahan on Pinker on politics

Introduction: Reacting to my recent post on Steven Pinker’s too-broad (in my opinion) speculations on red and blue states, Dan “cultural cognition” Kahan writes : Pinker is clearly right to note that mass political opinions on seemingly diverse issues cohere, and Andrew, I think, is way too quick to challenge this I [Kahan] could cite to billions of interesting papers, but I’ll just show you what I mean instead. A recent CCP data collection involving a nationally representative on-line sample of 1750 subjects included a module that asked the subjects to indicate on a six-point scale “how strongly . . . you support or oppose” a collection of policies: policy_gun Stricter gun control laws in the United States. policy_healthcare Universal health care. policy_taxcut Raising income taxes for persons in the highest-income tax bracket. policy_affirmative action Affirmative action for minorities. policy_warming Stricter carbon emission standards to reduce global warming. Positions c

6 0.096789852 604 andrew gelman stats-2011-03-08-More on the missing conservative psychology researchers

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2 0.74470806 1 andrew gelman stats-2010-04-22-Political Belief Networks: Socio-cognitive Heterogeneity in American Public Opinion

Introduction: Delia Baldassarri and Amir Goldberg write : Americans’ political beliefs present a long observed paradox. Whereas the mainstream political discourse is structured on a clearly defined polarity between conservative and liberal views, in practice, most people exhibit ideologically incoherent belief patterns. This paper challenges the notion that political beliefs are necessarily defined by a singular ideological continuum. It applies a new, network-based method for detecting heterogeneity in collective patterns of opinion, relational class analysis (RCA), to Americans’ political attitudes as captured by the American National Election Studies. By refraining from making a-priori assumptions about how beliefs are interconnected, RCA looks for opinion structures, belief networks, that are not necessarily congruent with received wisdom. It finds that in the twenty years between 1984 and 2004 Americans’ political attitudes were consistently structured by two alternative belief systems: one

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4 0.67730421 274 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-14-Battle of the Americans: Writer at the American Enterprise Institute disparages the American Political Science Association

Introduction: Steven Hayward at the American Enterprise Institute wrote an article , sure to attract the attention of people such as myself, entitled, “The irrelevance of modern political science,” in which he discusses some silly-sounding papers presented at the recent American Political Science Association and then moves to a larger critique of quantitative political science: I [Hayward] have often taken a random article from the American Political Science Review, which resembles a mathematical journal on most of its pages, and asked students if they can envision this method providing the mathematical formula that will deliver peace in the Middle East. Even the dullest students usually grasp the point without difficulty. At the sister blog, John Sides discusses and dismisses Hayward’s arguments, point on that, among other things, political science might very well be useful even if it doesn’t deliver peace in the Middle East. After all, the U.S. Army didn’t deliver peace in the Midd

5 0.67146105 1664 andrew gelman stats-2013-01-10-Recently in the sister blog: Brussels sprouts, ugly graphs, and switched at birth

Introduction: 1. Congress vs. Nickelback: The real action is in the cross tabs : Conservatives are mean, liberals are big babies, and, if supporting an STD is what it takes to be a political moderate, I don’t want to be one. 2. How 2012 stacks up: The worst graph on record? : OK, not actually worse than this one . 3. Boys will be boys; cows will be cows : Children’s essentialist reasoning about gender categories and animal species.

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Introduction: Malecki’s right, this is very cool indeed. P.S. Is it really true that “4.5 million Parisians” ride the Metro every day? Even setting aside that not all the riders are Parisians, I’m guessing that 4.5 million is the number of rides, not the number of people who ride.

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Introduction: Last year we discussed an important challenge in causal inference: The standard advice (given in many books, including ours) for causal inference is to control for relevant pre-treatment variables as much as possible. But, as Judea Pearl has pointed out, instruments (as in “instrumental variables”) are pre-treatment variables that we would not want to “control for” in a matching or regression sense. At first, this seems like a minor modification, with the new recommendation being to apply instrumental variables estimation using all pre-treatment instruments, and to control for all other pre-treatment variables. But that can’t really work as general advice. What about weak instruments or covariates that have some instrumental aspects? I asked Paul Rosenbaum for his thoughts on the matter, and he wrote the following: In section 18.2 of Design of Observational Studies (DOS), I [Rosenbaum] discuss “seemingly innocuous confounding” defined to be a covariate that predicts a su

4 0.42073625 1720 andrew gelman stats-2013-02-12-That claim that Harvard admissions discriminate in favor of Jews? After seeing the statistics, I don’t see it.

Introduction: A few months ago we discussed Ron Unz’s claim that Jews are massively overrepresented in Ivy League college admissions, not just in comparison to the general population of college-age Americans, but even in comparison to other white kids with comparable academic ability and preparation. Most of Unz’s article concerns admissions of Asian-Americans, and he also has a proposal to admit certain students at random (see my discussion in the link above). In the present post, I concentrate on the statistics about Jewish students, because this is where I have learned that his statistics are particularly suspect, with various numbers being off by factors of 2 or 4 or more. Unz’s article was discussed, largely favorably, by academic bloggers Tyler Cowen , Steve Hsu , and . . . me! Hsu writes: “Don’t miss the statistical supplement.” But a lot of our trust in those statistics seems to be misplaced. Some people have sent me some information showing serious problems with Unz’s methods

5 0.34561521 1563 andrew gelman stats-2012-11-05-Someone is wrong on the internet, part 2

Introduction: My coblogger John Sides feeds a troll. It’s a tough call. Yesterday I gave my reasoning for ignoring these provocateurs, but in this case the troll in question is writing for a major newspaper so it makes sense for John to go to the trouble of shooting him down. Even though I suspect the columnist was trolling for no better reason than . . . he had a deadline and nothing to say so he thought he’d wade into a controversy. On the plus side, as a statistician I’m happy that statistics is considered important enough that it’s worth trolling! When they start attacking like this, they must feel a bit on the defensive. . . .

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